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Here are keyword search results from the Wednesday, June 09, 2010, headline of The New York Times.

"U.N. Security Council Passes New Sanctions Against Iran"

Here is the list of searched books:



             of Broadcasters   63,560,000 
Citigroup, Inc.   62,555,000 
American International Group   61,537,300 
Appendix 
213 
7 
 CompanyorOrganization Amount AltriaGroup $59,575,000 Securities IndustryAssn.
	

                                                                                                                                           FDR's first- 
PRESIDENT OBAMA: WHAT WOULD HE DO? I 17 
term legislative program of 1933-1936, which included the establishment of Social Security, securities regulation, recognition of labor unions, federal 
 intervention in agricultural policy, and a host of other initiatives, was such a time.
	

By the first half of 2007, the total value of mortgage-backed securities had 
1
9
 
242 I FLEECED 
 swollen to $17.2
	

 But what about the middlemen? The brokers and their favored lenders who made bad loans, knowing they were bad, and then sold them on the 
THE SUBPRIME LOAN CRISIS I 249 
secondary mortgage market as mortgage-backed securities and are now comfortably enjoying their fees and commissions? These people have got
 ten away free.
	

As long as they can keep their fees and commissions, why should they care if the loan goes south? They're no longer on the hook, and the risk is absorbed into the vast, amorphous mortgage-backed securities market.
	

                                               The ones who should be responsible for the shady and unpayable mortgages are not only the Wall 
THE SUBPRIME LOAN CRISIS I 255 
Street people who packaged the mortgages and sold shares in them on the securities market but also the brokers and the lenders who conned home

 owners into taking the loan in the first place.
	

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            274
-
77,364 
Schumer, Charles, 187 Schuller, Robert, 59 Schwarz, Fred, 59, 61 Schwarzenegger, Arnold, 185, 231,243, 251, 252, 265, 266, 267, 274, 312, 386 
science, x59
-
6o social, 73
-
74 Scott, Hugh, 70 Scowcroft, Brent, 131, 200 Sermon, Roger, 281 Sebekus, Kathleen, 357 Second Amendment Foundation, 179,
1
80 SecondAmendment Sisters, 280 Securities and Exchange Commission, 144, 306 
security, national, 244, z46-48,267 segregation, 52-54,250,268,387 Senate: 
creation 
oC 
319,321 Democrats in, 57,232 
Republicans in, 57, 198, 231, 232,240,365 Senate Steering Committee, 82 September 
11, 
21, 132, 
1
33, 182,300,385 
Ashcroft on, 336 
G. W. Bush on day of, x99 
G. W Bush's approval ratings after, 231, 246, 356 
Cheney and, 211 
Christian Right and, 186, 214-15 
foreign policy after, 199, 202,203, 2o6,210, 
Simon, Bill (California candidate), 265-66, 267 
Simon, William (treasury secretary), 76 Sister Sourijah, 103 
Skeptical Envimnmentalin, The (Lemberg), r6o skepticism, x3-15,341,353 
Slander: 
LiberalliesAbout tbeAmeriean 
Right (Coulter), 165,286 
Slatter, Ian, 194 
Slaves, 20,316,321,325,328 Smith, Gerald, 51 
Smith, lain Duncan, 335 Smith, Linda, 284 Smith, Michael, 191 
Smith Richardson Foundation, 79 smoking, 302 
Smylie, Robert E., 58 Snow,Tony,163 Snowbarger, Pence, 264 Snowe, Olympia, 175,176, 251, 284 Smarts, Nicholas, 363 
social conservatives, 40, 80-83,132,149,158, 174, 182-85, 252,267 
business conservatives vs., 252, 253 homeschooling and, 191 Religious Right and, 84 
women and, 283, 285-86,x88 
socialism, 43-44,48, 152
-
53, 292, 32-22,323 inAmerica, 43-44,320,32l-z4,327 Fabian Society and, 151,152 
social science, 73-74 
Social Security, 41, 56, x27,140, 245, 246, 255, 269,322,381 
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 o6 `9g-S8 'f9'fS `lay slys!g
	

When these 'subprime' mortgages began to default in large numbers, the home
building boom ended, housing prices fell, financial institutions
banks, investment banks-suffered large losses on securities backed 
6 
The Lost History 
 by mortgages, and the economy tipped into (or teetered on the edge of) another recession.*
	

            Because banks and the few 
37 
THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH 
 surviving S&Ls had limited funds, they-and others-increasingly originated loans but then bundled them into bondlike securities that were sold to pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, college endowments and other big investors.
	

The payments for these securities are deposited in banks and increase the banks' re
 serves.
	

Selling Treasury securities does the opposite; it decreases bank reserves.
	

As noted earlier, when the Fed wants to add to bank reserves, it buys U.S. Treasury securities.
	

                                                             162, 
Capitalism Restored 
Governments in some countries (Japan, China) deliberately rein
vested dollars in U.S. Treasury securities; other governments recy
 cled dollars by allowing private investors (individuals, banks, insurance companies) to invest them abroad.
	

For much of 2008, the Federal Reserve struggled to prevent such a breakdown, as losses on securities backed by so-called 'subprime mortgages' (loans to weaker borrowers) hurt banks and investment banks.
	

Their losses in the 1980s-many S&Ls and banks failed, and others had their lending limited by depleted capital-left a void that was filled by 'securiti
zation': the packaging of mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt and 
196 
Precarious Prosperity 
 other loans into bondlike securities that were sold to institutional investors (insurance companies, pension funds, college endowments, mutual funds).
	

Even in the early 1970s, as writer Martin Mayer has recalled, most major securities firms had 'cages' that handled the physical transfer o£ stock certificates and cash that settled daily trading.
	

Gains came from making loans, trading securities, offering advice.
	

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  O
 
-OBERINVESTOR WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY 
n a Thursday morning in mid-March of 2008, Treasury secretary Henry Paulson called a press conference in Washington to discuss the results of a study done by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which consisted of his agency and three others: the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange 
Commission (SEC), and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission 11 
$'700 BILLION BAILOUT 
 (CFTC).*
	

                                                                                                                      Paulson's former 13 
$700 BILLION BAILOUT 
employer, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, had smartly avoided getting too heavily involved in financing nonbank subprime lenders and secu
 ritizing their mortgages into bonds-also known as mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) or asset-backed securities (ABSs).*
	

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two congressionally chartered mortgage investing giants, put their guarantee (their insurance) on these A paper mortgage bonds, which are called mortgage-backed securities (MBSs).The
	

trillion in debt it owes on all its borrowings, 49 
$'700 BILLION BAILOUT 
 plus being on the hook (if something should go wrong) with Fannie and Freddie, which adds another $5 trillion? You would think that our lenders (investors who buy Treasury securities) would shy away from buying our bonds, which means we'd have to increase the interest rate on them (to entice buyers back).
	

If we pay higher rates of return (higher interest rates) and investors still do not buy our 

82 Taxes and Politics Treasury securities, then the ball game is over. Glass-Steagall prevented banks from owning securities firms and 87 $700 BILLION BAILOUT securities firms from owning depositories. Think for a moment about the losses Citigroup could have avoided if it had not been allowed to underwrite subprime asset-backed securities. Give banks 10 years to divest themselves of their investment banking arms (securities underwriting) and cap their ownership in securi ties firms at 10 percent. The term is used to distinguish these securities from bonds backed by Fannie Mae/Freddie-quality loans. Oil Service Companies Investing For Income Investing For Capital Gains in a Bear Market Gold Mining Mutual Funds Blue Chips: Major Gold Producers and Second-Tier Producers Development Companies Exploration Companies Pure Silver Plays Combination Plays Uranium: Producing Companies Junior Uranium Developments How to Prosper in the Age of the Obomonomics - Uranium Exploration Companies - Copper Mining If you are interested in mining stocks, call Jim Raby at National Securities at 800-431-4488 or 206-343-6225. There are probably a number of reasons, but the one named in the lawsuit is that under the Securities 192 Fallen Giant Laws, until AIG registers the SILO-held shares, SICO cannot pay out to those participants in the deferred compensation program the AIG shares they are due. Greenberg) Bernard Aidinoff, Sullivan and Cromwell Thomas L. Corcoran, Corcoran, Youngman & Rowe Charles Brower, White and Case Richard I. Beattie, Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett Law Firms The Cast of Characters 209 Duncan Lee, Lee, McCarthy & Mulderig Frank Mulderig, Lee, McCarthy & Mulderig Henry Dudley Stanley Lubman (and Kenneth P Morse) Richard Rivers, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld Government Officials and Regulators Eliot Spitzer, attorney general, New York John Mills, insurance superintendent, New York Arthur Levitt, former chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission William J. 'Wild Bill' Donovan, director, Office of Strategic Services Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Khatami, president of Iran Anastazio Somoza, president of Nicaragua Donald Easum, U.S. ambassador to Nigeria Cyrus Vance, secretary of state President Jimmy Carter Robert Strauss, U.S. trade representative Matthew Nimetz, undersecretary of state
Starr Foundation Mary Tweedy, president T C. Hsu, president Florence Davis, president
Insurance Competitors Warren Buffett, chairman, Berkshire Hathaway Ronald Ferguson, president, General Reinsurance Co. Elizabeth Monrad, CFO, Gen Re Robert D. Graham, general counsel, Gen Re Milburn Smith, president, Continental Casualty Victor Hurd, chairman, Continental Insurance Companies 210 The Cast of Characters Council on Foreign Relations Richard B. Haass, president Leslie Gelb, president emeritus Consultants Michael Harrington, president, Irish Insurance Assn. Mansfield ski resort (Vermont), 71-72,150 Mulderig, Frank, 79-80 Munich Re, 87 Murphy, L. Michael, 85-87,166 N Naftali, Timothy, 49 Nationalization of industries, service in trade and, 126-129 National Union Fire Insurance Company of Pittsburgh, 84 New Hampshire Insurance Company, 84 New York Post, 167,196-197 Nicaragua, 120-122 Nigeria, 122-124 Nimetz, Matt, 125 Norte, 41 226 Index
Nottingham, R. Kendall,112 Egyptand,125-126 Iran and, 116-119 Nigeria and, 123 Turkey and, 125 Office o£ Strategic Services (OSS): C.V. Starr & Co. employees and, 93-95 insurance industry and Nazi Germany, 48-50 Shanghai Evening Post and Mercury and, 47-48 Opinsky, Howard, 195 Opus Dei,138 P Pacific Coast Casualty Company, 20 Pacific Mail S.S. Co., 21 Panay, Japanese bombing of, 45-46 Park, Brock, 57 Park, Helen Graham, 57, 73, 74 Pei, I.M., 74 Pei, Tsuyee, 22-23, 74 People's Insurance Company of China (PICC),108-110 Peterson, Pete, 162,165 Philippine America Life Insurance Company, 55-56,102 Philippines, 55-57 PNC Financial Services, 163-164 R Raven, FrankJay 20,21-22,39 Reggio, Lucino, 47 Richmond Insurance Company, 87, 157-158,176 Rivers, Dick, 125 Roberts, John J., 52, 54, 57 Eastern Europe and, 142-143 Egyptand,125-126 in Europe after World War II, 53-54 on Starr, 66, 74 succession issue and, 103-104 Turkey and, 125 Robinson, Jim, 131 Rose, Charlie, 197 Rotary Club of Shanghai, 20 Rubin, Robert, 197 Ruschp, Sepp, 71 Russia, 143 S Saillant, Guy du, 69 'Secret (Insurance) Agent Man, The' (Fritz), 48-49 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 3,163,184-185 Seitz, Clayton, 47 Shabani,K.C.,115-120 G. W Bush and, 38 Clinton and, 11, 95, 96,114,118,119,120,126, 304 European model oQ 9,329 immigrants and, :z4, zoo Latinos and, 240 necconservativesand, 205 religious organizations and, 38,137, 325, 326 Wellington, Duke o1; r72 Wells, H. G.,151,152, 152,327 Wellstone, Paul, 282,358 West, 20,27,40,47,57-59,64,87-88,90,93, 238,264-65,266,321,326,328,332 planned communities in, 351 seealto Sun Belt Western alliance, 389-93,394 West Virginia,177, 235, 236, 268 Weyrich,Paul, 16,r7-18,81-82,c7o,183, 18 4 -8 5,347,3 82 Evangelicals and, 84-85 television show founded by, III White, F. Clifton, 55 White, Theodore H., 56,57 White Citizens' Councils, 250 White House Public Liaison office, 99 white power, 349 Whitewater, ro8,121 white working-class 'ethnics,' 235-37 Whitman, Christine Todd, 182, 182,284 Whitman, Walt, 251 Wick, Charles, 87 Webe, Robert, 386 Wildmon, Don, 184 Will, George, 59, too-5,157,165.223, In some areas, the Iraqi component will be ob vious-a local shaykh acknowledged by all, for instance-in other places it may not be so obvious, and councils of elders or committees of profes- Rebuilding Iraq 407 sionals and notables might be necessary. vvvv-- Chapter 8 vvvvvv- Many Children for Osama NAJWA BIN LADEN In 1988 another girl, Kadhija, was born to Osama's newest wife, Siham. She had recently x68 acquired one of the newest gadgets on the market: a wringer washer machine. 31,223,078 NovartisAG 31,222,729 News Corporation 31,184,000 Bond MarketAssn. Navy (executive offices) Director, Congressional Appropriations Liaison Jackson, Paul News Corporation Lobbyist Federal Communications Legislative/Congressional Commission Affatrs Appendix f 235 Lobbyist Employer-Private/Public Title Jaeger, Lisa M. Bracewell & Giuliani Partner Environmental Protection Agency Deputy General Counsel White House Office Assoc. FLEECED INTRODUCTION FLEECED: Stripped of money or property as a sheep is stripped of fleece; obtained by unfair or unjust means; plundered; de prived of money or belongings by fraud or hoax; swindled FACT: The mainstream media in America is distorting the news to deliber ately downplay terrorism. Testing, the objective measurement and the bearer of bad news, would recede into the background, and all would be well with the teachers' unions again. But the news media have been incredibly effective in lulling us to sleep. rcar+rinr~edJ I business, society columns, and all other news and feature coverage, not just stories about the crisis. HOW THE LIBERAL MEDIA DOWNPLAY TERRORISM I 51 No wonder that a March 2008 We Media/Zogby Poll reported that 'nearly 70 percent of Americans believe traditional journalism is out of touch, and nearly half are turning to the Internet to get their news.' THE JFK BOMB PLOT The single most graphic example of the media's tendency to tamp down coverage of terrorism occurred on June 3, 2007, when The New York 58 I FLEECED Times-again, not just a national newspaper but the most important source of local news for millions of city residents-buried its story chroni ding the arrest of three men plotting to blow up John F. Kennedy Interna tional Airport-and much of Queens-on page A-30, deep inside its pages. But cable news and talk radio, both largely conservative, have evened the 78 I FLEECED playing field. While ABC, NBC, CBS, National Public Radio, PBS, MSNBC, and CNN all skew left, Fox News and talk radio attempt to redress the im balance. And, of course, the combined ratings of the three broadcast TV networks plus CNN, MSNBC, and PBS far out number those of Fox News. Among Burson-Marsteller's other U.S. clients that have been in the news recently: i • Blackwater Group: the hired guns in Iraq. After news reports about the controversial representation, Burson-Marsteller ran screaming from Blackwater, describing it as only a 'temporary' engage ment with no involvement by Penn. Quinn's primary task was to use his influence with the media and government officials to spin Gbagbo's questionable efforts at maintaining democracy, highlight his calls for 'free' elections, and rebut negative news articles about the presi dent, his government, and his wife. 2/22/05 Meeting with Tom Woods, Deputy Secretary of African Affairs, U.S. Department of State 2/23/05 Meeting with Cindy Courville, Special Assistant to the Presi dent and Senior Director for African Affairs, National Security Council 3/19/05 Meeting with Ambassador Aubrey Hooks, U.S. Ambassador to CBte d'lvoire, Abidjan Embassy 3/28/05 Meeting with Polly Trottenberg, Legislative Director, Senator Charles Schumer, U.S. Senate 3/29/05 Meeting with Jeremy Kahn, Reporter, TheNewRepuhlic 4/7/05 Meeting with Andy Olson, Foreign Affairs Legislative Assistant, Senator Bill Frist, U.S. Senate 4/11/05 Meeting with Michael Phelan, African Affairs Staffer, Senator Richard Lugar, U.S. Senate on Foreign Relations Committee 4/11/05 Call with Jeremy Kahn, Reporter, The New Republic 4/11/05 Email-LydiaPolgreen,Reporter, TheNewYork Times 4/15/05 Call with Jeremy Kahn, Reporter, The New Republic 4/18/05 Call with GusConstantine,Reporter, The Washington Times 4/18/05 Call with Jennifer Ludden, Reporter, National Public Radio 4/18/05 Call with Pamela Constable, Africa Desk Editor, The Washington Post 4/18/05 Call with Dinesh Mahtani, Reporter, Financial Times and The Economist THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 149 4/22/05 Call with Gus Constantine, Reporter, The Washington Times 4/22/05 Call with Lydia Polgreen, Reporter, The New York Times 4/25/05 Call with Gus Constantine, Reporter, The Washington Times 4/27/05 Faxed letter to Gus Constantine, Reporter, The Washington Times 4/28/05 Email-Richard Kaminski, Country Officer (Cote d'Ivoire), U.S. Department of State 4/28/05 Email-Richard Kaminski, Country Officer (Cote d'Ivoire), U.S. State Department 5/2/05 Faxed letter to Tom Woods, Deputy Secretary of African Affairs, U.S. Department of State 5/3/05 Phone call with Jennifer Ludden, Reporter, National Public Radio 5/3/05 Phone call with Pamela Constable, Africa Desk Editor, The Wash ington Post 5/4/05 Phone call with Barbara Schoetzau, UN Bureau Chief, Voice of America 5/4/05 Phone call with Peter Heinlein, UN Correspondent, Voice of America 5/4/05 Email-Nico Colombant, Abidjan Correspondent, Voice of America 5/4/05 Email-Damian Fowler, Abidjan Correspondent, BBC News 5/10/05 Voicemail-Mark Silva, International News Correspondent, The Chicago Tribune 5/10/05 Voicemail-Gwen Dillard, VOA Africa Division Director, Voice of America 5/10/05 Phone call with Idrissa Dia, La Voie de L'Amerique Program Director, Voice of America 5/10/05 Phone call with Pamela Constable, Africa Desk Editor, The Wash ington Post 5/11/05 Phone Call with Jeremy Kahn, Journalist, The New Republic 5/10/05 Voicemail-Gus Constantine, Journalist, The Washington Times As it happens, Quinn Gillespie was especially punctilious about its fil ings; as a result, they offer a rare window into how such contracts with for eign governments work, and the services the lobbyists provide. As the San Jose Mercury News has reported, 'even aliens pack Marlboros in Men in Black and Men in Black 77, both of which are rated PG-13.' FROM MOVIE LIGHTS TO LIGHTING UP I 297
15 TEEN-RATED FLICKS THAT SHOW SMOKING The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, Kicking &; Screaming (Disney) the Witch, and the Wardrobe The Legend of Zorro (Disney) (Disney) ; The Sisterhood of the Tra4 The Gospel (Disney) Pants (Sony) The Greatest Game Ever Played Son of the Mask (Tim (Sony) Yours, Mine and Ours The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Zathura (Disney) Galaxy (Touchstone)
A Lot like Love (Disney) An Unfinished Life (Disney) The Bad News' Bears (Viacom) Ion Begins (Time Warner) in Good Company (Universal) In Her Shoes (Fox 2000) In the Mix (Lions Gate) The Interpreter (Universal) Into the Blue (Sony) King Kong (Universal) King's Ransom (Tine Warner) The Longest Yard (Viacorn/Sony) - Lords of Dogtown (Sony) an of the House (Sony) linda and Melinda (Fox Searchlight) Miss Congeniality 2 (Time Warner) arner) D.EB.S. (Sony) Dark Water (Disney) Diary of a Mad Black Woman (Lions Gate) Hazzard (Time Warner) Monster-in-Law( (Viacom) Mr. and Mrs. NOTES I 313 22 'Well, Charlie': 'Transcript: Obama and Clinton Debate,' ABC News, April 16, 2008, htip:llabrnews.go.com/Politics/DemoaaticDebate/story?id=4670271Prpage=l. News &World Report senior writer and coauthor of The Almanac ofAmerican Politics 'In The Right Nation, John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge have produced a bold and impressive analysis of modern American conservatism, one that ben efits greatly from their privileged outsider's view into American politics. Meanwhile, the news from the culture war is mixed. On the night of November 7, 12E • THE RIGHT NATION 2000, Bill Clinton supposedly took particular pleasure in the news that Rogan lost his congressional seat. And as with all conservative subcultures, news spreads quickly about prodigious accomplishments: a family with three homeschooled children at Harvard; a homeschooler with a best-selling novel; first, second and third place in the zooo National Spelling Bee. 350-51 Arafat, Yassey 203, 204, 208-9,340 Aristotle, 74 Arizona, 54, 58, 67,350-51, 357 Arkansas, x77 Armed Services Committee, 364 Armey Dick, 96-97,113,116-17,118 Arnold, Matthew, 354 Arnold, Ron,180,181,182 Arnold, Roseanne,37 Articles of Confederation, 318 Ashcroft,John,143,157,182,194,196,260, 261 - 62,334 - 37,342 diversity and, 387 gun rights and, 178-79 Letwin compared with, 334-36 religiosity of,146 Ashrawi, Henan, 21 Asians,239,243 Assail, Bashes, 223 Assemblies of God, 84 assistedsuicide, 261 atheism, 5 0 AtkasShroWd(Rand), 46,51 ATR (Americans for Tax Reform), 16-17,18, 157 175195 Atwater, Lee, 34, 36, 97 98,104,173,195 Austin, Stephen, 1 35 Australia, 7,307 Austria, 48,350 Baca,JOe,243 Bacall, Lauren, 372 Bakeglames,131, 200 Bakerjim and Tammy Faye, 34 Baldridge, Malcolm, go Baldwin,Alec, 373 Balkans, 201 ballot initiatives, 304 Balz, Dan, x05 bankruptcy laws, 187 Barbour, Haley, 107 Barnes, Fred, 164, 164,281 Barnes, Roy, 196,197 Barone, Michael, 11g,164,165,244 Baroody William, 49,50,76-77 Baroody William,Jz, 77 Barry, Marion, 262 Bartley, Robert, 89, lo7 z18 Bauer, Gary, 184,186 BBC, 222,33S-36,338 Beamer, Todd, 247 Beatty, Warren, 372 Becker, Gary, 157 Becche5 Henry Ward, 2o Beecher, Lyman, 326 Bell, Daniel, 43,72 Bellamy, Francis, 326 Bell Curve, The (Murray), 114-15 Bellow, Saul,156 BeloK Max, 34445 Bennett, Bill, 114,16o,194 Bentsen, Lloyd, 13940,141 Bedusconi,Silvio,338,350 Bernstein,Leonard, 68 Bethea,Rainey,369 Bar,ACBS Insider Exposes How the Media Distort the News (Goldberg), 165 Bin Laden, Osama,163,197, 202, 212, 215, 219, 297 360 biotechnology, 156,252 cloning, 148 49,185,187 stem-cell research, 149,16o,173,198, 228, 308,311 birth control, 28, 33, 65 Black, Conrad,2o6 BlackAlhance for Educational Options (BAEO), 276 Black Panthers, 68 blacks, 52,53,86,103,148,239,241-42, z62-63, 323,330 affirmative action for see affirmative action Christian Coalition and, 186 civil rights for, see civil rights conservative, 270,271-77 crime and, 67 3oo Democratic Party and, 64-65,235,24o, 242, 271, 276,277,325 family and, 73,115, 271 Georgia flag and, 197 Lottand, 25o,262 segregation and, 52-54,250,268,387 welfare and, 114, 114,240 Blackwell, Morton, 195, 281 Blagojevich,Rod, 368 BIairjony 133,150, 209, u6, 221, 223, 335, 337. 292,294,298,301,303-6,310,312,313,315, 327 - 329,331,339,382,394 abortion and, 309, 310, 311, 312 America as viewed in, 21, 24,134,139, 222, 293-95,387 - 93, 394, 395,397 Bush administration as viewed by, 207, zo8, 213 capitalism in, 305-6 Christian Democrats in, u conservatism in,12,13,14,338,339,343,344, 345-461348,353 economiesin,392 foreign policy in, 39-93 hate organizations in, 349-5o health care in, 305 Israel and, 224 military in,211,303,390,392 nationalism in, 299-3oo newness and, 317 Old Left in, 18 Patrick Henry College and, 193 policemen in,301 poor in,304 populationof,299,391 religion in,150,310,311,338,396 socialismin,152-53,292,321-22,323 universities in, 371 in Western alliance, 3 8 9 - 93,394 working hours in,392,396 European Union (EU),13, 21, 212, 298, 299, 311 capital punishment and, 367 euthanasia, r7, r6o, 313 Evangelical Christians, lee Christian Evangelicals Evans, Don, 1 34, 1 43, 1 4 6 Evans, Rowland, 6o Evergreen Freedom Foundation, 1 59 Everyone Says I Love'rou, 270 evolutionary theory, 1 59 , 3 11 execution, me death penalty and execution FabianSociety, 151-52,323 Fa1WCll, Jerry; 34, 84, 252 families, 111,112,122,182, 254, 284, 313,380 abstinence education and marriage promotion, 146,149,185, 146,149,185,271 black,73,115,271 breakup of 67, 73,115, x59-6o Focus on the Family, 6,11,15,16,186-88, 194,341 see also marriage family planning, 28, 33, 65 Family Research Council, 112,184,187 farm programs, 41,174, 254, 257 INDEX • 451 Farris, Michael, 191-92 fascists, 348,350 Fawcett,Farrah,37 FedemlBulldozer, Tbe(Anderson), 69 federalism, 319 Federalist Society, 281 Federa7Regirter,70 Federal Reserve Board, 69 Fehrenbach, T R., 31,33 2 Feith, Douglas, zoo, zoo feminism, 18, 67, 81,122, 283,287, 288 Ferguson, Niall,396 Feulner, Edwin, 81, 82,16o,167,16g, 382 FinanddTfme; 219 Fini,Gianfranco,350 firearms, see guns First Baptist Church, 84 Fiske, Robert, 121 flag Pi-, 300 flags, 197, 197,248 Florida, 20,143,241,309,310 election recount in, 132, 230, 285 school vouchers in,276 Flynt, Jack, 86 Focus on the Family, 6, 11, IS, If, 186-88, 194, 341 Foley,Tom,115 Ford, Betty; 71 Ford, Gerald, 71, 77, 85, 87, go, 1 33 Ford, Henry, 245,3 2 8 Ford Foundation, 166-67 Ford Motor Company, 8o foreign policy,15, 15,74,93, 292-93395 - 9 6 Achesonand, 224 aid in, 33, 4 2 ,39 0 American exceptionalism in, 295 - 3oo of G. W Bush, 21,138-39,147,148,157, 199-202,208-21,224,293,295-97,348 39 0 ,39 6 of Clinton, 95,120,199, 213,219, 297,390 communism and, lee communism Dean and, 359 immigrants and, 299 imperialism in, 202,217-18,222,223,296, 297 isolationism in, 8,102, 269, 296, 348 of Kissinger, 7o multilateralism in, 205, x16, 296,393 nation building in, 201,202,218-19,220, zz1 necconservativesand, lgg-224,197 preemptive force in, 213-14,217,222-23,297, 359,393 of Reagan,go 452 • INDEX foreign policy (continued) September it and, x99, 202, 203, 206, 210, 212,214,218,224 unilateralismin,210,x12-14,216,217,224, 296, 297,395 seeahospeoffcarear FOrtuyn,Pim,350 Foster,Vdnce,107 Founding Fathers, 19 2 ,317,318,319,387 Fvuntainbead,The (Rand), 46 Fox News, 162,163-64,165, 169, x15, x16, 286, 337 France, 207,z16,z19,222,292,293,z98,3oo, 310,315-r6,3I7,323,338,343,387,388,389 National Front in, 349-So Revolution in,314,315,318,319 universities in,371 Frank, Barney 116-17 Franken,Al,165,384 Franklin, Benjamin, 299 Fraser, Douglas, 82 Free Congress Foundation (Committee for the Survival of a Free Congress), 17, 77, 81, 82,112 freedom, r3, 1 9,59,7S, 2 I7,293,294,343 French Revolution and, 3x9 Freedom Forum bookshops, 59 Freedom Party, 350 Freedom Revolutim,The (Armey),113 free market, 48-49, 51, 95,252, 253-54, 257, 268, 293,339,393 Free to Cbase, So Friedan,Betty, 287 Friedman, Milton, TO, 48, 49, 6o, 62, 72, 8o, 157,16o,274,303,3o6 Friednon,Tom, 388 Frist, Bill, 138, 250,263 From, Al, lo3 frontier, 330,332 Fruntline, I8¢ Front Sight, 351-52 From, David, 145-46, Kq, 165,209,221,339 Fuller, Howard, 275 Furchigott-Roth,Diana, 286 Future inAmmca, 75e (Wells), 327 Gaffney, Frank, 157, 157,205 Galbraith, John Kenneth, 9, 49, 87,153, 380 Gallup PODS, 279, 323, 360, 369 gated communities, 350-53,381, 386 gays, gay rights, 16, 65, 83, 85,147,148, x60, 182, 183-84,x85,186,187,270,285,386 Ashcroft and, 146 G. W Bush and, 38 church and, 292 marriage and, 149-50,183,236,264,292,335, 370 375, 387 in military, 96, co6 RINOs and 188 Geffen,David, 125 General Electric, 3z8 General Motors, 42,143 Generation-GOP, 28r-82 geography 1- 3,14 I9, 315,324.329-32,386 George V, Icing, 50 Georgia, t85,196-97,234355 Gephardt,Dick, 236,237,359,36o,371 Gerson, Michael, 145 Germany, 216, 222, 293, 294, *8,300,312,315, 316 323, 338,349, 387, 388, 389, 392, 396 universities in,371 Gigot, Paul, 104-5 Gilder, George, 158 Gillespie, Ed, 258,36z Gingrich, Newt, 16, 96,100-10x,104, 1o6y,113,116,118-20,122,131,183, 183,254, 284,340 G. W Bush and, 132 Clinton and, 95 FOX News and, 163 optimism and, 346,347 speakership of, Its-16, u7,175 Giuliani, Rudy,113, r'4,338,379 Gladwell, Malcolm, 1x9 Glazer, Nathan, 7z globalization, 293,294 global warming, 16o, 257,297 GodandMan at Yale (Buckler,), So Goeglein,Tim, 146 Goizueta, Robert, 307 Goldberg Bernard, x65 Goldberg, Whoopi, 373 Goldwater, Barry, 9-10,32,33,39,43,47, 54-62, 64, 7r, 88, 214,334,358,385 on abortion, 252 BarcTodyand, 76 H. Clinton and, to, 365 Canrrienre ofa Conrovative, 34, 59, 254, 281 Hofstadter and, 380 presidential campaign of, 54, 55, 56, 57, 59-611, 62,67 Reagan and, 9o Scaife and, 78 Goldwater, Peggy, 252 Gonzales,Albeno,134,184 Gonzalez, Matt, 375 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 207 Gore,Al,12,96,103,118,122,126-27, 143,159, 162,x65,177,230-31,235,237,254,321,3 2 5, 358,387 atApolloTheatre, 276 gun rights and, 177 populist campaign strategy of, 126-27,245, 307,36o religiosity Of 370 women voters and, 238, 283 Gore, T'1Pper, 370 Gottlieb, Alan, 179-80,182,195 government, federal, 93, 284 American exceptionalism and, 295,303-5 conservative hostility toward, 9, 13, IS, 20, 22,32,40,49,58, 59, 89, 90,116,117,123, 174-82,341,345,351,352,382 expansion of 41, 42, 70,140,182, 256 Patrick Henry College and, 192 Texas and, l3g-4o government programs, 73, 277 G. W Bush's use of x59 Gore on, 127 Great Society, g, to, 64-65,73,75, 115,131, 232,383,385 New Deal, 41,42,5o, 52,69-7o, 108-9, r,9, 235,237,306,322 -2 3,35 6 spending on,140,303,323,381 welfare, see welfare governorships, 22, 4z, 57,231, 232, 240,357 Graham, Billy, 144, 144,396 Graham,Bob, 360,365 Gratnm, Phil, 37,140, 304 Granholm,Jennifer,357 GreatAwakening,325 Great Britain see Britain Great Society, 9, to, 64-65,73,75,115,131, 232, 383,395 Greeks, ancient, 74-75 Greenberg,Stanley, z69 Green Party, 126, 126,375 Greenspan,Alan, 46,229 Grenada, Ill Griswold, Estelle, 28,65 Griewold v Conneetieuut, 28 Guantinamo Bay, 17-18,386,395 Gulf Way 10x,104, 200, 359 Gulf War 11, see Iraq War guns, 8,9,t4,I5,23,40,125,165,168, 1 75, 176-So,196,z63,268,283,335,345,359, 367,382 assault weapons, 110,174,179 G. W Bush and, 38 Clinton and, 110, no Coulter on, 287 frontier and, 332 hunting, 138, x68 militias and, 348,349 neoliberalism and, 97 planned communities and, 351-52 students and, 28o ir Texas,138,177 working-class voters and, 236 see aho National Rifle Association Hage, Wayne,181 Harder, Jorg 350 Hallibutton,143,144 Hamilton, Alexander, 387 Hamiltonians,192, 316 Hance, Kent, 35, 36, 39 handguns, see guns Hanna, Mucus AIOnZO, 227,228 HardLine (Perle), 207 Haws, Billyjames, 43,44 W A. Harriman, 28 Harris, Katherine, 172, 172,285 Hart, Gary, 97,372 Hartz, Louis, 43 Harvard University, 69,280-81, x88, 371, 372 Hassett, Kevin, j54 Hastert, Dennis, 11 , 374 - 75,37 6 ,377 - go , 383-84,388 Hasten, Jean, 378 hate organizations, 349-50 Hayek, Friedrichvon,10, 48, 49, 75, 252, 334, 339,340,344,38 2 Hayward, Steven, 89 Healer,, Denis,153 health cue, 111,114, 283, 305, 3 2 3, 359 Clintons and, 96,108-9,'IO,113,176, 11 3 ,1 7 6, 3 0 5 , 359 Johnson and, 64 Medicare and Medicaid, 64,117,118,127,131, 2 4 6 , 2 47, 2 55, 2 5 6 , 2 5 8 ,3 0 5,3 2 3 Nixon and, 70 prescription-drug benefit, 1 7, 256, x58, 305 Health, Education, and Welfare Department, 42 Health and Human Services, Department of, 146, 2 59 Heinz, John, 111, 363 Heinz,Teresa,363 HefffrreNatim (Morone), 2o Helms,Jesse,86-87,214,z63 Henry, O., 31 INDEX • 453 454 - INDEX INDEX - 455 Heritage Foundation, 15,17, 77, 78,80-82,103, Io5,16o,161,165,167-71285,341, 347 Fox News and, 163 Hess, Karl, 57 hierarchies, 13-14,341,353 high-touch politics, At Hill,Anita, tot 'Hillarycare,' tog,110,113,176, 305, 359 Himmelfarb, Milton, 75 Hiss, Alger, 44 - 45, 61 , 68 Hobby, Ovem Culp, 42 Hodel, Donald Paul, 187 Hofstadter, Richard, 348,38o Holland, 350 Hollings, Fritz, 365 Hollywood, 69,371, 372-73 Holmes, Oliver Wendell, 91 Holt,John, l9o homeland security, 197, 246, 256, 260 homeless, 379 homeschooling,189-94,285,381 Home School Legal Defense Association (HSLDA),189,191,194 homosexuality, tee gays, gay rights Hooks, Benjamin, 273 Hoover, Herbert, 8, 41, 42, S0 Hoover Institution, So, 8o, r57-58,167, r69 Hopkins, Harry, 173, 173,356 Horn, Wade, 146, 259-6o, 286 Horton, Willie, 97,262 House Ethics Committee, rot House of Representatives, to, 57, 321, 374 conservative ratings of, 399-400 creation of, 319 Democrats in, 3, 57,101, 231, 232, 355 Republicans in, 2,57,93, rOI,115, 231, 232, 365 House Republican Study Committee, 82 House Un-American Activities Committee, 44 housing: planned communities, 350-53,381,386 rent control and, 49 Housing and Urban Development, Department of; 98 Houston,Tex.,32 275-76 Minnery,Tom, 187,188 minorities, 103,238,239,277 affirmative action and, 9, 22 blacks, ne blacks death row and, lob Latinos, tee Latinos Mises, Ludwigvon, 48,339, 340 missile defense, 127,156, 156,210, 297 ABM treaty,133, 2oz, 210, 293, 297, 40 0 Mississippi, 53, 231,355 Missouri, 185 Mitterrand,Frangois,153,292 Mondale, Walter, 91-92, 97, 237, 282,347, 354 Le Monde, 222, 292, 390, 394 Monroe, Marilyn, 372 Moore, Michael, 355, 361, 384 Moore, Raymond, 191 Moore, Roy, 187 Moore, Steve, 157,175,176 moral federalism, 387 moral imperialism, 217-18,222,2 2 3, 2 97 Moral Majority, t6,83,84-85, 111 moral values, 12, 20, 22, 51, 75,123, 124,157,184, 186, free-muket principles vs., 252, 253-54 see also Religious Right; sperifuisaes Mormons, 324,386 Monroe, James, 20 Morris, Dick, 11 7 Morrison,Marcy188,195 458 • INDEX Mountain States Legal Foundation, 181 Mount Holyoke,28o Mount Pelerin Society, 48 Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 69, 73, 75,115, 21-4 Moynihan Report, 73 multilateralism, 205, 216, 296, 393 Mandell, Robert, 89 Murdoch, Rupett,116,154, m2,206,337 Murray, Charles, 114-15 Musgrove,Marilyn, 194 Muslims, Islam,148,173,175,184, 350 NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People), 197, 233, 273, 277 Nader, Ralph, 126 NAFTA(NorthAmerican FreeTrade Agreement), rob, 120,126,141, 299 Natures, Lewis, 27,350 Napolitano, Janet, 357 Nash, George, 340 Nation,50,154,t66,247 National Assessment of Educational Progress, 275 National Center for Policy Analysis, 159 National Committee for an Effective Congress, 82 National Committee for Responsive Philanthropy, 11 3 National Congressional Club, 82 National Conservative Political Action Committee, 82 National EmpowermentTelevision,112 National Endowment for the Arts, 1 3 2 National Fatherhood Initiative, 259-6o National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB),109-10,176 National Federation of Republican Women, 28 3, 28 5 Nationallmterest, 76, 204, zo6 nationalism, 13,15,21,202,211,21x,214,219, 221,299-300,342-43 Nationalist Christian Crusade, 51 NationalJournalism Center, 83 National Legal Center for Public Interest, 83 National Park Service, 181 NatiomalRevieu,10,15,18,50-51,72,74,79,92, 154,159, National Rifle Association (NRA),18, Io8, Do-11,111, q6-78,179, r8o,18z, x95,197, 358-59 National Science Foundation, 63 national security, 244, 246-48,267 National Security Strategy, 203,212-13 nation building, 201,202, ZI8-19, 220, 221 NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), 42,212,297,394 Natural, The (Klein), 120 Nelson, Willie, 37 neoconservatives, 71-76,113, 1 1 3,25 1 , 272,384 domination oQ zo6 foreign policy and, I9g-224, 297 pessunistic view of world held by, Do-r2, 223 social ties among, zoo-5 undateralism championed by, 210, 2x2-14, 224 neoliberalism,97 neo-Nazis, 349 neopaternalism, 259 Netanyahu,Benjamin, 204 Neustadt,Richard, zo3-4 Nevada, 241, 351 New Deal, 41,42,50,5 2 , 6 9 - 70, rob-9,139, 235, 2 37,3o 6 ,3 2 -3,35 6 NMMexim, 241,357 New Republic, 50,154,164, 164,384 Neu, Rlgbt, The, WeieReady to Lead (Viguerie), 83 News Corporation, 206 Newsom, Gavin, 149,375 newspapers, 112,165 see also ipecific newspapers New Statesmam,152 Newsweek, 49, 79, 97 NewYork,58,239,242,244,267,302,321,327, 328,379,386 N~YorkDailyNew; n8 New Yorker, 163 New York Herald, 43 New York 0bserver 162 New York Post, zo6, 216 New York Review ofBookr, 68,166, 292 New York SIm, zo6 New lerkTimes, 47, 55, 87, 166, 199,254,271,292,359,380-81,388 NmYork Times Alagazine, 288 Nichols, Terry, 349 Nixon, Richard, 10,14,36,68-71,72,77,103, 123,125,133, 2io, z43,265,282,361 blacks and, 7o, 271 G. H. W Bush and, 34 Gore and, D6 Gottlieb and, 18c, Hiss affair and, 44, 68 Kaelon,388 liberal governing oC 69-7o, 71 populist conservative stance of, 69, 235 presidential campaign of (x960),1, 9, 59-6o presidential reelection of, 85, 86, D9 presidential victory of (1968), 66-67,105 states won by in ig6o, map of, 1 noble myths, 75,221 No Child Left Behind Act, i5g Nock, AIben jay, 8,46 Norquist, Grover, x6-q, x8,97, in,157,167, 1-75,176,x95,196,340 KStreet and, 258 NRAand, 177 NorquiSt John, 275 Norris, Chuck, 37 North, Oliver, IS Noah American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), io8,1z0,126, x4I, 299 North AtlanticTreatyOrganization (NATO), 42, 212, 297, 394 Northeast Republicans, 8, 10, 27,40,52,54,87, 253,264, 295,321,355 North Korea, 61,212,221,222,223,389,390, 393 Norton, Gale, 182, 182,284 Novak, Robert, 6o NRA, see National Rifle Association nuclearweapona 297 low-yield,56,214 seealso weapons of mass destruction Nutter, Warren, 69 Nye,Joseph, 222 Oakeshott, Michael, 334,346,347-48 O'Beirne, Kate, 283 objectivism, 46 obscenity, 65 Occam, William of, 47 Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), 70 Odessa, Tex., The President told CEA [Council of Economic Advisers] and me to move on household appliances, paper cartons, news print, men's underwear, women's hosiery, glass containers, cel 95 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH lulose, [and] air conditioners.... 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For the American public and the few who saw this disaster coming Contents Author's Note The $700 Billion Bailout Bill: What Is This Monster? ix Introduction Original Sin: The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008: The Patriot Act Meets the World of Finance 1 Chapter 1 The Big Hoist: Will the $700 Billion Bailout of the Mortgage and Credit Markets Work? (It Had Better) 11 How the $700 Billion Bailout Machine Will Work and Who Will Enforce It 14 How TARP Will Work 16 Will the Taxpayers Ever Get Their $700 Billion Back? 24 Should Fannie and Freddie Be Eliminated? 28 Chapter 2 The Three Most Important Things You Need to Know Now-Mortgages, Rates, and Housing 31 The Bailout Bill: First, the Good News 36 Call UpYour Lender and Shout, 'I Want to Restructure My Mortgage!' As I consider my thoughts, stock markets have crashed worldwide, unemployment is rising, home prices continue to head south, and many Americans (unless they make their living off of home foreclosures) feel like there is no end in sight to the bad economic news. Reporters from every major news organization in the United States and several overseas news out lets were there. He also is executive editor of National Mortgage News, the leading independent trade publication/web site for the residential finance industry. and as for bad news, the bearer could pay a high price.'' Butter, 'Dancing on Sanctions' Grave'; Gary C. Gambill, 'Syria's Foreign Rela tions: Iraq,' Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, March 2001; William Orme, 'The World: Syria Faces Pressure to Hatt Alleged Iraqi Oil Flows,' Los Angeles Times, NOTES 417 January 29, 2002; Charles Recknagel, 'Iraq: Syria Considering End to Oil Smuggling,' Middle East News Online, March 7, 2001; Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, 'Briefing for the Press Aboard Aircraft En Route to Brussels, Febru ary 26, 2001,' U.S. Department of State, February 27, 2001. Back in Washington, news of the advance spiked up the alarm among policymakers. But on the whole, news coverage in the United States took cues from the Bush-Quayle administration, increas ingly targeting Noriega as an intolerable blight on the hemisphere. News accounts could neatly summarize the objectives-in the words of one newspaper, 'to protect the lives of Americans in Panama, to restore the democratic process there, to pre serve the Panama Canal treaties and to apprehend Noriega.'SZ Over all, the news media were in no mood to poke holes in the list. There was little media space for voices like House member Ron 16 WAN MADE EASY Dellums, who provided some context scarcely noted in news accounts: 'Manuel Noriega is a direct creation-and consequence-of our hemispheric militarism. Under the headline 'Invasion That Became a Nightmare,' the Times of London published a grim news account: Building Agendas for War 19 Three days after Bush pronounced Operation Just Cause 'pretty well wrapped up,' U.S. officials admitted that Ameri can troops could be involved in urban warfare for weeks or months. 1 America Is a Fair and Noble Superpower News outlets may feature arguments about the wisdom of going to war in a particular place at a specific time, but these are usually differences over tactics and priorities. So, when there's news that American spying operations have undermined possibilities for peace, the shelf life of the story is apt to be fleeting. Such information, forthrightly presented, would have been relevant in news reports during 2002 and early 2003 to explain some of the earlier tensions as well as some current Iraqi concerns. From Russia to France to Chile to Japan to Australia, the story was big mainstream news. But the major U.S. news outlets were silent about this provision, failing to inform the public about appendix B of the Rambouillet text, which stated: 'NATO personnel shall enjoy, together with their vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and equipment, free and unrestricted passage and unimpeded access throughout the FRY [Federal Republic of Yugoslavia] including associated air space and territorial waters. And the U.S. news media, while reporting on the Rambouillet talks as part of extensive prewar coverage of diplomatic maneuvers and saber-rattling, had not informed the American people that their government was, in effect, insisting on a far-fetched provision: so war would seem like the only Ou r Le aders Will Do E v e ry t h ing They Can to Avo id W'ar 43 wise option after Washington's supposedly good-faith negotiation efforts failed to culminate with an agreement. The news story informed readers that France and other balking countries had just engaged in 'a diplomatic version of an Our Leade r s W i l l D o Ev e r vt hino Th ey Ca n ( o A vo i d W a r 45 ambush'-a description attributed to no one. 5 And, as a news story noted when September began, 'Support for President Bush climbed from 58 percent to 76 per cent in the three weeks after Iraq seized the small oil-rich country of This Guv Is a Modem-Day Hitler 65 Kuwait.'' Back in 1993, the insightful NPR correspondent Sylvia Poggioli had written about dynamics of news coverage of warfare in the Balkans: 'Policy in Western capitals-or lack of it-has increasingly been based This Gu v Is a Mod ern-Da v Hitler 67 on news reports, and from my experience I have seen that many times the media have been better at pulling emotional strings than at analyz ing facts. This Is about Human Rights $S But once in a while, a mainstream news outlet summons the gumption necessary to explore grim truth about the powerful in our midst. So it was not a particularly conspicuous story in mid-March 2004 when the San Francisco Chronicle's business section reported some good financial news for the household of a U.S. senator: 'Perini Corp., The effect of `objectivity' was not to free the news of political influence, but to open wide the channel through which official influence flowed.' In the aftermath of the December 1989 Panama attack, Washington Post reporter Patrick E. Tyler wrote that it was 'an invasion that almost everybody acknowledges was poorly covered by the news media because reporters were barred from accompanying the If This War Is Wrung, the Media Will Tell Ls 117 troops.' 19 The president of CBS News, Eric W Ober, was caustic: 'The new guidelines guaran tee pack journalism-the worst form of reporting-and allow the 118 V <%s vnDF. With the Gulf War in its fourth week, Bruce Morton of CBS provided this news analysis: 'If Saddam Hussein can turn the world against the effort, convince the world that women and children are the targets of the air campaign, then he will have won a battle, his only one so far.'zs During the first two weeks of the Gulf War, voices of 124 WAR MADE EASS' domestic opposition were all but excluded from the nightly news pro grams on TV networks. As usual, the enthusiasm for war was extreme on Fox News Chan- If This War Is Wrong, the Media Will Tell Us 125 nel. '' 2 ) At the other end of the narrow cable-news spectrum, CNN cranked up its own prowar fervor. 73 Many observers were suspicious that the Pentagon engaged in an 130 WAR MADE EASY aggressive form of news management with a devastating November 13 missile attack on the AI-Jazeera bureau in Kabul. Political reporters define news worthiness in part by what's going to affect American politics in the sense of who gets elected the next time around. But the first thing that the journal ists look to is: `What are the elites debating in Washington?' That's what really sets the news agenda.... But during the 1960s and in later decades, TV news has played a much larger role in promoting and accepting wars than in challenging them. Well-known exceptions were quite different from the routine TV news fare: 'Almost every 136 WAR MADE EASY discussion of television's early coverage of the war touches on what has been rightly called, by CBS News executive William Small, `the single most famous bit of reporting in South Vietnam'-the burning of the huts at Cam Ne. On August 5, 1965, the CBS Evening News carried a dramatic film story, narrated by Morley Safer, which showed U.S. Marines using their cigarette lighters to set fire to Vietnamese thatched huts in the village of Cam Ne. 'Producers of the NBC and ABC Evening News programs said that they ordered editors to delete excessively grisly or detailed shots because they were not appropriate for a news program shown at din nertime. A former producer of the CBS Evening News said that they also had a network policy of not showing `identifiable' American sol diers before their families were notified, and that the anchorman was supposed to warn the audience if especially `gruesome shots' were to be shown. According to former CBS News president Fred W Friendly, these network policies `helped shield the audience from the true hor ror of the war.' Television news became more 140 WAR MADE EASY downbeat-and, in the wake of the Ter offensive early in 1968, Walter Cronkite famously decried the war as a 'bloody stalemate. At the negotiating table, the American media establishment knew which side it was on, as reflected in anchor David Brinkley's explanation that reached millions of Americans via NBC News on October 8, 1970: 'President Nixon's new peace plan for Vietnam was formally offered at the Paris peace talks today, and the Communists reacted with sneers, wisecracks, and 142 wne ti.ku¢ 'Information about what is happening elsewhere, called `news,' features conflict and violence-'If it bleeds, it leads' runs the venera ble guideline of tabloids and 24-hour headline news shows-to which the response is compassion, or indignation, or titillation, or approval, 146 WAR MADE EASY as each misery heaves into view,' Susan Sontag commented.' 'The American public knows the importance of this war,' Fox News pundit and Weekly Standard executive editor Fred Barnes told viewers a few days after the invasion began. 'This weekend, at a Fort Hood hospital, I presented a Purple Heart to some of our wounded, had the honor of thanking them on behalf of all Ameri cans,' President Bush said very soon after beginning a major news conference in mid-April 2004. 162 WAR MA D E EASY If Penn had gone to a U.S. military base in the Persian Gulf region to show his support for the anticipated war on Iraq, it was hard to imagine that America's cable news channels would be filled with the kind of fierce arguments that raged about his peace-oriented trip to Baghdad. 'If news coverage largely accounted-at least as an `intervening variable'-for the growing public desire to get out of the war, it probably also accounts for the fact that the Nixon administration was able to main tain majority support for its Vietnam policies through four years of war and for the fact that the public came to see the war as a `mistake' 164 RAR MADE EA51' or `tragedy,' rather than the crime the more radical opposition believed it to be.' The TV news usually excluded actual statements from them. One of the most important lessons learned is the necessity of mobilizing strong public support, through the projection of a powerful and tightly controlled PR program, with particular effort directed toward the realization of positive TV news coverage. 'Next to combat stories,' journalist Edward Jay Epstein found when he systematically reviewed TV news about the war, 'the most prevalent form of coverage during this period featured new types of military technology-helicopter gun ships, `magic dragon' air support, Naval patrols, etc.' 1124 14 The Pentagon Fights Wars as Humanely as Possible During the first several years of the Vietnam War, while stories about battlefield initiatives such as search-and-destroy missions were big news on television, there was also great emphasis on the latest techno logical marvels being deployed. 3 185 186 VAR MADE EAST The following month, the same aircraft carrier hosted an ABC news crew. The underlying message was that morally as well as technologically we-the news audience-could put our trust in the pilots: they did their jobs well and without vindictiveness, and if civil ians were killed, it was not because the pilots wanted to kill them or did not care-it was just `part of the job.'' News reports again offered assurances that America's air power would guarantee success. The news was filled with footage and descriptions of cruise missiles, F-117 Stealth bombers, F-16CJ jets, and other ultramodern aircraft, in detail. The war was really 'untold stories' that news coverage bypassed. '5° Yet TV news coverage is apt to convey the notion that most people dying at the hands of the American mili- T'he Pentagon Fights Wars as Humanely as Possible 195 tary deserve to die. 15 Our Soldiers Are Heroes, Theirs Are Inhuman The bad soldiers in Vietnam lacked human qualities as far as main stream U.S. news outlets were concerned. Five years later, when a news story in the same paper appeared under the headline 'One Last Round for 2 Old Dominican Rivals' (New York Times, May 8, 1990), political analyst Noam Chomsky noticed some journalistic problems: 'Reporting the Bosch-Balaguer 1990 elec tion campaign in the Dominican Republic, [Times correspondent] Howard French tells us that Juan Bosch, `a lifelong Marxist,' `was removed from office in a military coup shortly after winning the country's first free elections, in 1963 [sic],' and that his rival, Joaquin Balaguer, defeated Bosch in the 1966 presiden- Notes to Page s 7- 8 241 tial election. (News release, Institute for Public Accuracy, March 4, 2003) The Observer's expose, headlined 'Revealed: U.S. Dirty Tricks to Win Vote on Iraq War,' came eighteen days before the invasion of Iraq began. General William Westmoreland, Nightline, ABC News, October 19, 1990. Daniel Ellsberg quoted in Norman Solomon and Jeff Cohen, Wizards of Media Oz: Behind the Curtain of Mainstream News (Monroe, Maine: Common Courage Press, 1997), p. 197. This fact appeared to matter little to the news editors of America, who reasoned that if Americans weren't fighting, the war wasn't worth covering, or at least not to the same extent, any way.' (See Norman Solomon and Reese Erlich, Target Iraq: What the News Media Didn't Tell You [New York: Context 252 Notes to Pages 4 4-45 Books, 20031, pp. 73-74) Rage is audible in Washington when the United Nations fails to assist with some major goals of U.S. foreign policy. But tacit erasure of inconvenient history-including his own-was integral to the warm relationship between Powell and U.S. news media. News releases that debunked Bush administration WMD claims at the time they were made are archived on the Web site of the Institute for Public Accu racy, www.accuracy.org. But later, with notable disregard for his torical facts, many reporters at leading news organizations flatly asserted that Saddam Hussein had 'expelled' or 'kicked out' the U.N. inspectors at that time. Among the purveyors of that misinformation during the last months of 2002 were Daniel Schorr of National Public Radio (August 3), John Diamond of USA Today (August 8), John McWethy of ABC World News Tonight (August 12), John King of CNN (August 18), John L. Lumpkin of the Associated Press (September 7), Randall Pinkston of CBS Evening News (November 9), Betsy Pisik of the Washington Times (November 14), and Bob Woodward of the Wash ington Post (November 17). While Nixon was hostile to the demonstrators and everything they stood for, he recognized the value of photo-ops and news stories depicting his pantomime of reaching out to them. My search of the official Web site for the Coalition Provisional Authority, the U.S. led occupation authority in Iraq, turned up briefings and news releases with references to Sadr's newspaper-but no backup for what Lehrer had said on the air. Four decades ago, midway through my teenage years, I began to wonder about war coverage that I was reading at the breakfast table and seeing on the nightly news. Index

ABC News, 36, 50, 65, 114, 157 embedded reporters and, 151 Gulf War and, 118, 119, 188 Iraq war and, 159-161, 198-199 Lynch story and, 206, 209 opinion poll, 230 Panama invasion and, 12, 14 Vietnam peace talks and, 141 Vietnam war images and, 139 Vietnam war technology and, 186-187 war on terrorism and, 127, 145 Yugoslavia bombings and, 120, 122,124 Abizaid, John P., 213, 217, 219, 223 Abraham Lincoln (aircraft carrier), 41 Ackerman, Seth, 59 acts of war, atrocities vs., 225-226 Adelman, Ken, 24 advertising. See weapons of mass destruction Bipartisan Commission on Central America, 61 bipartisanship, 13, 15-16, 49 Birns, Larry, 224 Black Hawk Down (film), 209 'Blame America Firsters,' 170 Blood Rites (Ehrenreich), 166 Bloom, David, 150 Blum, Richard, 92 Blum Capital Partners, 92 Blystone, Richard, 187 B'Nai B'rith of Panama, 18 body counts, 193 Bolivar, Simon, 100 Bolton, John, 49 Bonior, David, 160 Bonner, Ray, 78-79 Boren, David, 13 Bosch, Juan, 1, 2, 4, 7 Bosnia, 29, 71, 82 Boston Globe, 13, 20, 66, 70, 117, 193,223 Bradley, Bill, 99 Brazil, 5 Index 297 Brelis, Dean, 203-204 Bremer, Paul, 214, 215 Brinkley, David, 141, 164 Britain, 29, 31, 32, 33, 45, 50 WMD intelligence and, 58, 59 Yugoslav bombing and, 121, 122 Brittain, Victoria, 83 Brokaw, Tom, 44, 118, 126, 144, 187,206 Brooks, Vincent, 208 Brown, Aaron, 123 Browne, Malcolm, 117 Bruckheimer, Jerry, 209 B'Tselem, 174-175 Budeit, James, 23 Burton, Dan, 13 Burundi, 82 Bush, George H. W Angolan warand, 82 Gulf War rationale of, 87 on Hussein as Gulf War target, 188-189 Hussein-as-Hitler rhetoric of, 64-65,66 Hussein support in 1980s by, 114 Iraqi Shiite rebellion and, 73 Kuwaiti incubator story and, 83-84 Panama invasion rationale of, 12-19,24,35 on Vietnam syndrome, 211 Bush, George W, 8 Afghanistan and, 145, 202 critics of, 125, 159, 160, 161, 163 foreign policy of, 28, 29-31, 94 Iraq casualties and, 147-149, 194, 195, 198, 228 Iraq invasion deceptions and, 181-183,216,235 Iraq invasion diplomatic maneuvers and, 44, 111 Iraq invasion explanation and, 53, 189 Iraq invasion propaganda and, 25-26,32,33,46,48-49,71,212 Iraq invasion rationale change and, 73 Iraq invasion results and, 101, 223, 228 Iraq 'Mission Accomplished' ceremony and, 41, 207, 208 Iraq occupation continuance and, 228,230-231 Iraq sovereignty and, 217 Iraq-Vietnam parallels and, 158 news management by, 126-127, 128,132 truth avowals of, 49, 59 war on terrorism and, 94, 95, 126-128,144,148,168-169, 170, 171, 173, 174, 195 weapons of mass destruction address of, 57-58 Bush administration (1989-1993). See Bush, George W 'Bush Doctrine, The' (Krauthammer), 29-30 Butler, Richard, 50 Calley, William, 204 Cambodia invasion, 98, 164 Cameroon, 32 Cam Ne huts burning, 136 Campbell, Tom, 110 Card, Andrew, 50 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 181 Carter, Hodding, 119 Carter, Jimmy, 76-77, 78-79, 205 Casey, William J., 11 Castro, Fidel, 3, 4 CBS Evening News (television program), 136, 139, 193, 206 CBS News, 28, 50, 80, 108, 117-118, 119 Balkans and, 120 Gulf War and, 187 Panama invasion and, 193 Vietnam War and, 136, 139, 140, 192,204 war on terrorism and, 127, 144 celebrities, 161-163 censorship, 114,115,116-117 Afghanistan bombing and, 129, 142 298 Index censorship (continued) of Arabic news media, 183, 198 Grenada invasion and, 21 Gulf War and, 117-118, 150 Iraq war and, 183 Iraq war returning coffins and, 148 My Lai massacre and, 204 war on terrorism and, 126-128, 131-132 See also media, self-censorship of Central Intelligence Agency. foreign intervention resolution of, 6 Gulf War and, 88 Iraq war critics and, 159-160 Index 299 Iraq war resolution of, 53, 72, 111 Iraq weapons inspection and, 49-50 Panama invasion and, 13, 15-16 war resolutions and, 103-111 See also specific committees Congressional Research Service, 88 Connally, John, 39-40 conscience, conformism vs. exercise of, 237 Conscience International, 202 Constellation (aircraft carrier), 185, 186 Contras (Nicaragua), 11, 64, 81-82 Cook, Robin, 122 Cope, Douglas, 228 Cordesman, Anthony, 119 corporate interests, 87-94 defense spending and, 113-114 globalization and, 92, 116 media conglomerates and, 91, 113, 128,163 corporate scandals, 51 Country Joe and the Fish (music group), 196 Couric, Katie, 126, 206 Couso, Jose, 152 credibility, 48, 221-231 Croatia, 67, 71 Cronkite, Walter, 138, 139, 164, 192 cruise missiles, 188 Cuba, 2, 3, 6 Dalglish, Lucy, 56 Daniels, Jerry, 94 D'Aubuisson, Roberto, 78 Dayan, Moshe, 18 Daytona Beach News-Journal, 171 Dean, Howard, 100 death squads, 79, 189, 224 Deaver, Michael, 119 deceptions. See Britain enriched uranium, 72 Enron, 51 Enterprise (aircraft carrier), 145 Epstein, Edward Jay, 135, 136, 138, 141,185 Erlich, Reese, 116 espionage, 31-32, 50 ethnic cleansing, 67, 69 euphemisms, 118, 119, 122, 125, 126,143 evil and evildoers, concept of, 31, 64, 172,187 expansionism, 30, 100 Face the Nation (television program), 108 Fadil, Nasser and Ali, 197 FAIR (media watch group), 45, 61, 119,122,123-124,200 Fall of Yugoslavia, The (Glenny), 67 Fallujah, 153, 183, 228 civilian casualties in, 191, 194-197 Iraqi soldiers' refusal to fight in, 213 Farnsworth, Elizabeth, 85-86 Federal Communications Commission, 127-128 Feinstein, Dianne, 92 Feldbusch, Jeremy, 149 Fernandez, Leonel, 7 Financial Times, 121-122 First Amendment, 129, 236 Fisher, Ian, 145 Fisk, Robert, 121 Fitzwater, Marlin, 68 Fleischer, Ari, 127 FMLN (EI Salvador), 78, 79 Foreign Affairs (journal), 44 foreign policy, U.S., 27-33 charges against critics of, 158-159 corporate interests entwined with, 87-94,113 hawks and, 28, 59, 164 journalists' acceptance of, 116 lofty ideals and, 27, 29-30 perception gaps and, 28-29 presidential power and, 108 See also specific presidents and wars Fortune (magazine), 28 48 Hours (television program), 206 Fox News Channel, 127, 147, 172, 198 hawkish commentators and, 122, 124-125 on Iraq war critics, 160-161 viewers' factual misperceptions from, 154 France, 29, 32, 44, 89, 91 'freedom fighters,' 81-82 Friedman, Thomas, 44, 87-88, 116, 121,122 Friendly, Fred W, 139 Gallup poll, 135, 182, 215, 224, 230 Garner, Jay, 72-73 Gates, Robert, 81 General Electric, 113-114 genocide, 69, 77, 114-115 Georgia (republic), 95 Germany, 29 Gheit, Fadel, 89 Index .301 See NPR National Republican Congressional Committee, 16 National Security Agency, 32-33 National Security Council, 14, 119 national security establishment, 80-81,85 journalists' relationship with, 116, 117 television self-censorship and, 126-128 NATO, 75-76, 97 Yugoslavia bombing and, 66, 69, 70, 120, 124, 125 Yugoslavia peace terms and, 41-44 Naughton, James, 127 NAVSTAR system, 114 Nazi Germany, 63, 64, 68, 71-72, 84 Nazzal, Makki al-, 195 NBC News corporate defense-contract interests and,113-114 Gulf War and, 187 Iraq invasion and, 125, 126, 150 Lynch story and, 206 opinion poll, 223 Pentagon propaganda and, 118 Vietnam peace-process focus of, 141-142 Vietnam War images and, 139, 140-141,203-204 war cheerleading and, 131 war on terrorism and, 127, 144 Yugoslavia bombing and, 120 Neal, Richard, 125 Negroponte, John, 216-217, 224 neoconservatives, 30 'neutralize,' 125 New Media Monopoly, The (Bagdikian), 114 New Republic (magazine), 65-66, 101 Newsday (newspaper), 56, 57, 69, 90,117,118 NewsHour with Jim Lehrer (television program), 84, 85-86, 124, 125, 196, 199 news media. News Herald, 142 Panama Defense Force, 14, 16, 23-24 Panama invasion, 7, 8, 9-21, 35, 235 casualties of, 16, 19, 20, 193 media access and, 116-117 'Operation' name for, 134 Paraguay, 5 Paris Peace Talks, 140, 141-142 Parry, Robert, 80 Partido Revolucionario Dominicano, 4,7 Patrick, Jonathan, 202 Patriot cruise missile, 114 patriotism, 132, 144-145, 147 questions about war opponents and,155-166 PBS (Public Broadcasting System), 84, 122,124,196 Penn, Sean, 161, 162 Pentagon budget of, 113 deceptive briefings by, 55-57 euphemistic language of, 118, 119, 122, 125, 126, 143 future wars and, 219 Iraqi army rebuilding by, 213 Iraq invasion coverage and, 122-123 Iraq reconstruction contracts and, 92 Iraq war buildup coverage and, 50, 205-209 Iraq war casualties and, 147, 148 Iraq war embedded reporters and, 146,150-153 military contractor expenditures by, 88,93-94,113,114 military technology and, 187, 189, 191-192,199,200 news management by, 129-130 Office of Strategic Influence closure and,55-56 Index 309 'Operation' names and, 133-134 Panama invasion spin by, 17, 20-21 public-relations campaigns of, 177-184,195,202,205-209 Pentagon Papers, 32, 36, 38, 39 perception management. See names of specific presidents Primetime Live (television program), 209 Program on International Policy Attitudes, 154 propaganda American susceptibility to, 83 on America's moral purpose, 27-32 to dehumanize enemy, 203 diplomacy as, 4, 44-47, 111, 144 Gulf War and, 83-84 invisibility of, 24-26, 86 Iraq war buildup and, 50-51, 56-57 media and, 24-26, 78-80, 83-84, 122-124 military media consultants and, 118-119 against Noriega, 12 official dissimulation and, 55-58 perception-management techniques and, 26 post-September 11 (2001), 126-127,144-145 presidential protestations of peace and, 35, 38 Vietnam War buildup and, 103-109 war critics charged with, 160 'war on terrorism' phrase and, 169 See also public-relations campaigns Protsyuk, Taras, 152 public opinion Grenada invasion and, 22 Gulf War and, 64, 69 of Iraqis on American occupation, 214-215 Iraq war and, 100-101, 154, 158, 212,223,224,229-230 misperceptions of, 154, 182-183 310 Index public opinion (continued) public-relations campaign effects on, 68, 181-183 television Vietnam War images and, 134-136 Vietnam pullout and, 223 war coverage and, 131, 163-164 war opposition and, 155-166 war support and, 211-212 See also propaganda public-relations campaigns, 177-184, 195 Afghanistan food drops and, 202 Gulf War and, 68, 83-84, 87-88, 119, 143, 178 Iraq invasion and, 25-26, 50, 59-60,131,150-154,190 Lynch story and, 205-209 media help in, 25, 114 Yugoslavia bombing and, 68, 69 See also propaganda Putin, Vladimir, 94-95, 128 Qaeda, Al, 127, 128, 130, 193 Iraq's alleged link with, 56, 154, 181,182-183 Qatar, 197-198 Quigley, John, 4, 14, 15, 22 Raborn, William, 2,4 Rambouillet accords (1999), 41-44 Randall, Stephen J., 7 Rand Corporation, 156-1S7 Rather, Dan, 119, 131-132, 170, 204 Reagan, Ronald, 64, 161 Grenada invasion and, 21-23 Nicaragua and, 79-80, 81-82 Noriega and, 10-11, 16 Regarding the Pain of Others (Sontag), 146 Rendon Group, 177-178 Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, 56 Republican National Convention (Miami Beach, 1972), 165 Reston, James, 226 Reuters, 59, 70, 152 Rice, Condoleezza, 127 Richardson, Bill, 15 Riefenstahl, Leni, 84, 86 Ritter, Scott, 50 Roberts, Cokie, 170-171 Robinson, Walter V, 117 Rockier, Walter J., 110 Rocky Mountain News, 160 Rodgers, Walter, 123, 150 Rollins, Edward, 16 Romero, Oscar, 78 Rose, Judd, 12 Rosenberg, Howard, 145 Rudman, Warren, 88, 109 Rumsfeld, Donald, 28, 160, 161 Afghanistan war and, 144, 178, 193 on Fallujah civilian deaths, 197 former Iraq policy of, 71 on Iraq insurgency, 230 media briefings and, 55-56, 57, 59, 126,129 on war on terrorism, 168-169 Ruses for War, The (Quigley), 14 Russia, 29, 32, 89, 91, 128, 173 Chechen warand, 94-95 St. John, Ronald Bruce, 227 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 18, 84 St. Petersburg (Fla.) When I re turned to Iran a year later, the twentieth anniversary of the revolution, there were scores of new newspapers to read with actual news in them and the first Tehran Internet cafe to visit. 'The enemy of my enemy is my friend,' said Neil Livingstone, a terrorism expert, at a news conference in Washington in February 2005, announcing the formation of a U.S. lobbying group, the Iran Pol icy Committee, that advocates removing the MEK from the terrorism list. Once that was over (Bush lost), the news coverage faded, and GWBush.comdisappeared Making such decisions is a basic func tion of news judgment, and Moody had simply said that it was not necessary to air every word of Kerry's speech. 'The first person who made the call to say that George W Bush had been elected president of the United States was the person who 158 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY was in charge of Fox News's election analysis division, the people that crunch the exit polling numbers,' Nichols said in Outfoxed. 'I'm reading The Note, it was coming in my e-mail every day, 206 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY and it struck me that a sharp, policy-oriented analysis could get people- You could deliver a product, you could do it early, and you could try to help drive stories, you could help people have a perspective on the news, as long as it didn't become a sort of DNC-like Pravda publication.' A look at headlines issued each weekday dur ing October shows what the Report had become by the end of the campaign: October 1: 'Bush Administration Suppresses Facts, Spreads `Good News'' October 4: 'Rationale for War Goes Down the Tubes' October 5: '[Cheney] In Bed with the Axis of Evil' October 6: 'Cheney Has No Response to Halliburton Charges' October 7: 'White House i111 Wrong'' October 8: 'Bush's Jobs Record Is an Embarrassment' October 12: 'Low Wages Even Lower, Pensions Disappearing' October 13: 'Bush Can Run, but He Can't Hide' 208 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY October 14: 'President Makes Promises He's Already Broken' October 15: 'Republicans Running Scared' October 18: 'Bush Will Say Anything to Avoid Responsibility' October 19: 'Major League Deception' ('Bush brazenly misled the American people.. If one looks at the Foun dation's output in October 2004, some of the reports had a clear partisan edge-one was entitled 'Tax Hypocrisy: Kerry Makes the Case for Fundamental Tax Reform'-but most of the others were the actual stuff of Washington think tanks: October 4: 'Pressure Sudan to Halt Oppression in Darfur' October 4: 'A Conservative Vision for U.S. Policy Toward Europe' October 4: 'The Sociological Origins of'White-Collar Crime'' October 4: 'The Balanced Budget Amendment: The Wrong Answer to Runaway Spending' October 6: 'Revising the Payroll Survey Benchmark: What to Expect' October 7: 'The Real News in the Duelfer Report' October 7: 'Framing the Economic Debate' October 8: 'China's Orwellian Internet' October 8: 'Improving Trade with Uruguay: Cementing Economic Reforms and Advancing a Hemispheric Pact' October 8: 'Jobs: The Ultimate Pocketbook Issue' October 12: 'Details Matter: A Closer Look at Senator Kerry's Health Care Plan' October 12: 'An Examination of the Bush Health Care Agenda' 214 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY October 13: 'Anything but Avoidance: Citizens for Tax Justice's Blundering Corporate Tax Report' October 13: 'Insource More Jobs by Raising the H-1B Visa Cap' October 14: 'Homework: Congress Needs to Return with a Better Plan to Reform Homeland Security Oversight' October 15: 'The Battle for Fallujah Is Crucial for Iraq's Future' October 15: 'The U.S. Should Oppose Dictatorship in Belarus' October 19: 'Defense Transformation and the New Allies' October 19: 'The Principles of Immigration' October 19: 'Kofi Annan's Shrinking Credibility' October 19: 'The Senate and House 9/11 Reform Bills Both Miss the Mark' October 19: 'Why the Budget Deficit Should Not Stop Tax Reform: The Ensuing Struggle over'Neutrality'' October 20: 'Bush and Kerry: Stark Contrasts on National Security' October 20: 'Intelligence Reform: The Heritage Foundation's Research' October 21: 'Powell's Trip to Northeast Asia: Reaffirming Alliances in Tokyo and Seoul and Talking Straight in Beijing' October 21: 'Intelligence Reform Needs to Enhance Our Legal Capacity to Combat Terrorism' October 21: 'Scorecard on the Economy: A Guide for Policyrnakers' October 22: 'Google v. A longtime professor of journalism at the Univer sity of Texas at Austin, he was invited to Princeton University to serve as a visiting professor in the 2004-2005 academic year, and since 1992 he has edited a Christian-oriented news magazine, World. Voter Fund, 35-36 Rosenthaland, 82 Sorosand, 7-9 282 INDEX Florida vote recount and Fox News, 157-158 Foos, Richard, 35 Fox News bias of,135-137,149-151 and Florida vote recount, 157-158 former employees' stories about, 152-153 Franken on, 184 internal (Moody) memos, 153-157 Iraq War coverage, 155-156 judicial nominations coverage, 156 Kerry campaign coverage, 153-154 Nichols charges against, 157-158 The FOX Report with Shepard Smith, 135-136 Fox Watch, 135-138,150-151 Franken,Al on 2004 election results, 252-253 and Air America, 165,175, 176,177,179-180 allegation of Bush cocaine use, 183-184,186 'The Amazing Colossal President,' 183 author's interview of, 182-187 and Center for American Progress, 1-2,146,184, 191-193 criticism of Hume,184-186 Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them, 10,182 and MoveOn anti-Bush ads, 38 on organization of Left, 14 Sorosinterview, 73 From, Al, 264
Garin, Geoff, 84 Garofalo, Janeane, 38, 165,175 General Electric, 170 George Bush: The Unauthorized Biography (Tarpley, Chaitkin),171-172 Gibson, Mel,128, 128,132 Gillespie, Ed, 37 Gilliam, Jim, 145 Glantz, Gina, 81 The Godfather: Part II, 151-152 Golden West Financial Corporation, 8,199 Goldwater, Barry, 3,29 Gore, Al, 33-34,167, 168 Greenberg, Stanley, 204 Greenwald, Robert, 136-161, 270 after 2004 election, 251-252 author's attempts to interview, 160 Hollywood credits, 138-139 Outfoxed, 136-138, 149-160 support of political groups, 139 Uncovered. NOFX, 139 North, Oliver, 233 The Note, 205 286 INDEX The Official Fahrenheit 9/11 Reader (Moore),123 Olasky, Marvin, 233,237-238, 240-242 Open Society Institute, 62 Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on journalism, 136-138, 149-160 former Fox employees' stories, 152-153 Fox News bias, 136-137, 149-151 as guerrilla documentary, 137-138 Nicholscharges against Fox News, 156-158 opening scenes, 151-152 quotations from internal Fox memos, 153-157 reviews of, 158-160
PACs, 90 Pariser, Eli on 2004 election, 247-248 on Democratic Party, 260 on Exley, 42-43 on Fahrenheit 9/11, 39-40 on liberal majority, 10, 256 and MoveOn,19-20 9-1Ipeace.org,18-19,20 When ABC News revealed the cabinet-level meetings, years later, Bush confirmed that he knew exactly what the principals were doing, and he approved. Cheney would play the leading role in Deputy Attorney General James B. Comey (center) during an April 12, 2005, news conference announcing the indictments of three British nationals on terrorism charges. Hundreds of news stories in coming weeks put the onus for abuse at Guantanamo on Beaver and her boss. That was not all good news. He would have his diversity, Cheney or no. The president sent Andy Card to break the news October 2. News accounts often describe the Presidential Emergency Operations Center as invulnerable to nuclear attack, but two sources I interviewed said it is only two floors down. On Sept. 8, 2002, Cheney, Powell, Rice, and Rumsfeld discussed the tubes in televi sion interviews after administration officials leaked the news to the New York Times. Presidential News Conference, July 2, 2003, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relcascs2003/0720030702-3.html. Notes 390 televised interview in March 2008 with Martha Raddatz: Interview of the Vice Presi dent by Martha Raddatz, ABC News, Mar. 19, 2008. role as vice president, 51, 58, 387, 388-89 Cheney's weekly meetings with, 162 Cumey's meeting with, 317-19 compassionate conservatism of, 67 consensus valued by, 79 as Decide,, 52 details aggravating to, 73, 88 detainee policy and, 169, 176, 178, 193,351 Detainee Treatment Act signed by, 354 diplomatic solutions favored by, 368, 369 Index DUI arrest of, 18 education 'If , '', as goal of, 51-52, 68 faith-based initiatives of, 52 familiar faces preferred by, 26 foreign policy of, 64 in Fox News (:honey special, 382-84 global warming and, 82-85, 88-90 Guantsnarno and, 338-47 Harvey's briefing of, 333-34 Hurricane Katrina response of, 329-30 idealism of, 232, 250 Iran and, 368, 369, 374 Iraq Warand, 232-33,266,370,374 Keating and, 1 Klamath water dispute and, 212 Korea policy of, 240-41 lack of interest in budget management of, 259 leadership style of, 52-53 majority of popular vote lacked by, 614,2 military commissions authorized by, 162, 165, 166-68, 169 w technology and, 91 in 9/11 response, 114, 116, 117, 118, 120-27 North Korea and, 372, 373, 374 populist instincts of, 72-73,90 , -91, 256-57 and presidential authority, 101-2, 105,324-25 Rumsfeld fired by, 364 secrecy and, 6-7 Supreme Court nominees and, 358, 359 tax cuts of, 63, 65, 70, 71, 74-77, 256, 2G4-65, 268-70,271-75 terrorist threats ignored by, 111-13 in 2000 election, 31 263 tax bill if, 271-75 2004 elections and, 327-28 as unaware ofJustice Department revolt, 295, 296, 300, 306, 307, 3019-10, 318 vaccination campaign discussion and, 343-44 and vice-presidential .search, 63, 76 Chafte, Lincoln, 63-64, 65, 74-77,328, 378 Chalabi, Ahmed, 225, 237, 246-49, 332, 333 Ch svez, Linda, 48 (:honey, Dick, 31-32, 61, 156, 185, 224, 280, 312, 317,324,328,330-31,332,339,353,357 Abu Ghraib and, 190 access m senators of, 57 Addington and, 19, 138 Alexander and, 4-6 allies lost by, 378 as answerable only to history, 391-94 antiregulatory philosophy of, 38, 91 appetite for detail of, 7, 9, 73, 77, 9l, 202, 262 63 appointments and nmmnatfons role of, 52 approval ratings of, 328 as architect of Keating's political fall, 29-30 Armey briefed by, 215-22, 227, 249 and attorney general choice, 26-27 bipartisanship as viewed by, 6243 bitterness of, 370 Brigham Young speech of, 386-87 and Bush's global warming letter, 89-90 Bush's reliance un, 387, 388-89 Bush's weekly meetings with, 162 capital gains cuts and, 2644,6, 272-75 careful language of, 17 caricatures of, 384 85 Chaotic', letter to, 65 as chair of Budget Review Board, 2594,1 Christie interviewed by, 47-48 Clinton's executive orders reviewed by, 69 compulsion favored by, 161, 162 congressional leaders'navering with, 300-302 conservation seen as personal virtue by, 90-91 constitutional views of, 97-98, 101-2, 139 core principles of, 381, 384, 389 unterterrorism role of, 110, 112 Dark Side and, 160-61 decision-making process of, 887 decision points created by, 83-84 decisiveness of, 68, 236 declining health of, 370, 389 as defense secretary, 4, 7, 38-39, 41-42, 59, 138 on democracy, 391-92 'demonstration effect' and, 93, 231-33 Index Cheney, Dick (rant) detainee policy and, 168-70, 173, 177, 190, 193, 351,377 doctrinaire approach of, 325-26 DUI arrests of, IS economic policies of, 38, 53, 55-56, 69, 70-71, 72 74,255-75 e-mails secretly copied to, 189, 376-77 energy task force of, 81-82, 89, 90, 91-94, 104-7, 205-6 as enforcer, 64 environmental issues and, 82-85, 88-90, 195-213, 378 favorite movie of, 49 'first principles' and, 55-56 in Ford administration, 14, 16, 19, 33, 55, 59-6(1, 87-88, 100, 138, 177, 257-58 Fox News Special on, 381-84 global warming and, 82-85, 88-90 at GOP caucus, 255-56, 272-73 Greenspan's relationship with, 7t1-71, 260,267-08 growing isolation of, 385-86,389 Halliburton divestiture of, 21, 22,94-95 Hamilton admired by, 98 heart disease of, 18, 24-25, 4416, 370.71, security letter, 146 Index National Security Presidential Directive 9,113 Native Americans, 200-201, 212-13 Navy, U.S., 231 'Net Assessment on Military Balance in Korea,' 230 news media, 390,392 'new source' pollution rule, 359 Ncrurr,KCk 26,28-29,122 24 New York, N.Y., 261 terrorist targets in, 111,234 N,.YarkTmes, Kerry charged that he had been illegally ordered into Cambodia dur ing Christmas 1968: Kerry also described, for example, for the Boston Herald his vivid memories of his Christmas Eve spent in Cambodia: As recently as July 7, 2004, Michael Kranish of the Boston Globe repeated Kerry's Christmas in Cambodia story on FOX News Chan nel's Hannity & Colmes, indicating that it was a critical turning point in Kerry's life. Various Communist news papers around the world republished Daily World stories under many 136 UNFIT FOR COMMAND different banners. 209 INDEX

A ABC, 204n8 ABC News, 145 Abrams, Creighton Williams Jr., 64 Afghanistan, 188 African Americans, 115 Aiken, George, 120-21 Alexander, Roy, 189 America in Vietnam (Levy), 112,177 American Crisis (Paine), 108 Anderson, Tom, 48 Andrews, Kenneth J., 189 Andropov, Yuri, 124 An Thoi, 6, 7, 30; Kerry's reassignment to, 42-45, 199; Kerry's version of service in, 43-44; Swift operations at, 41-45 An Xuyen Province, 199 Armstrong, Dan V., 189 Associated Press, 159, 171, 202n7 B The Ballad of Reading Gaol lWilde), 16 Ballew, Ray Lewis, 189 Bames, Randy, 141 Bass, Alexander, 189 Bates, George 'M.', See Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 130, 133-34, 135; VVAW assassination plotting and, 141, 142 Ferris, William T., 190 Flynn, John, 16,117 Fonda, Jane, 69, 109, 110, 159 Forbes, C. Stewart, 174 Foreman, Wallace Benjamin, 190 FOX News Channel, 46, 145 Franke, William E.: Kerry at An Thoi and, 45; Kerry's military service and, 26-27; Kerry's Purple Hearts and, 29, 92; Kerry's war crime accusations and, 51; Sampan incident and, 58, 59-60; SBVT letter and, 188, 190 Franson, Robert L., 190 Freedom of Information Act, 130, 135, 141 free-fire zones, 17, 51, 54, 5811, 177 French, Alfred J., III, 190 Friedman, Max, 2051n1 Fulbright, J. William, 13, 99-108 Fulbright Committee, 99-108, 109, 114, 123-24,147-48, 175-77 Fulcomer, Paul F., 190 Fuller, Ray, 190 Fulton, Steve, 190 G Galanti, Paul, 107-8, 118 Gamy, Mike, 190 Gardner, Steve, 6; Christmas in Cambodia and, 48; Kerry at An Thoi and, 42; Kerry's military service and, 72-73; military service of, 29; Sampan incident and, 56-62; SBVT letter and, 190 Carlow, Bill, 190 Garrett, Les, 190 Geneva Convention, 153 Genghis Khan, 11, 103 Gisclair, Tony, 190 Gnaw, Robert, 190 Gober, Hershel, 171 Goldberg, Donald, 190 Golde, Morton, 190 Golden, Kenneth, 190 Good, Gerald L., 190 Good Morning America, 145 Gravel, Mike, 159 Graves, John C., 190 Green, Chutes E., 190 'Gremlin'. According to nu merous polls, including one conducted by Fox News in June 2006, 59 percent of Americans favor talking with Iran-even if it continues on the path to becoming a nu clear state. APPENDIX B Ranking of U.S. Cities on Likelihood of Hosting HI-TOADS Using Five Key Variables City State Census Abandoned City State Census Abandoned Camden NJ 1 N/A Allentown PA 37 N/A Buffalo NY 2 N/A Springfield MA 38 N/A Gary IN 3 N/A Jackson MS 39 N/A St. Louis MO 4 N/A Toledo OH 40 N/A Pittsburgh PA 5 N/A Milwaukee WI 41 N/A Youngstown OH 6 N/A Waterbury CT 42 N/A Baltimore MD 7 z Shreveport LA 43 N/A Philadelphia PA 8 1 Portsmouth VA 44 N/A Trenton NJ 9 N/A Hammond IN 45 N/A Flint MI to N/A Mobile AL 46 6 Dayton OH 11 N/A Akron OH 47 29 Cleveland OH 12 N/A Memphis TN 48 N/A Birmingham AL 13 N/A Bridgeport CT 49 32 Rochester NY 14 N/A Tampa FL 50 N/A Syracuse NY 15 17 Kansas City MO 51 N/A New Orleans LA 16 N/A South Bend IN 52 12 Detroit MI 17 4 Chattanooga TN 53 N/A Macon GA 18 N/A Duluth MN 54 N/A Scranton PA 19 N/A Topeka KS 55 N/A Hartford CT 20 N/A Lansing MI 56 N/A Louisville KY 21 9 Baton Rouge LA 57 N/A Albany NY 22 N/A Columbia SC 58 34 Newark NJ 23 N/A Norfolk VA 59 N/A Savannah GA 24 N/A Atlanta GA 6o N/A Erie PA 25 23 Des Moines IA 61 N/A Cincinnati OH 26 19 Washington DC 62 8 Richmond VA 27 3 Peoria IL 63 N/A Kansas City KS 28 5 Springfield MO 64 7 New Haven CT 29 14 Chicago IL 65 28 Knoxville TN 30 39 Independence MO 66 N/A New Bedford MA 31 N/A Fort Wayne IN 67 N/A Canton OH 32 N/A Lubbock TX 68 N/A Miami FL 33 N/A Indianapolis IN 69 N/A Evansville IN 34 N/A Little Rock AR 70 16 Beaumont TX 35 13 Jersey City NJ 71 N/A Providence RI 36 11 Tulsa OK 72 N/A [2701 State Census APPENDIX B State Census Abandoned City Abandoned City Montgomery AL 73 N/A Warren MI 114 N/A Rockford IL 74 N/A Tucson AZ n5 N/A Elizabeth NJ 75 N/A Los Angeles CA 116 N/A Worcester MA 76 41 Yonkers NY 117 N/A Oklahoma City OK 77 N/A Sacramento CA 118 N/A Corpus Christi TX 78 N/A Fresno CA u9 N/A Columbus GA 79 N/A Honolulu HI 120 N/A Columbus OH So 26 Berkeley CA 121 N/A Fort Worth TX 81 N/A Long Beach CA 122 N/A Jacksonville FL 82 15 Hialeah FL 123 N/A St. Petersburgh FL 83 N/A Seattle WA 124 N/A Paterson NJ 84 N/A Portland OR 125 N/A Houston TX 85 N/A Lexington KY 126 N/A San Antonio TX 86 20 Pasadena CA 127 N/A Grand Rapids MI 87 N/A Phoenix AZ 128 N/A Newport News VA 88 33 Lincoln NE 129 N/A Minneapolis MN 89 N/A Cambridge MA 130 N/A Boston MA 9o N/A Stockton CA 131 37 Dallas TX 91 N/A Madison WI 132 N/A Winston-Salem NC 92 N/A Albuquerque NM 133 N/A New York NY 93 N/A Riverside CA 134 N/A Nashville Charlotte NC 135 22 Davidson TN 94 N/A San Francisco CA 136 N/A Spokane WA 95 N/A Glendale CA 137 36 Omaha NE 96 N/A Stamford CT 138 N/A Cedar Rapids IA 97 N/A Alexandria VA 139 N/A El Paso TX 98 N/A San Diego CA 140 45 Hampton VA 99 N/A Garden Grove CA 141 N/A Hollywood FL too N/A Torrance CA 142 N/A Amarillo TX 101 30 Raleigh NC 143 N/A Fort Lauderdale FL 102 N/A Santa Ana CA 144 N/A Tacoma WA 103 N/A Livonia MI 145 N/A Huns[ville AL 104 N/A Virginia Beach VA 146 25 St. Paul MN 105 31 Anaheim CA 147 N/A San Bernardino CA 106 N/A Colorado Springs CO 148 N/A Greensboro NC 107 N/A Austin TX 149 N/A Wichita KS 108 N/A Las Vegas NV 150 N/A Denver CO 109 N/A Huntington Parma OH no N/A Beach CA 151 N/A Oakland CA t11 N/A San Jose CA 152 N/A Dearborn MI 112 N/A Fremont CA 153 N/A Salt Lake City UT 113 18 APPENDIX C Correlation Matrix for Five Key Variables Manufacturing House Income Population Vacancy change value change Correlation Change in percentage manu facturing employment (1970-2000) 1.000 Today's high school and college How to Prosper in the Age of the Obornonomics Offspring-1 Never Knew You students think iPods, designer cell phones, and $599 laptops are entitlements CBS News reported recently that echo boomers spend $170 billion a year- more than most nations' GDPs-and nearly every penny of that comes from the wallets of the very parents they now resent. NBC News and Wall Street Journal Poll, March 15, 2004, available via the Roper public opinion database ( http://roperweb.ropercenter 'President Participates in Social Security Conversation in New York,' news release, Office of the Press Secretary, White House, May 24, 226 NOTES TO PAGES 121-128 2005, available online at www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/05/ A Wal Mart executive involved in imports, Tim Yatsko, told the Asia Pulse news ser vice in may 2000 that Wal-Mart imported $3 billion in Chinese goods to the United States in 1999 and $3.7 54 Shortly after his fourth wedding, Osama told us news that I would have never expected. Through a fog I heard my doctor speak, bringing me news that brought forth a gasp. Most pleasant of all were the relaxing hours when my father sat with me and shared news of my mother, siblings, and other relatives living in Syria. local time in Africa, the news reported that there had been simultaneous car bomb 237 explosions at the United States embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya. 193-94 political/militant activities against, 145, 195 royal family and, 8z-83 Saudi Arabia's contamination by, 83, 84, 85, 3o6, 307, 309 Saudi Arabia's defense from, 82-83 Somalia against, 145 veil/abaaya in, z6-27 Visit to, z5-27, 302 women soldiers from, 84 al-Zawahari in, 130 U.S. embassies' attacks celebration for, 137 indictments after, 311 news of, 236-37, 311, 316 preparation for, 236 retaliation for, 237-41, 311 safe houses after, 239-40, 311 USS CoL attack, 277-78 al-Qaeda and, 277 - 78, 312, 316 al-Uteybi, Juhayman, 303 violence. Less than three weeks later, they heard the news Ban had been dreading: officers from the South Vietnamese military were ordered to report to a local high school. Her uncle rushed to e camp, gave her the news, and offered to pay her fees. After the develop ment project ended, he found occasional work as a freelance journal ist, providing small news items and photos to the official government press agency, but the pay was unreliable: 'You don't even set the price. The country, he observed, was of a mood to accept grim news.' See also Vietminh Lehrer, Jim, 22 Lemnitzer, Lyman, 39-40,47,52 Lincoln, Abraham, 199 Lincoln, Evelyn,117-18 Lincoln, George, 141 Lippmann, Walter, 10, 34,109,111-12, 115,166,198-99 Lodge, Henry Cabot, 25, 78, 80-81, 84-88, 90-92,102-3,105,107-8,113,117, 124,211 Logevall, Fredrik, 239 Long An Province, 105 Los Angeles Times, 22 Lovett,Robert, 6,9 Lowell, A. Lawrence, 6 285 INDEX Lowell, Amy, 6 Lukas, J. Anthony, 146 M MacArthur, Douglas, 11, 216,235 MacNeil7Lehrer NewsHour, The, 21-22 Maddox, USS, 121-25,127 Making of a Quagmire, The (Halberstam), 148 Malaysia, 110,139 Mann, Thomas C., 36,175 Mansfield, Mike, 59,109, 159-60, 236-37 Mao Zedong, 50 Marshall Plan, 11, 42, 195 Massachusetts Historical Society, 229 McCarthy, Joseph, 12, 237 McCloy, John J., 6 McCone, John, 78, 83-86,89, 91, 94,103, 105-7,118,125,154 McGarr, Lionel, 54-55 McGrory, Mary, 20 McMaster, H. R., 141 McNamara, Robert S., 20-22,25, 27 attrition and, 190-92, 202-9 Ball memo and 131-32 Bay of Pigs and, 39 Diem coup and, 78-79,85, 89, 91, 94 escalation of 1965 and, 164-65, 169, 171-72,176-77,184 'Fork in the Road' memo and 152-53 Hanoi delegation of 1997 and, 29 JFK and, 53, 55,59-62, 64, 66, 71, 81-84, 236,238 LBJ's early presidency and, 103-4, 106-8,111,114-15,120,135-36 South Vietnam visit of 1965 and, 207-12,214,216 Tonkin Gulf and, 126-28 McNaughton,John, 156-57,164,168 Mekong Delta, 82,106 'humanitarian' forces in, 58, 60 power project for, 170,198 INDEX Minh, Guong Van 'Big,' 87-88,106 Morgenthau, Hans,194-96 Moyers, Bill, 196-97, 200,217 Munich appeasement, 11 My Canh floating restaurant bombing, 190 N National Guard, 209 nationalism, 51,194 National Liberation Front (NLF), 150, 155,179, 186, 224 National Rural Electric Cooperation Association, 206-7 National Security Action Memoranda number 263, 84, 238 number 328,169 National Security Agency, 127 national security bureaucracy, 71-72,92, 94,96,101-2 National Security Council (NSC), 46-47, 50,54,64-65,77,126-27,142,156 NATO, 106 naval blockade or quarantine Cuba and, 73-75 Vietnam and, 108 Navarre, Henri, 49, 51 negotiated settlement, proposed, 130-31, 152-54,170,173,180,223 Nes, David, 108 Neustadt, Richard, 43, 91, 230-31, 234 neutralization, proposed, 110-13, 11 5 5-16, 132,136,140,153 New Frontier, 31 Newman,John,83-84 New Republic, 30 Newsweek,14,21,121 New York Daily News, 37 New York Times, 3,14, 17, 20, 37, 57, 111,146,235 New York University, 19 New Zealand, 190 Nguyen Dinh Uoc,127 Nhu, Madame (Tran Le Xuan), 76,80 Nhu, Ngo Dinh, 72, 76, 78, 80,87--98, 90-91,93 Nitze, Paul, 33-34,156 Nixon, Richard M., 4,25,31-32,109 Nolting, Frederick, 57-58 r North Vietnam. At the Foreign Ministry, the looters helped my ABC News colleagues find documents, and at the Olympic Com mittee, they showed us around the burned and looted structure that had once been Uday's fiefdom. Turkish newspapers announced the news with headlines boast ing 'Turkey most anti-American country in the world.' Hardly a week goes by (or so it seems) without some scholar or politician contributing an op-ed to a major news paper with an idea for dealing with one aspect or another of the Iraq imbroglio. In 2003,1 was a consultant for 188 ABC News, arriving in Baghdad April 14, five days after U.S. forces toppled Saddam's statue in Firdos Square. 190 A Note on Sources reporting in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Christian Science Monitor, the Boston Globe, the Kurdish Globe, the Guardian, the Turkish Daily News and the Star (Beirut), among others. So in 1930 he bought the English-language Shanghai Evening News for the princely sum of $2,500 and changed its name to the Post. Les said he hid nothing, put it all on the table, including bad news and his failings. The yelling at AIG, Les surmised, was because he feared they were trying to conceal bad news. K.K. Tse (1927-1997), chairman of AIU Hong Kong and honorary director, AIG George Moszkowski (1920-1952), president, AIU Latin America C.J. Smith (1920-1960), president, AIU West Coast Brock Park, partner, Starr, Park and Freeman Founding Family Executives Houghton (Buck) Freeman (1947-2003) president, AIU and AIG director Artemis A.W. Joukowsky II (1957-1987) president, Socialist Countries Division Stephen Y.N. Tse (1956-1996) vice president, Investments China Connections Frank Jay Raven, businessman Zao Pan Ziu, compradore 205 206 The Cast of Characters New Leadership from Outside William Youngman (1948-1968), president, C. V. Starr & Co. Gordon B. Tweedy (1948-1970), chairman, C.V. Starr & Co. Earl Carroll, president, Philamlife Paul McNutt, U.S. ambassador to the Philippines and chairman, Philamlife General Jesus Vargas, executive, Philamlife, later secretary general of SEATO Cesar C. Zalamea, president, Philamlife Edwin A.G. Manton (1933-1975), chairman, American International Underwriters (AIU) and AIG director Ernest E. Stempel (1947-1996), chairman, AIRCO and AIG director John J. Roberts (1945-1996), chairman, AIU and AIG director Maurice R. Greenberg (1960-2005), chairman and president, AIG, chairman, C.V. Starr and SICO Edward E. Matthews, vice chairman, investments and financial services (1973-2002) John Ahlers, vice president and treasurer, C.V. Starr & Company
Other AIG Executives Howard I. Smith, chief financial officer, AIG Jeffrey Greenberg, executive vice president, domestic brokerage, AIG Evan Greenberg, president and COO, AIG R. Kendall Nottingham, chairman, American Life Insurance Company Axel I. Freudmann, senior vice president, human resources Louis Lefevre, president, American International Insurance Co., Nigeria K.C. Shabani, president, American International Insurance Co. of Iran Christian Milton, vice president, Reinsurance L. Michael Murphy, counsel, SICO Gladys Thomas, vice president, communications, AIG John Wooster, special advisor, communications Ronald K. Shelp, vice president, AIG Helen Graham Park, decorator, AIG Next Generation of Leadership Martin J. Sullivan, president and CEO Donald P Kanak, vice chairman and COO Board of Directors Greenberg Directors Maurice R. Greenberg, chairman/president and CEO M. Bernard Aidinoff Pei-yuan Chia Marshall A. Cohen William S. Cohen Ellen V. Futter Donald P Kanak Martin S. Feldstein Carla A. Hills Frank J. Hoenemeyer Richard C. Holbrooke Martin J. Sullivan Edward S.W. Tse Frank G. Wisner Frank G. Zarb, chair, executive committee Post-Greenberg Directors Frank G. Zarb, chairman Martin J. Sullivan, president and CEO M. Bernard Aidinoff (left May 2006) Pei-yuan Chia Marshall A. Cohen William S. Cohen (not standing May 2006) Martin S. Feldstein Ellen V. Futter Stephen L. Hammerman Carla A. Hills (not standing May 2006) The Cast of Characters 207 208 The Cast of Characters Richard C. Holbrooke Fred J. Langhammer George L. Miles, Jr. Morris W. Offit Michael H. Sutton Edward S.W. Tse Robert B. Willumstad Publishing Business Randall Gould, editor, Shanghai Evening News and Post Ted Thackery, editor, various publications Samuel Chang, editor, Chinese version of News and Post Relatives of the Leadership Mary Malcolm Starr Nelle Vander Starr Marion Breen Clare Tweedy McMorris Robert P Youngman William S. Youngman III Nasrin Shabani (All represent AIG except where indicated) Robert Morvillo, Morvillo Abramowitz, Grand Jason, & Silberberg (M.R. Assurance Company is established is launched Companies am Starr establishes Al UO Shirr forms American expanded in Bermuda, which Asiatic Underwriters Stan expands AAU and Starr buys Shanghai Starr names throughout becomes SICO; also (AAU) in Shanghai Asia Life across Asia Evening Nears Mary Malcolm Latin America founded AIRCO 1919 1920-19306 1930 1937 19,105 1946 w F r 4 N 1931 1926 1933 1939 1946 I Q Starr forms Asia Starr opens AIU Stan darts publishing Headquarters are Stan companies Liklnsurance office in New York Chinese-language moved to are reopened in Company to do'hame lureign' version of Shanghai New York City China and Asia in Shanghai business Evening News alterJapanese defeated I 1949 AIUA is established, and the process of making Bermuda an insurance center begins Stan opens business to serve American soldiers in Germany I Stan opens business to serve American soldiers in Japan at General MacArthur. FOUR IRANIAN SQUARE DANCE T o UNDERSTAND IRAN'S UNIQUE system of government, think less of an organizational chart and more of an American square dance. 106 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES IRAN'S MARTIN LUTHER Khatami did not invent Iran's reform effort, known as the Second of Khordad Movement for the day on the Persian calendar when Khatami was elected, although he came to personify it. APPENDIX IRAN'S 2003 OFFER TO THE UNITED STATES , (with final edits) Iranian aims: (The US accepts a dialogue 'in mutual respect' and agrees that Iran puts the following aims on the agenda) • US PeAvlas From supporting ehange of the polities! 33773-dc22 2007052249 Manufactured in the United States of America First Edition In Memory George Becker Who bravely fought for the United states in war and peace Contents Prologue 3 Introduction: And Hold the Melamine, Please 6 Part 1: THREE MEGAFORCES One Modem Mercantilism 27 Two Corporatism 45 Three Elitism 78 Part II : THE PATH TO GLOBALISM Four Paradise: Created and Lost 103 Five Friedman I (Milton) 115 Six FriedmanIT(Thomas) 136 Part III: LOOKING FORWARD Seven Sovereignty 159 Eight Security 173 Nine Prosperity 184 Epilogue 204 Acknowledgments 207 Appendix 209 Notes 257 Index 269 DANGEROUS BUSINESS Prologue The extraordinary enigma we must seek to understand is that despite an expanding economy, violence increases, the number of those living in poverty grows and urban slums spread in cities throughout the world. Richard A. Falkenrath, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institu tion, who was special assistant to President George W Bush and ELITISM 1 93 1 senior director for policy and plans at the White House Office of Homeland Security. The leaders gave the NACC a mandate to devise concrete recommendations on issues of immediate ELITISM [ 97 1 importance, 'as well as strategic medium- and long-term advice to security and prosperity ministers and to the Leaders' In an unusual move, Bush asked the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Council of the Americas to choose the American delegates to the new trilat eral organization and also requested that those two business associations serve as the U.S. secretariat. The vulner ability of publicly held corporations to such attacks, and the related diver sion of resources, lasted for almost six years, ending in 1988, when state 1122 1 Dangerous Business governments, particularly Delaware, where many large businesses are incorporated, enacted security laws that were constitutional and that made hostile takeovers difficult, if not impossible. The 1978 act has multiple provisions to protect true national security documents. Eight SECURITY The United States spends more on national securitythan all other nations combined. Its approach to globalization, however, massively undermines the very security that money supposedly buys. The U.S. government, moreover, does not routinely inspect such com puters and software for 'Trojan horse' viruses, which can be triggered by SECURITY [ 175 1 telephone, Internet, or remote control. The department eventually agreed not to use the computers in secure functions and to cut its order to 15,000, but only after a strong protest from Michael Wessel and other members of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission and Representative Frank Wolf (R-Va.), The changes under SECURITY [ 177 way, he concludes, are structural; that is, the very foundation of the econ omy is shifting, and in ways that are undesirable. What this ignores is that consumers do not possess the information they require to make safe, rational deci- SECURITY [ 179 ] sions about their purchases, largely because food producers have actively withheld such knowledge and their government refuses to collect and publish such information. SECURITY [ 181 ] Their pay is low. In 2004, the Department of Homeland Security cited only three employers for possible violations. SECURITY ( 183 ] Securing the U.S. border is essential whether such reforms come in 2009 or 2013. to
Preserve Social Security 69,260,000 Microsoft Corporation 68,995,000 US TelecomAssn. of America Senior Vice President White House Office Counsel to Chief of Staff Ballentine,Roger S. Green Strategies Lobbyist White House Office Legislative/Congressional Affairs Berger,Samuel 'Sandy' StonebridgeInternational Chairman, Cofounder National Security Council National Security Advisor Presidential Transition Team Asst. Transition Director, National Security Appendix ( 219 1 Lobbyist Employer-Private/Public Title Biden, R. Hunter Oldaker, Biden & Belair Founding Partner AMTRAK Board Member Dept. to Preserve Social Security National Institutes of Health Legislative/Congressional Affairs Frost, Susan Education Priorities President Dept. to President National Security Council Senior Director, Eurasian Affairs Michel, Kyle G. Kyle Michel Law Firm Lobbyist White House Office SpecWAsst.to of Homeland Security Exec. of Homeland Security Special Asst. Director, Federal Affairs Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Employee/Staff Services Fuller, James Public Strategies Transportation Security Chief of Staff Administration Consumer Product Safety Chief of Staff Commission Furey, Jessica Whitman Strategy Group Partner Environmental Protection Agency Associate Administrator Gilbert,Alan Pharmaceutical Rsreh.&Mfrs. Secretary for Countemareotics Holman, Mark Blank Rome Government Relations Lobbyist Office of Homeland Security Deputy Asst. of Homeland Security Deputy General Counsel Office of the Attorney General Deputy Assoc.Attorney National Security Council Director,Iraq Reconstruction 236 ] Appendix Lobbyist Employer-Private/Public Title Lichtenbaum, Peter Steptoe & Johnson Bureau of Export Administration Asst. of Commerce Employee/Staff White House Office Employee/Staff Appendix [ 237 Lobbyist Employer-Private/Public Title Melley, Brendan Cohen Group Associate VP National Security Council Directorfor Counterproliferation Mencer, C. Suzanne Brownstein, Hyatt et a]. of Homeland Security Director, Domestic Preparedness Mendenhall, James Sidley, Austin et al. of Homeland Security Asst. of Homeland Security General Counsel Wilcox, Gary Morgan, Lewis & Bockius Partner Internal Revenue Service Deputy Chief Counsel Wild, Brian Nickles Group Lobbyist Vice President's Office Asst. to preserve Administration Budget Permanent Select Ways & Means Social Security on intelligence 3 K1ein,HerbertC. Bagdikian, Ben H., 21 Bank of America, 39-41,122 Bell, Chris, 88 Bennett, Delana,140 Birnbaum, Jeffrey H., 83 Blackstone Group, 39,41-2,89 BlackwaterCorporation, 53-4 Blinder, Alan S., 177,198 Boeing, 45-6, 53 Bogdawch, Walt, to Bohlen, Charles 'Chip,' 152 Bretton Woods Agreement, U2-14 British Petroleum (BP), 84 Brown, Ronald, 81 Buffett, Warren, 48 Bush, George H. W, 5, 43, 54,60-1,79,87, 131-2,145 NAFTA and, 115,124-5,127,131 Bush, George W, 5,60-1,145 o 147-9,186-7, 189 China and, 42-4 COOL and, 19-20 corporatism and, 47, 49,52-6,66,68,71, 74, 76-7 democratizing trade policy and, 17o-1 elites and, 79-80 IP and, zoo-1 lobbying and, 82-3,210,229-41,252n, 254-5 official secrecy and, 54-5,164-5,187 and safety of foods and medicines, 7,15 security and, 21,178,181 SPP and, 91-4,96-100 Walter Reed Scandal and, 49,51 WTO and, 17o,192 Calder6n, Felipe, 99-100 California, 116-17,167 Canada, 19,180 NAFTA and,124-6,128-31,134,183,194-5 SPPand, 91-100,194-5 State Department trade strategy and, 111, 113 tainted goods and, 6-8,13 L 270 J Index Canada (continued) trade policy changes and, 194-5 capital, 133, 195-7 human, 201-3 private, 195-6 public, 196-7 capitalism, 133,149-50 China and, 28, 41 Friedman and, 115,119, 121, 135 Capka, J. Richard, 73-4 Caribbean Free Trade Initiative (CAFrA), 140-1 Caro, Robert, 171 Carrefour,18-19 cartels, 16-18, 151-4 cattle ranchers, l7-r8 Center for Public Integrity, 83-4, 217n Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 42, 47, 81, 84,169 Cerberus Capital Management, 52,89 Chamber of Commerce, U.S., 44, 97,113, 210 ChemNutra, 9 ChenYongshun,200 China, People's Republic of, 61,143-50, 153-4,200 absolute advantage and, 139-40 apparel industry of, 134,143-4 competitiveness of, 30-2, 35, 40,131,133, 143-4 corporation-government relationships in, 16,154,192-3 financial leaden and, 31, 33-4, 39-44,91 human rights practices of, 145-7 mercantilism and, 27-44,154 prices and, 32-6,44,134,144 restructuring of, 30-2 round worlders and, 148-50,153 security and, 22, 30, 37,173-5,177,179-80 selective enforcement in, 41 tainted goods from, 8-15,179-80 technology and, 29-34,36-8,44,147 T. L. Friedman and, 136-7 trade and, 8-15,29,32-42,44,133-4,145-7, 149,187,194 U.S. deficit problems and, 187,194 U.S. influence and access of, 41-4, 84-6 WTO membership of, 28, 32,34, 40,44, 131,143-6,149,161 Cintra,Cintra-Zachry,55-6,58-9,71-3,76 Citizens Trade Campaign (CTC),129 civil service, 186-7,190 Clinton, Bill, 21,49,55,79-83,131-2,143,186 China and, 42-3,145-6 elitesand, 79-81 ethical standards and, 81-3,169 IP and, 200-1 lobbying and, 81-3,210,218-29,252n, 253-4 NAFrA and, 115,125,127-9,131 official secrecy and, 104-5 SPP and, 92-3 Clinton, Hillary, 82, 85,131 Codex Alimentarius Commission, 162-3 Cohen,Adam,168 Cold War, 79,152 end of, 136-7,147,149,164 security and, 21-2 Commerce Department, U.S., 36-7,51-2,80, 96,111,144,175-6,191 Commission on Immigration Reform (Jordan Commission), 181-2 Communists, Communist Party, 3,29-31,40, 113,122,146,152-4 comparative advantage, 138-40,153 competition, competitiveness, competitors, 16,20,84,119,123-4,139,151-4,176, 191-3,195-6 apparel industry and, 124,133,143-4 China and, 30-2,35,40,131,133,143-4 congressional districting and, 166-7 corporation-government relationships and, 154,192 corporatism and, 52, 56-7,65 financial leaden, 89-91 round worlders and, 151-2 SPPand,96-100 trade policy changes and, 188,191,195 comprehensive development agreements (CDAs), 65, 71 Congress, U.S., 5 t 16, 51-7,60,83-9,106-11, 147,149,155,159-60,185-90,205 China and, 35,42-4,145-6 COOL and, 19-2o corporatism and, 46-9, 51-5,57,62, 73-4, 76-7 corruption in elections for, 88,166-7 democratizing trade policy and, 170-2 ethical standards and, 87-8,169-70,186 fiscal policy changes and, 197-203 free trade and, 14o-1 human capital and, 201-3 improvingvotingprocess and, 168-9 lobbying and, 80-1,83-6,88,209-10,217n, 242-52 NAFFA and, 127-31,140-1 official secrecy and, 55,164-6 security and, 23,175,178-82 SPP and, 91, 93-4,96,98-100,194-5 State Department trade strategy and, 109-11,113-14 tainted goods and, 9,12-14 tariffs and, 108-10 trade policy changes and, 187-90,192, 194-5,201-3 Walter Reed scandal and, 48-9,51,62 World War I and,106-7 wTO and, 3,160,162-4,170,172 Consumers Union (CU), 179-80 corporations, corporatism,16-21,23,37-77, 106,131,138-40,148,151-5,166,169, 185-6,203-5,209 absolute advantage and, 139-40 in agriculture and food industries, 18-19 China and,16,30-4,37-44,146,154,192-3 COOL and, 19-20 and dangers of globalization, 4-5 elites and, 45-6, 79-81,154 financial leaders and, 88-91 fiscal policy changes and, 196, 198-200, 203 Friedman and, 118-19,135 global trade rules and, 15-16 highway privatization and, 55-77 hostile takeovers and, 121-2,124 FP and, 154,198-200 Levi Straussand, 120-1,133 lobbying and, 80-1,83-6,215-17 military functions of, 53-4 NAF rA and, 126-9 official secrecyand, 54-5 and reciting Pledge of Allegiance, 45-6 relationships between governments and, 16-18,46-54,151-4,192-3 round worlders and, 151-2 security and, 173-4,178 SPPand,97-100 stakeholders debate and, 118-19 tainted goods and, 6-9,13 trade policy changes and, 188,191-2 WTO and, 4,162,192-3 Council of the Americas (COA), 92-3,95-7 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), 42, 92-6,170 country-of-origin labeling (COOL), 19-20, 35,179 cultural rivalries, 105,136,148,150-1 Cunningham, Nelson W, 92 currency, currencies, 103,114,171,184,187 China and, 34-5, 38-9,44 developing countries and, 120,141-2 Curtis, Linda, 70-1 cyberwar,174-5 Daniels, Mitch, 58-60 DeFazio, PeterA., 74 Defense Department, U.S. (DOD), 66,145 china and, 42-3 corporatism and, 46-9,51-3,55 lobbying and, 81,84 procurement policies of, 37,149,174,178 security and, 21-3, 37,173-5,178 defense industries, 21-3,37,52,84 China and, 29, 31 security and, 22-3,173-4,178 DeLay, Tom, 76,87-8 Dell, 177 Democratizing U.S. Trade Policy, 170 Denmark, 12,113 developing countries, 10-11,141-4,192 apparel industry and, 120,124,133-4, 142-4 T. L. Friedman and, 136-7 seealso China, People's Republic of; India; Mexico diethyleneglycol (DG), 10 Doha Round, 163,170-1,190,193 dollar, dollars, 35,38-9,114,120,130,142, 171,176,184 Dubai, 39-40 DuPont, 106,119 Economic Consequences of the Peace, The (Keynes), 107,148 economy, economics, 3-5,18-21,60,79, 88-91,103-8,110,112,115-16,119-20, 123-5,147-55,164,169,184-7,193-4, 204-5,211 China and, 28-31,34,38,40,42,44,144, 154,194 corporation-government relationships and, 153-4 currencies and, 34-5 f 272 ] Index economy, economics (continued) developing countries and, 142,144 financial leaders and, 88-9o fiscal policy changes and, 196,198 flat-world, 136-7,141,144-5,147-50,153, 155 food and, 18-19 and globalization in history, 103-5 mercantilism and, 27-8 M. Friedman and, 115,120 NAFFA and, 124-5,127,130,140 Ricardo and, 139-40 .rounders,' flat world model of, 136-7,141,144-5, 147-8 fund managers, 88-91,195-6 Index L E73 1 gas, 56-7,68,196 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 113,127-9,163 General Electric (GE), 31, 43,46, 63, 97,119, 177 General Motors (GM), 31, 38, 46,97 security and, 173,177 Germany 16,39,52,85,104-7, 111,116 and globalization in history, 104-6,149, 177 round worlders and, 149,151 trade policy changes and, 187-8,194 Giffin, Gordon D., 93 Gingrich, Newt, 87 Giuliani, Rudolph, 71 globalization benefits of, 5,187 204 cant of, 14c-1 dangers of, 4-5,7,14-15,23,116,148 end of, 171 in history, 103-6,136,141,147,149,177 reining in excesses of, 187-203 Goldman Sachs, 39-42,58-9 Goldsmith, Sir James, 3-5, 34-5,135 Gomory, Ralph E.,155 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 152-3 Gore, Al, 49, 128,131,164 GovernmentAccountabilityOffice (GAO), 50,55,174,210 Great Britain, 3,18,22,103-8,111-13,145,154 Bretton Woods Agreement and, 112-13 and globalization in history, 103-4,149, 177 lobbying and, 85,210 Ricardo and, 28,138-9 World War I and, 105-7,177 Great Depression, 109-11,120,122,185 Greenspan, Alm,148,198-9 Gribbin, David James, IV, 58, 66, 71, 74,76 Guanajuato Proposal, 91-2 Halliburton, 47, 50, 53 Hammel, Chris, 70 Harding, Warren, log Harper, Stephen, 96,98-100 health, health care, 4, 21,118,123,127,137 163-4 human capital and, 201-2 Walter Reed scandal and, 48-53 hedge funds, 41,88-91,193 highways, privatization of, 55-77,196-7 Hills, Carla A., 93 Hooker, Jake, 10 hostile takeovers, 121-2,124 Hot Property (Choate), 32,151 Hufbauer, Gary C., 93 Hull, Cordell, 28,109-11,138 human rights, 145-7 Hunter, Duncan, 23 Huntington, Samuel P., 78-9 IAP Worldwide Services, 50-3 IBM, 38-9,155,177 ideology, ideologues, 164,170,178,185-6, 203-4 as round worlder,152-3 trade policy changes and, 191-2,195 immigration, immigrants, 4, 85,116,126,150, 171 free trade and, 140-1 security and, 180-3 SPP and, 91, 94,100,194 India, 98,134,148,200 lobbying and, 85-6 tainted goods from, 11-12, 14 T. L. Friedman and, 136-7 Indiana Toll Road, 57-60 industrial network clustering, 34,44 infant formula, 10-11 information technology, 36,137,144-5,175 infrastructure, 15, 55-77,196-7 innovation, 197-201 Intel Corporation, 36 intellectual property (IP), 94,106,109,126, 151 apparel industry and, 124,143 China and, 11, 14-15,32,44,154,200 democratizing trade policy and, 171-2 fiscal policy changes and, 198-201 free trade and, 140-1 International Labor Organization, 33 International Monetary Fund (IMF),112,114, 123 International Organization for Standards (IOS),162-3 International Trade Administration, 191 International Trade Organization (TTO), 112-13 Internet, 16-17, 68-9,136-7,145,147,150, 162 t 168,175,168,175,200 Interstate Highway System, 55-6,76 World war I and, 105, 107, 112 investment, investors, investments, 27,112, King, Alan D., 50 120-1,131,152 Krugman, Paul, 7,148, 180 China and, 30-4,37-41,43-4,146 Krusee, Mike, 63,67,74,76-7 corporatism and, 46, 52, 59, 73, 76 financial leaders and, 88-91 fiscal policy changes and, 195-7, 202 foreign direct (FDI), 30, 34,44,123,125-6, 134,139 in infrastructure, 196-7 institutional, 90-1 NAFFA and, 124-6,134 protectionism and, 108-9 social, 204-5 sovereign wealth, 37-41 speculation vs., 90-1,195-6 SPP and, 94-5, 98 Washington Consensus and, 123,126 Iowa, 167 Iraq, 51,82,182 corporatism and, 48-9, 53 U.S. invasion of, 149,174 Iraq war 21-2,48-9,79,186 labor, 3-5, 32-5,43-5, 108,118-21,130-44, 147-50,154,161-4,171,205 absolute advantage and, 139-40 China and, 15,32-4,37,41,43-4,131,133-4 o 136-7,143-4,150 and dangers of globalization, 4-5 fiscal policy changes and, 201-3 as human capital, 201-3 Levi Straussand, 116,118-19,121,124, 132-3,135 NAFFA and, 124-8,134,148-9 round worlders and, 149-50 security and, 176-7,180-3 SPP and, 91, 95-6,194-5 State Department trade strategy and, iii, 114 T. L. Friedman and, 136-9,141 trade policy changes and, 188,191-2, 194-5 Washington Consensus and, 123-4 WTO and, 3-4,159,161-3 Labor Department, U.S.,115,132,134,181, 202 'Lay of the Last Minstrel, The' (Scott), 78 Lenovo,38-9 Levi Strauss & Co., 116-21 California Gold Rush and, n6-I7 employment policies of,118,121,133 as hostile takeover, 121,124 production outsourced by, 132-3,135 social consciousness of,118-20,124,133, 135 Lewis, Jerry, 52 Lighthizer, Robert, 162-3 Li Rongrong, 30-1 lobbying, lobbyists, 147,159,166,185-6,190, 209-55 China and, 43-4,84-6 Congress and, 80-1, 83-6,88,209-10 0 217n, 242-52 COOL and, 19-2o employed by foreign governments and corporations, 80-6,210,215-17 ethics and, 81-3,88,169 Janecka,Ed,69 Japan, 3,21,27,30-3,39-41,52,61,77,104, 136,139,177,192-4,199 apparel industry quotas and, 142-3 China and, 13,15,30,32-3,37,40 corporation-government relationships in, 16,151-4,192-3 lobbying and, 81,85-6,209-10 round worlders and, 150-2 State Department trade negotiations and, 113-14 U.S. deficit problems and, 187,194 Jones, James R., 93,96 Justice Department, U.S., 16, 16,52,80,1(54,191, 210 Kaptur, Marcy, 51 Kaufman, Henry, 122 Kennedy, Edward, 209 Kennedy, John F., 84,114 Kennedy-McCain Immigration Act, 100 Keynes, John Maynard,148 and globalization in history, 104-5 round worlders and, 152-3 finances of, 83-5,88,210,212-17 top 100, 212-14 Washington's revolving door and, 8o-1, 169,209-11,218-55 Lockheed Martin, 47,53,96-7 Lynn, Barry C., 79,177 Macquarie Infrastructure Group, 55-6,58-9, 71-2,76 Malackowski, James E.,197-8 Mangia, Jim, 167 Mann, James, 145-6 manufacturing, manufacturers, 33-5,46, 105-8,113,123,130-4,139,154,198 China and, 30-1,33-4, 36-8, 43-4,131,134, 137,144 developing countries and, 141-2 Levi Straussand, 117-18,120-1,132-3 NAFFA and, 125,134 security and, 23,173,175-9 SPP and, 95-6 tainted goods and, 6-U trade policy changes and, 187-8,190 World War f and, 105-7 WTO and, 4,190 Marshall, George C.,185 meat, meatpacking, 9, 13, 17-20,98, 105, 176, 179 media, media industry, 83,125,189 China and, 43-4,146 corporatism and, 21, 47, 55, 63, 70-2, 76 economic concentration in, 20-1 elites and, 78-9 ethical standards and, 87-8 SPP and, 91,99-loo Medicare, 115,165 medicines, 21,31,95-6,106 safety of, 7,10-15,19,23,171, 178-80 Meissner, Doris M., 93 melamine, 8-10,18 Menu Foods, 6-9 mercantilism, 27-44,108,154 Mexico, 4,19,54-5,144 loan defaults of,122,130 NAFTA and, 92,124-31,134,148-9,183, 194-5 security and, 180-3 SPP and, 91-2, 94-100,194-5 tainted goods from, 12-13 Texas highway privatization and, 61-2,64 trade policy changes and, 194-5 Washington Consensus and, 125-6 Microsoft, 31,147,151,177 militarism, 53-4,105,136,148-9 Mittal Steel, 97-8 Molina, William H., 72 monopolies, 16,30,46,105-6,108 ? 136,148, 151-2,193 most-favored-nation (MFN) status, 145-7 Mountain Oyster Club (MO), 17 Mulroney, Brim, 129-31 MultifibreArrangement (MFA),142-3 Murdoch,Rupert,43,87 Nader, Ralph, 45-6 Naim, Mois€s,122-3 National Archives and Records Administra tion, 54,165-6 nationalism, 148-9 Navarro, Peter, 32-5 New Deal, 111, 141, 191 NewYork Stock Exchange (NYSE), 38, 41, 90, 195 Niles, Thomas M. T, 93 Nixon, Richard, 114-15,188, 204 Noonan,Tom, 17 North American Competitiveness Council (NACC), 96-9 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),124-31,170,183 Congress and, L27-31,140-1 creation of, 93,115,124-5 Provisions Of,125-6,129 round worlders and, 148-9 SPP and, 91-5,100,194-5 as template for future pacts, 127,134,192, 195 Texas highway privatization and, 62, 75 Nossaman Guthner Knox Elliott LLP, 64-6 Oberstar, James, 74 Office of Management and Budget (OMB), 54,58,184-5 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), 42-3,80-1,114,190-2 Ohio, 167 [276] Index oil, 21, 47, 61, 82, 94,151 China and, 29, 31, 38 lobbying and, a4,209-10 prices of, 120, 122, 134 Otellinf, Paul, 36
Panama,10-11 Pastor, Robert A., 93-4 Paulson, Henry, 29,40-2 pensions, pension funds, 4, 88, 90,132 human capital and, 201-2 Perot, Ross, 81,127-8 Perry, James Richard'Mck, 60-4, 66-9, 71-6 Peters, Mary, 58,65-7,71, 74, 76 Peterson, Peter, 42,89 pet food, 6-11,18,179-80 Pham, Nam D.,198 Pledge of Allegiance, 45-6 Presidential Records Act, 54,165-6 price, pricing, prices, 16-19, 59, 77, 91,103, 106,142 cartels and, 16-17 china and, 32-6,44,134,144 Levi Straussand, 119-20 of oil, 120,122,134 round worlders and, 151-2 security and, 22,178 trade policy changes and, 188,191 production, products, 16-19,79,98,106-8, 123,132-9,141-4,147,151,153-5,191-3 apparel industry and, 117-19,132-3,135, 142-3 China and, 30-2, 34-7,40,133-4,137,144, 154 corporation-government relationships and, 16-17,153-4 fiscal policy changes and, 198-9 and globalization in history, 103-4 NAFFA and, 148-9 security and, 21-3,173,175-6,178-9 T. L. Friedman and, 136-8 trade policy changes and, 187-8,191-2 World War l and, 106-7 profits, 19,118-21,123-4,135,152,174,192,195 cartels and, 16-17 China and, 31, 40-1 corporatism and, 46, 55, 57,59,65-6 financial leaders, 89-91 Levi Straussand, 118-20,124 Texas highway privatization and, 65-6,73 public-private partnerships (PPP), 56-8,71, 74,77 racism, 105,136,148,150,183 Reagan,Ronald, 16,54,79,139 Friedman and, 115,120 Stockman and, 184-5 transportation and, 57-8 religion, 150-3,167,205 research and development (R&D), 36, 40, 46, 79, 91,152,155,177,196, 200 Ricardo,David, 28,138-41,153 Roberts, Paul Craig, 139-40,148 Roosevelt, FYanklin D., 28, 56, 110, 112, 151, 185,190-1,205 Roosevelt, Theodore, 138,151,185 round-world economics, 148-54 Royal Ahold,18-19 Rubenstein, David M., 46 Russell, Phillip,64-5 Russia, 11,104-6,148 Salinas de Gortari, Carlos,124-5,130-1 Samuelson, Robert J.,181,183 Scahill, Jeremy, 53 Schlesinger, Arthur M. Jr., 209 Scott, Jeffrey J., 93 Scott, Robert E.,134 Scott, Sir Walter, 78 secrecy, secrets, 89,164-6,187,189,195,200 corporatism and, 54-5 of elites, 91,100 NAFTA and,125-6 security,21-3,79,108,114,173-83,204,211 China and, 22,30,37,173-5,177,179-80 cyberwarand, 174-5 and dangers of globalization, 4-5 defense industries and, 22-3,173-4,178 immigration policy and, 180-3 official secrecy and, 165-6 procurement strategies and, 22-3,37 and safety of imported goods, i78-8o SPP and, 95-6,194 trade deficits and, 175-7 Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP), 91-100 CFR taskforce on, 92-6 COA and, 92-3, 95-7 criticisms of, 99-100 Index 277 1 NACC and, 96-9 NAFFA and, 9i-5,100,194-5 trade policy changes and, 194-5 selling, sales, 11,19,31-2,71 China and, 31,38-9 corporatism and, 45-6, 58-61 developing countries and, 142-3 Levi Strauss and, i16-2o, 135 service, services, 4,9', 126,141,198 China and, 28, 30, 39 corpomtism and, 46, 53 security and, 22,176-7 trade policy changes and, 188-90 Shapiro, Robert J.,198 Smith, Adam, 20-2, 27-8,44,108,120,138, 141,151 Smoot-Hawley Tariff ,109-10 social programs, social issues, 118-20,123-4, 1,33,135,201,204-5 sovereignty, 5,122,159-72,204 democratizing trade policy and, 170-2 elections and, 166-9 ethical standards and, 169-70 official secrecy and, 164-6 WTO and, 159-64,170 Soviet Union, 30, 79,113-14 collapse of,147-8,152-3 stakeholders debate, 118-20 Stall, David and Linda, 67-71,75 State Department, U.S., 9, 53, 81 Chinaand,42-3 security and, 174-5 trade strategy and, 28,109-11,113-14 Stockman, David, 184-5 Stokes, Bruce, 170,172 Supreme Court, U.S., 48,121,126,166 Switzerland, 23, 104,111,130 lobbying and, 85, 210 taxes, taxpayers,83,89,110,114-15,123,172, 184,193,195-6 China and, 31,34, 36,44,137 corporatism and, 46, 55-8,60-1,66-8,76 fiscal policy changes and, 196, 196,203 on gas, 56-7,68,196 on U.S. trade, 187-90 technology, 3-4, 79,96,103-6 r 109,136-9, 144-8,151,154-5,171,200 ATPs and, 36-7,175 China and, 29-34,36-8,44,147 and globalization in history, 103-4,106 Japan and, 32,40 security and, 22-3,173,175-6,178 T L. Friedman and, 136-8,144-5 terror, terrorism, termrists,15,142 security and, 175,180-1 on September 11, 7, 92, 165 Texas, 60-77,88 Tonelson, Alan, 23,176-7 trade, 4-16,82,103-16,123-6,201-5 Bretton Woods Agreement and, 112-13 changes in U.S. policies on,194-95, 201-3 China and, 8-15,29, 32-42,44,133-4, 145-7,149,187,194 and dangers of globalization, 4-5 democratizing policy for, 17o-2 developing countries and, 124,141-3 in foodstuffs, 6-15,19-20,179 as foreign policy tool, 28,111,113-14 foreign taxes on, 187-W free, 28,108-12,123,137-8,140-1,145-7, 154-5,170,205 and globalization in history, 103-4 human capital and, 201-3 Levi Straws and, 1-24,133,135 mercantilism and, 27-8 M. Friedman and, 115-16 protectionism and, 99,107-10,115-16,138, 148,171 reciprocal agreements in,109-11,141 Ricardo and, 139-41 round worlders and, 148-9,152 rules-oriented vs.results-oriented,154-5 security and, 21,173-80,183 SPP and, 94-5, 98-9 tariffs and, 16,308-10,113,115,125-6,141, 171,189,194 Texas highway privatization and, 61-2,65 T. L. Friedman and, 137-41 U.S. deficits in, 4, 48,114,120,134,146-7, 163,171,175-7,187,192,194 U.S. surpluses in, ill, 134,146 World war I and, lo5-7,109 transport, transportation, 18-19,188 China and, 29, 31, 33-4,154 highway privatization and, 55-77,196-7 SPP and, 94-6 Trans Texas Corridor (TTC), 67-77,197 finances of, 61-4,66,72 Treasury Department, U.S., 52, 111, 120,130, 148,202 L 278 Index TYeasury Department, U.S. (continued) China and, 29,40-2 and countries in default, 122-3 Underwood-Simmons Tariff Act, 109 United States budget deficits of, 48,147-8,184-5,187 changes in fiscal policies of, 195-203 changes in trade policies of, 184-95, 201-3 U.S. India Political Action Committee (USINPAC),85 value-added tax (VAT),187-90 Wal-Mart, 8-9,18,35,61,97,137,144,178 Walter Reed Army Medical Center, 48-53 Washington, George, 107-8,161, 205 Washington Consensus, 122-7,130 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 20-1,44,108, 138,151 Webber, Alan M., 27,44 wheat, wheat gluten, 8-9,18,176 Wilson, Woodrow,18, 18,109,151 World War I and, 106-7,112 World Bank, 42, 112,114,123 World Trade Organization (VIM), 127-31, 142-6,172,187-90,192-3,201 China and, 28, 32, 34,40,44,131,143-6, 149,161 creation of, 3,113,115,127-9,142,161 Goldsmith's opposition to, 3-5 IOS and, 162-3 NAFTA and, 127-9 problems of, 161-3,192 reforms for, 163-4 security and, 179-8o trade policy changes and, 188-90,193 U.S. membership in, 3-4,159-64,170, 179-80 World War 1,103-7,109,149-5 British blockade of Germany in,105-6 and globalization in history, 103-6,136, 141,149,177 peace negotiations in, 106-7,112 World War II,17,21-2, 112,116-17,144,178, 185,187,189, 202 Wright, Tim, 87 Wriston, Walter, 122 Yarema, Geoffrey S., 64-5,76-7 Zedillo Ponce de Le6n, Ernesto,130 A NOTE ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Pat Choate is the author of Hot Property and Agents of influence and the coauthor of The High-Flex Society; America in Ruins; Being Number One, and Save Your Job, Save Our Country with Ross Perot. And that also will allow us to free up the kinds of resources that will make us safer here at home because we'll be able to in vest in port security, chemical plant security, all the critical issues that have already been discussed.' He cites among his achievements amending the PATRIOT Act at the beginning of 2006 so that 'we strengthened judicial review of both National 34 I FLEECED Security letters ... Economic problems 35% War in Iraq 21% Health care and costs 8% Fuel, gas costs 8% Immigration, illegal aliens 6% Jobs, unemployment 5% Government corruption, incompetence 5% Moral decline 4% Education 4% Inflation, cost of living 4% Poverty, hunger 3% National security 3% Terrorism 2% Source: Gallup Poll, March 2008. Michael M. Kashkoush Post Office Building March 10 • Endorsing the establishment of April as National 9-1-1 Education Month • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 22 Sussex Street in Port Jervis, New York, as the E. Arthur Gray Post Office Building • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 701 East Copeland Drive in Lebanon, Missouri, as the Steve W Allee Carrier Annex Post Office Building March 11 • Congratulating Iowa State University of Science and Technology for 150 years of leadership and service • Congratulating the University of Kansas football team for winning the 2008 FedEx Orange Bowl and having the most successful year in program history 96 I FLEECED • Congratulating the women's water polo team of the University of California, Los Angeles, for winning the 2007 NCAA Division I Women's Water Polo National Championship, and congratulating UCLA on its 100th NCAA sports national title, making it the most accomplished athletic program in NCAA history March 12 • Honoring the 200th anniversary of the Gallatin Report on Roads and Canals, celebrating the national unity the Gallatin Report engen dered, and recognizing the vast contributions that national planning efforts have provided to the United States March 13 • Recognizing the exceptional sacrifice of the 69th Infantry Regi ment, known as the Fighting 69th, in support of the Global War on Terror March 31 • Supporting the observance of Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month April 1 • Expressing the sense of Congress that the fatal radiation poisoning of Russian dissident and writer Alexander Litvinenko raises significant concerns about the potential involvement of elements of the Russian government in Mr. Litvinenko's death and about the security and proliferation of radioactive materials • Expressing support for a national day of remembrance for Harriet Ross Tubman • Supporting the goals and ideals of Borderline Personality Awareness Month • Supporting the goals, ideals, and history of National Women's His tory Month THE DO-NOTHING CONGRESS IS STILL DOING NOTHING! ' Kirk says he told Zoellick, 'Think of the embarrassment if the UN Security Council approves three U.S. COMPANIES AND FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB I 115 separate sanctions, and the United States imposes its own unilateral sanc tions and three blocks away the World Bank cuts a check to the Ahmadine jad government.' And the latest report on 2007 indicated continued state terrorism towards its citizens: 'Security forces continued to commit extrajudicial killings with impunity, and pro-government militia groups were responsible for the harassment, killings, and disappearances. Africa 2/2/05 Meeting request to Tom Woods, Deputy Secretary of African Af fairs, U.S. Department of State 2/2/05 Meeting request to Cindy Courville, Special Assistant to the Pres ident and Senior Director for African Affairs, National Security Council 2/3/05 Meeting with Walarigaton Coulibaly, Program Assistant; Grant Godfrey, Program Officer, Marla Zometsky, Program Officer; National Democratic Institute 2/4/05 Call to Silvia Aloisi, Reuters 2/14/05 Meeting with FlorizelleLiser,Assistant, U.S.T.R.Africa What does it say about how Washington works that high-level officials THE DUBAI-ING OF AMERICA I 161 in the State Department and National Security Council would spend so much of their time with lobbyists over a private lawsuit involving the quasi dictator of a small country? Taxpayers shouldn't be requiredto subsidize the insurance when people are voluntarily taking the risk of living in vulnerable homes in 218 I FLEECED wide Life Insurance Company and the Security Benefit Group, sued the teachers' union for endorsing the policies. per cent, according to the suit, making it exceedingly difficult for investors to make money in the plan:' HOW THE TEACHERS' UNION RIPS OFF ITS MEMBERS I 219 Compare the Valuebuilder annuity plan endorsed by the NEA and sponsored by the Security Benefit Life Insurance Company with mutual funds with similar investment strategies offered by Vanguard Group: After five years in each program, here is how the returns would compare if you invested $10,000: In Foreign Stocks Valuebuilder/NEA $11,892 Vanguard Global Equity $18,167 Valuebuilder/NEA Vanguard Wellington Source: Los Angeles Times. To the lenders, this looked like a low-risk situation: after all, if their borrower de faulted, the only loser would be the investor who had bought the mortgage backed security. For his pains, Vance was 'imprisoned by the U.S. military in a security compound and subjected to harsh interroga tion methods:' He was 'classified a security detainee,' the AP reports, held in solitary confinement for '97 days in a U.S. military prison'-Camp Cropper in Baghdad, the same prison that once held Saddam Hussein. 322 I NOTES 145 'Security forces continued': Ibid. No Daalder, a former member of Clinton's National Security Council who is now at the Brookings Institution, has divided the people jostling for 1'2 • THE RIGHT NATION influence around Bush into three categories: 'democratic imperialists' like the neocons; 'doveish pragmatists' like Powell; and 'assertive nationalists' like Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice, who agreed with the neocons about Amer ica's need to look after its own interests more aggressively but who had no patience with nation building, spreading democracy and the like. In the summer of 2002, the White House formalized its position, first in a speech by Bush to the graduates at West Point on june I, and then in a new National Security Strategy William F Buckley, Jr., and the National Review, 1958 FriedrichHayek,lg6o The Barry Goldwater whom Hillary Rodham and joan Didion fell for Robert Welcb, the founder of tbe john Birch Society, 1966 Campaign buttons, 1964: Goldwater lost by a landslide. Under the Bush Doctrine, America's security relied on being an unchallenged hege mon-comfortably more powerful than any other power. The National Security Strategy of 2002 undertook that American forces 'will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military buildup in the hope of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States.' Conservative policies on education, Medicare and Social Security all try to give voters more choice over the use of public funds. The Democrats, on the other hand, are against both school choice and the partial privatization of Social Security.
THE GUN AND THE BALLOT BOX The GOP's strongest card o£ all is national security. The most common worry is security (hence all those gates, though there is not much evidence that gated communities are safer than nongated ones). Some residents have to cough up for maintaining the roads, pavements and streetlights, looking after the parks and providing security. But most voters rally to the Republican message of low taxes, tough sentences for criminals, strong families and a hard-hitting approach to national security. W Bush and, 134,141, x44-50 at Patrick Henry College, 192 money and, 331-32 patriotism and, 326 revivalism in,325 social purpose served by 75 Religious Right, X2,14,15,20, 83-85, 93,110, 106,122,185-89,x62,263-64,268,340, 341, 345, 381 G. H. W Bush and, 34, 96, 98, 99 G. W Bush and, 127,146-47,149,184189 in California, 124-25 homeschooling and, 189,190-94,285 Israel supported by, 215 Reaganand, 90-90,92 September itand, 186,214-15 social conservatives and, 84 Renaissance weekends, l8 Reno,Janet,1o6,178 rent control, 49 Republican Convention (2ooo),132, 132,147 Republicans, Republican Patty, 9,337,382 G. W Bush's differences with, 1 3 2 business and, 244,253 in California, 243-44,265-67 campaign contributions raised by, rill, 232 C hoice and, 244,245,246 Christian Coalition and, 112 Clinton's triangulation strategy and, u7,108 in Congress, 22, 95,106, 228, 231, 248, 258, 365,380 Contract with America of,125-x6,117, Izz, 125,254 contradictions and factions in, 195, 251-54, 267-69 Democrats' strengths comparedwith, 229-48 De-Y, 42-43 Eisenhowerand,41,42 extremism and intolerance in,122-23, 251, 262-64 Focus on the Family and, 188 future of 227-48, 249-69 Goldwater and, 54,55 government and, 9,259,268 government spending by, 256 heartland values vs. free-market principles 121,252,253-54,267 in House, 2, 57, 93,101,115, 231, 232, 365 immigrants'support for, z4o Iraq Wu suppott among, 220 Johnson and, 63 Latinos and, 238-39,240-41,277 lobbying by,257-59 McKinley and, 227-28, 248 marriedvotersand, 242-43 national security and, 244, 246-48, 268-69 as natural party of government, 22 New, 9 Nhton and, 68 Northeastern, 8,10, 27, 40, 52, 54, 87, 253, 264, 295, 324 355 NRAsupport for, no-t1 partisan, too, 101 planned communities and, 351 professionals and, 24244 property ownership and, 244, 245 racial issues and, 53 - 54, 250, 262-63, 271, 277 religious wing of; see Religious Right Rockefeller,54 rule of two-thirds and, 356 schoolvouchersand, 276-77 inSenate, 57,198,z31,232,240,365 Southern, to, 22, 27, S2,53, S4,85-87, 93,1zz, 251,253,262-65 Sun Belt, 10, 40,123-26, 265,295 Taft,42 tax opposition and, 1 7 6 Texan, 31-33,39 Tones and, 334-35 transformation of, 27, 40, 268 voter outreach by,233,281-82 women and, 282-85 working-class voters and, 236, 237 youragpeople and, 270,271,278-82 see also conservatives and conservatism, American Republicans in Name Only (RINOs),188 retirement, 255, 381, 396 see alto Social Security retirement communities, 35435 2 Reuther, Walter, 245 Reynolds, Glen, 164 Rhode Island, 2o 462 • INDEX INDEX • 463 Rice, Condoleezza, 143, g6, Ibo, 201, 202, 208, 218-21, 263, 271, 284 religion and, 146 Rich, Marc, 121,133 Richards,Amx, 37,38,137,372 Richardson, Bill, 357 Ridge, Tom, 26o Right, 1 5 1-,348-49 tee also conservatives and conservatism; conservatives and conservatism, American RigbtMan, The (Foiim),145-46 Riordan,Richard, 124-25,265,266 riots, 65 Rivera,Geraldo,x63 Road to Serfdom, The (Hayek), 48 Robertson, Pat, 54, 84, 96,104,11x,122, 132, 146,z86,215,251, 252 Robertson, Willis, 54 Robinson, Gene, 292 Robinson, Kayne,177-78 Robinson, Tommy, loo Robison, James, 138 Rockefeller, Happy, 55 Rockefeller, John D., Sr., 329 Rockefeller, Nelson, 8, 55,71 Rockwell International, 79 Rodriguez, Gregory, 240 Roe v. 386,388 Santomm,Rick, 183-84,185,194,258 Saturday EveniagAort, 56 Saudi Arabia, 215,217,221,297,359,367 Sayce, R. A., 346 Scaife, Richard Mellon, 78,107,108, x61,169, x95,385 Scalia, Antonin, 93 Schiavo,TerriSchindler,17 Schifiren, Lisa, 286 Schlafly Phyllis, 8x,183,184, 285 Schlesinger,Arthugjc,395-96 Schmidt, Helmut, x53 School ofAnti-Communism, 59,61 schools and education, 73, 83,103,117,12247,345, 352, 381 G. W Bush and, 38,131, 277 busing and, 65, 66, 83,275 Christian Coalition and, x11 Eisenhower and, 41 homeschooling,189-94,285,381 Johnsonand, 64 misdemeanors in,302-3 prayer in, 65,85, iM,187, 191, 264,3r6 212, 214, 218, 224, 296, 297 Social Security Act, 323 government spending after, 256 social services, see government programs Immigrants and, 241 Sombart, Wemer, 327 Republican Party and, 2 46, 2 47 - 4 8 , Sommers, Christina Hoff,168, 168,286 268-69 Soros, George, 385 Saddam and, 215-16 Souter, David, 184 7, 246, security needs after, 260-6c South, 12,x4,20,40,47,50,64,250,316, support for Israel after, 209 320-21, 355,382 259, worldview ofAmerica after, 222,394 Democrats in, 10, 23, 47,52-54, 85-87,235, Shampoo, 68 321 share ownership, 245 F l a unted communities in, 351 Sharon, Ariel, 23,204, 209, 296 race and, to Sharpton, AI, 325 religion in, 332 Shaw, George Bernard, gx Republicans in, 10, 22 t 27,52,53,54,85 -8 7 , Sheinbaum,Stanley,372 93,122, 251, 253,262-65 Shulsky, Abram,156 see also Sun Belt Shultz,George, 157 SouthAfiica, 368 Siegehnan,Don,369 South Carolina, 53 Sierra Club, r8c, Southern Baptist Convention, 83-84,147 silent Majority, 14, 14,44 Soutbern Partisan, 162 private, IRS decision on, 83,84 science in, x59-60,264 sexism in,168 vouchers for, r7,157, 158,170, 261, 273. Congress had created new social programs (food stamps, Medicare) and expanded old ones (Social Security). It also meant enhanced economic security-mainly job security, but also protection against impoverishment from sickness, disability and old age. 199 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH IV ': hat Americans generally want from their economic system a Whatre higher incomes and ample security in their everyday lives. By the mid-2020s, the Social Security Administration expects economic growth to slow to about 2 percent annually. Since World War II, the expansion of the welfare state has provided psychological and economic security for the un employed, the poor, the disabled and the elderly. To sacrifice some growth for other goals--added security, less inequality, diminished global warming-might initially seem a good bargain. But the welfare state's mainstays are programs for older people: Social Security, Medicare (health insurance for those sixty-five and over) and Medicaid (mostly nursing home and care for the elderly poor). with rapidly rising health-care spending, this balloons the cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. There are only three: (1) deep cuts in other gov ernmental programs-the FBI, defense, scientific research, environ mental regulation, college aid, highways and everything else government does; (2) implausibly large government budget deficits; and (3) sizable cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid by raising eligibility ages and reducing benefits.8 229 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH that the normal eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare should gradually be raised to seventy by, say, 2025 or 2030. Social Security benefits should also be trimmed for more affluent retirees; and even when people go on full Medicare, most should pay more-through higher premiums, deductibles and co-payments-than they do now. Both Social Security and Medicare are mainly pay-as-you-go programs.Yesterday's For example, we should increase the fuel efficiency of cars and trucks because our dependence on unreliable foreign oil represents an ob vious security problem. See Consumer Price Index (CPI) creative destruction, 167, 170, 201 credit democratization, 209,219,220-21 life cycle, 221 waning of expansion, 220-21 See also securitization 302 Index credit cards, 125-26,127,219 Cross of Gold speech, 87 current account, defined, 252 D debt, household, 218-21 deflation, 172, 252 DeLong, J. Bradford, 64 deposit insurance, 33,195, 252 depreciation allowances, 31 Dillon, C. Douglas, 60 discount rate, 103, 120, 133, 252 disinflation, 5-6, 7, 28, 38-39, 109, 128, 138n,141,179,183,208,221,253 dollar Eurodollars, 161 exchange rate, 120,153 as global currency, 8, 163, 222, 222n, 224 and globalization, 158-59 impact on international finance, 161-62 international capital flows, 162-663 Nixon's 1971 devaluation, 118 strong, 159, 162, 172 double-digit inflation economic statistics, 107-8 end of, 105-11 as historical oversight, 4,42-43 as policy blunder, 11 recession as cure, 126-27 See also Great Inflation Dow Jones Industrial Average, 5, 35, 37, 181 downsizing, 143,143n, 184 E early retirement, 185n Easterlin, Richard, 212 economic growth consumer debt burden as threat, 218-21 globalization as threat, 221-25 and happiness, 211-12 need for, 209-10 slowing, 208-9,214 social role, 212-14 undoing, 6 welfare state as threat, 215-18 Eichengreen, Barry, 44,164 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 54 Eizenstat, Smart E., 49 employment job security, 179,184-88 long-term relationships, 184-85 in new economic order, 176 See also full employment; unemployment Employment Act of 1946, 54, 78 energy prices, 15,16-17,238n See also oil entitlements, 201, 231 Eurodollars, 161 F farmers, 33-34,86-87,87a, 88,129 Fed Funds, 132,254 Fed funds rate, 107, 121, 122-23,133,254 Federal Communications Commission (FCC), 152n federal debt, 14,14n Federal Open Market Comnuttee (FOMC), 120,120n-121n, 128, 129, 131-32,134,172,253 Federal Reserve accelerator-brakes analogy, 82 Burns as chairman, 77-78,97-98,103, 118 and business cycles, 228 and Carter, 91,109,118-20 change in orientation toward new economics, 80-81 controlling money supply, 121-24 defined, 253 establishment, 88-89 expansionary policies, 81-82 and full employment, 79,80-81 and gold standard, 102 globalization as complicating factor, 229 as guardian of currency, 228 influence on economy, 78-79 andJohnson, 91,103 as lender of last resort, 228-29 303 Index Federal Reserve (contd.) The government funds the country's operations, including paying for its defense and cutting all those Social Security checks each month.
14 The Big Hoist our federal law enforcement troops, creating the Department of Homeland Security, now one of the largest employers in all of govern ment with 183,000 workers. Again, what is a bond? A bond is a security or investment that yields cash flow to the owner. 177 GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND AGENCIES asset-backed security (ABS) A bond backed by subprime loans. 182 Glossary of Terms and Agencies mortgage-backed security (NMS) A bond backed (collateralized) by residential loans. Such a massive project demonstrated a shocking disregard for the sanctions by a member of the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members.' For example, in 2000, the United States discovered that China was building a nationwide fiber-optic commu nications system that was to have been employed by Baghdad's military and internal security infrastructures, including its air defense command. As a result, over time the Iraqi people felt a real impact from the sanctions-an impact never intended by the Security Council. Likewise, the inspection regime could have been set up to ensure greater Security Council unity over 54 IRAQ AND THE CNI'I'ED STATES the long tern and to make it harder for Iraq to exploit ambiguities in U.N. resolutions and differences among the five permanent members of the Se curity Council-the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China, known as the P-5. And it is up to the men and women at the top of the national security hi erarchy to prioritize among them. 00 IRAQ AND THE I NITEI7 SPATES Iraq's economic problems were an important contributing factor to the internal security threats Saddam faced. The memories of Iraq's unprovoked aggression against Kuwait were fresh in people's minds, as was the spirit of interna tional cooperation and collective security that the Bush administration had sounded when it had built the Desert Storm coalition. This group was led primarily by National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, Secretary of State Warren Christopher, and Deputy Secre tary of State Strobe Talbott. Indyk, Parris, and Riedel seized on the assassination plot to make their case for a more robust approach, and, with strong backing from Fuerth and Albright, they convinced the Princi pals (the National Security Council meeting without the president is re ferred to as the Principals' Committee, or PC) that the United States had to respond to this act of Iraqi terrorism with force. At Iraq's urging, Russia proposed that the Security Council set a deadline after which it would consider lifting the sanctions if it was satisfied with Iraq's progress Cnntainto ,,t and Beyond 69 toward disarmament. However, the United States countered that such a deadline was not part of Resolution 687 and would introduce artificial con straints into the inspections, something the Security Council had studiously avoided. To cap off Iraq's humiliation, on October 15 the Security Council passed Resolution 949 under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, demanding that Baghdad remove the forces it had moved into southern Iraq and refrain from further such deployments south of the Thirty-second Parallel. Not only did Iraq comply with the coalition and Security Council demands, but to stave off an American re taliatory attack and try to get back into the good graces of the Security Council, on November 10 the Iraqi National Assembly endorsed the new, U.N.-delineated borders with Kuwait, and Saddam himself signed the de cree. The upshot of the meeting was that Ambassador Albright was dispatched on a trip to a half dozen key Security Council members and Arab allies, along with Parris and Riedel, to make the case for staying the course on containment and gauge the reaction of her audiences. Many of the doves, including National Security Adviser Tony Lake, pointed to the March 1995 Kurdish fiasco. However, before the Security Council could act, UNSCOM Chairman Ekeus flew to Baghdad and negotiated a new agreement on inspections with Iraq that infuriated the U.S. administration. Washington intended to take the matter to the Security Council, and it expected to be able to get a resolution con demning the Iraqi actions as a 'material breach' of the cease-fire, thereby justifying the use of military force. However, by exposing the splits within the Security Council and among the coalition allies, the crisis had further weakened the U.S. position.' Instead, Washington and London persuaded the Security Council to pass a resolution condemning Iraq's decision and calling it a Containment and Beyond 91 'totally unacceptable contravention of Iraq's obligations.' Indyk, Riedel, and others argued that when Saddam reneged, the U.S. response should not be punitive but coer cive-a lengthy, punishing air campaign directed at his internal security forces that would threaten to loosen his grip on the country. STA'1'ICS gence but had few answers to the dilemma they faced: use force and risk splitting the Security Council (which would undermine the inspections, sanctions, and the rest of containment), or refrain from using force and allow Saddam to undermine the inspections himself, flout the authority of the Security Council, and make the United States look impotent. Instead, for the first time, the United States principally struck a set of targets related to Saddam's control over the coun try, including eighteen command-and-control facilities, eight Republican Guard barracks, six airfields, and nineteen sites related to the concealment mechanism-which actually consisted largely of Special Republican Guard garrisons, internal security facilities, and other sites that were key compo nents of Saddam's police state.' In contrast, the Chinese re fused because Beijing agreed with Washington on the legality of the flight ban and wanted to preserve the authority of the Security Council (an important aspect of China's own international influence). Iraq carefully awarded contracts to CO,,Iatnment and Beyond 101 those who echoed its propaganda and voted its way in the Security Coun cil. It has participated in numerous impor tant internal security missions when large, well-armed, and highly devoted military formations were required to deal with widespread unrest, such as during the Iraqi intifadah and the riots after Operation Desert Fox. Iraqi State and Society 119 next ring of security beyond the Presidential Guard and reports to the SSO. After Iraq had ex panded the Republican Guard to play a greater role in conventional military operations against Iran in the late 1980s, Saddam took several of the RG units charged with purely internal security missions, added additional loyal personnel, and designated them the Special Republican Guard with the original mission of the RG. His in- 122 IRAQ TODAY temal security apparatus is probably the most formidable institution inside Iraq. Many who have en countered Iraq's security services have found them surprisingly crude, clumsy, and ignorant, even stupid. If you have every organization in Iraq pen etrated, if you have every Iraqi citizen so terrified that he or she believes that every word he or she utters is heard by the security services, and if you are willing to kill or torture every member of Iraqi society to find the infor mation you seek, you can be just as effective as if you had brilliant agents, outstanding tradecraft, and ultrasophisticated technology. The regime's security services, Ba'th Party members, and the regime's protec tion forces have gotten bigger and more frequent pay raises than other gov ernment employees. The internal security services routinely deprive people of ration cards as a means of punishment.' As a result, the security ser vices were more oppressive for the Shi'ah, the economic conditions more stringent, the regime's largesse negligible, and punishments strictly en forced. Once again, Iraqi tradecraft proved so incompetent and the Mukhabbarat's security so inadequate that the operation was quickly rolled up and Iraq's culpability was easily proven. If he is uncomfortable with foreign terrorist groups be cause he cannot be certain how they will act and how their actions will af fect his own security, this point is ten times more salient when weapons of mass destruction are involved. The opposition groups have great difficulty conducting operations against the regime because of 180 IRAQ TODAY Saddam's draconian security measures. However, the Saudis seem to have 188 IRAQ TODAY recognized that Saddam's formidable internal security measures would make such an operation difficult, if not impossible. The Saudis were most helpful in push ing for action from the U.N. Security Council, reflecting their own rhetoric that Saudi Arabia was simply implementing the UNSC resolutions, plus their belief that containment required broad international support to be suc cessful. Countless Saudi princes, officials, and businessmen have asked me, 'Why won't you just invade?' Their points are that Saddam's security is so formidable and Iraq's armed forces 190 IRAQ TODAY are still strong enough that only the U.S. military has a high likelihood of bringing him down. Ideally, a revised sanctions regime would be mandated by the Security Council itself because multilateral sanctions are always more effective than 222 'I'IIE OPTIONS unilateral sanctions, and sanctions decreed by the United Nations tend to be the most effective of all. In addition, because it was the Security Council that established the sanctions in the beginning, pursuing any other route to try to restore the embargoes on Iraq would be seen as an obvious sign of failure that would encourage noncompliance. If anyone had any doubts about the depths to which Russia is willing to sink in arguing Iraq's case, in June 2002, Moscow criticized the Security Coun cil's measures to control Iraq's oil prices and eliminate the Iraqi sur charges.' Certainly it has not raised a finger in the Security Council to punish those guilty of violating the military embargo and has excused the Iraqis whenever they have transgressed. Indeed, there are only a handful of countries that would be willing to consider imposing new sanctions on Iraq-far too few to get such tough new sanctions through the Security Council. When added to the innate opposition of the Russians, French, Chinese, and others to the Amer ican exercise of power and their determination not to allow the Security Council to become a vehicle for the United States to punish rogue states, the approach unravels. No matter how much evidence the The Erosion of Confainrnent 227 United States produced (and we would be loath to do so in the Security Council because this would jeopardize our intelligence sources and meth ods), the Russians, French, Chinese, and others would likely declare it in adequate to actually impose the mandated sanctions. If the United States felt that we could continue to guarantee Saudi security by flying on fewer days (which we probably could, if that were our only concern), they would be amenable to such a decrease. They want to keep the NFZ activity as far 'under the radar' as they can without jeopar dizing their security. However, the Russians, French, and Chinese have made it no secret that they will not allow any tightening of the sanctions in the Security Council, which leaves only the unilateral route. He is paranoid about his internal security and invariably overreacts to internal threats. 3u 256 111E 0P11 0 ,ss One of the most important aspects of Saddam's decision making is his obsession with internal security. Trying to wage a covert campaign against Saddam to infiltrate his security networks and convince other Iraqis to move against him is playing his game on his turf. A determined air campaign that fo cused on Saddam's key supporters-the Republican Guard, Special Re publican Guard, Ba'th Party, Fidayin Saddam, and internal security services-would also have some potential to spark a coup resulting in his overthrow. Many of the re servists would be needed for intelligence, communications, medical sup- The Case for an Invasion 341 port, clerical work, combat engineering, air traffic control, base security, and other functions, the numbers of whom are roughly constant for any siz able overseas operation. Rather than increasing our security and prosperity, such a development would drastically under mine it. If true, this would even open up the possibility of a new U.N. Security Council resolution, although China might be difficult to convince. In 1991, the Security Council passed Resolution 687, which laid down the terms for the termination of hostilities, established the inspection regime, and established the conditions under which the sanctions would be 370 1IIP: 0PT10%S lifted. Moreover, this resolution was adopted under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, which invokes the rights to collective security and self-defense. On numerous other occasions since 1991, the United States has justified taking military action against Iraq on the basis of Iraqi violations of the terms of the cease fire resolution, although initially we preferred to have the Security Council recognize those Iraqi breaches before taking action. 378 THE OPTIONS Likewise, because our allies would be comfortable that Saddam would be gone, and quickly, we should be able to convince all of them to take ex traordinary security measures to defeat other Iraqi counterattacks in the ex pectation that those measures would not have to remain in place for very long. Within Iraq, the creation of a new kind of state-especially seo rus OPTIONS one that had any of the trappings of democracy-would threaten the inter ests of many of the existing elites, including the Sunni tribes, the Sunni townsmen from the region west of Baghdad, and whatever is left of the Sunni-dominated military and security services. Only with a U.S. security presence throughout the country could we be certain that U.S., and later U.N., humanitarian goods would be distributed to the Iraqi people rather than being seized and 394 TILE OPTIONS hoarded by local warlords as in Somalia and Afghanistan. Only with a U.S. security presence throughout the country could we be certain that the U.N. inspectors could enter the country and search it for weapons of mass de struction. Likewise, we would want such a security presence throughout the country to provide security for the U.N. weapons inspectors as well as U.N. and nongovernmental organization personnel handling humanitarian aid distribution, and later political and economic re- 396 TH1. With only a small force, the United States would not have the strength to assume the security function throughout the country (and there fore would not be able to allow the United Nations to handle the economic functions) and so would be heavily reliant on local Iraqi leaders and the forces under their control to handle those tasks. If the United States ensured their security, provided substantial economic sup port, and assisted in the creation of a stable, inclusive, and pluralist Iraqi political system, it seems quite likely that the Iraqi people would approve of the U.S. presence-especially if the United States were to reduce that presence over time, making clear its intention to eventually depart. In fact, what we have found in the Balkans, Afghanistan, Haiti, and elsewhere in recent years is that local populations generally welcome U.S. forces and in stead resent other contingents, whom they often regard as their inferiors, making the Americans the best-suited security forces. The United States can help them to do so, but prin cipally by creating the proper security and economic circumstances not by drafting a constitution ourselves, designating the new leaders, or crafting the new economy. A new Security Council resolution could grant the Office of the Iraq Program, or whatever body the Security Council deemed appropriate to handle the coordination of the reconstruc tion effort, full control over oil-for-food monies. The in spectors went in and the sanctions stayed on, and whenever Iraq attempted to renege on its commitments or challenge the authority of the international community, the Security Council sanctioned military action by the United States, the United Kingdom, and sometimes France. The international community, acting under the auspices of the U.N. Security Council, attempted to honor that commitment by imposing a demanding set of disarmament and political requirements on Iraq backed by draconian sanctions and the implicit threat of additional military opera tions. For a clever account of other compromises the United States made to secure French support for the resolution, see David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, 'Comparison of Drafts of Comprehensive Security Council Resolution on Iraq,' NOTES 443 Institute for Science and International Security, December 14, 1999, available at www.isis-online.org/publicationsfuaq/unnscrescomp.httnl, 15, no. I (March 1992), pp. 5-6 (Cigar was the head of the U.S. Army Intelligence division responsible for the Persian Gulf 448 N U 'I' E S during the Gulf War); William Drozdiak, 'Security Officials Foresee Saddam Turn ing to Proxy Terrorists,' The Washington Post, August 14, 1990; Norman Kemp ster, 'U.S. The author, who is not a government official and holds no security clearances, claims to know the location of Iraq's WMD sites and argues that striking them would eliminate the threat from Saddam's WMD. INDEX



Ababil-100 missiles, 170 Abbas, Abu, 21, 154 `Abdallah, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, 104, 186, 400 Abdallah, King of Jordan, 328, 359 Abu Nidal Organization (ANO), 21, 153-56 Adelman, Ken, 468n Adnan Khayrallah, 7, 9-10, 51, 113 Afghan approach, xxix-xxx,245, 293-335,414 advantages of, 295-96 aftermath of, 328-29 air power in, 293-95, 303, 308, 312-21,323-27,329-32,342-43 author's bona fides and, 296-98 and capabilities of PGMs, 308-10 casualties in, 295-96, 313, 325-27, 330 extreme right wing support for, 468n Iraqi counterattacks in, 323-28, 377 Kosovo War and, 302-5 and lessons from Persian Gulf War, 305-8 as nonsensical strategy, 332-34 strategic and diplomatic risks of, 320-30 time element in, 323-24, 326-27, 361 and U.S.-led Iraq invasion, 323, 330-35,342-43,377-78,380,384 Afghanistan, 184, 202-3, 284, 288, 378 differences between Iraq and, 310-20 rebuilding of, 355, 387-89, 391-92, 394,396,405-6 U.S. military operations in, 203, 293-95,297-303,306,308-12, 314-20,329,332-33,361,368, 387-88, 399,405, 414, 463n, 469n what really happened in, 298-302 aflatoxin, 169, 171-72 agriculture, 18, 145, 196, 228 in Iraq's humanitarian crisis, 128, 130-32 in rebuilding Iraq, 398,406 Ahtissari, Martti, 60 air power, xxvii, 414-15 in Afghan approach, 293-95, 303, 308, 312-21,323-27,329-32,342-43 in Iran-Iraq War, 19, 40, 159-60, 163, 166, 259, 269 in Kosovo War, 296, 302-8, 310, 315-20,323-24,327,332,465n in Persian Gulf War, 40, 42-43, 45, 52, 160,172,263-65,271,287,306-7, 309-10,3W20,323-25,345,358, 414-15,435n-36n,465n-68n in U.S.-led Iraq invasion, 338, 342-4, 347-48,353-54,356-59,362,371, 374-75,381,415 476 I5Dt:X al-Anfal campaign, 20, 47, 50-51, 144, 176,247,279 al-Basrah, 141, 259 intifadah in, 43, 47, 50 Iran-Iraq War and, 16, 18, 22-25 Persian Gulf War and, 43-45 Albright, Madeleine, 74, 86-87, 104 containment and, 66, 67, 72, 89 Kurdish infighting and, 96-97 al-Faw peninsula, 22-23, 85, 260 Algiers Accord, 9, 16-17, 41, 258 al-Hussein missiles, 23, 169, 172, 201, 435n deterrence and, 248, 260, 266, 272 Persian Gulf War and, 42, 248, 266 'Ali ibn Abi Talib, 5, 141 al-Jazeera, 103 Allied Force, Operation, 302-3, 306, 324 al-Majid, Hussein Kamel, 61, 267, 412, 439n defection of, 76-77, 87-88, 115, 117, 195,236 intifadah and, 50-51 murder of, 79, 117 Saddam's power base and, 113-14 weapons inspection and, 76-77, 79, 87-88 al-Majid, Saddam Kamel, 76,79 al-Qa'eda, xxi-xxii, 90, 299, 364, 391, 396 Afghan War and, 297,301-2,309-10, 314,319 Iraqi threat and, 157-58 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 378-79 U.S. war against, 420-21 al-Samud missiles, 170, 324, 371 Amorim, Celso, 225-26 Anderson, Lisa, 471n-72n Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC), 11-12 an-Nahdah, 85, 286 an-Najaf, 17, 47, 49, 51, 93, 142-43 Annan, Kofi, 89-91, 233-34 Ansar i-Islam (Jund al-Islam), xxii, 157 anthrax, 169, 171, 364 anticipatory self-defense, 368-69, 371 Arab Cooperation Council (ACC), 28, 30 Arab-Israeli wars: of 1956 (Sinai-Suez War), 8, 183, 349 of 1967 (Six-Day War), 183, 194, 349 of 1973 (October War), 15, 18, 250-51, 257,268 Arab League, 28, 33, 41, 258 Arab Liberation Front, 154 Arab street: in regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 183-86,192,195 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, 360-62, 380 Arafat, Yasir, 21, 32, 153, 155 Arbil,48,72,87,144,311-12 Iraqi attack at, 129, 158, 165, 188, 412 Kurdish infighting and, 82-84, 96-97 Argentina, 249-50, 369 Argov,Shlomo,120,153-54 Arif, `Abd ar-Rahman, 9 Arif, `Abd as-Salim, 8-9 Amy, U.S., 70, 254, 261, 338, 348, 398 in rebuilding Iraq, 394-95 ar-Ramadi, 75, 114, 116 Arrow, Operation, 304 Arrow missile defense system, 325-26 ar-Rumaylah, xii, 191 Asad, Bashar al-, 104, 195 Asad, Hafiz al-, 104, 155, 195-96, 258, 274,389 as-Sulaymaniyyah, 48, 51, 82-83, 144 Ayyash, Yahya, 285 Aziz, Tariq, 21, 30 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, xi, 33, 36, 261 Persian Gulf War and, 40,265 weapons inspection and, 61, 89, 91 Baghdad, 124, 159, 289 Afghan approach and, 293, 314-15, 326,331 distribution of limited resources in, 130,134 in Iran-Iraq War, 259--60, 269 in Persian Gulf War, 46-47, 381-83 Shi'ites in, 141-42 terrorists in, 154-56 in U.S.-led Iraq invasion, 331, 339-40, 347-48,350-51,355-56,358-59, 377 Baghdad Pact, 13-14 Bahrain, xxvii, 13, 141, 161, 321, 337, 354 democratic trends in, 400,401, 400-401 Persian Gulf War and, 42, 169, 249 U.S.-Iraq policy as viewed by, 183-84, 192-94,202 Baker, James, 48, 265 Bakr, Ahmed Hassan al-, 7-10 Banco Nazionale del Lavoro scandal, 29-30,32 Baram, Amatzia, 49, 83, 116, 138, 177, 256,433n Barzani, Masud, 73, 81, 144-45 Ba'th Party, 7-10, 15, 33, 35, 75, 80, 134, 136,153,195,256-57,274,360 Afghan approach and, 311, 328, 330 internal security forces and, 115, 119-21 intifadah and, 43, 114, 346 Iran-Iraq War and, 18, 114 Popular Army of, 121 Saddam's membership in, 7-9 Saddam'spower base and, 114-15 Ba'th Party Security (al-Amn al-Hizb), 120 Bayjat clan, 6-7, 113-14, 118, 285 Bazzaz, Sand al-, 154, 381 Ber gin, Ofra, 143-44,150, 260-61 Berger, Samuel R. 'Sandy,' 86-87 regime change and, 95, 99,102 bin Ladin, Usama, 90, 297, 383, 420 covert action against, 283-84 Iraqi threat and, 157-58 Saddam's relationship with, xxi-xxii bin Sultan, Prince Bandar, 31, 188 biological weapons (BW), 19,123, 220, 240,325 containment and, xxvi, 63, 71, 77, 236 deterrence and, 248-49, 263-65, 277-79 Iraqi threat and, 148, 168-74, 179-80 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 341, 347-48,373,376 Blair, Tony, 204, 363 Blessed Ramadan, Operation, 17 Bodyguards, The (al-Himaya), 117-18 Bosnia, xxii, 58, 65, 69, 99, 395 rebuilding of, 398-99,405-6,408, 410 botulinum toxin, 169,171 Brewster, Owen, 13 Bull, Gerald, 31, 62 Bu Nasir, al, 6-7, 113-14,116, 118 Bush, George H. W., 55-56, 57, 58-59, 63-67 attempted assassination of, 67, 119, 152,156-57,287 constructive engagement and, 28-29, 34-36 containment and, 56, 63, 65-66, 108, 218-19,221,230,412 covert action and, 59, 283-84, 287 intifadah and, 48-49, 70 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, xii, 34-36 opportunities missed by, 46--49, 55, 65 Persian Gulf War and, 26, 36-37, 39, 45-47,49, 53, 56, 64, 66-67, 203, 254,265 and regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 188, 196, 203 Bush, George W., xxiv, 58, 104-8, 291, 296 Butler, Richard, 87-89, 91, 136, 225-26 Carter, Jimmy, 15, 283 Castro, Fidel, 285, 288 CeauFscu, Nicolae, 30 Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S., 189,294,463n Persian Gulf War and, 38, 45-49, 342 in U.S.-led Iraq invasion, 339, 341, 360,384 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), xi-xii, xiv, xxii, 94 assassinations and, 67-68, 282-85 constructive engagement and, 29, 31, 34,36 containment and, 227, 229 covert action and, 59, 72-73, 79-80, 282-85,287-92,414 deterrence and, 263-64 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, xii, 34, 36-37,250 Iraqi threat and, 155, 172, 174 Kurdish infighting and, 81, 83-84 Persian Gulf War and, 37, 46, 49, 263-65, 435n, 466n regime change and, 63, 96-98 and U.S. presence in Persian Gulf, 13-15 Chalabi, Ahmed, 63, 72-73, 313, 385 regime change and, 95-98, 102 4?8 283 Fahd, King of Saudi Arabia, 21, 37 Falklands War, 249-50, 369 Fallujah chemical facilities, 171 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 30, 67,364 Fidayin Saddam, 113, 121, 311, 350 Ford, Franklin L., 287 Ford, Gerald, 283 Forrestal, James, 13 France, 10, 41, 54,163, 173, 245-46, 349, 370-71,385 containment and, xxvi-xxvii, 64, 70-72, 8'9,100-101,214,217,224-27, 231,234-35,238,242,245,411-12 in history of Iraq, 5, 8 intifadah and, 51, 59 Nazi threat as seen by, xv-xvi, 421-22 Osiraq reactor and, 17, 19 U.S.-Iraq policy and, 183, 204-6 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 226, 362-64 Franks, Tommy, 463n Fuerth, Leon, 66-67, 99 Garfield, Richard, 138-39 Gates, Robert, 58 General Intelligence, see Iraqi Intelli gence Service General Security (al-Aran al-`Amm), 113, 117,119-20,124 General Staff, Iraqi, 44, 118, 162, 164--65 Geneva Conventions, 368 Genocide Convention, 368 Germany, Federal Republic of, 175, 205, 362 Iran-Iraq War and, 19-20 rebuilding of, 408-9 Germany, Nazi, 12, 254, 324, 350,400 in history of Iraq, 6-7 internal security forces and, 115-16 Iraq compared with, xv-xvi, 421-23 Ghazi, King of Iraq, 6 Glaspie, April, 34-35, 256 Goods Review List, 221-22 Gore, Al, 66, 91, 100, 102, 218 Graham-Brown, Suah, 129, 132, 135 Great Britain, 18-19, 31, 51, 54, 59, 83, 95-96,120,141,249,289,332,349, 369,385,400 containment and, xxvi-xxvii, 64, 70, 88,90-92,100,214,229-30,234, 238-39,411-12 in history, 3, 5-6, 8, 11-14 Iraqi threat and, 153, 155, 160 Kosovo War and, 304-5 Persian Gulf War and, 155, 342 terrorism and, xxii, 153, 155 and threat of Nazi Germany, xv-xvi, 421-23 U.S.-Iraq policy and, 183, 194, 203-6 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, 204, 339, 362-63 Great Game, I I Gmmmon, Stephen, 78, 94 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). policy, 187, 192, 202 Saddam's background and, 6-7 Saddam's power base and, 114-15 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, 346, 352, 359,384 supergun, 31, 62 Supreme Assembly for the Islamic Revo lution in Iraq (SAIRI), 97, 143 Sweeney, John, 122 492 IFDPX Syria, 10, 21, 101, 104, 106, 257-58, 288, 321,392 containment and, xxviii, 214, 216, 218-20,223,228,232,413 deterrence and, 249, 251, 258, 268, 270,272,274-75 in history, 4-8 Iraqi threat and, 164, 168, 268, 270 Kurds and, 144--45 rebuilding Iraq and, 389, 397, 399, 401 terrorism sponsored by, 153, 155, 232 U.S.-Iraq policy as viewed by, 195-97 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 196, 356, 360, 378, 383 Talabani, Jalal, 81, 83, 144 Talfab, Khayrallah, 7,113 Taliban, 297-302, 396 Afghan War and, 294-95, 297-302, 306,309-12,314,319-20,332,405, 463n Tamoff, Peter, 71 Tenet, George, 157, 174, 290 tenor, terrorists, terrorism, xxi-xxiii, 16, 67, 90, 117, 285, 368, 383 Afghan approach and, 325-27 containment and, 220, 232-33 deterrence and, 265, 271, 278-79 giving WMD to, 178-80 internal security forces and, 119-20 Iran-Iraq War and, 18-19 Iraqi threat and, 153-58, 173, 178-80 Iraqi ties to, xiii, xxi-xxii, 18-19, 21, 28,153-58,200-201,375,469n Persian Gulf War and, 36, 42,155, 265, 271 public opinion on, xxii-xxiii, 189, 193, 419 rebuilding Iraq and, 391, 396-97 and regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 188-89,193, 199-202 rule of, 122-25 on September 11, 2001, xxi-xxiv, xxviii-xxix, 105, 107-8, 232-33, 290-91,297,364,378-79,414, 419-20 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 245, 364, 370,373-75,377-79,419-20 U.S. war on, xxiv, 189, 193, 199 9 341, 395,419-21 Tikrit, Tikritis, 113-16,118, 134, 340 trade, 11, 139, 145, 178, 246, 273 Afghan approach and, 321, 328 containment and, 217-19, 221-24, 227-31,242,281 European views on, 204-5 illegal, see smuggling monitoring of, 223-24, 227 rebuilding Iraq and, 393, 397 and regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 189,194-98 weapons inspection and, 100-101 Tucker, Jonathan, 177 Turkey, 13, 73, 81-84, 101, 106, 130 Afghan approach and, 321-22, 327, 330 containment and, xxvii-xxviii, 213-14,217-18,220,223,228,239, 413 deterrence and, 272, 275, 280 in history of Iraq, 3-6 Iraqi intifadah and, 49-51 Iraqi threat and, 149, 156, 165 Kurds and, 82-84, 96-97, 144 46 Persian Gulf War and, 46, 197 rebuilding Iraq and, 389, 399 U.S.-Iraq policy as viewed by, 195, 197-99,202 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 198, 339, 353,356-57,362,364,371,377, 419,421 Twin Pillars policy, 14-16, 25 Udayy Saddam, 121, 124, 135, 195, 383, 429n attempted assassination of, 84-85, 286 covert action and, 286-87 in family feuds, 75-76 Saddam's power base and, 113-14 United Arab Emirates (UAE), 101, 161, 321 containment and, 214, 217, 220 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, 33-35 U.S.-Iraq policy as viewed by, 192-94, 202 United Nations, xxiv-xxvi, 20 Afghan approach and, 311, 330 air travel into Iraq banned by, 101, 204, 217 Charter of,51-52,61,70,284,288, 368,370-71 Commission on Human Rights of, 122 containment and, xxv-xxvi, xxviii, 37, 52-53,60-64,67-69,71-81,85, 87-94,100-101,106,112,125-29, 133,137,139-40,142,151,158, 165,167-77,187-88,197,212-13, 215-37,239,242,244,246,266, 271,337,364,369-70,376,394-96, 403, 411-14, 436n, 463n covert action and, 282, 284 deterrence and, 244, 246, 264, 266-67, 271 Food and Agriculture Organization of, 127 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, 38, 369-70 Iraqi threat and, 70, 151-52, 157-58, 165,167-78,180,267,439n and Iraq's humanitarian crisis, 74-75, 125-30,133-34,136-40 Kurds and, 82, 145, 147 Monitoring and Verification Commis sion (UNMOVIC) of, 100, 233-34 oil-for-food program of, 74-75, 77-78, 83-86,100,111-12,136-37, 139-40,145,175,197,204,215-16, 223,404-6,412,414 Persian Gulf War and, 37-39,41, 43, 46,52-54,264,266,436n rebuilding Iraq and, 391, 393-97, 401, 403-8 and regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 181, 187-88, 193-94, 196-97 and rule of terror, 122-23 Sanctions Committee of, l01 Special Commission for the Disarma ment of Iraq (UNSCOM), 61-62, 67-69,71,75-76,78-80,85,87-93, 100,129,135-36,169,171-74,177, 187,225,233-36 UNICEF and, 126-27, 130, 136, 142 U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 204,206-7, 226,236-37,336-37,364,368,370, 374-76 United Nations Security Council, xxviii, 38,41,51-54,60,68-70,64,72, 74-75,77-78,80,82-83,85,87-92, 95,100-101,106,129,139-40,152, 169,175,188,203,206,212-13, 216-17,221-22,224-28,230-31, 233-36,239,242,244,337,364, 369-71,405,411-13 United Nations Security Council Resolu tions: 660,369 670,217 678,224,369-70 687,52,60,69,169-70,175, 369-70 688, 51, 82 706,60,74,139-40 712,139-40 949,70,239,267 986,74-75,77-78,83-84,129 1134,88 1284,100-101,106,233-36 U.S.-Iraq policy: doves on, 56, 58, 65, 70-73, 78-79, 81, 86,99,103,105-8,243 hawks on,56-58,66,71-72,78-79, 81,86--87,92-93,95,103,105,107, 438n history of, xxx, 3 long-tenn considerations in, 55 Middle East regionalists vs. senior pol icy generalists on, 58, 66 options for, xxix-xxx principal complaints about, 361 Van der Stoel, Max, 122-23 Vietnam War, 14-15, 39, 92, 307, 315, 351, 355, 366, 381 Vigilant Sentinel, Operation, 76, 187, 375 Vigilant Warrior, Operation, 69-70, 76, 166, 187, 375 Vincennes, USS, 24 VX nerve agent, 71, 90, 170.71, America Is a Fair and Noble Superpower 33 The NSA memo, dated January 31, 2003, outlined the wide scope of the surveillance activities, seeking any information useful to push a war resolution through the Security Council-'the whole gamut of information that could give U.S. policymakers an edge in obtaining results favorable to U.S. goals or to head off surprises.' In sharp contrast to the claims in her book, Parry witnessed 'self-censorship because of the coziness between Post/Newsweek executives and senior national security This is about Human Riglns 81 figures.' Overall, accord ing to Parry, 'the PostlNewsweek company is protective of the national security establishment.'' Kissinger was President Nixon's national security adviser at the time. Of course, the confrontation was about 'our own national security interests' along with ensuring 'peace and stability,' but there was something more at stake. 'Looking ahead,' CEO Dennis Sunshine reported, 'Orbit's Electronics and Thus Is Not et All about Oil or Corporate Profits 9 3 Power Unit Segments expect to continue to benefit from the expanding military/defense and homeland security marketplace.'' These people recognized that even then, within days after the planes hit, there was a good deal of opportunistic ground being seized under cover of the clearly urgent need for increased security. In the middle of that society were hordes of Iraqis who had all the security they needed even if there was no freedom other than the full-fledged liberty offered by dictators to be free to Th i s I s a N ecessary Battle in the Wa r o n Terrorism 173 speak with hyperbolic hosannas for the leader. So, yes, there are more important things to safeguard than security and one of them is to pro tect the much-beleaguered integrity of our democracy. Washington was preparing to hand over power to Iraqis while steadfastly refusing to do so; putting an Iraqi 'face' on authority in Iraq while retaining ultimate author ity in Iraq; striving for Iraqis to take up the burden of their country's Withdrawal Would (:ripple U.S. Credibilitv 225 national security while insisting that military control must remain in Uncle Sam's hands. By unveiling a top-secret U.S. National Security Agency memo, the newspaper provided key information when it counted most: before the war began. American journalists didn't confront Powell with basic questions like: (1) Notes to Pages 45-47 253 You cite Iraq's violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions to justify the U.S. launching a war. But you're well aware that American allies such as Turkey, Israel, and Morocco continue to violate dozens of Security Council resolutions. Why couldn't other nations claim the right to militarily 'enforce' the Security Council's resolutions against countries they'd prefer to bomb? (2) You insist that Iraq is a grave threat to the other nations of the Middle East. If the history of Baghdad's evil deeds is relevant, why aren't facts about U.S. com plicity also relevant? (5) When you warn that the U.N. Security Council 'places itself in danger of irrelevance' if it fails to endorse a U.S.-led war on Iraq, aren't you really proclaiming that the United Nations is 'relevant' only to the extent that it does what the U.S. government wants? ... As President Reagan's national security adviser, Powell worked diligently on behalf of the Contra guerrillas who were ter rorizing and killing civilians in Nicaragua. 'Special National Security Estimate' quoted in Daniel C. Hallin, The 286 Notes to Page 219 'Uncensored War': The Media and Vietnam (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989), p. 60. See antiwar activists Dixie Chicks (music group), 162-163 Doctors Without Borders, 202 Dolny, Michael, 124 Dominican Republic invasion, 1-8, 9, 22 domino theory, 222 Donahue (television program), 125 Donahue, Phil, 125 Donvan, John, 151 Dowd, Maureen, 56 Downie, Leonard, Jr., 128 Drug Enforcement Agency, 11 drug trafficking, 9-11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 20-21 Eagleburger, Lawrence, 12 East Timor massacre, 77-78 300 Index Editor & Publisher, 223 Edwards, Bob, 188 Edwards, Don, 16 Egypt, torture and, 76 Ehrenreich, Barbara, 165-166 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 113 Ellsberg, Daniel, 36, 105 on official deceptions, 55, 108, 109,234 on pressured conformity, 156-157 on U.S. spying on U.N. Security Council members, 32-33 on Vietnam bombings, 39, 40-41 on Vietnamese casualties, 192-193 on Vietnam War escalation, 234-235 Ellul, Jacques, 24 El Salvador, 12, 13, 78-80, 189 embedded reporters, 123, 146, 150-153 energy task force, 90 Engineered Support Systems, Inc., 93, 94 England. 194 Iraqi exile groups, 89, 178, 225 Iraqi National Accord, 225 Iraqi National Congress, 89, 178 Iraq war, 8, 44-53, 145-154, 189, 212-231 Arab-language media and, 130, 152,183,197-198 buildup for, 25-26, 31-32, 47-53, 55-61,111,188-189 'cakewalk' claim for, 24 celebrity opponents of, 161-163 changed rationale for, 73 civilian losses and, 145, 146, 151, 152,189-201,225 cluster bombs and, 200-201 congressional resolution for, 53, 72, ill critics of, 51, 99, 100, 124, 125, 158,159-163,166 'cut and run' language on, 227, 228 deceptions by planners of, 56-57, 181-183,212,214,216 deck-of-cards villains of, 180 diplomatic cover for, 4, 44-45, 111 Index 303 embedded reportage of, 123, 146, 150-153 enemy dehumanization and, 203 environmental consequences of, 200 exceptional journalism and, 145-146 failures of, 235-236 human rights abuses and, 76 Hussein-as-Hitler analogy and, 64-66,68,71-72,73 insurgency and, 195, 196, 214, 215-217,229-230 international law and, 99 international negativity toward, 28, 29 invasion problems of, 190-191 Iraqi anti-Americanism and, 151 Iraqi new army and, 212-213 Iraqi self-rule and, 214, 216-218, 222,224-225 Iraqization and, 212-213 lessons of, 219 Lynch public-relations blitz and, 205-209 marketing of, 50, 59-60, 131, 150-154,190 media attitudes toward, 116, 124-125,130-131,163,223, 225 media-coverage ban on returning coffins from, 148 media evidence of deceptions regarding, 181-183 media invasion coverage of, 122-125,126,132 media retractions on, 60-61 'Mission Accomplished' banner and, 41 as 'mistake,' 224 occupation problems of, 72-73, 212-217,223-225 oil and, 87, 88-91 'Operation' name for, 134 prewar demonstrations against, 158,166 public declining support for, 212, 224 public misperceptions of, 154, 214 public opinion on, 100-101, 154, 158, 159, 212, 223, 224, 229-230 rationales for, 52, 53, 64-66, 68, 71-73 reconstruction contractors and, 88, 92,196-197 second thoughts about, 60-61, 224 Shiites and, 215 tactical critiques of, 216 technology and, 189-191 television coverage of, 122-126, 132 'unilateral' reporters of, 151, 153 U.N. Security Council and, 32-33, 44-45 U.S. casualties of, 147-149, 194-199,200-201,205,215, 228,229 U.S. soldiers' maiming from, 147-149 U.S. troop level and, 218, 219, 230 U.S. withdrawal option and, 221-223,227-231 viability of, 214 Vietnam parallels with, 52, 53, 101, 102, 130-131, 156, 158, 213,214,219,222-223,224, 227-230 Isaacson, Walter, 142 Israel, 18, 29, 99, 173-175 Jackson, Derrick Z., 193-194 Jackson, Jesse, 35 Jackson, Robert L., 97 jargon. See censorship combatant characterizations by, 203-209 corporate ownership of, 91, 113, 128,163 cover stories and, 109 deceptive briefings to, 55, 56 downplaying of war horrors by, 137-138,147-150 embedded reporting by, 123, 146, 150-153 Grenada landing and, 21, 23, 117, 150 human rights abuses and, 83-86 military action spin and, 8-17, 25-26 military analysts and, 118-119, 125-126,144,196 military technology characterizations by, 187 mixed messages from, 164 national security establishment and, 80-81,129-130 need for invigoration of, 236 official sources and, 43, 106-107, 117-122,124,129,139,151, 170-171 ongoing pressures on, 91 patriotism and, 132 'Pentagonspeak' and, 118,119 political climate and, 130-131 Powell's U.N. Iraq speech and, 45-46 Rambouillet accord provisions and, 4144 306 Index media (continued) routinization of war coverage by, 236-237 selective perception and, 163-164, 165 self-censorship by, 91, 115-116, 118,126-128,131-132,142 September 11 coverage focus of, 168-171 terrorism characterizations by, 175-176 Vietnam-Iraq war parallels made by, 222-223 visual effects of, 137-138, 146 as war apologists, 25, 47-48, 114, 163-164,171 as war cheerleaders, 123-124, 131, 132,237 war-making vocabulary of, 143-144 on wars of aggression, 100 wartime dissent coverage by, 158, 159-160,164-165 weapons of mass destruction coverage by, 58-60 wrongful wars and, 113-132 See also propaganda; television; specific publications; under specific wars Mekong Delta, 133 Mexico, 32 Miami Beach antiwar protests (1972), 165 Middle East Watch, 84 military analysts, 118-119, 125-126, 144, 150, 196 military characterizations, 203-209 military contractors, 88, 91, 93-94, 196-197 media ownership and, 113-114 money spent on, 113 military euphemisms. Times, 36, 129 Sandinistas (Nicaragua), 11, 64, 81 San Francisco Chronicle, 92, 194 Sarajevo, 82 Saudi Arabia, 35, 36, 129, 187 Savimbi, Jonas, 82, 83 saving-American-lives rationale, 3, 4-5, 8, 12, 14, 15, 21, 22-24 Sawyer, Diane, 145 Sawyer, Forrest, 150 Scahill, Jeremy, 43-44 Scarborough, Joe, 159 Schanberg,Sydney, 107,147 Schechter, Danny, 165 Scheer, Robert, 208-209 Schlesinger, James R., 48 Schwarzkopf, Norman, 118 Scott, Tara, 163 Scowcroft, Brent, 51 Scud missiles, 119, 187 Index Seattle Times, 148 secrecy, 108, 109 Secunda, Eugene, 178 Security Council. See also Russia Space Imaging, 129 Special National Security Estimate, 218 Springsteen, Bruce, 163 spying, 31-32, 50 Stacks, John, 117 Stalin, Joseph, 71 State Department, 23, 49, 50, 90 Stauber, John, 83 Stealth bomber, 114, 125, 187, 188 Stevenson, Adlai, 45 Stewart, Jim, 187 Stockdale, James, 104 Stone, I. R, 37, 107, 133-134 on Israeli-Arab conflict, 174 on Vietnamization, 212 on Vietnam War opponents, 99-100,155,156 Storm, Jonathan, 207 Stufflebeem, John, 193 Sudan, 8, 82, 227 Suharto, 77, 78 Sukarno,77 Sullivan, Andrew, 170 Sultanovic, Jovana, 70 Sulzberger, C. L., 226 Sunday Morning (television program), 28 Sunday Telegraph (London newspaper), 200 Sunshine, Dennis, 92-93 'surgical strikes,' 119, 122, 126 'take out,' 125 Taliban, 142, 144, 193 technology, 185-202, 235 Tel Aviv, 119 Telecinco, 152 television antiwar movement and, 164-165 effects of images of, 146 Iraq war and, 150-153, 194-195 Lynch story and, 206-209 mixed messages from, 164 312 Index television (continued) patriotism and, 144-145 selective perception and, 164 self-censorship by, 126-130, 131-132,146 Vietnam War and, 134-145, 164, 185,203 Tenet, George, 128 Teresa, Mother, 18 terrorism globally workable definition of, 175 Israeli-Arab conflict and, 174 political character of term, 173 as tactic, 171, 175 See also September 11 attack; war on terrorism Ter offensive (1968), 138, 139-140, 214 Thani, Hamad Bin Jasim, 108 Thant, U, 167 This Week (television program), 159-161 Thomas, Cal, 160 Thomas, Evan, 228 Thomas, Helen, 127 Threatening Storm, The: The Case for Invading Iraq (Pollack), 59-60 Thurman, Maxwell, 10, 17, 18 Time (magazine), 23, 27-28, 71, 187 Iraq war and, 101, 130, 148, 157, 195,196,221-222 Times of London, 18-19, 33 Today (television program), 126, 206 Tomahawk cruise missile, 114 Tonkin Gulf incident, 36, 45, 103-109,167 Toronto Globe & Mail, 20 Toronto Star, 89, 183 torture, 75-76, 78, 85, 114, 115 Trainor, Bernard, 144, 196 Trujillo, Rafael, 1, 6 Truman Doctrine, 100 trustworthiness, 38-41, 55-59. IRAN AND THE BOMB 25 THE WRONG ROGUE The Bush administration, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, identi fied the combination of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism as the most potent threat to U.S. national security. The Security Council appeared in no hurry to punish Iran for not comply ing. I had hoped to become the first U.S. newspaper re porter to interview Iran's controversial new president but was content with having snagged the national security adviser and two other top Ira nian politicians who had also run for president in 2005. ? Did we THE BLACKSMITHS SON 57 defend the rights of the underprivileged or ignore them? Did we defend the rights of all people around the world or imposed wars on them, interfered illegally in their affairs, established hellish prisons and incarcerated some of them? Did we bring world peace and security or raise the specter of intimidation and threats? ... He gave a half-dozen interviews, appeared at a press con ference, faced down the elite Council on Foreign Relations, and delivered another tough speech to the General Assembly in which he accused the United States and Britain of delegitimizing the UN system through their domination of the Security Council. Mohammad-Bager Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary n BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Guards Air Force commander and police chief, got Ahmadinejad's old job as Tehran's mayor, and is likely to run for president again; Larijani, a former head of state radio and television, became secretary of the national security council and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator. With about 150,000 active members-the top third of the nation's military-plus thousands of influential veterans, the Guards combines the vanguard military mission of the U.S. Marines, the internal and external security and intelligence activities of the old Soviet KGB, the economic muscle of a Japanese trading consor- GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION as tium, and the black market expertise of the Cosa Nostra. In charge of Iran's border security, the Guards became expert smugglers, taking advantage of several exclusive harbors on Kish island, a free-trade zone across the Persian Gulf from the United Arab Emirates, also a legendary center for no-questions-asked commerce. se BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Decision making in Iran is a collective enterprise, and the Guards have a voice but not a veto on national security policies. That body brought together democratic and Soviet bloc countries during the Cold War and now promotes security and sa BITTER FRIENDS. 'After that, the condi tions became a lot more security-oriented and the environment for the reform movement became even more constrained,' he said. Something had happened to her then, something that so of fended her dignity and sense of security that she wouldn't tell me what it was-ten lashes with a leather strap, perhaps, or a gynecological exam to determine her virginity. A January 1978 newspaper article or chestrated by the government that harshly criticized Khomeini's char acter led to riots by seminary students in Qom in which at least six demonstrators were killed by security forces.' Iranian security forces responded brutally, killing at least four people, injuring more than forty, and arresting hundreds. 'The law permits the adminis tration to examine this decision as long as is necessary,' Riedel, pro moted by Clinton to top Middle East staffer on the National Security Council, deadpanned at the time. New York City was already on high alert after the September tragedy, and extra security was in place for the delayed opening of the United Nations General Assembly. The United States, for its part, would accept 'a dialogue in mutual re spect' about Iran's concerns, among them a halt in 'hostile behavior' toward Iran, the end of U.S. economic sanctions, access to peaceful nu clear technology, a clampdown on the MEK, and 'recognition of Iran's legitimate security interests in the region.' Baghdad had just fallen and the then White House national security adviser had summoned the top members of the National Intelligence Council to a meeting in the wood-paneled Situation Room in the basement of the West Wing. Ali Larijani, a bespectacled conservative intellectual with reddish hair and a fondness for European suits who fancies himself the Iranian Henry Kissinger, had succeeded Hassan Rowhani as national security adviser. At a formal press conference in the State Department's ornate Benjamin Franklin room, decorated with seventeenth- and eighteenth century American antiques, Rice sought to portray the concession -as she had the previous year's turnaround on WTO and airplane spare parts-as less a gesture toward Iran than toward the other permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. above all MKO and affiliated organiza tions in the US 230 APPENDIX US aims (Iran acceptg a dialovue 'in mutual respect' and agrees that the US puts the following aims on the agenda) • WMD: full transparency for security that there are no Iranian en deavors to develop or possess WMD, full cooperation with IAEA based on Iranian adoption of all relevant instruments (93+2 and all further IAEA protocols) • Terrorism: decisive action against any terrorists (above all Al Qaida) on Iranian territory, full cooperation and exchange of all rele vant information. sentiment and, 3-4 and axis of evil issue, 200-201 Iranian governmental system and, 64-73,78 Iranian history and, 13-14 - Iranian political opposition and, 156, 160, 162-64, 168, 172-73 Iranian reforms and, 106-7, 112-13, 115,119-20 Iranian revolution and, 1-4, 7-9, 11, 15-18,28-29,32,36,41,43-49,52, 63-67,69,71-74,78,80,83-86,88, 90,95,105-11,113,115,118-19, 122-23,125,127,136-37,141,146, 148,150,152,155,160-61,165,168, 172,174,176-77,184,220 Iranian young people and, 121-25, 132, 134-37 Iran-Iraq war and, 46-47 mullahs and, 139, 141-49, 151-53 9/11 terrorist attacks and, 4, 11 Revolutionary Guards and, 85-89, 93-94,97 U.S. Iran relations and, 177, 180, 195 Islamic Participation Front, 75 2,52 INDEX Islamic Republican Party, 74,168 Israel, 5, 7-8,10-11, 14-15,18, 100-101, 112,123,145,173,181-84,195-97, 204-5 Ahmadinejad and, 8, 43, 51-52, 56, 59-61,70,100,136,150 and containment of Iran, 181-83 governmental structure of, 74, 79 Iranian young people and, 135-36 nuclear programs and, 24-25, 27, 32, 34-35,37-38,53,226 Revolutionary Guards and, 87-89, 91-94 U.S. Iran relations and, 101, 176, 178, 186, 189, 205, 220, 224 Jaffari, Mohammad Javad, 20,100-101, 217 Jahanbegloo, Ramin, 173 Jabromi, Mohammad, 126 Jalaiepour, Hamid-Reza, 99 Jazi, Saeed, 45-46 Jondollah, 165 Jones, Zeke, 185 judiciary, Iranian, 73, 158, 176 - reforms and, 111-13,118,131 young people and, 131-32 Jurabloo, Zolfali, 20-21 Kadivar, Mohsen, 12, 55, 119, 149 Karbaschi, Gholamhossein, 3, 48, 81, 111-12,129 Karimi, Majid, 45 Karine A, 12, 91, 199 Karroubi, Mehdi, 50, 118, 190 governmental system and, 75, 80 Karzai, Hamid, 198 Katzman, Kenneth, 84, 92 Kerensky, Alexander, 119 Khalaji, Mehdi, 141-43, 147-48,151-52, 160 Khalilzad, Zalmay, 202-4, 216-19 Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali, 12, 43, 58, 97-99,103,111,126 and Ahmadinejad's opposition to Israel, 51-52 and dissidence in Qom, 148-49,151 governmental system and, 67-69, 72, 74-75,81 nuclear program and, 32, 69, 215 political opposition and, 158,164 reforms and, 48, 105-7, 114 Revolutionary Guards and, 93, 95-96, 99 U.S.-Iran relations and, 69, 176-78, 189-90,205,218 Khan, Abdul Qadeer, 29-30 Kharrazi, Kamal, 72, 200-201, 205 nuclear program and, 34-35 U.S.-Iran relations and, 177,186-87, 189,193 Kharrazi, Sadegh, 204-5 Khatami, Mohammad, 47-49, 51, 53-54, 56,58 governmental system and, 69-70, 72, 75,77-80 9/11 terrorist attacks and, 193-94 nuclear program and, 32, 99 political opposition and, 157, 159, 162 presidential campaigns of, 4, 10, 47, 77, 79,96-97,105-7,110-11,117, 130-32,136,157,175,184 reforms and, 10, 47-48, 99, 103-20, 126,131-32,136 Revolutionary Guards and, 91, 96-97, 99 U.S. Iran relations and, 4, 175-76, 184-90,194-95 young people and, 115-16,118, 123-24,126,130-32,136,159 Khobar Towers bombing, 183,188-89 Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah, 16-17, 43, 59,97,103,106,145-49,151-52 background of, 65-66 death of, I-2, 12, 32, 63, 67-68, 93, 111, 123, 148 and dissidence in Qom, 146-48 exile of, 7, 16, 66, 85, 141, 146 governmental system and, 63, 65-68, 71-74,80 hostage crisis and, 17, 65 INDEX 253 Iran-Iraq war and, 46-47, 87, 122-23 nuclear program and, 28-29 political opposition and, 156-57, 168 return to Iran of, 7, 16 Revolutionary Guards and, 65, 68, 85-86,93 U.S. Iran relations and, 177-78, 180, 186 young people and, 122-23, 125-26 Kissinger, Henry, 18,221, 226 Koran, 10, 143-44, 147, 152 Korea, North, 195-96,200 in axis of evil, 5, 12 nuclear program of, 25, 33-35, 212, 223 Kraftwerk Union, 28 Kurds, 47, 86, 180, 216 political opposition and, 161, 163-65 Kuwait, 47,179-81, 195 Lang, W. Patrick, 28, 37 Larijani, Ali, 18, 69 governmental system and, 72-73, 76-77 nuclear program and, 34, 36, 222-23 presidential campaigns of, 80, 95 U.S.-Iran relations and, 217-18 Laylaz, Sated, 52-53, 78, 120, 216 Lebanon, 20, 27, 66, 172-73, 189, 195 Hezbollah and, 18, 37, 55, 87-88, 182, 224-25,230 Revolutionary Guards and, 87-90, 93, 96 U.S. hostages in, 69,178-80 U.S.-Iran relations and, 101, 220, 224, 226,230 Ledeen, Michael, 160,165 Libya, 20, 29, 35 Livingstone, Neil, 168 Luther, Martin, 106 McInerney, Tom, 37 Mahallati, Mohammad, 144 Maleki, Abbas, 10 Mashayekhi, Mehrdad, 124-25 Masoumeh, Fatemeh, 141-42, 145-46 Meshkini, Ali, 75 Militant Clerics Association, 3, 74-75 Militant Clerics Society, 3, 75 Moaveni, Asadeh, 117 Mohadessin, Mohammad, 166-68 Mohammed, 4, 8, 10, 45, 56, 124,184 and beliefs of Shiites, 13-14 mullahs and, 139-40,142-44,146 Mohammedi, Zohra, 54,134 Mohebbian, Amir, 69 Moin, Mostafa, 80 Montazeri, Abroad, 149-50 Montazeri, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali, 67,97,146,148-49 Mossadegh, Mohammed, 15-16, 46, 53, 64, 113, 122, 145, 175 Mottahedeh, Roy, 144, 146 mountain retreats, 129-30 Mouradi, Ali, 170 Mousavi, Asghar, 54 Mousavian, Hossein, 35-36,39,213 Mughniyah, Imad, 88, 91 Muhtadi, Abdullah, 164 Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK), 25, 67, 86, 106,212 political opposition of, 166-71 U.S.-Iran relations and, 202-3, 205-6 mullahs, 139-53 dissidence of, 146-53 political activism of, 144-46, 149-51 studies of, 141-44 Najaf, 66, 92, 211, 229 mullahs and, 140-42, 151 Nargisi, Nedar, 54 Narmak, 44-45, 49, 81 Nast, Vali, 51, 60, 82, 100, 115, 118 mullahs and, 141-42, 144, 151 political opposition and, 173-74 Natanz, 23-26, 30, 33, 37, 167, 212, 215 Nateq Nouri, Ali Akbar, 105 governmental system and, 75, 79 presidential campaigns of, 111, 184 National Security Council (NSC), 87, 97, 180-81,188,202,226 and containment of Iran, 181, 186 U.S.-Iran relations and, 178,180,194 254 INDEX National Trust, 75 neoconservatives, 159, 178, 182, 224 and axis of evil issue, 200-201 Iranian governmental system and, 75-76 rise to power of, 48, 50 . And there was no doubt that Moore was the star that June night, with the red carpet and fans and limousines and security men talking into their cuff links. [National Security Advisor Sandy] Berger suggested sending one U-2 flight, but Clarke opposed even this. The Kerry direc tive was just one paragraph in a longer morning memo outlin ing the highlights of the coming day's coverage (that day's memo also covered the war in Iraq, then-national security advisor Condoleezza Rice's upcoming testimony before Con gress, the prescription drug case against conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, and congressional hearings on the United 154 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY Nations oil-for-food scandal). The study even included an actual report card, small enough to fit in one's pocket, which read like this: CLASS GRADE COMMENTS Terrorist Threat C- Needs strategy, focus on Afghanistan Homeland Security D+ Good intentions, weak follow-through Nonproliferation F Increased threat, paid no attention Military Power D Stretched too thin, need to honor troops 204 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY The sixty-six-page report elaborated on some of those themes. One could pick any issue-Iraq, Social Security reform, judicial nominations, American treatment of terrorist prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, Karl Rove and the Plamegate affair, the ethics probe of Tom DeLay, Hurricane Katrina-and The Progress Report would have the pithiest statement of the attack du jour on the Bush administration. Cheney was a true believer: national security and economic health required a boost in energy production, and that in turn re quired a rollback of stifling rules. According to Donald L. Kerrick, a retired three-star Army general who served on the White House national security staff until early that summer, they could not get the attention of Bush or his top advisers. The national security 'princi pals,' Cheney and the cabinet-rank advisers, declined to decide. In an interview about a related intelligence tool, the 'national security letter' that enables the FBI to review a person's telephone and banking records, a senior FBI official gave an explanation that others used privately to justify the NSA program. Matter of na tional security. Cheney confers with Bush by phone from the White House bunker on September 11, 2001, as (left to right) counselor Karen Hughes, vice presidential counsel David Addington (standing), National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice (sitting), and counselor Mary Matalin listen in. The president, the vice president, and the national security adviser con sulted. With security clearances approved by Feith, Wurmser now had direct ac cess to a wide array of sensitive source materials. New York, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas, the biggest venues, got most of the public at tention, with conspicuous new security precautions. Wurmser and John Hannah, a senior staff member who later became Cheney's national security adviser, met other opposition fig- ANGLER ures as well. Then there was John Bellinger, the legal counsel to National Security Ad viser Condoleezza Rice. He thinks of the national ANGLER security interest or the prerogatives of the executive. The Bush-Cheney strategy after September 11, with its claims of White House supremacy and its sharp tilt from civil liberty to state command, estranged even proponents of a unitary executive and a strong national security state. In the U.S. government, those communications take place in a SCIF, pronounced 'skiff,' which is described in Director of Central Intelligence Directive 6/9, 'Physical Security Standards for Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities,' Nov. 18, 2002, available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/dcid6-9.htm. 248 Hodgkinson, Sandra, 347 Hoffman, Paul, 39-40, 198, 200 Hollings, Entz, 71 Holt, Lester, 249 Homeland Security Department, U.S., 233, 236, 260 House of Representatives, U.S, 93, 107, 156, 300 Intelligence Committee of, 300-302 Interior Committee of, 200 Speaker of, 155, 156, 157 Ways and Means Committee of, 69, 272-73 Howard, John, 339,372 Hubbard, Glenn, 256, 269, 270, 274 Hughes, Karen, 7,18-19,22,23,24-25,49,90,105, 130,167,309 Hu brown, 373 Human Rights Watch, 188 Hurricane Katrina, 132, 328-30,386 Hussein, Saddam, 42,188, 215, 216, 217, 229, 232, 235, 238, 249, 251, 252, 332 al Qaeda's asserted links to, 218, 224 Hussein,Uday,247 hydrogen,91 impeachment, 312 income taxes, 265, 269, 272 Independent Counsel Act, 101 independent counsels, to],291 Information Security Oversight Office, 392,393 intelligence community, 110, 139-40 19705 reforms of, 140-41 see a&o p,, ,f,, agenziu Intelligence Oversight Act, 1 W interagency reviews, 162-63 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 85 Interior Department, U.S., 38, 195-96,198, 199, 200,202,209 see ;Lrospecifeagencies Internal Revenue Service, Ill, 73 International Criminal Court, 63, 175 international law, 163,169,295 Iran,113,242-43,370 Bush and, 368, 369,374 Cheneyand, 235,242,243,367-70,385 intelligence service of, 228, 230 nuclear program of, 228, 229, 245-46, 367-69 Quds Force of, 230 regime change in, 241-12, 244 as sponsurofcermrism,227,228,229,235-36, 368 Iran-Contra hearings, 8 Iran-Syria Operations Group, 242 Iraq: de-Bamhification commission in, 333 elections in, 338 nuclear prograin of,216-19,221 terrorist ties of, 227, 332-33 UN inspectors in,220,221 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of, 220 U.S. maps obtained by, 220, 221 W MD, and, 217-I8 WMD watch in, 247-48 Iraqi Intelligence Service, 332 Iraqi National Congress, 246, 248 Iraq Survey Group, 247 Iraq War, 106,113, 229, 285, 328, 331, 343, 369, 394 Bush and, 232-33, 370, 374 Cheneyand, 232,367,374,386 congressional authorization for, 216-17 cost of, 266 falling public support for, 37-38,337 -38, 392 insurgencyin,249-53,336,367 Isikoff, Michael, 28-29 Islamic world, view of U.S. in, 379 Israel, 368 Israelite, David, 305 l afar, Jaffar .1_, Daniel, 305 Lewes, Bernard, 231 Lewis, William M, 211-12 Libby, I. Lewis 'Scooter,' 41-42, 47, 50-51, 55, 69, 80,96,131,143,157,185,189,225,241,244, 253,332,335,343,352,356,376,378,392 as assistant to the president, 44, 376 as Cheney's chief of staff and national security adviser, 43-44 literary and imaginative bent of, 42-43 as negotiator, 41 nickname of, 41-42 in 9/11 response, 114, 116, 118, 119, 120, 121 Plame case and, 360-64, 385, 386 Libya, as sponsorofterrorism,227 Lincoln, Abraham, 126,324,391 Lindsey, Lawrence B, 56, 116, 265, 269, 271 link analysis, 141, 223-24 Los Angeles, Calif, 234 Lost River suckers, 197, 201 Len, Trent, 78, 79 Lowenthal, Mark, 235 Lower, Deborah, 122 Lubranl, Uri, 241-42 Lundquist, Andrew, 82, 84, 93 Lori, William, 225, 247, 333 Luttig, J. Michael, 359 MacArthur, Douglas, 394 McCain, John, 1, 28, 273, 328, 351, 352, 353, 369, 387,388 McCallum, Robert, 305 McCarthy, Andrew, 99 McClellan, Scott, 198, 328-39 McConnell, John, 114 McCormack, Brian V, 32, 33, 36, 46, 263 McGrath, Dean, 158 Mack, Count, 17 McLaughlin,John, 111,112 Index Makin, John, 72,263 Malbin, Michael, 92 Mali., 145,248,362 Nichols, Rob, 261 9/11 Commission, 120-22, 124, 125, 344 9/11 la,g, 121 Nltze, Paul, 223 Nixon, Richard, I4, 15, 56, 100, 101, 177, 204, 312, 322,328 No Child Left Behind Act, 270 Norquisq Grover, 264 North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), 123,125 North Korea, 113, 24011, 252, 343 Cheney and, 230, 371-73, 374, 375 nuclear inventory of, 372, 375 nuclear program of, 228-29, 245, 372-73 as sponsor ofterrorism,227,228,229 unification and, 373 U.S. negotiations with, 240-41, 372-73,374, 375, 376 Norton, Gale, 38, 2112, 203, 210, 212 Novak, Robert, 361 NSC,see National Security Council nuclear power, 91 nuclear terrorism, 233-35 nuclear weapons, 160,216,217-18,219,221,228-29, 245-46,367-69 O'Connor,Sandra Day, 359 O'Donnell, Terry, 87 Office of Legal Council (OLC), 133-34, 135, 137, 163-64, 172, 173, 177, 180, 182, 190, 278, 279, 283, 284, 291, 293, 296, 300, 346 Office of Management and Budget (OMB), 39,167, 199-200,259-61,351,393 Office of National Preparedness, 112 Office of Political Affairs, 202 Office of Regulatory Enforcement, 208 Office of Special Plans, 225 Ohio, 327 oil, 91, 370 oil industry, 94, 204, 205 O'Keefe, Sean, 38-39, 78, 79 Oklahoma, I, 29 Oklahoma City bombing, 2, 4 Olson, Theodore B., 270, 305, 345 O'Neil I, Paul, 37-38,60, 71, 264, 265, 266, 269, 271, 378 Operation Afghan Eyes, 109 Oregon, 1%,201,202 Ornstein, Norman, 157-58 OSD Cables, 222 overregulation,38,91 Pabian,Frank, 220-21 Pace, Peter, 234 Padilla,Jose, 344-45,358 Pahlavi,Reza,237,238 Pakistan, 228,229 Panetta, Leon, 260 Perhat, Huzaifs, 357 parkland preservation, 198,205 Peuki, George, 21-22, 22,40 Patriot Act, 139 Paulson, Henry, 364 Pentagon, 9/11 terrorist attack on, 115 Perry, Philip J., 10, 199 Persian Gulf War, 26, 36, 42, 219, 231, 251 Petraeus, David, 127-28 Philbin,Patrick, 164,28738,291,292-93,295,303, 305,315,321,324,345-46,378 Philippines crisis, 58-59, 120 Pike, Otis, 100, 140 Pinion, Stuart, 212 Plane, Valerie, 361 plenary authority, 135 plenary powers, 135 Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group, 225 Polsby,Nelson, 88 Portman, Rob, 95, 260-61 Potenza, Vitu, 278-79, 280, 281, 292 Powell, Alma, 46 Powell, Colin, 17, 26,3&-37, 46, 60, 89, 90, 162, 166, 168,175,224,234,236,333,341,342,346-47, 372,378 detainee policy and, 162, 166, 168, 170-71, 173, 178,190 power planks, coal-fired, 197, 198, 204-9 Predator drone, 109,112 prescription drugs, 68 Presrnr at the Creation (Acheson), 253 president: as commander to chief, 135, 183, 279, 281, 288, 312 plenary powers of, 135 role of, 97-99 'unitary executive' powers of, 96-97 seta power of, 99 presidential authority, 129, 133, 137-38,183, 277, 302,379-80 Addington and, 82, 93, 97, 104, 105, 130, 131-32, 135-36,138,144,154,312-13,321,378 Bush and, 101-2,105,324-25 Cheney and, 82, 93, 96-99, 1110, 101-2, 104-7, 130, 301, 388, 394 Congress and, 82, 98-99, 138, 152, 313 You on, 135, 183 Presidential Decision Directive 67,154 Index Presidential Emergency Operations Center, 115-19, 128-30,156-57 Presidential Records Act, 100-101 Presidential Succession Act of 1947, 154 Presidents Daily Brief, 111, 244-45, 297,316-17 Principals Committee, 53-54, 112 prisoners of war, 168, 169, 170,285 Prosper, Pierre, 162-63, 166,168 public opinion: Addington on, 379 Cheney as indifferent to, 50, 386, 389,390-91 on Iraq War, 337 38,392 in Islamic world, 379 Putnam, Adam H., 272 Qahtani, Mohammed, 185, 186, 187, 188, 358 Qanbar, Entifzdah, 247 Quayle, Dan, 7, 14, 19-20, 23, 38, 50, 51, 120, 384 Cheney's meeting with, 5730, 388 questionnaire, for vice-presidential search, 3-4, 8 14,28 Racicoq Marc, 411 Raddatz,Martha, 390-91 radiological dispersion devices, 160 Rasul, Shafiq, 344-45 Ravich, Samantha, 225, 252 Reagan, Ronald, 25, 27, 34, 35, 41, 59-60, 72, 101, 169,187,258-59,262,267 Reagan administration, 12, 97,101, 205, 210 recession oF2002, 261 Red River (film), 49 Reel, Nina Shokrab, 68, 160 regime change, 238-42, 244 Rehnquist, William, 8, 125, 133, 358, 360 Reiner, Jonathan S., 25 Rice, Condoleezza, 39,43 -44, 60, 85, 88-89, 90, 11 h 142, 143, 144,234, 236, 246, 284, 298, 299, 309, 316, 317, 321, 329, 333, 339, 346-47, 349, 373, 374,376,380-81,384 Abu Ghraib and, 188-90 detainee policy and, 163, 166, 167, 168, 169, 173, 177-78, 180.81, Tom, 174 Smith, Gordon, 201 Smith, Robert, 38, 200, 202, 203, 209, 210, 21 1, 212 Snow, Tuny, 323, 377 Street, Olympia, 63,328 Social Security, 328 Southern Command, U.S., 186 South Korea, 373,374 Soviet Union, 239-40,241 Speaker of the House, 155, 156, 157 special education, 77 Specter, Arlen, 57, 61, 625, 378-79 Spencer, Stuart, 87-88 staffing loops, 55 'Star Chamber,' 74 State Department, U.S., 36-37,42, 59, 85, 164, 171, 173, 178, 227, 242, 350, 372 steel tariff, 270 Stevn, Jams, 23 stem cell research, 328 Steve Kris Show, The, 76-77 Stewart, Jon, 385 subprime mortgage crisis, 132 succession law, 154-58 Sudan, as sponsor of terrorism, 227 suitcase nuclear weapons scenario, 217 Sullivan, Emmet, 10 7 Sunni,333 'supply side' economics, 73, 257-58, 264 Supreme Court, U.S., 107, 125,163 detainee policy and, 344-45, 353, 354-55, 377, 378 nominations for, 358-59 and 2000 election, 26, 31, 35, 61 Suskind, Run, 265 Syria, a, pcm.u-of A photocopy of the article was found by researcher Max Friedman in the V VAW files of the House Internal Security Committee, a document from Files and References materials, 206 Notes Notes 207 Record Group 233, Records of the House of Representatives, Boxes 750 3. See Howland, John Gridley, U.S.S., 23, 198 Griffin, H.C., Jr., 191 Groves, I.B.S. (Boydl, Jr., 191 Grutzius, Chutes R., 191 Gunther, F. L. Skip 'Mustang Sally', 191 H Halpin, Bill, 191 Hammer, Don C., 191 Hannity a7 Colones, 46 Hunion, Rock, 191 HarperCollins, 179 Harris, Fred, 158 Harris, Keith C., 191 Harris, Stewart M., 191 Hart, Gene, 191 Hart, Philip A., 102, 100 Harvard Crimson, 78 Harvard University, 1 Hastings, Bob, 191 Hatch, Steven, 48 Hatfield, Mark, 112 Hatler, Curt, 191 Hecker, John, 191 Henry V(Shakespearej, 184-85 Herman, Chuck, 191 Herrera, Raul, 191 Herritage, Tom, 191 Hibbard, Grant 'Skip': Kerry's political ambi tion and, 26; Kerry's Purple Hearts and, 35, 36, 37-40; Kerry's service records and, 181; 48, 49; Kerry's fitness to command and, 3, 19; Kerry's fraudulent awards and, 30, 84; Kerry's military service and, 75; Kerry's political ambition and, 21; Kerry's service records and, 182; Kerry's war crime accusations and, 64, 66, 67-69; Sampan incident and, 58; SBVT letter and, 51, 188, 191 Holden, William P., 191 Holloway, Wayland, 191 Home to War: A History o/ the Vietnam Veter ans'Movement (Nicosia(, 135 Hooke, Robert, 191 Hope, Bob, 49, 198 Horne, Andy, 191 House Internal Security Committee, 2051ni Howell, John, 191 Howland, John, 30 Hubbard, At, 13, 14, 110; coordinating with enemy of, 130-34; Kerry's last conversation with, 156-58; Kerry's war crime accusations and, 153 ) military service of, 125-26; The New Soldier and, 150-51; Statue of Liberty takeover and, 159; VVAW and, 124-26, 156-57 Hudson, Warren, 191 Hughes, Karen, 145 Humphrey, Hubert, 15 Hunt, Charles W., 191 Hunt, Robert, 191 Hurley, John, 178-80 Ikerd, Gail E. 'Ice', 191 I Indochina, 121 Internet, 130 Iowa, 80, 92 Iraq, 188 Index J Jackson, Henry 'Scoop', 15 Javits, Senator, 102 Jenny, Warren D., 191 wwwJohnKerry.com, 'American policy,' the letter declared, 'cannot continue to be crip pled by a misguided insistence on unanimity in the UN Security Council.' Cleland, a Democrat and a disabled The Real McCain Vietnam vet, lost his Georgia Senate seat, in large part owing to TV ads pairing Cleland with Osama bin Laden and implying that Cleland was soft on homeland security. See also Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act firefighters, 32-34 Forbes, Steve, 13 Ford, Harold, Jr., 98, 121 Fox, Sam, 94 Franks, Trent, 49 Free Ride: John McCain and the Media (Brock and Waldman), 65-66 Frist, Bill, 147-48 gay and lesbian issues, 41-42, 104, 117, 118 gay marriage, 2, 17, 117-18 Geneva Conventions, 126 Gerstein, josh, 84 G.I. Bill, 38 Gigante,Joe, 110 Gingrich, Newt, 22 Giuliani, Rudolph William Louis ('Rudy'), 144,147 Holmes, Stephen, 119 Glenn, John, 79 homeland security. See Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act McCain-GOP blockade in Senate, 31-32 McCain Mutiny, 87 McKinnon, Mark, 83 media, 13, 24-25, 65 Meehan, Martin, 84 Menendez, Robert, 33 Military Commissions Act, 126-29 minimum wage, 29-30 Moran, Terry, 84 Murtha, John, 73 National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) convention, 1-2 180 The Real McCain national security, 26-28, 31-34. When he and another Brookings colleague, Mike O'Hanlon, returned from a visit to Iraq in July 2007, they wrote a New York Times op-ed arguing that the 'surge' in U.S. forces showed signs of success in tamping down the insurgency, while noting that progress on the security front had not yet been translated into political reconciliation in Baghdad. This, in turn, has been a tremendous source of strength and security to the United States: we have not had to fear attack by most of the countries of the world and have typi cally been able to count on their friendship and assistance instead. CONTENTS
Foreword by Strobe Talbott ix Preface xv introduction: why a Grand Strategy for the Middle East? xxix map of the middle East xlvi-xlvii PART ONE: America's Interests in the Middle East Chapter i Oil 5 Chapter 2 Israel 24 Chapter 3 America's Arab Allies 50 Chapter 4 Nonproliferation and Noninterests 59 PART TWO: The Problems of the Modern Middle East Chapter 5 A Sea of Socioeconomic Problems 69 Chapter 6 The Crisis of Middle Eastern Politics 102 PART THREE: The Threats We Face from the Middle East Chapter 7 Political Islam 125 Chapter 8 The Threat from Instability and Internal Strife 133 Chapter 9 The Threat of Terrorism 168 PART FOUR: The Core of a Grand Strategy for the Middle East Chapter to Enabling Reform 221 Chapter 11 Meeting the Challenges of Reform 246 Chapter 12 Principles for Encouraging Reform in the Middle East 290 xxviii I CONTENTS Chapter 13 Trade-offs 311 PART FIVE: A Region of Crises Chapter 14 The Dilemma of Iraq 341 Chapter 15 The Challenge of Iran 357 Chapter 16 The Importance of the Arab-Israeli Conflict 376 Chapter 17 Other Security Problems 392 PART SIX: Looking Farther down the Path Chapter 18 Enter the Dragon 419 Conclusion: The Path before us 431 Acknowledgments 437 Notes 443 Index 517 INTRODUCTION Why a Grand Strategy for the Middle East?

.„..T None of the administration's seniormost members-the president, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, or Secretary of xxxv(ii I INTRODUCTION Defense Donald Rumsfeld-really cared about the Middle East at all. They decided to try 'smart sanctions' on Iraq as a last-ditch ef fort to maintain a coalition in the U.N. Security Council to keep the pressure on Saddam to comply with his various obligations to the United Nations. Finally, Israel's decisions to 'take risks for peace' over the years would have been unimaginable without unstinting U.S. support for its existence and its security. While at some level the Jordanians, Saudis, Egyptians, and other Arabs might be glad to see the United States cut its ties to Israel, at an other level they might find it deeply disturbing-both because of the loss of America as a restraint on Israeli behavior and because of what it 40 1 AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST might imply for their own security if the United States ever decided that they too had become inconvenient allies. However, perhaps of equal importance, the Gulf states have purposely funneled their money and their contracts to the United States to ensure that Washington always has an interest in their safety and security if the Arab states did not see us as their great protector, they would likely find other investment opportuni- S4 I AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST ties and places to buy weapons and airplanes. This is one reason why it is so im portant for the international community to punish Iran for its re fusal to comply with the demands o£ the IAEA and the U.N. Security Council that it discontinue its uranium enrichment and plutonium separation programs. Those in power today, however, survived that Dar winian struggle precisely by evolving into what James Quinlivan of RAND has described as largely 'coup-proof' regimes that maintain CHAPTER 6 Ioq 1 THE PROBLEMS OF THE MODERN MIDDLE EAST extensive internal security and internal intelligence capabilities to monitor the citizenry for any signs of dissension. Insta bility in the region has not caused a sudden, massive loss of regional oil exports, has only marginally contributed to Israel's security prob lems, and has not provoked sudden regime change in any of our re gional allies since the fall of the shah. If the general predisposition of society is against the terrorists, there is a fairly high likelihood that someone will not only notice their actions but report them to the security services explicitly so that they can be prevented. On the other hand, if the populace is generally sympathetic to the terrorist or, to be more accurate, gener ally antagonistic to the regime, there is a much lower likelihood that these actions will be reported to the security services. Even if you believe that the status quo can some how hold for several decades more and are willing to risk the security of the United States on that bet, it is hard to argue that it has been good for America so far. How ever, it might be possible to convince them eventually to accept a hybrid system, in which the monarch would retain primary responsi bility for national security and foreign policy but most responsibility for domestic policy would devolve to a prime minister and a parlia ment. The Egyptians are grateful (increasingly grudgingly) both for the aid itself and for 116 I THE CORE OF A GRAND STRATEGY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST the commitment to their security that it represents. Transferred to the Persian Gulf region, similar develop ments could be disastrous for a range of American interests, espe- )46 1 A REGION OF CRISES cially the potential for sudden major oil disruptions but also includ ing the potential for destabilization to affect the security of various American allies in the region, particularly Jordan, which is both weak and highly vulnerable to problems emanating from Iraq.' They have been reticent to go to Iraq, both because of the security situation and because they are loath to become part of the American chain of command, but they would be happy to be part of a UN.-led It would also allow the Israeli people to devote their considerable talents toward pros perity and away from security. A real peace would ensure the security and existence of Israel as the only democracy in the Middle East and remove the Jewish people's search for a national homeland as a source of international conflict. When Middle East ern publics believe that a peace process is moving ahead and will ul timately deliver justice and security for all sides, there will be fewer angry Arabs willing to join terrorist groups or provide them with the kind of passive support that is vital to terrorist operations. Either way, such improvements in security are the vital precondition for making progress on any of the other inadequacies of the current Palestinian political and economic infrastructure.' CHAPTER 17 OTHER SECURITY PROBLEMS 394 1 A REGION OF CRISES Moreover, Lebanon's unique cultural heritage-as a descendant of the Crusader states of the Middle Ages-has bound it closely to the West, particularly to France but through the French also to the United States. For twenty years, Iran has demanded that the United States, Iraq, and the GCC take its security concerns seriously, and a regional security forum would give Iran a venue and an opportunity to discuss those concerns for the first time. Inviting Iran to discuss security issues in the Persian Gulf region at the same table with the United States would give Tehran the sense that it was finally getting the respect from Washington that it believes it de serves. 392, 393 ACRS process and, 408-9 anti-Americanism and, 338 arms control and, 411-12 oil and, 34-35 regional instability and, 35 regional security forum proposal for, 409-11 and risk of interstate war, 411-12 see also Arab-Israeli peace process; Israeli-Palestinian conflict Arab-Israeli peace process, x, xxi, xxxviii, x11, 171, 196,312,318,348-49,363, 368,382-83 Ayalon-Nusseibah agreement and, 383 Beilin-Abu Mazen plan and, 383 Clinton administration and, xxxv, 37, 46, 47.55 223, 295 anti-Americanism and, 197-98 cultural conflict and, 96, 99, ioi Golan Heights, 399 Goldstonn, Baruch, 2o8 Goldstone, Jack, 139, r8o Gore, Al, 227 Gotchev Atanas, 198 Grand Mosque of Mecca, 137 Hizballah's assault on,152-53 grand strategy: Cold War lessons in, 4o6-8 future changes in, 4111-M Iraq War in, 346-50 necessity for, xl-xlv, 123 Persian Gulf security and, 408-9 time factor in, 217-18, 415 Great Britain, xii, 26, 29, 147, 149, 164, 426 historic Middle East role of, xxix-xxxv, 422-23 Ireland and, 33-34. 400,411 dual containment strategy for, 337 media in,112 regional security conference idea and, 409-10 as 'Republic of Fear,' 104 support for democracy in, 240-41 Twin Pillars strategy and, xxxv-xxxii 2005 election in, 268 unemployment in, 140 U.S. aid to, 253, 274 see also Iran-Iraq War Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies, 240 Iraq War, xi, xvi, xxvi, xxxviii, 15-16, 17, 46, 114, 167, 206, 217, 257, 285, 291, 311. 427, 428 Iran's nuclear program and, 361, 362, 368,373 Iraq War and, 342, 347 - 48 Palestine partitioned by, 26, 29 Persian Gulf security forum and, 409-10 Resolution 242 of, 34 Somalia intervention and, 45 United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), 389, 396, 397,427 United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 232 U.N. Protection Force (UNPROFOR), 54 urbanization, 12o instability and, 143,144 - 46 Iranian Revolution and, 145 in MENA, 73 - 74,74 population growth and, 73 - 74 , 74 V Venezuela, xviii, 6,82 Viet Minh, 188 Vietnam, Republic of (South Viettlatn), 147,156 Vietnam War, 343, 344, 419 Viorst, Milton, 94 W Wahhab, Muhammad ibn'Abd al-, 135n War on Terror, x, 67, 257, 291, 335 - 36 proclamation of, 67 Warsaw Pact, 409,421 Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 206 Washington Post, 270 Waskow, Arthur, 214 Waterbury John, 75, 92,96 weapons of mass destruction (WMD), xi, xxv, xxvi, 6o, 61-62,165, 217, 230,314,402.403.404 From 1995 to 1996 and from 1999 to 2001, he served as director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, where he was the principal working-level official responsible for implementation of U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, and the states of the Arabian Peninsula. During this direct observation of HI TOADS and their neighborhoods, I paid particular attention to building [290] APPENDIX H and site conditions, the extent of security at the site, neighborhood condi tions, and indicators of criminal activity, arson, or dumping. The How to Prosper in the Age of the Obomonomics How We Got In This Mess average American doesn't pay for it, so why should they worry? They depend on their government checks such as student loans, federal and state employee paychecks, pension checks, Social Security, disability, Medicare, Medicaid, other entitlements, etc., On page 425 of the Health-care Bill under consider ation by the House of Representatives, it says in black and white that everyone on Social Security (which includes all senior citizens and Social Security recipients) will go to mandatory counseling every five years to learn (among other things) about how to choose a way to end your suffering and your life. 61 How to Prosper in the Age of the Obamonomics Inflation Tens of millions of people don't question that Social Security will be there for them upon retirement and will provide a comfort able life. This new work includes not only recent studies of income instability but also a wide range of opinion surveys on perceptions of economic security that have made much clearer just how many Americans are at economic risk and why. Meanwhile, under the label of the 'Ownership Society,' President George W Bush and his allies have called for new individual retirement accounts to replace the guaranteed protection of Social Security and indi vidual 'Health Savings Accounts'-high-deductible health plans that require people to pay for much of their medical care out of individual private accounts-to replace Medicare and workplace health insurance. Alexis de Tocqueville once marveled at AV PREFACE TO THE REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION Americans' enthusiastic embrace of 'self-interest rightly under stood,' a philosophy of individualism that nonetheless celebrated aid to others and shared sacrifices Self-interest rightly understood means tackling the erosion economic security not just because it is morally troubling or harmful to those at the bottom, but because it is ultimately bad for us all. An drea Case's parents never enjoyed the same economic highs that she did, but they had higher expectations of security: a stable middle-class income, a guaranteed pension, good health insurance coverage, greater economic security for their kids. Work, family, and public and private benefits have all grown more risky at roughly the same time, which is one reason why the weakening of these traditional sources of security has proved so sweeping and so difficult to address. But who killed eco nomic security and why remains a mystery that we have only just begun to plumb. The threat level started rising around 12 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT the time of my youth, slowly eroding the confidence of middle-class Americans that they'd have stable jobs, generous benefits, and smooth upward mobility, and that their children would enjoy greater economic security than they'd enjoyed. Yet roughly half of Americans agreed that 'America no longer has the same economic security it has had in the past,' while another fifth thought the statement could be true down the road. (In 2001, for example, spend ing by public and private social programs like Medicare, Social Security, workplace retirement pensions, and unemployment in surance represented a quarter of our economy. And a gen eration ago, nobody in Washington talked about turning Medicare into a system of competing private health plans or transforming employer-provided health insurance into a system of individual Health Savings Accounts, much less about privatizing Social Security-at least if they wanted their careers to continue. Over the past two decades, in sum, the corporate and govern ment policies that once provided a basic foundation of economic 38 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT security for American workers and their families have run head long into a collection of beliefs, institutions, and advocates that I call the 'Personal Responsibility Crusade.' Its intellectual and organizational leaders are the primary force pressing for plans to further transform American social protections most notably, Social Security. In early 2005, when President Bush was beginning his ill-fated cam paign to privatize Social Security, a top White House aide wrote to his boss Karl Rove (with excessive hubris, it turns out): 'For the first time in six decades, the Social Security battle is one we can win-and in doing so, we can help transform the political and philo sophical landscape of the country. But his charge 40 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT was ambitious, even radical-to assist with the development of what was being called the Economic Security Act, the greatest break yet with the federal government's historically hands-off policy toward victims of economic misfortune. The crafters of the Economic Security Act believed that insurance had to be avail able and within the means of those who needed insurance most. The wealthy had long taken basic economic security of this sort for granted, in part because of longstanding protections for busi- RISKING IT ALL 43 nesses and entrepreneurs whose investments went sour.' National security is not a half and half matter: it is all or none .1120 Social insurance extended economic security to those least capable of obtaining it on their own-namely, those with modest means or a high probability of needing assistance. FDR put it best in a 1938 address commemorating the third anniversary of the Social Secu rity Act: 'We must face the fact that in this country we have a rich man's security and a poor man's security and that the Govern ment owes equal obligations to both. The pri vate pension consultant who had lobbied most actively for letting employers that operated private retirement plans opt out of Social Security later exclaimed: 'It was the greatest mistake of my life. Even corporations that had fought the old-age insurance legis lation, or argued that employers with private pensions should be 44 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT exempted from it, came to recognize the substantial benefits of building their retirement plans on top of Social Security. RISKING IT ALL 45 Picture Perfect In the robust economy that followed World War II, many large employers embraced their invigorated role in ensuring economic security with true enthusiasm. Government was not only incapable of providing economic security, in other words; it actu ally hurt it by harming the economy. Reagan also pushed for massively expanded Individual Re tirement Accounts (IRAs) as an alternative to both Social Security and traditional pensions. A keen student of Margaret Thatcher, Butler believed that the only way to cut back government's role in providing eco nomic security was to offer voters an attractive alternative vision of government's role that was rooted in the self-interest of power ful private actors. Moreover, growing sectors of the economy-especially the service sector, with its mass of low-wage and part-time jobs, the majority of them occupied by women-feature persistently low wages, little or no job security, and few if any benefits. Manu facturing, with its mass of stable, blue-collar jobs, has been in steep decline, while an increasing share of employment is in knowledge and service industries marked by large differentials in pay and benefits and, often, limited job security. If we look at the landscape through the prism of risk instead, we see that the most fundamental transformation felt by most work ers is much simpler and more profound: the loss of the belief that RISKY JOBS 65 jobs provide a stable path to or guaranteed place in the American middle class-the loss, in a nutshell, of workplace security. A 1997 poll of large employ ers found that 69 percent had abandoned policies of job security, RISKY JOBS 69 such as no-layoff rules, while only 3 percent said they still had such policies. 37 One of the main reasons the rise of the service sector is such a profound change is that the skills developed in manufacturing do not transfer easily to the frequently low-productivity world of ser- RISKY JOBS 81 vice work, endangering the economic security of those who must make the perilous leap. But the central issue for retirement security isn't the return, but the risk. In effect, integration meant that workers received pensions from their employers that took into account Social Security pay ments. If their Social Security benefits were higher, their private benefits were lower. Indeed, soon after Social Security was passed, most companies that operated private plans began to build their plans on top of Social Security, a practice known as 'integra tion.' If their Social Security benefits went up, their private benefits went down. The result was a transformation as profound as the one that Javits had confidently foreseen, yet ultimately far less happy for the cause of American retirement security. As early as 1983, Stuart Butler-the Waldo of the conservative policy move ment we met earlier-had co-authored a strategy memo in which he called for expanding tax-free private accounts into 'a small- RISKY RETIREMENT 121 scale private Social Security system,' while mobilizing 'banks, in surance companies, and other institutions that will gain from pro viding such plans to the public.'' But, of course, in the real world, it is not so easy to turn a retire ment account into a lifetime guaranteed income of the sort that 128 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT Social Security and defined-benefit pensions provide-which brings us to the second big risk of defined-contribution plans: outliving one's assets. At the same time that private pensions have grown more risky and uncertain due to the decline of defined-benefit pensions and the expansion of defined-contribution plans, critics of Social Security have argued that the program should be reformed to look more like, well, defined-contribution plans. (How, for example, could Social Security so grievously disadvan tage women when they received so much more back from the pro gram relative to what they had paid in than did men? How could the program be running on empty when Republicans were calling for using the surplus in the program's trust fund to pay for new tax cuts?) But the plausibility of the Chicken Little chorus was less important than its overall impact. What Social Security had going for it, besides the fact that people liked its basic goal, was that millions of Americans had paid into it and expected to get back what they had been promised when they retired. Convincing Americans that the chance of getting full Social Security benefits was lower than the chance of aliens landing on Earth-as one hu morous but completely bungled anti-Social Security survey sug gested most younger workers felt-made the task of blowing up the present system that much easier.' It is that Social Security should RISKY RETIREMENT 135 jump on the 401(k) bandwagon and expose workers to even more of the risk that Social Security was originally designed to protect them from. And yet all this spending has not bought Americans the one thing that health insurance is supposed to provide: security. As the Social Security Act was being finalized, one inter nal report to Roosevelt declared, '[Tlhe problem of medical care should not be regarded as being a third or fourth item in a general RISKY HEALTH CARE 145 program for economic security. The Health Security Act-1,342 pages long and based on an intricately complicated theory known as 'man aged competition°-was certainly dead on arrival. President Bill Clinton told it in a speech to a joint session of Congress in September 1993, on the eve of the introduction of his ill-fated Health Security Act. Just as private accounts in Social Security threaten to exacerbate the increasingly uncer tain world of pensions, Health Savings Accounts are poised to make the increasingly risky world of private health insurance even more fragmented and frightening. Elinor Sheridan looks for a job at seventy because she can't live on Social Security alone. Per sonal responsibility has its place:&ericans will indeed need to do much to secure themselves in the new world of work and fam ily, but they should be able to do it in a context in which govern s ment and employers act as a help, not a hindrancae And they should be protected by an improved safety net t hat fills the most glaring gaps in present protections, providing all Americans with the basic CONCLUSION 167 financial security they need to reach for the future-as workers, as parents, and as citizens. v 178 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT To seize the opportunity, the ideals and institutions of economic security need to be refashioned for the twenty-first century. Yet these goals need to be achieved in ways that are consistent with provid ing basic financial security. Because of the limits of the CWHS, it, too, examines only individual earnings, not family incomes, and, like the CBO study, it excludes self-employment earnings: Wojciech Kopczuk and Emmanuel Saez, 'Uncovering the American Dream: Inequality and Mobility in Social Security Earnings Data since 1937,' mimeo, University of California, Berkeley, September 15, 2007, available online at http://elsa.berkeley.edu/-saez/kopczuk-saez Elisabeth Jacobs, 'The Politics of Economic Security,' Issues in Governance Studies Issue Paper No. 10, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, September 2007, 13, available online at www3.brookings.edu/views/papers/jacobs2OO7O913.pdf. But the CBO study also includes a more limited analysis of male workers whose incomes could not be expected to exceed the threshold for Social Security taxation. Among these male workers, who can be examined using Social Security records before 1980, earnings variability rose between the 1970s and 1980s just what the PSID shows. See Fay Lomax Cook and 228 NOTES TO PAGES 131-138 Lawrence R. Jacobs, 'Americans'Attitudes Toward Social Security: Popular Claims Meet Hard Data,' National Academy of Social Insur ance, Social Security Brief, No. 10, March 2001, available online at www.nasi.org/usr I found this document thanks to the careful review of the CES materials by Jaap Kooijman, 'Condition Critical: The Exclusion of a National Health Insurance Program from 230 NOTES TO PAGES 145-153 the Social Security Act of 1935' (PhD diss., and bankruptcy legislation, 37 election results, 17 and entrepreneurship,179 and 401(k)s, 120, 123 and HSAB, 36 and Medicaid cuts, 161 and private retirement plans, 57-58 and Social Security, 39, 177 and unemployment insurance, 84 Butler, Stuart, 55, 120-21, 130, 131 California, 159, 161, 184 'Call It the Family Risk Factor' (Hacker), 1 Cantril, Hadley, 178 capitalism, 20, 41, 45-46, 176-77, 193 Cappelli, Peter, 67 career changes, 61. 52 domestic economy, 6 domestic workers, 40 Dorsett, Arnold, 137, 139, 165 Dorsett, Sharon, 137, 139, 165 Dorsett, Zachary, 137, 139, 165 Dow Jones Industrial Average, 121 downsizing, 68, 69 drug benefits, 157 dynamism economy, 66 early retirement, 73, 115-16 Eastman Kodak, 45-46 e-commerce, 76 economic growth dynamism economy, 66 and efficiency, 48-51, 51-52 and income volatility, 30 and insecurity, 7, 20, 33, 192 national income and wealth, 15 press coverage of, 16 and recovery, 5 and risk, 18-19 Economic Security Act (1935), 40, 41112 Economist, 24 education costs, 4, 71, 74-75, 93 and credit/debt, 71, 75, 173 financing, 74-75, 113 and gender, 74 and income volatility, 27-29,28 and inequality, 64, 74 investing for, 98 and job security, 62-63 personal responsibility for, 59 quality of, 233n. 53 Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), 117, 120,147 employers. 53 Gentry, Stephen, 77 geographic issues, 7, 78 Germany, 32 Gilder, George, 53 Gingrich, Newt, 150-51,159 Glassman, James K., 52-53,57 Global Crossing, 124 global economy, 6, 63-64 242 INDEX Golden Rule Insurance, 151 governors of states, 161 Grace, Joyce, 93, 100 Grace, Peter, 93, 100 Great Britain, 24, 184 Great Depression contemporary comparisons to, 63,168 and debt, 94 and social insurance, 5-6 and Social Security, 42-43, 116 17,144-45 and unemployment, 69-70 Great Society, 146 guaranteed income, 123 Hatch, Orrin, 96 health care. preventive medicine, 159-60, 189-90 quality of, 37 and social activism, 144-46 health insurance and the AMA, 40-41 and Blue Cross, 145 cost of, 76 and employers, 139 and family finances, 95 HSAs, 35 and ideological shifts, xvi and large companies, 116 and limited coverage, 76 and market failures, 141-44 and Medicare Plus, 187-91 origin of Blue Cross, 145 and out-of-pocket expenses, 4 and the 'postindustrial revolu tion,' 80 and risk and risk pooling, 145, 146,150,151-52,158-59 and uninsured population, 13-14 Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), 35-37,38,59-60,113,140, 151-54 Health Security Act (1993), 148 hedging, 169 Heier, Craig, 76, 84 Heier, Karen, 76 Heritage Foundation, 55, 84, 121 Herrara, Mark, 14, 22, 24 Hippocrates, 180 home ownership, 13, 33, 34. See also specific pro grams and forms of insurance and adverse selection, 143-44, 152, 181, 187 attacks on,46-51,57-60 and capitalism, 58 `crowd out' effect, 161 and the 'death spiral,' 144, 152 and employers, 147 and ideology, xvi, 41, 55, 58, 84 and insecurity, 140 and limited coverage, 76 and lobbying efforts, 40 long-term care, 174-75 and market economics, 55, 58, 181 and medical expenses, 138, 139, 140 and moral hazard, 47-51, 51-52, 58,151 parallel systems, 55-56 portable insurance, 181-82 and the private sector, 40111, 46-51,55 rates and premiums, 37, 139, 143,155-59,175 and risk pooling, 41-42, 145, 146-47,150,152,158-59, 174-75 244 INDEX insurance (continued) 'security and opportunity society,' xvii-xviii, 9, 167 self insurance, 147 social insurance, 6, 41112, 49, 166 Social Security as, 132 subsidies for, 43, 44, 49, 55, 56 58 supplemental, 155 uninsured population, xvi, 13 14,138-39,141 vs. relief, 42 interest groups, 148 interest rates, 172-73 investing. See pharmaceu ticals President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security, 133 preventive medicine, 160, 190 privatization and the private sector corporate restructuring of, 53 and families, 182 health plans, 146-47 and the insurance industry, 40 41,46-51,55 and Medicare, 46-47, 156-58 and Medicare Plus, 189 private accounts, 131-33, 179-80 and Social Security, 37, 39, 128 34,151,177 and tax subsidies, 43, 49, 54-55, 56-58 procrastination, 115 progressive income tax, 180 The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit o/' Capitalism (Weber), 83 PSID. 24 and medical expenses, 142 and Medicare, 163 and the 'ownership society,' 179-80 and presidential approval ratings, 17-18 and Social Security, 129-30, 227-28n.53 See pensions and retirement 'Retirement Risk Index,' 122 retraining, 76-79,183 Richter, Jimmy, 72 248 INDEX risk and risk pooling awareness of, 168-69, 175-79 and capitalism, 176-77 and children, 101 and choice, 59-60, 74-75, 107-8 and corporations, 193 and credit, 71, 173 and economic growth, 18-27 and educational choices, 74-75, 78-79, 98, 99, 173 and employers, 7-8, 65 and families, 8, 90-93, 97-98 and health insurance, 145, 146 47,150,152,158-59 and housing, 97-98, 99 and ideology, 180-81, 193-94 and insecurity, 19, 27, 29, 31, 165-68,168-69 and loss aversion, 25, 26-27, 30, 170 and medical risks, 60 and moral hazard, 48-49 and pensions/retirement, 112-13, 114-15,121,124-28,129-30, 132-35 and private management, 54-55, 56 and public opinion, 162-63 and the 'risk bind,' 90, 93 and social insurance, 41-42 and societal risks, 20 and specific investments, 78-79 and the stock market, 19 and types of insurance, 174-75 and workers, 67-68,182-85 Rooney, Patrick, 151 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 5, 40 41,43,144-45 Rove, Karl, 39 'rule of rescue,' 142 Samuelson, Robert, 17,96 Sandwich Generation, 103 Saracini, Ellen, 109-10 Saracini, Victor J., 109, 111 savings and borrowing, 173 and the expectations problem, 116 and families, 95 and 401(k)s, 122-23 and retirement, 170-72 and Social Security, 227n. See Survey of Income and Program Participation skilled workers, 64-65, 74 Smith, Adam, 50 social insurance, 6, 41112, 49, 166 social mobility, 24-27 social policy, 56 social responsibility, 38 social safety net, 3 Social Security cost of, 234n. Universal Savings Accounts, 185 unpaid leave, 89-90, 101 urbanization, 80 U.S. Census Bureau, 22 U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 46-51 U.S. Congress and family leave, 183-84 and 401(k)s, 118, 120 and the Health Security Act, 148 and the insurance lobby, 40 and Medicare, 156-57 and the New Deal, 144-45 and private insurance, 150 and unemployment benefits, 84 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 101 U.S. Department of the Treasury, 35 U.S. House of Representatives, 120, 156-57,184 U.S. Senate, 40 US Airways, 110 USA Today, 77 voting, 17-18, 56 wages. See also business-as Evans, Donald, 1 usual fossil fuel use extinctions and aerosol cooling effect, 98-99, climate change and, 144-51 99f ongoing fossil fuels use and, 239 carbon dioxide from, xv, 2, 118-19, Exxon/Mobil, 23,130 119f, 121, 123 and climate change, ix 'faint sun' paradox, 227f, 228 conservation of, as strategy, 172, Falcon, Andrew, 96 180-81 Faustian bargain, fossil fuels as, 97f, cost of, 188, 208 /See also carbon 98 tax; fee-and-dividend plan/ Fay, Kevin, 15 dependence on federal lands, fossil fuel extraction and national security, 3 from, 32 time required to reduce, 19, 73 fee-and-dividend plan, 209-11 emissions advantages of, 213-16 annual, by nation, 189, 189f consequences of not implementing, cumulative, by nation, 177f, 178, 220 189-90,189f and developing nations, 221, 222 by fuel type, 182f impact of, 210-11 total to date, 173, 174f as key to climate change solution, full burning of, 75, 122, 123, 162, 219-22,269 164,234-36 practicality of, 218, 220-22 and glacial-interglacial climate special interests and, 219 changes, 49 feedback loops phasing out climate sensitivity with, 42-45 energy efficiency and, 190-91 climate sensitivity without, 41-42 governments' failure to pursue, and climate tipping point, ix 185 greenhouse gases and, 38, 49, 73-74 necessity of, 172, 184 ice and snow melting and, 42, 44, power source alternatives, 50,73-74 193-204 interaction with inertial forces, renewable energy and, 191-92 73-74 strategy for, 205 politician's lack of interest in, reserves, 173, 174f, 184f, 185 43-44 subsidies, removing, 191 294 fossil fuel(s) (continued) unconventional necessity of banning, 173, 185, 187, 205,236 ongoing use of, 184, 224, 249, 276 U.S. commitment to, 32, 179, 186, 188, 190, 224 fossil fuel industry commitment to fossil fuels, 75 influence of, 187 fossil record, extinctions recorded in, 148 fresh water coal mining and, 177 mountain glaciers as source of, 165 Fr6hlich, Claus, 7 fuel-efficiency requirements, 207 Fukuda, Yasuo, 181, 186-87 Fung, Inez, 68 future, sustainable, possibility of, 239 GS Environmental Futures Forum (2001),28 Gabriel, Sigmar, 180-81 galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), and solar energy levels, 105 gas ceasing to use, impracticality of, 176 emissions to date, 174f reserves, 173, 174f, 184f, 185 gas absorption spectrum, in identifi cation of atmospheric gases, 62f, 63-64 geo-engineering, to shield solar radia tion, 230-31 Gephardt, Dick, 186, 213 Germany coal emissions, efforts to eliminate, 179-81 fossil fuel emissions, 177f, 189f fossil fuels use, 179, 188-89, 191-92 Kyoto Protocol and, 206 'Getting Serious About Global Warming' (Lindzen), 56-57 Gibson, Larry, 248-49 glacial-interglacial climate changes and atmospheric carbon dioxide, 118 causative factors, natural, 45-48, 71 human climate forcings and, 49-50 INDEX Global 2000 Report, 40 global dimming, 9 global warming. See American Clean Energy and Security Act weather, global warming and, ix, xv-xvi, 252-58 weathering of rocks, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, 159-60 Weiler, Ed, 126 West Antarctic ice sheet, melting of, 83-84,86,165,255-56 inevitability of, 274 and sea level, 252 as tipping point indicator, 276 'What Determines 'Dangerous An thropogenicInterference'?' (Hansen), 78 Whitman, Christine Todd, 1, 3, 30-31 Willis, josh, 101 Wilson, E. O., 239 wind power, 189, 193, 245 Wirth, Tim, xv witness, Hansen as, x, xii-xiii, 91-92 women's rights, and fertility rates, 221 World Energy Council, 173 World Trade Organization, carbon tax and, 220 World Wildlife Fund, 203 young people activism, need for, 239-40, 241-42, 243,277 and Obama victory, 242-43 Zachos, Jim, 153, 233-34, 235 Zeebe, Richard, 233-34, 235 Zink, John, xiii Zwally, Jay, 86 A Note on the Author


Dr. James Hansen is perhaps best known for bringing global warm ing to the world's attention in the 1980s, when he first testified be fore Congress. In terms of molding in China, 'I'm worried 73 THE WAL-MART EFFECT about the security of the product.' 'When your turn comes, they put you through security, just like at THE WAL-MART EFFECT the airport,' says Wier. Those two villas were large as well and served as housing for some of our father's many employees, mainly administrators, drivers, or security guards, with most of the men former Mujahideen veterans of the Russian-Afghan war. Many of the hardened soldiers became our father's security guards, zeal- Irj ously protecting him and his family. We were both carrying the customary Kalashnikov weap ons across our shoulders, even though we were encircled by heavy security, with guards standing shoulder-to-shoulder until we were safely inside an SUV with blackened windows. A foreign minister who attended a Global Security Review conference in Geneva recently summed up Obama's sermo nizing as 'pointless rhetoric, no matter how elegantly expressed.' In contrast, the Obama administration has hit the ground grasping for (in the fashion of the frantic diplomacy during the last days of both the Clinton and Bush administrations) the diplomatic coup that will magically end con- flict in the region and provide an array of added dividends: oil security; a decrease in international Arab terrorism; better relations with the half-billion people in the Mideast; and closer diplomatic ties to a Europe in creasingly busy with anti-Israel agendas. Such apprehension is not paranoia: Zbigniew Brze zinski,Jimmy Carter's national security adviser and a foreign-policy adviser to the 2008 Obama campaign, recently said that the United States in the current climate might well shoot down any Israeli jets on their way to Iran as they passed near American planes in Iraq. Instead, it now boasts that its newfound nuclear capability will serve its own security needs as it sees fit. Its mission is to assess the national security risks posed to the United States by widening desertification; rising sea levels; population shifts and increasing competition for food, land, fresh water, and other natural resources of growing scarcity around the
9 CHAPTER ONE A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER world; and to better evaluate 'the effect environmental factors can have on political, economic and social sta bility overseas,' the CIA stated in a September 25 press release. The son of a Texas oilman, and a man who once started an oil company himself, Bush un derstood as well as anyone alive what that kind of over dependence meant for our diplomacy, our economy, and our national security. 'There's no disagreement over whether our dependence on foreign oil is endangering our security. After a 35-year career stretching from the Vietnam War to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Gunn retired from the Navy to become president of the American Security Project, a nonprofit public policy group with 76 CHAPTER SIX A NATION CONFIDENT a focus on emerging strategic challenges.
Asis, Indira, Priyanka, and Piyali Banerjie INDIA

When I go through the American security system, going abroad to China, the lady knows: she's looking at my American passport. But she also knew Munr was absorbing something important in her par ents' home, something that went beyond security and affection. Pablo thought he was headed for Vietnam, but several foreign na tionals in U.S. ranks had defected to the enemy and the command ers decreed that no noncitizen could enter the war zone without top 219 220 STEVEN V. ROBERTS security clearance. When he got out he 288 wanted to travel, but his family was 'pretty poor' so he found work as a security guard along the Egyptian border: 'We were licensed to kill; we had permission, seriously.' One of my husband's biggest complaints is that I'm way too independent! ' Since Deeba lives in Minnesota, she flies regularly to California and resents the treatment she gets in airports from security personnel: 'In all the trips I've made over the last four years, only once have I not been pulled aside.' Key to understanding how John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson took the nation into Vietnam is the story of McGeorge Bundy's service to both men as national security adviser. Thanks to his many long and penetrating talks with Bundy, his assiduous study of the written record, and his mastery of the interplay among personality, politics, and national security strategy, Gordon Goldstein has brought us a dispassionate, power ful, and brilliant assessment of McGeorge Bundy's performance during the years he was given his cardinal moment in history. Originally published in hardcover in 2008 by Times Books First Holt Paperbacks Edition 2009 Designed by Meryl Sussman Levavi Printed in the United States of America 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 For Anne Ashby Gilbert, whose support and solidarity made this book possible, and for whom I have more gratitude than words can express The Kennedy and Johnson Administrations, 1961-65 xi INTRODUCTION Legend of the Establishment 1 LESSON ONE Counselors Advise but Presidents Decide 27 LESSON TWO Never Trust the Bureaucracy to Get It Right 69 LESSON THREE Politics Is the Enemy of Strategy 97 LESSON FOUR Conviction Without Rigor Is a Strategy for Disaster 144 LESSON FIVE Never Deploy Military Means in Pursuit of Indeterminate Ends 186 LESSON SIX Intervention Is a Presidential Choice, Not an Inevitability 229 Notes 249 Acknowledgments 285 Index 289 s THE KENNEDY IND JOHNSON ADMINISTRITIONS, 1961-65 John F Kennedy, president of the United States (1961-63) Lyndon B. Johnson, vice president of the United States (1961-63); president of the United States (1963-69) McGeorge Bundy, national security adviser (1961-66) Theodore Sorensen, special counsel and adviser to President Kennedy (1961-63) Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., assistant to President Kennedy (1961-63) Bill Mayers, assistant and press secretary to President Johnson (1963-67) Douglass Cater, special assistant to President Johnson (1964-68) Walt W Rostow, deputy national security adviser (1961) Michael V Forrestal, staff member, National Security Council (1962-64) THE KENNEDY AND JOHNSON ADMINISTRATIONS, 1961-65 THE KENNEDY AND JOHNSON ADMINISTRATIONS, 1961-65 Chester L. Cooper, staff member, National Security Council (1964-66) James C. Thomson Jr., staff member, National Security Council (1964-66) William Bundy, assistant secretary of defense (1962-64) John McNaughton, assistant secretary of defense (1964-67) DEPARTMENT OF STATE MILITARY OFFICERS Dean Rusk, secretary of state (1961-69) George Ball, undersecretary of state (1961-66) W Averell Harriman, ambassador at large (1961); assistant secretary of state for Far Eastern affairs (1961-63); undersecretary of state for political affairs (1963-65) Lyman Lenmitzer, chairman, joint Chiefs of Staff (1960-62) Maxwell Taylor, military representative to the president (1961-62); chairman, joint Chiefs of Staff (1962-64) Earle G. Wheeler, chairman, joint Chiefs of Staff (1964-70) Arleigh Burke, chief of naval operations (1955-61) Roger Hilsnum, director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research (1961 63); assistant secretary of state for Far Eastern affairs (1963-64) Paul D. Harkins, commanding general, Military Assistance Command, Vietnam (1962-64) William Bundy, assistant secretary of state for Far Eastern affairs (1964-69) U. Alexis Johnson, deputy undersecretary of state (1961-64, 1965-66) Walt W Rostow, chairman, Policy Planning Council (1961-66) Thomas L. Hughes, director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research (1963-69) Frederick Nolting, U.S. ambassador to South Vietnam (1961-63) Henry Cabot Lodge, U.S. ambassador to South Vietnam (1963-64, 1965-67) Maxwell Taylor, U.S. ambassador to South Vietnam (1964-65) John Kenneth Galbraith, U.S. ambassador to India (1961-63) DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Robert S. McNamara, secretary of defense (1961-68) Roswell L. Gilpatric, deputy secretary of defense (1961-64) Cyrus Vance, deputy secretary of defense (1964-67) William Westmoreland, commanding general, Military Assistance Command, Vietnam (1964-68) CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Allen Dulles, director of central intelligence (1953-61) John McCone, director of central intelligence (1961-65) Richard Bissell, deputy director, Central Intelligence Agency (1961-62) Ray Cline, deputy director, Central Intelligence Agency (1962-66) OTHER OFFICIALS Robert F Kennedy, attorney general (1961-64) Mike Mansfield, U.S. senator from Montana; Senate majority leader J. William Fulbright, U.S. senator from Arkansas; chairman, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Richard Russell, U.S. senator from Georgia; chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee xlssxsia xi sxossa2 I N T ROD U C T I O N LEGEND OF THE ESTABLISHMENT T he last time I saw McGeorge Bundy was on Wednesday, Septem ber 11, 1996. In the spring of 1995 Bundy asked me to collaborate with him on a retrospective analysis of the American presidency and the Vietnam War during his tenure as national security adviser to Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson. 'Why did presidential loyalty require Bundy to continue to defend the war long after he left gov ernment in 1966? And why, when in 1969-70 it was clear that Kissinger and Nixon were prolonging the war, did both brothers fail to come out forcefully against the war and the Vietnamization policies that were pro longing it? The Bundys never answered these hard questions:' 4 Bird's sharpest criticism was directed not at Bundys performance as national security adviser, but at his silence after leaving office: 'Far from protesting 4 LEGEND OF THE ESTABLISHMENT the carnage, Mac quietly left the White House and continued to support the war in public.... This was [his] worst and most personal mistake, a failure of courage and imagination:' There were, of course, countless other verdicts and views on Bundy's legacy as national security adviser in the Vietnam era. His loyalty was to the President and to our nation's security.' In the chapters to come, I have attempted to distill what I believe are the pivotal lessons of Bundy's performance as 23 LESSONS IN DISASTER national security adviser with respect to the vital question of American strategy in Vietnam. Kennedy confided to John Kenneth Galbraith that he had also considered offering the position of national security adviser to Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.' Looking back, Bundy said he was fortunate that the State Department job Kennedy origi nally offered him did not exist and that Nitze had declined the White House position. How probable was it that the exiles could stimulate a wider national revolt? How large would an uprising need to be to over whelm Castro's state security forces? If the invasion failed to stimulate a popular revolt, how long and how effectively could a force of 1,300 Cuban exile soldiers fight Castro's much larger army? Was there any real evidence to support Bissell's claim that the exile force could sustain itself indefi nitely? What were the military risks and potential contingencies associated with the invasion, including the potential need for American air support? In light of the rumors and the media reports, had operational security 36 37 LESSONS IN DISASTER COUNSELORS ADVISE BUT PRESIDENTS DECIDE already been fatally compromised? The documentary record does not re flect any effort by Bundy to evaluate and mitigate these concerns. It reported that in response to new advances by the communist Pathet Lao insurgency in Laos, the Pacific Command was instructed to prepare for potential air strikes against North Vietnam and perhaps southern China's 45 LESSONS IN DISASTER In a turbid meeting of the National Security Council the following day, Admiral Burke sat in for the chairman of the joint Chiefs of Staff. 'Pentagon plans for this area stress the importance of counter ing Communist guerrillas with troops from the affected countries, perhaps trained and equipped by the U.S., but not supplanted by U.S. troops' 99 On October 16 the U.S. ambassador in Saigon, Frederick Nolting, re ported that President Diem had requested a bilateral security treaty with B7 LESSONS IN DISASTER COUNSELORS ADVISE BUT PRESIDENTS DECIDE the United States 'and secondly and perhaps alternatively for the dispatch of US combat forces: '°° By October 18, however, Diem had reversed him self, indicating that he would not seek U.S. combat troops after all.'°' Bundy, who as national security adviser was 73 LESSONS IN DISASTER NEVER TRUST THE BUREAUCRACY TO GET IT RIGHT ostensibly the coordinating force behind the ExComm, said it was too early to lock into one option. But later that day Bundy amended this con clusion, citing a conversation that afternoon with Mike Forrestal-who once again appeared to be closer to the president on the question of Viet nam than his boss-that prompted the national security adviser to con cede 'that I may not have been right.' The draft directive also included a presidential rebuke for the conspicuously muddled performance of the national security bureaucracy and its internecine squabbling surround ing the Diem coup. Neither did Bundy seem to hold himself 93 LESSONS IN DISASTER particularly responsible for the coordination and performance of the na tional security bureaucracy that initiated the coup. He used this quip often, seemingly untroubled by the appearance of the former national security adviser shrugging off a pivotal breakdown in the bureaucracy that cul minated in the murder of two leaders of an American proxy regime. Robert Kennedy placed some of the blame on the national security adviser. 'The most important program, 95 LESSONS IN DISASTER of course, is our national security, but I don't want the United States to have to put troops there.' Bundy conceded-with considerable understatement-that 'there were differences of a somewhat cultural sort' between the new president and his national security adviser. The American attack would be quickly followed by an 'active diplomatic offensive in the Security Council, or in a Geneva Conference, or both, aimed at restoring the peace throughout the area. 'He was dismantling the tapes '49 Bundy ushered Johnson to the White House basement, where he for tuitously found John McCone, 'and , we put it out' that the president had come for a national security briefing. Johnson then descended to the national security adviser's office in the White House basement, which was itself 'most unusual,' Bundy remembered.' 'What I fear most of all in this juncture,' he wrote to Bundy, 'would be our move onto a policy track in Vietnam that could cripple the new administration and tarnish its bright promise:' As recounted by Bundy's biographer Kai Bird, the national security adviser invited Thomson to his office'for a private meeting in early De cember 1964. James Thomson, a thirty-three-year-old China expert Bundy had recruited to his National Security Council staff, was also preoccupied with the risks in expanding the war. The President certainly shares your view that military 159 LESSONS IN DISASTER security should be as effective as possible within the limits of our basic pol icy decision not to deploy large American combat units for guard duty in Vietnam.' 193 LESSONS IN DISASTER Thus the national security adviser had boxed in the president and ele vated the Vietnam debate into a national media event. 219 LESSONS IN DISASTER one of the consistent themes of Bundy's Vietnam counsel as na tional security adviser was his support for military action uncorrelated to concrete military outcomes. Thus both the president and his national security adviser achieved what was paramount to them in the summer of 1965. Telegram from the Central Intelligence Agency Station in Saigon to the Director of the National Security Agency, November 1, 1963, 2:34 p.m., in FRUS 1961-63, vol. Memorandum from the President's Special Assistant for National Security Affairs to President Johnson, June 30,1965, in FRUS 1964--68, vol. 288 A Acheson, Dean, 6,7,12,35,73-74,104-5 Algeria, 196 Alsop, Joseph, 199 Alter, Jonathan, 21 American Military Assistance Advisory Group (Saigon), 54 America's Longest War (Herring), 145 Ap Bac, battle of, 72 Arbenz GuzmAn, Jacobo, 36 atomic bomb, 9 Auchindoss, Laurie (sister), 148 Australia, 190 B Ball, George, 25,61-62,81,103,106,115, 122,130-32,136,141,160-61, 172-73,178,184,189-90,192,203-6, 208,210-15 Bao Dai, 51 Barrett, David, 5 Bartlett, Charles, 237 Bator, Francis, 5, 17, 155-56 Bay of Pigs invasion, 35-44,46,48, 55, 66, 81,96,148-49,215,241 Bennett, Harold G.,190 Berle, Adolf, 43 Berlin, 47-48, 63, 68 Berman, Larry, 5,226-27 Best and the Brightest, The (Halberstam), 147-49 Betts, Richard, 68 Bien Hoa-Vung Tau area, 171 Bird, Kai, 4, 8,17, 142 Bissell, Richard, 27,36-40,42-43 Black Operations, 27 Blight, James, 29, 67,149, 231 Board of National Estimates, 139 Bohlen, Charles, 111 Bosch,Juan, 175 INDEX Boston City Council, 9 Bowles, Chester, 32 Brewster, Kingman, 16,33 Brewster, Mary Louise, 33 Brooks, Jack, 101 Brown, Georganne, 3 Bmezinski, Zbigniew, 13 Buddhist crisis of 1963, 75-76 Bundy, Harriet (sister), 7 Bundy, Harvey, Jr. (brother), 7 Bundy, Harvey Hollister, Sr. (father), 6,9 Bundy, Katherine Lawrence Putnam (mother), 6-7 Bundy, Mary Buckminster Lothrop (wife), 11,17,23,72,74,147-48,195,197 Bundy, McGeorge Americanization of war and, 166-73, 176-85 analysis by, of debate leading to attrition strategy, 217-28 appointed national security adviser by JFK,32-35 attrition strategy and, 186-90, 192-93, 201-3 Ball memo and, 130-32,136 Bay of Pigs and, 3514 bombing and, under LBJ, 143,150-53, 156-64,174-76,220-21 Buddhist crisis and, 76 bureaucratic process in presidential decisions and, 70.71 See also Vietnam War attrition strategy and, 168,173, 179-81, 191,209,222,224 bombing of, 18,45,47,108-9,127, 140-43,152,155-57,174 creation of, 50 development program proposed for, by LBJ,170 JFK and, 55-56,60-61, 65,236 LBJ assumption of presidency and, 108-9,114 LBJ presidential campaign of 1964 and, 129-30 response to LBJ bombing and, 174 Tonkin Gulf incident and, 18,123-27 use of nuclear weapons against, 203 North Vietnamese army, 174,179, 186,225 Nosovan, Phoumi, 45 NSC-68 (1950), 34 nuclear weapons, 19,47,75,108-9,113, 161,203,223 O O'Donnell,Kenneth, 104,235,237-38 Okinawa, 47 On Active Service in Peace and War (Stimson and Bundy),10 Ormsby-Gore, David, 61 Our Vietnam (Langguth), 146 Overlord, Operation, 10 299 P Pacific Command, 45 Palmer, Bruce, Jr., 226 'paper tiger' concept, 167,183,212-13,221 Paris peace talks, 181 Father Lao, 45,47 Pattern ofResponsibility, The (Bundy), 12 Peabody, Endicott, 7 Pentagon Papers, 17,54-55,189,208 Phan Huy Quat, 174 Philippines, 110, 190 Plan 34-A,121-23 Pleiku attack of 1965, 155-57,159, 162 Powers, Dave, 40 presidential election of 1960,31 Of 1964,97-99,105,109-10,116,120--21, 129-36,137,233-34,237 Presidential Task Force on Vietnam, 53 Preston, Andrew, 5 Posey,Nathan, 13,146,216-17 R Ranger, USS, 156 Republican Party, 9-11, 35, 131, 241 Riesman, David, 13, 35 Rolling Thunder, Operation, 163 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 7, 9, 16, 199 Rostow, Walt W., 25,38-39,55-57,61, 65-66,217,230,234 Rusk, Dean, 25,27 Bay of Pigs and, 39, 43, 81 JTK's Vietnam policy and, 32, 34, 55, 60-62,64,66,71,78,81,89 LBJ's early presidency and, 103-6, 111, 114,141 LBJ's Vietnam policy and, 131-32, 150, 161, 164, 169, 171, 173,177, 184, 190, 205-7,210-11,214 Tonkin Gulf and, 122-24,128 Russell, Richard, 109, 112, 177, 212, 215 S Saigon officers' billet bombing, 150 Scheer, Robert, 22 Schell,Jonathan, 240-41 INDEX 297 Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr., 6, 14, 34, 37-38,40-41,43,46-47,63,101-2 Sevareid,Eric, 194 Shakespeare, William, 92-93 Sheehan, Neil, 5 Shriver, Sargent, 32 SIGMA I and II war game,, 141-43, 156, 181 Signal Corps, 9 Sihanouk, Norodom, 239 Skull and Bones society, 6, 8-9 Sorensen,Theodore, 34,46,66,74,92, 102-3 Souphanouvong,45 Southeast Asia, regional security of, 45-48, 51-53,60-61 Southeast Asia Task Force, 57 Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), 46, 55, 57, 114,214 Southern Democrats, 120 South Korea, 110, 212 South Vietnam. (Ball memo), 130-32 Hue protests of 1963, 75-76 Hughes, Thomas L., 80,122-24 Humphrey, Hubert, 120,162 Hunt, E. Howard, 36 Huynh, Nguyen Khac, 181 293 INDEX I la Drang Valley, battle of, 225-26 India, 190 Indonesia, 60,139,222-23 In Retrospect (McNamara), 19-22, 25, 64 Isaacson, Walter, 4 1 Japan, 110 Javers, Ron, 18-19 Johnson, Alexis, 57,235 Johnson, Harold K.,164-65 Johnson, Lady Bird, 197 Johnson, Lyndon B, 2 advisers and, vs. JFK, 241 air strikes vs. North and, 143, 150-51, 156-59,161,174,181-82 Americanization of war and advice received by, 178-85 appoints successor to Lodge, 117 assumes presidency, 101-10 attrition strategy and, 187-93, 201-16 Ball memo on escalation vs. negotiation options and, 130-32 Bay of Pigs and, 39 Bundy as spokesman for Vietnam policy of, 14-18 Bundy recommends enlarged military commitment to, 128-29 Bundy resignation and, 193-201, 217 combat troop deployment and, 150-52, 163-78,181-85,232,240 decision of, to escalate war, 29,160-62 direct talks with Hanoi and, 170 elections of 1964 and Vietnam decisions of, 129-38 election victory of 1964 and, 97-98, 131-32 escalation debate of 1965 and, 218-28 failure of, to explain Vietnam policy to public, 170, 192-94, 197-200, 234 INDEX Johnson, Lyndon (continued) failure of, to explore diplomatic options, 137-40 'Fork in the Road' memo and, 152-54 Halberstam on, 149 JFK's Vietnam decisions and, 3, 30-31, 46,57,62,228 Johns Hopkins speech of 1965 and, 169-70 media and, 198-200 National Rural Electric Cooperation Association speech of 1965, 206-7 neutralization pressures and, 109-13, 115-16 presidential memoir by, 25 pressures on, to escalate in 1964,113-16 relationship of, with Bundy, 100-101 RFK and, 117-21 Tonkin Guff and, 99,109,116-17,121-29, 133-35 as vice president, 100-101 vice presidential pick of 1964 and, 119-21,136 Vietnam critics and, 175 Vietnam strategy of, vs. JFK,176, 231 Joint Chiefs of Staff, 39, 4216, 54-55, 57, 60-61,66,74,89,107-9,122,133, 141-42,149,191,219,226,235 K Karnow, Stanley, 5 Kaysen, Carl, 17 Kerman,George, 105 Kennedy, Jacqueline, 61,103-4,117,119 Kennedy, John E, 2-3,27,206,218 appoints Bundy as national security adviser, 14-15,32-35 assassination of, 92-93,99,101,103-4, 229 authority of, over deployment of force, 44 avoids being captive to advisers on Vietnam, 63-68 Bay of Pigs and, 35-44,46,47,55,241 Bundy and, 145,220 Cold War and, 31-32 Cuban missile crisis and, 72-75 Diem coup and, 77-81,84-86,88-95, 103,132-33 , early decisions of, about Vietnam, 29-30 early friendship with Bundy, 6,14 election of, 31-32 escalation of war and, 29 final months of presidency of, 71-72 Forrestal and, 77 Halberstam on, 148-49 inaugural address of, 31 Laosand,44-48 LBJ as vice president of, 100-101 LBJ emerges from shadow of, 131 LBJ's Vietnam strategy vs., 3, 135, 138, 228 management of bureaucracy and, 71 media and, 199 no-combat troops in Vietnam policy of, 30-31,51-65,67-68,95-96,222,233, 240 no-combat troops policy of, reversed by LBJ, 169, 178, 184 papers and tapes of, 117-18 possible Vietnam strategy of, if he had lived, 229-42 Seattle address of 1961 and pragmatic realism of, 65-66 Taylor as military adviser to, 55-56 transition to LBJ presidency after death of,98-104,117-18 Vietnam directive of November 1963, 91-92 Vietnam elections of 1956 and, 51 withdrawal date for Vietnam set by, 81-84,91-92,233 Kennedy, Robert E, 46, 65, 73, 85, 86, 89, 94,99,104,117-21,136,230,235,238 294 Kent, Sherman,139-40 Kerry, John E, 9 Khanh,Nguyen,80,108-9,128, 154-55 Khiem, Tran Thien, 80 Kirk, Alan G., 9-10 Kissinger, Henry, 4, 13, 25 Kohler, Foy, 174 Korean War, 11, 48, 65, 109-10, 113, 129, 137-38,140-41,161-62,164,203, 212 Kraft, Joseph, 14-15 Krock, Arthur, 235-36 Krulak, Victor, 78, 106 Ky, Nguyen Cao, 174 L Lang, Janet, 29 Langguth, A. J., 77,146 Lansdale, Edward, 52,54-55 Laos, 50, 155, 195, 220 JFK and, 44-48,55-57,62,65-66,68, 230,236,239-41 LBJand, 98,110,114,128-29,139-40 Lattre de Tassigny, Jean de, 51 League for Vietnamese Independence, 49. 59, 72, 82-84,86,140,176,182,188,189, 196,202,203-4,232 South Vietnamese army (Army of the Republic of Vietnam, ARVN), 86 South Vietnamese Joint General Staff, 87 South Vietnamese National Assembly, 72 South Vietnamese police, 72 South Vietnamese press, 72 South Vietnamese Special Forces, 72,76 South Vietnam Revolutionary Council, 106 Souvanna Phouma, 45 Soviet Union, 31, 48-49, 73-75,104-5,174 Special Group for Counterinsurgency, 77 State Department, 2, 29-30, 32-33, 43-44, 62,76-77,79-81,103-4,106,113, 122,128,143 Policy Planning Council study (1964), 140-41 Stevenson, Adlai,105 Stewart, Potter, 9 Stimson, Henry L., 6,9-11,17,35 strategic hamlet program, 105-6 structural forces school, 240-41 Suharto,223 Sullivan, William, 106 T Taft, William Howard, 8-9 Taiwan, 110,212 Talbot, David, 19, 38, 39 Taylor, Maxwell, 25, 55-61, 66, 74, 79, 81-85,88-89,91,124,150-52,154, 156,159,161,163-65,170-73, 175-77,234-35 teach-ins, 175,194 Thailand, 44,46-47,110,114, 190,212 Thich Quang Due (monk), 75-76 Thieu, Nguyen Van, 174 Thomson, James C., Jr, 5,16-19, 142-43 303 Committee, 121 Ticonderoga, USS, 122 Time, 4, 15 Tonkin Gulf incident, 99,121-29,133-35,142 resolution (1964),18,99,109,125-29, 133-34,153,189 Tran Quang Co, 181 Tran Van Don, 86-87 Trieu Au, 48 Truman, Harry S, 11, 34, 49, 77, 110, 136, 241 Trung sisters, 48 Turkey,75 U U-2 aerial surveillance system, 42 Ullman, Richard, 146 United Fruit Company, 36 United Nations, 105, 105,114,138 Security Council, l, 114 298 U.S. Agency for International Development, Diem and Buddhist crisis and, 76 U.S. Congress, 18,108-9,116,125-29, 131,133-35,137,189 U.S. Country Team Staff committee (interagency task force in Saigon), 52, 92, 106, 154 U.S. House of Representatives, 51, 128,131 U.S. Information Agency, 76 U.S. military forces First Air Cavalry, 225 173rd Airborne Brigade, 170 marines, 163-64,169,173,175 reserves, 209 Special Forces, 54, 157 U.S. Postal Pay Bill, 124 U.S. Senate, 20, 116,128,131 Armed Services Committee, 112,177 Foreign Relations Committee, 134 V Valenti, Jack, 215 Vance, Cyrus, 122, 124, 175, 208 VanDeMark, Brian, 5,173,204 'Very Expensive Education of McGeorge Bundy, The' (Halberstam), 146-47 Veterans Administration, 20 Viet Cong, 72,81,107,140,142,150-51, 157-58,165,168-69,173-74,176, 190, 192, 202, 205-6, 209, 236-39 Vietminh, 49-52 Vietnamization policy, 4 Vietnam Memorial, 69-70 Vietnam War. GOLDSTEIN is a scholar of international affairs who has served as an international security adviser to the Strategic Planning Unit of the Executive Office of the United Nations Secretary General and as a Wayland Fellow and guest lecturer at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University. 43 3 The Victor 65 4 Turkey 87 5 Cleaning Up the Mess 109 6 Nationalism and Nation Building 145 7 An Effective National Security Policy 167 A Note on Sources 187 Acknowledgments 191 Index 195 Contents SIDNlablsNOD GIGNIININn Introduction
G eorge W Bush launched and lost America's Iraq War. L. Paul (Jerry) Bremer III, the Bush appointee as head of the Coalition Provi sional Authority (CPA) for Iraq, moved quickly to abolish the old regime's repressive apparatus: the Iraqi Army, the security Introduction services, and the Baath party. Shiites believe the ayatollah was forced to watch as Baath security men raped and killed his sister. Among the powers the federal government does not have are taxation, control of natural resources, protection of human rights, and the actual conduct of national security (only national security policy is a federal responsibility). If Iraq's army and police are to re place the Americans as providers of security, they need to be neutral guarantors of public order, which in turn assumes that 36 Unintended Consequences the men in these security forces are somehow immune from the country's sectarian and ethnic divisions. In his second decree, Bremer dissolved the Iraqi Army and security services, making enemies of hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed, and well-armed, young men. When U.S. forces ousted Saddam's regime from the south in early April 2003, the Badr Organization in filtrated from Iran to fill the void left by the Bush administra tion's failure to plan for security and governance in postinvasion Iraq. The Iraq experience makes many countries reluctant to support meaningful sanctions not only because they doubt administra tion statements but because they are afraid President Bush will interpret any Security Council resolution condemning Iran as an authorization for war. 74 Unintended Consequences The Victor 75 From the perspective of U.S. national security strategy, the choice should be easy. This explanation ignores the inconvenient detail that the Bush administration never even thought about providing public security or protecting Iraqi public institutions, but infuriated the Turks who now found themselves blamed for the Bush administration's incompetence. The flaw with Bush's ambitions for Prioritize National Security Objectives 170 Unintended Consequences a democratic, unified, and stable Iraq is that it is not achievable with the troops that we have in the country, or any reasonable augmentation of them. Political campaigns poll every conceivable demographic subgroup-for example, soccer moms or security dads-and tailor messages aimed at winning that particular demographic. They are, however, so burdened by security regulations that they can rarely leave their compounds and are, for the most part, 178 Unintended Consequences ineffective. Suleimani is one,of the safest places in Iraq (I usually travel there just with a driver), and the Kurds had offered to provide security. The State Depart ment's office of diplomatic security, however, insisted on the same rules for all PRTs (regardless of danger) and applied the same rules to safe Kurdistan as to then very dangerous Anbar. Index

Abkhazia, 154 Abu Risha, Sheik Abdul-Sattar, 19 Afghanistan, 3, 6, 39, 77, 84, 89, 174, 178 Africa, 146, 147, 154-55 see also specific countries Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 7, 8, 9, 70, 75, 79 AK party (Turkey), 98, 99, 100, 101, 107 Alawites, 140-41 al-Qaeda, 3, 12, 47, 77-78, 80, 81, 110,121,153,167 Iraq and, 4, 5, 6, 16, 18, 19, 20, 24, 25, 44, 117, 122, 125, 129, 130,132-33 al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia (AQM), 17 Anbar Governorate, xi, 15, 16-20, 116,119,121,129-30 anti-Americanism, 2, 9-10, 76, 87, 88,90,107,109,180 Assad, Bashar al-, 7, 68, 139, 140, 141 'Axis of Evil,' 2, 3, 78, 80, 138, 183n Baathists, 1, 5, 6, 7, 16, 17, 21, 25, 26-27,28,35,36,39,47,48, 53-55,84,111,112,120,122, 133, 138, 140 Badr Organization (formerly Badr Corps), 7-8, 21, 36, 66, 117 Baghdad, 4-5, 15, 16, 18, 28, 29, 37,48-52,59,90,119,121 continued role of U.S. military in, 131-32 east-west/Shiite-Sunni split in, xi, 20,22-24,111,116,130,131, 134 Green Zone of, 20, 44, 57, 162 postwar U.S. strategy for, 116-17 Baker, James A., 138, 148-49 Baltic republics, 147-48, 149 Baluchistan, 151-52 Bangladesh, 147 Barzani, Massoud, 32-33, 37, 60, 101 Barmni, Nechirvan, 104, 106, 107 Barzani family, 118, 124 Basra, xi, 22, 36, 38, 115, 123 196 Index Bhutto, Benazir, 152 Iran and, 7-8, 69-71, 74-79, Biden,Joseph, 118-19 83-85 biological weapons, 70, 171 Iraq's post-invasion governing and, Blood and Belief (Marcus), 93n 5-6,10,21-22,27,48-49, Bosnia, 88,146-47,149,157, 52-63,66-67 158-59,160,161,165, nation building and, 147, 158, 175-76,178,180,183,184-85 Bremer, L. Paul (Jerry) III, 5-6, 21-22,27,28,53-57,61,66, 162 Burkle, Frederick, 57-58 Burma, 146, 152 Bush, George H. W, 69, 91, 148-49,185 Bush, George W, 2, 6, 8, 11, 21, 24, 31,39,44,122,136,138,139, 145,177,186 divided Iraq and, 39-40 freedom rhetoric and, 181-82 Georgia and, 154 international disdain held for, 9, 10, 12, 102, 167 Iran and, 65, 77, 81-84 Iraq's unity as goal of, 149-50 Iraq War launched and lost by, 1, 2,43-63 Israel and, 142, 143 national security issues and, 4, 110,167-70,185-86 Pakistan and, 3-4 postwar Iraq strategy and, 111-12, 119,121 as self-styled 'decider,' 5, 13, 48 Shiite power struggle and, 123 surge and, 15, 18-19, 28, 139 Turkey and, 88-89, 99, 101 Bush administration, 9, 23, 28-30, 33,37,38,126-27,137,139, 150,163,169,173,180 Arab-Israeli peace process ignored by, 144 159n, 160, 166 postwar Iraq strategy and, 119, 132-35 Turkey and, 87-89,101,106,107 unskilled people hired for Iraqi service by, 53-57, 165-66 and U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, 135-36 Bush v. Gore, 181-82 Cambodia, 156 Canada, 156-57 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 10,49-50,60,83,170-71, 172,173 Chalabi, Ahmad, 48, 59, 60-61, 62, 138 Chamberlain, Neville, 182-83 Chechnya,145,154,157-58 chemical weapons, 70, 78, 169, 171 Cheney, Dick, 30, 61, 69, 77 China, People's Republic of, 46, 157 Christians, xi, 47, 88, 116, 126, 127, 128n, 141, 146, 153, 154, 155 Clinton, Bill, 9, 44, 46, 88, 180, 181,185 Clinton, Hillary, 119 Clinton administration, 157, 184 Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA),5-6,21-22,27,53-62, 65,175 Congress, U.S., 2, 11, 26, 34, 37-38, 44, 58, 71, 82, 119, 135, 173, 174, 176, 182 Croatia, 146, 148-49, 157, 175, 178, 183, 184 Crocker, Ryan, 85, 132 Czechoslovakia, 147, 151, 179n, 183 Dawa, 21-22, 38, 60, 117, 122, 137 Dayton Peace Accords (1995), 146-47,175,184,185n Defense Department, U.S., 13, 15-16,49,51,54,69,89,158, 174,176 defense spending, 174, 176 democracy, 1, 5-7, 40, 43, 47, 66, 70,107,111,120,124,149, 181,185 Democratic Party, 2, 11, 44, 47, 58, 118, 135, 167 diplomats, diplomacy, 161-65, 174-79,182-84 Donnelly, Tom, 43-44 Eastern Europe, 6, 74, 88, 172 East Timor, 146, 158, 159-62, 163,164 elections, Iraqi: of 2005 (December), 35, 105, 127 of 2005 Uanuary), 26, 28-29, 32,35,39,60,127 of2008,30 elections, U.S.: of2000,52,181-82 of 2006, 2, 11, 44 of2008,2,118,135 Erbil,40-41,116,128,178 Erdogan, Recep Tayyip, 89, 90, 99, 100,101 Eritrea, 146, 155 Index Ethiopia, 146, 155 ethnic conflict, 146, 152-53, 160, 166 see also nationalism; secession movements European Union (EU), 96, 97, 107, 149,151 Evren, Kenan, 96,106 197 Ganji, Akbar, 74 Garner, Jay, 52-53, 59 Gates, Robert, 16,19 Georgia, 145, 154 Germany, 147, 173, 183 Great Britain, 147, 160 Green Line, xi, 126 Grozny,154 Guatttinamo, 181 'Guards of the Region,' 133 Gill, Abdullah, 100, 101 Guldimann, Tim, 77-78 Gulf War, First, 77, 91, 138 Fadhila, 36, 115 Feith, Douglas J., 49-50, 51, 54, 59, 61,90 Franks, Tommy, 51 Hague, 'Ihe, 142, 157 Hakim, Abdul Aziz al-, 27-28, 32-33 Hamas, 8, 78, 143, 144 Hariri, Rafik, 7, 68, 140, 142 Hezbollah, 8, 68, 143 Hitler, Adolf, 182-83 Holbrooke, Richard, 175-76, 184 Holocaust, 9 House of Representatives, U.S., 11, 58 Huggins, Jim, 24, 25 198 Index India, 147, 152-53, 170-71 Indonesia, 146, 153-54, 158, 159-61 intelligence, 2, 10, 13, 16, 81-83, 170-71,173 see also Central Intelligence Agency International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 3, 70, 75 Iran, sit 6, 7, 17, 21, 25, 39, 43, 124, 137, 138, 139, 145, 167 in Axis of Evil,' 2, 3, 78, 80, 1838 future U.S. Policy toward, 12 Israel and, 143-44 national security issues and, 4, 74, 110,171 nuclear weapons and, 1, 3, 9, 12,70,73,75-83,110,143, 168 political power in Iraq of, 1, 7-8, 47,56,66-70,111,134,150, 173 postwar U.S. strategy and, 121 Syria and, 141143 as victor in Iraq War, 1, 7-8, 65-85,109,113,139 Iran-Iraq War, 67-68, 72, 84 Iraq: al-Qaeda and, 4 in 'Axis of Evil,' 2, 1838 Constitution of, xi, 6, 7, 26, 29, 30-33,35,47,57,66-67,105, 111, 116, 118, 119, 124, 127, 128, 132, 133, 134 Council of Representatives of, 26, 29-30,105,135 democracy and, 1, 5-7 dictator-enforced unity of, 150 disputed areas of, si t 116, 125-26,132 ethnic and sectarian divisions of, xi, 39-40, 47, 69, 113-15, 117-18,145,173 improved conditions in, 112 Iran's political power in, 1, 7-8, 47,56,66-70,111,134,150, 173 Kurdish political power in, 124 national reconciliation program in, 26-35 partition of, 7, 91, 118-19, 132, 134-35,149-50 police and security services of, 5-6,8,19,22,23,24,26, 35-36,47,49-50,54, 65-66,117,118,122, 130-31 postwar U.S. strategy for, 109-44 Provincial Reconstruction Teams in,177-78 refugees from, 1148, 134, 137, 139 Shiite political control of, 3, 6 Sunni-Shiite civil war in, sit 5, 7, 16-26,35,37,44,47,121, 130,131,132-35 Transitional National Assembly of, 22,28,32,33 Turkey's invasion of, 87-88, 89, 101,102-3 UN mandate for U.S. and coalition troops in, 135 U.S. military withdrawal from, 12, 23,111,120,121,131-32, 135-36 U.S. troop strength in, 10, 15, 67, 88,118 'Iraq: Goals, Objectives, Strategy' (Rice), 149-50 Index 199 Iraqi Army, 2, 5, 8, 19, 20, 22, 23, 25,35-38,40,48,49,52, 54-55,56,67,91,92,117, 118,123,130,131 Iraqi Governing Council, 21 Iraq Study Group, 138-39 Iraq War, 43-63 international and geopolitical aspects of, 138-40, 144 Iran as victor in, 1, 7-8, 109, 113, 139 Kurd and Shiite benefits in, 112-13 neoconservative architects of, 6, 9, 11, 18, 43, 68, 69, 107,138,139,141 political effects in U.S. of, 11-13, 144 rationales for and goals in, 1-2, 43,47,149-50 secular Iraqis as losers in, 113-14 surge in, 15-41, 45146, 47, 112, 121, 134, 139 unintended consequences of, 1-13,109,150 U.S. troop strength in, 10 Islam see Muslims Israel, 2, 8-9, 68, 109, 138, 140, 142,143-44,180 Jabr, Bayan, 36 Jordan, sit 45, 114n, 133, 134, 138 Kagan, Frederick, 18 Karbala, sit 16, 65, 115 KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) (Turkey), 60, 97, 117 KDP-I (Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran), 97-98 Khalilzad, Zalmay, 33, 119 Khan, A. Q., 4, 75 Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah, 21, 66,77 Kirkuk (city), 102, 105, 125, 127 Kirkuk (Tamin) Governorate, xi, 102,105-6,116,125-29,132 Korea, People's Democratic Republic of (North Korea), 156,171 in 'Axis of Evil,' 2, 1838 nuclear weapons and, 1, 2-3, 110, 168 U.S. national security and, 4 KosovarAlbanians, 88, 185 Kosovo, 146, 165 KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government), 4n, 31, 100, 103, 104,107 Kurdistan, sit 9, 26, 29, 30, 33, 37-41,48,55,61,67,72,73, 111, 115, 117, 118, 139, 145, 150, 151, 157, 173, 185 as de facto independent state, s i t 7,32-33,35,37,39,47,57, 113,120,124,132,133 Iraq War's benefits to, 113 Kirkuk territorial dispute and, xi, 102,125-29 oil revenues and, 133-34 population of, 91, 92, 112 postwar U.S. strategy and, 116, 123-25 Turkey and, 10,87-107,124-25, 129,146 U.S. military in, 125 Kurdistan Alliance, 127 Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (Turkey), 60, 97 Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDP-1), 97-98 200 Index Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), 4n, 31, 100, 103, 104, 107 Kuwait, 8, 68, 137, 138 Latvia, 147 Lebanon, 7,8,68,142,143,145, 146 Lugar, Richard, 34, 44 McCain, John, 47-48, 118 Iraq strategy of, 111, 119-21, 122, 136 Mahdi, Adel Abdul, 30 Mahdi Army, 22-23,36,38,39, 59,65,84,115-16,123, 130 Maliki, Nouri al-, 27, 38, 111, 118,120n,128,135-38, 139 Milosevic, Slobodan, 148-49 Mixon, Benjamin, 40 Mosul, xi, 20, 28, 116, 128, 129, 134 Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 172 Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), 71-73, 78 Musharraf, Pervez, 4 Muslim Brotherhood, 141 Muslims, 2, 152 Alawites, 140-41 in Indonesia, 146,153 see also Bosnia; KosovarAlbanians; Shiites; Sunnis Najaf, xi, 22, 28, 115, 116, 129-30 National Endowment for Democracy, 182 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE),82-83 nationalism, 25, 72, 79, 84, 92, 111, 145146,148,157-58 see also ethnic conflict; secession movements national security, 2, 11, 13, 167-86 Bush and, 4,110,167-70 diplomacy and, 174-79 freedom agenda and, 181-82 idealism and pragmatism and, 184-86 intelligence and, 170-71 Iran and, 4, 74, 110, 171 negotiation and, 182-84 North Korea and, 4, 110 Pakistan and, 4, 110 public diplomacy and, 179-81 National Security Council (NSC), 78 National War College, 176 nation building, 12-13, 52, 146, 158,160-64,185 Nineveh Governorate, xi, 28, 116, 128 Nixon, Richard M., 46 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 87, 88, 101, 149, 154, 159, 161, 175, 184 Northwest Frontier (province of Pakistan), 152 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 3, 79 nuclear weapons, 172n India and, 170-71 Iran and, 1, 3, 9, 12, 70, 73, 75-83,110,143,168 Israel and, 143-44 North Korea and, 1, 2-3, 110, 168 Pakistan and, 3-4, 12, 75, 168 Obaidi, Abdul Qadir al-, 25 Obama, Barack, 47-48, 118, 119, 121,135-36,182 Cam Abdullah, 93-95, 98 oil, 56, 107, 112, 146, 160 Iranian control of, 69, 76 Iraqi reserves of, 8, 67, 105, 115, 122,126 revenues from, 26, 30-31, 35, 118,133-34 Ottoman Empire, 67, 88, 104, 126 Ozal, Turgut, 88, 91, 92, 96 Pakistan, 4, 110, 146, 171 nuclear proliferation and, 3-4, 12, 75, 168 secession movements in, 151-52 Palestine, Palestinians, 8-9, 78, 97,109,138,143,146,180, 181 Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), 60, 91, 97, 117 Persian Gulf, xi, 8, 68, 76, 147 peshmerga, 25n, 40, 56, 97, 104, 118,123,127,129 Petraeus, David, 15-16, 17, 19-20, 85,119 PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), 10, 72,87,93-104,106 Portugal, 147, 159 Powell, Colin, 61, 62, 177 Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), 177-78 Qasr-i-Shirin, Treaty of, 67 Quebec, 156-57 Ralston, Joseph, 101 Ramos-Horta, Jose, 160, 162 Republican Party, 2, 11, 49, 57, 58, 118, 167 Rice, Condoleezza, 136, 149, 165 Rumsfeld, Donald, 5, 15, 49, 51, 52-53,54,61-62,90,159n Russia, 9, 79, 82, 149, 152, 154, 157-58 see also Soviet Union Saddam Hussein, xi, 1, 5, 8-9, 16, 22,27-28,39,40,50,52,60, 69, 73, 91, 105, 111, 112, 116, 129, 140, 150, 174, 185 execution of, 137n as former U.S. ally, 68 Iran and Syria's shared hostility toward, 141-42 Kirkuk and, 126 9/11 attacks and, 4, 81 overthrowing of, 21, 48, 66, 127 Sadr, Moqtada al-, 22-23, 28, 29, 36, 38, 65, 84, 111, 115, 116-17,120,123,130 Sadr City, 22-23, 50, 117, 123 Satirist movement, 22, 36, 61, 123 Salafl jihadis, 16-17, 20, 84, 117 Salahaddin Governorate, xi, 116, 121 Saudi Arabia, xi, 7, 8, 45, 68, 69, 81, 133, 134, 138 secession movements, 145-48, 151-62,166 see also ethnic conflict; nationalism Senate, U.S., 11, 34, 119, 135, 176 September 11, 2001, attacks, 3, 4, 81, 89, 177 Serbia, 88, 146, 148-49, 157, 161, 175,185 Shiites, 1, 22, 37, 48, 59, 70, 73, 84, 105,109,115,129-30,139, 140, 145, 146 internal divisions among, 117, 123 202 Index Shiites (cont.) Iraqi national reconciliation program and, 26-35 Iraq political power of, 3, 6, 7-8, 44-45,47,56,57,59-60,61, 67-69,112,120,122-23,124, 150 Iraq's population of, 44, 134 as majority in Iraq's south, xi, 6, 8, 22, 39, 111, 115, 122 theocratic dictatorships of, 6, 39 as winners in Iraq War, 112 Slovenia, 148, 149 Somalia, 155, 156, 185 Sons of Iraq, 17, 120-21 South Africa, Republic of, 172, 174 109, 114n, 124, 134, 137, 138, South Ossetia, 154 139-44 Soviet Union, 6, 9, 74, 94, 147-48, 149,151,152,156,172-73, Talabani, Jalal, 60, 84, 89, 91, 123, 174 139 see also Russia Taliban, 6, 22, 39 Spain, 151 Tamil Tigers, 152 Sri Lanka, 152 Tenet, George, 61, 62 State Department, U.S., 51, 71, 72, terror, war on, 1 73, 93, 137, 140, 174, 176, Iraq War and, 4, 5, 11 178 Tibet, 157 Sudan, 146,155,156 Treacherous Alliance (Parsi), 78 suicide bombings, 9, 16, 20, 26, Turkey, 87-107,109,138,139,142, 27-28,35,137,152 150 Sunni Awakening, 17,19-20,21, anti-Americanism in, 2, 9-10, 87, 24-25,35,36,110,111, 88,90, 107 113,116,117,118,120-21, Bush administration and, 87-89 122,125,130,131,132-34, Deep State of, 98-99, 100, 101 138 General Staff of, 89, 98, 99, 101, Sunnis, 7, 12, 15, 37, 47, 48, 50, 102 55,59,60,70,81,109,112, Iraq invaded by, 87-88, 89, 101, 115, 130, 141, 145, 102-3 146 Kurds and, 10,87-107,124-25, insurgency led by, 16-17, 22, 25, 129,146 35,45,84,122 Turkmens, xi, 104-5, 116, 126, internal divisions among, 117 127 Iraqi national reconciliation program and, 26-35 Iraq's population of, 44, 134 as losers in Iraq War, 113 postwar U.S. strategy and, 1 }G, 121-22,134 as refugees from Iraq, I l4n Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), 21-22,27,29,32,60,66 Supreme Court, U.S., 181-82 Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), 27, 29, 30, 38, 39, 66, 84,115-16,117,122 Syria, xi, 2, 6, 7, 43, 68, 94-95, 97, Index United Nations, 34n, 75, 112, 128, 167, 171 failed states and, 155-56 founding of, 147 nation-building and, 146, 160-66, 175 Security Council of, 3, 70, 71, 135, 142, 157, 160, 176, 185 Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET) of, 158, 160, 161, 162 U.S. and, 174 United States: East Timor and, 160 Middle East popular view of, 180 political effects of Iraq War in, 11-13 postwar Iraq strategy for, 109-44 secession movements and, 148, 156 Sunni militias supported by, 19-20,25 Turkey's relationship with, 2, 9-10 UN and, 174 see also anti-Americanism; national security United States military, 1, 3, 6, 8, 16, 18, 38, 73, 76, 77, 90, 99, 103, 111,127 Baghdad taken by, 4-5, 48-449 continued role in Baghdad for, 131-32 203 declining reputation of, 10-11 four postwar missions in Iraq for, 121 Iraq Study Group's recommendation for, 139 in Kurdistan, 125 misallocated spending and, 174-75 troop strength in Iraq, 10, 15, 67, 88,139 UN mandate for Iraqi presence of, 135 withdrawal from Iraq, 12, 23, 111,118,120,121,131-32, 135-36 Valenzuela, Carlos, 163 Vieira de Mello, Sergio, 161-62 Vietnam War, 44, 45, 46 War and Decision (Feith), 49-50 weapons of mass destruction (WMD), 1, 2, 8, 60, 90, 171, 180 see also biological weapons; chemical weapons; nuclear weapons Wolfowitz, Paul, 50, 61, 68, 69, 89, 90 women, 6, 17,124,141 Yazidis, xi, 47, 116 Yugoslavia, 145, 147, 148-49, 151, 152,156,166 About the Author Peter W Galbraith served as the first U.S. ambassador to Croa tia. Peter Peterson of Blackstone is chairman of the Council on Foreign Rela tions, the principal foreign relations policy organization in the United States, and the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics, the most influential trade policy think tank in America. ELITISM [ 95 ] The report also recommended creation of a permanent North American Advisory Council to prepare and monitor follow-up actions on decisions made at those summits. This would result in significant cost savings for the industry' The council also concluded that duplicate food audits, stiff sanitary ELITISM L 99 1 requirements, phytosanitary regulations, diverse standards on nutrition and allergens, health claim regulations, and packaging requirements are really veiled trade protectionism. 59,364,293 American Council of Life Insurers 59,363,337 Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers 59,134,765 Assn. 30,775,850 Qwest Communications 30,611,480 America's Health Insurance Plans 30,530,000 FPL Group 30,416,967 Time Warner 30,162,954 American Chemistry Council 30,066,938 Union Pacific Corporation 30,044,821 Dow Chemical 29,397,270 Northwestern Mutual 28,464,976 Financial Services Roundtable 28,330,000 National Fedn. of Veterans Affairs
Murguia, Janet National Council of La Raza White House Office Nichols,Johnnie Potomac Advocates Dept. Secretary, Trade Development Walke,John Natural Resources Defense Council Clean Air Director Environmental Protection Agency Attorney, Office of General Counsel Wexler,Daniel CapitolAssoc. Executive Vice President Domestic Policy Council Special Asst. of Justice Southern Co. Environmental Protection Agency Washington Council Ernst & Young White House Office National Beer Wholesalers Assn. VP y Environmental Legislative/Congressional ProtectionAgency Affairs White House Office Employee/Staff Blocker,AnaiasIII NewYorkStock Vice President, Government Exchange Relations y White House Office Legislative/Congressional Affairs Clinton, Bill YucaipaCompanies Investor/Adviser n President of the United States Dalton, John Financial Services President, Housing Policy Roundtable Council y Dept. More than a dozen AEI veter ans have had jobs in the George W Bush administration, including Dick Cheney (whose wife is on the AEI board); Paul O'Neill, Bush's first treasury secretary; and Glenn Hubbard, his first chairman of the Council of Eco nomic Advisors. Leon Kass is the head of Bush's Council on Bioethics. Larry Lindseywas head of the president's Council of Economic Advisors for Bush's first two years in office (and helped push through the tax cut of 2001). His successor as head of the Family Research Council, Kenneth Connor, proclaimed that 'a house divided against itself cannot stand.' 244 al-Qaeda, 214, 222, 269, 391, 393 America: abundance in,327-28 age of, 315-17 colonies of, 320,324 conservatism in, see conservatives and conservatism,American constitution of~ see constitution European view o{ 21, 24,134,139, 222, 293-95,387-93,394,395,397 44 2 • INDEX America (cominued) exceptionalism oQ 291-313,314-33,334-53, 357,396 geOgraPhY0f,1-3,14,19•315,324,329-32, 386 omnipresence of; 294-95 population of 297, 299, 391 power of,297-98,390-91,392 Revolution in, 47,317-19,320-21,342 American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), 97 American Civil Rights Institute, 273 American Conservative, zoo American Conservative Union (ACU), to, 93, 101, 355, 400 American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), 79-82,153-55, 160,161,168-7o, 204, 205, 255, 256, 263, 286 DeMuth and, 113,16q development 4 49-50,76-77,8o foreign policy and, 219,221,223 Goldwater and, 6o-61, 76 neoconservativesin,2o6 American Land Rights Association, 181 American Legislative Exchange Council, 82 American Political Science Association, 230 Americans for Democratic Action, 362 Americans with Disabilities Act, 98 Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), rb-17,18, 1 57, 1 75, 1 95 American Spectator, 101,107 Amtrak, 158 Anderson, Martin, 69 Andover, 14, 29,34 Amman, Kofi, 393 Annenberg, Walter, 87 Anthem, Ariz., H. W Bush and, 98, 99 G. W Bush and, 147,149,184 in California, 124 Israel and, 215 seeaho Religious Right Christianity: Yale University and, 5o see aho religion; Religious Right Christian organizations, 6 Focus on the Family, 6,11,15,16,186-88, 194,341 Christian Right, see Religious Right Christian television and radio programs, :x, 12, 84 church and state, separation o£ 272, 324, 326 churches, 8 4, 1 5 0 , 2 33,3 10 ,3 2 4 -2 5 , 379 attendance at,12,112,263,310,311,311,371 Churchill, Wuuton,13, 13,391 Ciruimlati Engnirm, 56 Citizens Committee of the Right to Keep and Bear Aims, 179 City College of NmYork, 72,73 civil rights, 1o, 20, 28, 33, Sz, 64 - 65, 70, 90,146, 275, 311,325 Helms and, 86 Civil Rights Act, to, 3z, 33, 54, 64, 9o Civil War, 31; 47, 52, 227, 228, 316, 317, 321 Clare Bootle Luce Policy Institute, 283 Clark, Wesley, 360, 361, 364 class, 12,236,253,311 Clean Air Act, 7o, 98 Cleland,May, 196,197,247 Cleveland, Ohio, 276 Canton, Bill, to-11,18, 40, 85,94-97, x03-5, 116,116,127,140,155-56,170,172-73,198, 209,232, on abortion, 309 Blair and, 133 G. H. W Bush and, r03-4, 108 cabinet o£ co6 Christian Coalition and, 112 churchgoing o£ D2, 371 Congress and, ro6, log conservative barred of,1074,109,110, 367, 382,385 death penalty and, 368-69 Democratic Convention address o£ 127-28 DLC and x8, Io3, ro6, D8 economic policies o£ xob, :o8, log, 118, 126-27,255,256 education expenditures under, 259 environmentalism and, 182 foreign policyof, 95, x20,199, 199,213, 219, 297, 390 andgays in military, 96, ro6 Gingrich and, n6 gun control and, no, 120 health care and, 96,108-9,110,113,176, 176,305 Hollywood supporters o£ 372 impeachment attempt against, 121,122, 125, 264,287 liberalism and, lo5-9,112, 363-64 married voters and, 243 NRA and, i77 political money and, 366 presidency of, IOS-IO,117-22,J26,128,383 presidency defined by, mo-2i presidential reelection o£ D9 presidential victory of(1992), loo-5 professionals and, 242 scandals surrounding 107-8,121-22,133, 286,287,364 second term 0£ 1x9-22 triangulation strategy o£ 117, xx8 welfare reform under, it, 95, 96,114,118, 119,120,126,304 Whitewater and 108,121 women politicians and, 284 working-class voters and, 235 Clinton, Chelsea, 112 Canton, Hillary R.odham,107,112, 171,195, 284,355 cabinet and, ro6 churchgoingo£ 371 on conservative conspiracy, 16,194,195, 196,353 ccokie-bakingremark of, 287-88 Goldwaterand, co,365 health care program o£ 109,110,113,176, 305,359 political drift of, 364-65,383 welfare reform and, :x8 Whitemater and, log Clinton Cbronlcler, 7be (Falwell),107 cloning, 14849,185,187 Club for Growth, 157,159,175 CNN, 162,279 Coalitions forAmerica, x7-18 CObbett, William, 327 Coffin, William Sloane, 35 Cohn, Roy, 45-46 Cold War, 74, 92, 93, 95, 96,102,128, 213, 292, 294, 296, 391, 392 Coleman, Norm, 282 Coleridge, SamuelTaylor,14 collectivism, 50,151, 381 College Republicans (CR), 36,111,195, 195,270, 278-79,281,282,362 Collegiate Network, 281 Colorado, 234,238 Colorado Springs, 5-6,7, 12, IS, j86, IN Colson, Chuck, 1 37 Colton, Calvin, 326 'Coming White Underelass,The' (Murray), 115 Comm-Wry, 76,92 Committee on the Present Danger, 92 Committee for the Removal of the President (CREEP II), 83 Committee for the Survival of a Free - Congress (Free Congress Foundation), 17, 77, 81, 82,112 Common Cause, 82 communism, 20,44 43, 47, 51, 59, 62, 63, 74, 90, loo, 268, z9z, 322, 396 G. H. W Bush and, 98 fall of, 95 John Birch Society and, 61 McCarthy and, 45-46,349 Nixon and, 68 Communists, reformed, 44, 49 communities, planned, 35 0 -53,3 81 , 386 Competitive Enterprise Institute, 181 Confederacy, 31,197, 228, 253, 262 Confessore, Nicholas, 258 Congress, 23,256 G. W Bush's run for, 35 - 36,37 Clinton and, lo6,lo8 Partisanship in,355 Republicans in, 22, 95, xo6, 228, 231, 248, 258,365,380 tee also House of Representatives; Senate Congressional Club, 86 Cong'IsiondRecord, loo Connecticut, 28 Comedy Ward, 273-74 Connor, Kenneth, 184 Contciertte ofa Conlevarive, The (Goldwater), 34,59,254,281 Conservative Caucus, 82 ConrerelativeMind, The (Kirk), 43,47 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC),18-t9, 92,172-74,179,195,341 INDEX • 447 conservatives and conservatism, 337 in Britain, 265,334-36,338,343,344-45,346 defining, 12-13 European, 12,13,14,338,339,343,344, 345 - 46,348,353 as global movement, 88-89 use of term, 8, I5 conservatives and conservatism, American: asAmerican, 16,19-21, 23-24,353,382 American Revolution and, 47,317-19, 320-2x antigovernment, 9,13,IS,20,22,32,40,49, 58, 59, 89, 90,116, 117,123,174-8z, 34I, 345,351,352,382 benefactors and foundations for, 77-79,153, 155,r61,166,2o6 big-government, 260-62 black, z7o,271-77 G. H. W. Bush asviewed by, 96,98-99, coz, x04-5 of G. W Bush presidency, x32,133-34,139, 141,IS1,153 characteristics of, II-IS, 252,339-4o choice and, 246 classical, 341,345 Clinton hated by, 107-9,109,110,367,382, 385 'compassionate,' G. W Bush as, 38,113,117, 131, confidence o£ 345,396-97 contradictions in,IS,195,z51,z67-69,383 Democrats, 83 eccentricity among 43, 46, 49,153, 272, 383 1150 Seventeenth Street and, 153-55 1896 election and, 228 as establishment, 153-71 exceptionalism of, n, go, 291-313,314-33, 334-53,357 extremism and intolerance in, 122-23, 262-64 factions in, 102, 25T-54 Far Right marginalized by, 348-49 footsodiers, x5,16,40-41, 52, 64, 72, 8o, 85, 99,109,112,171,172-97, 270 - 88,34041, 342, 345, 352 gap between rest ofAmerica and, i5-j6 geography and, 1-3,14,324,329-32 Goldwater and, 57, 59 heartland values vs. free-market principles in, z5z, 253-54, 267 intellectuals, 15, 40-41, 43, 46, 49, 52, 64, 72, 80,153,156-6o, 235 Internet and, 164,165 448 • INDEX conservatives and conservatism,American (romknued) Johnson and, 62 in liberal America, 270-88 libertarians, 51, 252-53,267,34o mainstream of~ 340-4t married voters and, 242-43 in media, 162-65, 283, 286-87 as movement, 8, it, t5, r6,18,23-24,4o-62, 72,313,314,33 2 mutations in,340 neoconservatives, see neoconservatives from 1952-r964, 4o-62 from 1988-2ooo, 94 Nixon and, 70-71 NRA and, no-ii; retain, National Rifle Association optimism of, 14, 252,342,346-48,353 organization and cohesiveness of 16-r8, 194-97,382 paleoconservatives,102,272,340 paranoia among, 43-46,61, 7o-7r, 349 planned communities and, 350-53 as reformation, 341 Religious Right, see Religious Right rise of, 4o, 64 as rive drotte, 153-7 Rove and, x73-74 rule of two-thirds and, 356 September 1t as uniting force for, 269 social, see social conservatives success of, 380-84 in1exas, 31, 32 think tanks of 15,49-50,76-77,79,80, 81-82,113,153, x57-61,165,167-68, r7o, 173, 204, 272, 337, 367, 382 traditionalism and nostalgia in, 43, 46-47,51,102, 252-53,331,340,341-43, 344,348 use of term, 8,15 Western, Reagan and, go women, 271, z8z-88 YoungpCOPle, 270,271,278-82 see afro Republicans, Republican Party Conservative Society ofAmerica, 43 Conservative Union, 286 constitution, 19,3r,116,149,212,272,315,316, 317,318,385 abortion and, 309-10 conservatism and, 320 Fifth Amendment to, 181 FirstAmendment to, 174, 324 gay marriage and, 149-50,184 Sec miAmendment to, 177,178,179,28o ThitteenthAmendment to, 316 contraception, 28,33,65 Contract with America, ii5-r6,117,122,125, 254 Contract with the American Family 122 Coors, Jowph, 77, 78, 87,161 corporate contributions, 79-80,366 Corzine,Jon,366 Cost of Living Council, 7o Coulter, Ann, 165,251,286-87 Council of Conservative Citizens, z5o Council on Foreign Relations, 87,2o6 Courtney, Kent, 43 CPAC (Conservative PoliticalAction Conference), r8-tg,92,r72-74,179,195 341 CR, see College Republicans Craddick, Tom, 32, 37, 39 Crane, Edward, 78 creationism, 159, 264 Cre?vecoeui J. Hector St. John de, 327 crime, criminals, 8, 65,66,67, 65, 68,108,111, 236, 2 43, 262 , 28 3, 28 4, 294,367 American exceptionalism and, 295, 3oo-3oz Giuliani and, 1 1 4 Kennedy and, 336 1994 bill on, no Reaganon,91 me also death penalty and execution Criswell, W A, 84 Cromwell, Oliver, 336 Crow, Sheryl, x65 C-SPAN, 1oo-tot Cuba, 61, 212, 296, 389 Cuban-Americans, 239 Cubin, Barbara, 284,400 culture, 102 see also moral values Cuomo, Mario, 94,369 Cushman, Chuck, 181 Daalder,Ivo,zol-z Dallas,Tex, 20 Daniels, Mitch,16o Daneon,Ted,361 Dare m Duripline (Dobson),186 DarkAgesweekends, t8 Darman, Richard, 102 Dart, Justin, 87 Dartmouth Review, x69 Darwinism, 1 59 DaschleAccountability Project, 278 Davis, Gray, 125,265,266-67,369 Davis,Jefferson,31 Dean, Howard, 7, z36,247,297,355,357-6i, 364, 366, 371372 background of, 358 death penalty and execution, 8, 9, 20, 21, 23, 65,108,124,138,146,193, 261, 302, 335, 359,367-6938 2 G. W Bush and, 368 Clinton and, io-ii, 95 Democrats and, 367,368-70 frontier and, 332 Kerry and, 361,368 neoliberalism and, 97 working-class voters and, 236 Deaver, Michael, 92 Declaration of Independence, 272,3x5,0 defense: DLC and, 103 missiles in,127,156,210,293,297 overseas bases, 293 spending on, 21,93,21,93, 140, 211. 280, 303, 381, 382,390,392 studems'views on, 280 Defense Department, 69, zo8 Defense Planning Guidance, 211 Defense Policy Board, 16o, 200,207 DeLayTom,1o5,161,178,185,187, 234, 251, 258,282,362,363,379 Dell Computer, 138 democrary, 293, 294, 315, 319,343 Strauss and, 74,75 Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), 103, 126,242 Clinton and, 18,103,1o6, x18 Democratic National Committee, 94,233 Democrats, Democratic Party, 10, 332 age of party, 315 blacks and, 64-65, 235, 240, 242, 271, 276, 2772 325 G. W Bush hated by, 356,381,384-85 business and, 244 in California, 266-67 campaign contributions raised by, 232,366 capital punishment and, 367, 368-7o choice and, 245, 246 Christian, It Christian Evangelicals and, 83 Clinton's triangulation strategy and, 117,1111 in Congress, G. H. W Bush and, 99 in Congress, Clinton and, co6 conservatism in, 23, 83, 367,370 INDEX • 449 Dean and, 357,358,359-6o demogaphyand, 238-44 1840 platform of, 320 Eisenhower and, 41,42 government spending by, 256 Great Society programs and, 64-65 in House, 3, 57.101, As early as 1965, two of President Johnson's economists-Gardner Ackley, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Charles Schultze, then director of the Bureau of the Budget-recommended a tax increase to iS THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH dampen economic demand.* Congress made that commitment with the Employment Act of 1946, creating the Council o£ Economic Advisers to monitor economic conditions and make recommendations to the president. At the same hearing, Paul McCracken, the first chairman of Nixon's Council of Economic Advisers, supported a 'stimulus' program, arguing that the inflation risk would be 'ac ceptable.' See consumer debt Bretton Woods, 60,90n Bryan, William Jennings, 87 bubbles, 6, 28, 37, 38, 181, 196, 208, 234 budget deficits Kennedy's views, 60-61 relationship to trade deficits, 160n and welfare state, 215-16, 217 Burns, Arthur, 77-78, 97-98, 103, 118 Burtless, Gary, 191 Bush, George H. W, 109 business cycles in classical economics, 55 concept of eliminating, 47-48, 50, 55, 63 government's ability to control, 63 in Great Depression, 55-56 impact of competition, 182 impact of spending, 193-94 in new economic order, 176 question of taming, 151,198-99 smoothing as art, 228 spending categories, 195 Byrd, Harry, 60 Byrd, Robert C., 113 301 Index C Calder, Lendol, 220 Califano, Joseph, 95-96 call loans, 88 Cannon,Lou,114 capital controls, 161, 162, 164, 197, 250 capital flows, 161, 162,250 capitalism adaptability, 166 basic characteristics, 156 imperfectability, 247-48 modern backlash, 205-6 in popular culture, 166-67 in post-World War II decades, 146-51 relationship of inflation to, 145-46 in 1980s, 7-8 in U.S. history, 141-45 See also globalization Carter, Jimmy 1980 economic package, 125-26 chooses Volckerto head Fed, 118-20 Council of Economic Advisers, 124, 125 embraces incomes policy, 99-101 and Federal Reserve, 91,109,118-20 and inflation issue, 23-24, 39-40, 66, 69-70 malaise speech, 25,119 speech on nation's loss of faith, 25-26 and wage-price controls, 91 CEA. See employment jobs, Steve, 151 Johnson, Haynes, 39 Johnson, Lyndon B. and capital controls, 164n and Federal Reserve, 91,103 and Great Society, 16,65-66 impact of tax cut, 62 and inflation, 15-16, 94-96 role of economics, 52, 55 and wage and price controls, 91,94-96 Jones, Reginald, 70,119 Jordan,Jerry, 116 K Kahn, Alfred, 24,126 Kaufman, Henry, 133 Kemp, Jack, 113 Kennedy, David, 67 Kennedy, Edward M.,109 Kennedy,John E Council of Economic Advisers', 51, 52-53,54,57-58,59,60,61 election of 1960, 50-51 tax cut proposal, 61-62 views on budget deficits, 60-61 Kennedy, Paul, 158 Keynes, John Maynard, 21-22,51, 55-56, 62,167 Kilburn, Peter, 22 Killian, Lutz, 15 King, Robert G., 128 Korean War, 15, 18, 92, 96n Kraft, Joseph, 23 Kroc, Ray, 151 L Lardner, James, 176,185 Lazear, Edward, 185 Lee, Chulhee,191 legal tender, 85 lender of last resort, 223, 228-29,255-56 Lenin, Vladimir, 20, 21-22 Lerner,Josh,197 leveraged buyouts (LBOs), 154,197 Linden, Peter, 244-45 Lindsey, David E., 271 Lipset, Seymour Martin, 27-28 London, Paul, 152,229 Lowenstein, Roger, 166-67 M Maisel, Sherman, 80 'Malaise,' 25, 28, 119 Marshall Plan, 161 Martin, William McChesney Jr., 79-80, 103 Matusow, Allen, 66,69 Mayer, Martin, 197 McCracken, Paul, 70 McCullough, Hugh, 84-85 McDonald's, 151 McKinley, William, 87 McNamara, Robert, 95 Means, Gardner, 153 Medicaid, 65, 215, 216, 226,229 Medicare, 65,215,216,226,229-33 Meltzer, Allan, 80,102 Microsoft, 158 Miller, Adolph, 80 Miller, G. William, 101,119 3o6 Index mixed economy, 142,155-56 monetary policy defined,90-91,256 versus fiscal policy, 90-91 money bimetallic standard, 84-85 before Great Depression, 84 importance of trust, 84 as inelastic, 88 as medium of exchange, 84 as specie, 84 as store of value, 84 as unit of account, 84 in U.S. history 85-90 See also dollar money illusion, 10, 30 money multiplier, 122n, 124,256 money supply controlling, 121-24,130-31,132,133 defined,256 Friedman's view, 76,171n money velocity, 76n, 256 money-market mutual funds, 33, 35, 122 Mayers, Hill, 114 My Years with General Motors (Sloan), 168-669 N NAIRU. In mid October when the nationalization plan was unveiled, Edward Lazear, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, stood on the White House lawn talking to reporters. U.S. officials spent considerable time and energy persuading Arab governments that the United States was committed to the defense of the Gulf Cooperation Council states, that it would remain in the region in force, and that U.S. forces would be capable of deterring or defeating any Iraqi attack. Indeed, at the national level, it would be extremely helpful to form some sort of ad visory council early on (preferably designated by the United Nations) to assist in decision making. I am very proud to have this work carry the imprimatur of a Council on Foreign Relations book, because without the Council's support it would have been a far poorer effort. In addition, my work on this book was made possible by a generous grant from the John M. Olin Foundation to the Council, and hav ing been a beneficiary of its support before, I continue to be grateful to them for making my work possible. In addition, Les's constant prodding to take advantage of the full resources of the Council, and particularly its world-class experts, made AGKN08'LKDGMENTS 427 would like to do some writing for him. In August 2002, as U.S. officials were starting to beat the war drums loudly for Iraq, Natanz and an other nuclear facility-a so-called heavy water plant under construc tion at Arak that could yield plutonium, another potential bomb fuel-were exposed by an Iranian antiregime group based outside Paris called the National Council of Resistance, the political wing of a terrorist organization, the Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK). However, Iran refused to suspend ura nium enrichment as a precondition for talks, even after the UN Secu rity Council voted in July 2006 to make suspension mandatory. Key THE BLACKSMITH'S SON 43 decisions about foreign policy are made by the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who is advised by a council of about a dozen senior officials that includes Ahmadinejad but is not dominated by him. Six months after the election Mohsen Rezaie, a former Revolutionary Guards commander and number two in the Ex pediency Council, dismissed Ahmadinejad as though the president were a boy in short pants. These included a revolutionary council of top advisers to Khomeini, revo lutionary courts that summarily executed the shah's old officials, a revolutionary guard to protect the clerics, and revolutionary com mittees that terrorized neighborhoods and enforced observance of strict Islamic law. Candidates for membership, currently all clerics, must be approved by the Council of Guardians and serve for eight years. The parlia ment has shifted in orientation since the revolution from leftist in the 1980s to conservative in the early 1990s, to reformist in the late 1990s, and, after the 2004 elections, back to conservative, following the dis qualification of several dozen incumbent reformers by the Council of Guardians. The group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), was led by a Shiite cleric, Mohammad Baqr al-Hakim, and had a fifteen-thousand member Iranian-trained militia known as the Badr Brigades. Khatami's 'emphasis on the rule of law in the absence of constitutional reforms had the ef fect of tightening the grip of the country's unelected clerical rulers, who used the judiciary and the appointed Guardian Council ... In 2000, Iravani decided to run for parliament from his Caspian district but was initially disqualified by the Council THE MULLAHS of Guardians, which sought to boost the chances of more conservative figures. and the Council of Guardians ... 'Even if you appoint me as leader, I may behave like Khamenei because you have [control over] the radio and television, the army, the Revolutionary Guards, the money, the propaganda, the intelligence services, the police, the judiciary, the Council of Guardians, which can control any election including the Assembly of Experts. Instead, Mohadessin spends his time in a Paris suburb, Auvers-sur-Oise, that serves as headquarters for the National Council of Resistance, the political wing of the Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK), or People's Holy War riors. The English Web site of the National Council of THE OPPOSITION 167 Resistance refers to Maryam Rajavi as the 'president-elect of the Irani an resistance' and lists a fourteen-point program for Iran, including an end to discrimination against women and ethnic minorities, autonomy for Kurds, and renunciation of weapons of mass destruction.' Asked about the session with the National Intelligence Council three years later, Rice said she didn't remember it. 37-38 Iranian reformers and, 110, 112 Khobar Towers bombing and, 188-89 Revolutionary Guards and, 89,96 U.S.-Iran relations and, 4,175-77,181, 185-88,190-91,194,197,214,220 Conoco, 69, 183, 188 Constitutional Revolution of 1906, 144 Cordesman, Anthony, 24, 38 Council of Guardians, 184 governmental system and, 66-67, 71, 73, 77, 80, 82 mullahs and, 150-53 political opposition and, 156-58 Crocker,Ryan, 199,211,225-26 Dabbagh, Hossein (Abdulkarim Soroush), 106-7,109,156 Dashti, Ronak, 171 Defense Department, U.S., 224-26 Iranian nuclear program and, 28, 37, 212 U.S.-Iran relations and, 201-2, 206, 208,225 and U.S. war in Iraq, 26,201-2, 210-11,225 Denmark, Mohammed cartoons and, 8 Derakhshan, Hossein, 133 Developers' Coaltion, 48, 75 Djerejian, Edward, 181 Dobbins, James, 198 Dorri-Najafabadi, Qorbanali, 104-5, 113 drug addiction, 127-28, 158, 186 dual containment, 181-82, 189 Ebadi, Negar, 137-38 Ebadi, Shirin, 131-32, 137-38 Ebrahimby-Salami, Gholamheidar, 11 Ebtekar, Massoumeh, 108 Egypt, 27-28, 60, 78, 147 Einhorn, Robert, 26, 29, 33 Eisenhower, Dwight, 15,28 Emami, Saeed, 113 Esfandiari, Haleh, 173 Eurodif, 28,36 Executives of Construction, 75, 111 Expediency Council, 71, 73, 84, 114 Faiziyeh, 141,144 Fakhravan, Amir Abbas, 159-60 Farhi, Farideh, 81 Feith, Douglas, 206, 211 females, see women, females Forouhar, Dariush and Parvaneh, 113 France, 34, 56, 95, 108, 124-25, 135, 140, 157,166-70,186,199,204 Iranian nuclear program and, 26, 36, 212-13,222 Iranian political opposition and, 166, 169 Freeh, Louis, 89 From, David, 12,200 Fuizi, Yahyia, 122 2,50 INDEX Ganji, Akbar, 85 political opposition of, 155-60, 172, 174 reforms and, 99, 107, 114, 117 Gates, Robert, 225 Germany, 3, 60,145, 217 Iranian nuclear program and, 26, 29, 36,212-13,221-22 Gerson, Michael, 12, 200 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 116,120 Gordon, Philip, 212 Gore, AI, 188-89 grand ayatollahs, 142-43, 148 Great Britain, 49, 66, 73, 92, 128, 135-36, 157,164 Iranian history and, 13-14 Iranian nuclear program and, 26, 28, 30, 212, 222 mullahs and, 141, 144 and wars in Iraq, 34, 162 Guardian Council, 95, 116-18 Guldimann, Tim, 204 Gulf War, 25,163, 179-80, 210 Haass, Richard, 81, 200, 225-26 U.S. Iran relations and, 4, 196-97, 208 Hadley, Stephen, 76-77, 200, 209 U.S.-Iran relations and, 217, 219 Hajiahmadi, Baharak, 103-4 Hajjarian, Saeed, 107, 116, 119 Hakim, Mohammad Baqr al-, 92 Heydari, Azam, 131 Hezbollah, 101 Lebanon and, 18, 37, 55, 87-88, 182, 224-25,230 Revolutionary Guards and, 87-88, 90-93 HIV/AIDS, 128,151 Holocaust, 8, 43, 52-53, 59-60, 70,150, 173 Hossein, 8-9,14,45, 124 Hussein, Saddam, 5, l1-12, 14,18-19, 46-48,67,167,179-81,210 -11 Iran-Iraq war and, 1, 18, 46-47, 87, 123,169,175-76 Kurds and, 163-64 mullahs and, 140-41 overthrow of, 82, 91-92, 141, 160, 202, 210 U.S. Iran relations and, 175, 179-80 and U.S. wars in Iraq, 11, 26, 89, 91-92, 179-80, 225 Hutchings, Robert, 25 Inderfurth, Rick, 186-87 India, 13, 27, 48,155, 198, 215 nuclear program of, 29, 34, 53 Indyk, Martin, 181-83, 187-90 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 19, 33 Iranian nuclear program and, 25-26, 29-31,36,55,167,215,222-23,230 Iran: ambivalent attitudes toward U.S. in, 3, 5,9 -12, 21, 227 anti-U.S. Not 28 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY long after the 2002 elections, Eli Pariser joined the Reverend Bob Edgar, head of the National Council of Churches, NAACP chairman Julian Bond, and other left-wing leaders at a press conference to announce the creation of Win Without War, a new coalition of groups opposed to the prospect of war in Iraq. The relationship with the National Council of Churches and the NAACP put MoveOn in the first tier of antiwar orga nizations. At home, there was the space committee and the competitiveness council. Meanwhile, the director of Bush's National Economic Council, Lawrence Lindsey, made the mistake of speaking much too candidly ANGLER in a newspaper interview. 247-48 Jefferson, Thomas, 16, 57 Index Jeffords, Jim, 63, 77-80,201, 311, 342, 378 Johawn,Lyndon,57 Joint Chiefs of Staff, 36, 59,163 Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System (J W ICS), 222 Judicial Watch, 106 Justice Department, U.S, 12, 27, 36, 142, 143, 151, 152,163,167,277-78,344-45,379 Office of Intelligence Policy and Review of, 151, 308 warrantless surveillance revolt in, 277-78, 280, 293,294-98,299-326,389 see also Office of Legal Council Kasich, John, 6, 22, 30 Kass, Steve, 75-77 Katrina, Hurricane, 132, 328-30, 386 Kavanaugh, Brett, 306,345 Kay, David, 247 Kearney, William, 210 Keating, Carrie, 10 Keating,Catherine, 10, 13 Keating, Chip, 10 Keau ting, Frank, 25-30,40, 343 as possible attorney general, 26-28 in vice-presidential search process, 1-4,6,10-14, 20, 21, 22, 28 Keating, Kelly, 10 Kelly, James A., 229, 376 Kelly, Michael, 213 Kemp, Jack, 13, 131, 259 Kerman, George, 'Long Telegram' of, 223 Kennedy, Anthony, 285,345,354 Kerrick, Donald L., 112 Kerry, John, 292, 312, 327 Khalilzad, Zalmay, 246-47 Khan, Abdul Qadeey 228 Khobar Towers honabing, 228 Khomeini, Ruholla, 238 Khomeini, Sayyid Hussein, 238 Kim Jong 11, 228, 372, 373, 375 King,John,16I King, Larry, 45-46,336 Kinsley,Michael, 266 Klain, Ron, 70, 165 Klamath water dispute, 195, 19(,_97, 199, 200-204, 209 science disputed in, 209-13 violent protests in, 203-1 Knutson, Karen, 84, 91, 199 Kollm-Kotelly, Colleen, 308, 320 Kumaroff, Anthony, 371 Korean War, 394 Krisml, William, 50, 273-74 Kudlc w, Larry, 259, 261 ,2, 273 Kvd(ow & Cramez 262 Kumar, Martha Joynt, 86 Kwiatkowski, Karen, 225 Kyl, Jon, 6, 30,57 Kyoto environmental agrcemcnq 63, 88 Laden, Osema bin, 344 Laffey Arthur, 257-58, 262, 265 Laffer Curve, 258, 264 Lamberth, Royce C., 151-52, 153, 302, 308 Larry King Live, Chency on, 45-16 LaRue, Jan, 52 Las Vegas, Nev., In addition, the NJDEP has arranged for 'a single case officer for the whole city,' according to a member of Trenton's BEST Council. New president of YSU came in and got everyone focused '3 Swires was an active city council member representing the 7th Ward. When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, he tapped the forty-one-year-old econo mist to head the White House's Council of Economic Advisers. Draut, Strapped, 33; 'Federal Student Loan Debt: 1993 to 2004,' American Council on Education Issue Brief (Washington, DC, June 2005), available online at www.acenet.edu/AM/Template.cfm?Section= I was also invited to join the group's leadership council and be a fea tured speaker at a reception in New York with about seventy-five guests. Based on my encounters with the vice president's Task Force and the Council on Environmental Quality, the trials of the automobile manufacturers versus California and Vermont, and meetings such as the one I attended at ExxonMobil headquarters, I had an empirical STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN basis for inferences about obstacles to needed policies. See also carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous ox ide; runaway greenhouse effect absorption of solar energy, 63-64 as amplifying feedback, 38, 49, 73-74 carbon dioxide as, 2 as climate forcing, 5, 6f, 8, 9 Earth's energy balance and, and 251 increase in, in Holocene period, 45, 46, 47f release of, from melting ice sheets, 74 Greenland ice sheet Arctic sea ice melting and, 166 melting of, 78f, 83-84, 86, 164-65, 252-53,255 as tipping point indicator, 276 Greenpeace, 246 greenwashing defined, ix by government officials, ix, x-xi, 112, 178, 187, 205, 221, 224, 260,267 and public's ability to affect policy, 242 Griffin, Michael, 127, 132, 134, 136, 151-52, 161 Gumett, Don, 94 Gutro, Rob, 93-94, 110 Hagel, Chuck, 30, 31 Halpern, David, 53 Hanel, Rudy, 62 Hansen, Amuck, xiv, xv, 53, 70, 113, 131, 203,237, 272, 273 Hansen, Erik, 70 Hansen, James anticoal activism, 178-82, 186-87 attempted isolation of, 34, 68 background, xiii-xv climate change e-mails, 238-39, 241-42 critics of, 107-8 misrepresentations of, 31 and monarch butterflies, efforts to save, 271-73 296 Hansen, James (continued) openness (tactlessness) of, 53, 60-61,66 political views of, x, 29, 90, 95 prostate cancer of, 272 and public speaking, dislike of, 90-91 research, 91 Web site, 98, 117, 122, 169, 179, 186, 187, 224, 246 as witness, x, xii-xiii, 91-92 Harris, Carolyn, 17, 25 Hartman, Colleen, 128 Hatch Act, 96 Hearty, Paul, 85, 143 Heinz, John, 29 Helms, Jesse, 30, 31 Herrick, Catherine, 130 Hess, Mark, 126,128 Hoffman, Paul, 228 Holocene period climate in, 37f, 39 development of civilization in, 38-40,84-85,141,143 extension of, by human climate forcings, 48-49 sea level during, 37f, 44, 143 warming, causative factors, 45-48 House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 137-38 House Committee on Science and Technology, 132 Hovenier, Joop, 65 human history, climate change and, 38-40,84-85,143 Hunten, Donald, 97 hydraulic fracturing, 184-85 hydroelectric power, 208 hydrologic cycle, global warming and, xv-xvi ice age climate in, 8-9 ice sheet coverage in, 36 impact on human life, 39 impossibility of recurrence, 36-37, 49,229 sea level in, 39, 44, 71 ice and snow, melting of, and climate feedback, 42, 44, 50, 73-74 icebergs, increasing number of, 83, 84 INDEX ice core records, 37, 46, 232 ice sheets Earth's tilt and, 48 growth, rate of, 72, 84, 144 melting consequences of, 144 and delay of climate change, 235 Earth's energy imbalance and, 235-36,251 feedback factors, 84 in Holocene period, 45-46, 47f inertia in, 72-73, 274, 275 IPCC estimates of, 79, 81, 82, 84, 88 and oceans circulation patterns, 251-53 ocean warming and, 83-84, 86 rate of, 50, 72, 84, 142-44, 250-51,255-56 recent increase in, 74 and sea level, 37f, 38, 72-73, 83, 85, 160,236, 250 of recent ice age, 36 sensitivity to temperature change, 76 ice shelves melting of, 83-84, 256 removal of, and increased ice sheet melting, 72 as tipping point indicator, 276 An Inconvenient Tmth (film(, 35-36, 172 India and cap-and-trade, 219-20 coal and, 179, 190, 194, 204 fossil fuel emissions, 177f, 189, 189f, 192 and nuclear power, 2,31 stake in global warming action, 192-93 inertia and climate change, visible effects of, 274 ice sheet melting and, 251 impact on global warming, 72-73, 235-36 interaction with climate feedbacks, 73-74 Institute on Climate and Planets, 17-18,25 interferometer, 64, 67 INDEX interglacial periods, sea level in, 85-86,142,143 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business-as-usual scenarios of, 10, 22, 76,81 carbon dioxide level projections, 121f, 122 climate model, limitations of, 74, 75,76 Earth's energy imbalance estimates, 102 fossil fuel reserves estimates, 173, 174f, 184f on global warming, 4 on ice sheet melting, 79, 81, 82, 84,88 National Academy of Sciences en dorsement of, 56 on sea level rise, 81, 88 IRIS (Infrared Interferometer Spec trometer, 62, 64 isotherms, poleward shifting of, 146 'Is There Still Time to Avoid 'Dan gerous Anthropogenic Interfer ence'with Global Climate?' (Hansen), 113 It's My Party, Too (Whitman), 30-31 Jacobson, Mark, 52 Japan coal emissions, efforts to eliminate, 181-82,186-87 energy efficiency in, 183, 190 fossil fuel emissions, 177f, 182f, 189f Kyoto Protocol and, 183, 205-6 Jezierski, J. T., 134 - John Mercer effect, 88 judicial branch anti-fossil fuel court cases, 243-49 special interest's influence on, 244 Katrina (hurricane), 257 Keeling, Charles David Hansen's speech in honor of, 112-16 repercussions of Hansen speech, 124-29 research by, 116-17 Keeling, Ralph, 112-13 297 Keeling curve, I I 6f, 117 Kemeny Commission, 195 Kemeny John, 195 Kennedy, Robert F., Jr., 248-49 Kerr, Richard, 54, 55 Kerry, John, 200 King, Larry, 131, 238 Kingsnorth power plant (United King dom), 239, 246-47 Kirschvink,Joseph, 228 Komanoff, Charles, 216 Kruger, Dina, 52 Kyoto Protocol Climate Task Force on, 15 ineffectiveness of, 52, 80, 123, 182-83,205-6 negotiation of, 218 supporters of, 203-4 U.S. refusal to sign, 2, 3, 29, 80 Lacis, Andy, xiii, xiv, 71, 98 land use, atmospheric carbon dioxide from, 173, 174f Larson, John B., 216 latent heat, and storm intensity in crease, 252-53 Lean, Judith, 7 Levitus, Sydney, 101 life on Earth, impossibility of replac ing, 273 Lincoln, Abraham, 40, 56, 168, 211 Lindzen, Richard 'Dick' on climate sensitivity, 55-56, 58 and Climate Task Force, 11-12, 14-15 Hansen debate with, xvi on smoking and lung cancer, 15-16 White House presentation (2003), 53-54,56-58 Link, Franti6ek, xiii-xiv Little Ice Age, 8, 9 Live Earth, 240-41 lobbyists cap-and-trade and, 213 - influence of, 186, 224 Lovins, Amory B., 21-22, 21f, 188, 191, 203, 208 Loy, Frank, 90, 91, 92 Mahone, Glenn, 110, 125 Manhattan Project, 54-55, 204 298 INDEX INDEX 299 Marburger, lack, 33, 34, 112 Markey, Ed, 211, 212, 215 Mars, climate of, xv, 224, 225f Massey Energy, 244, 248 McCain, John, 95 McCarthy, Leslie, 93, 125, 126-28, 132, 134 McElroy, Mike, 66,68 McKibben, Bill, 140, 164, 277 McKitrick, Ross, 58 Medawar, Peter Brian, 115 media and censorship of scientific infor mation, 130 government greenwashing and, 224 Hansen's contacting of, 96, 110, 114-15,125,131-32 journalistic bias, 115 misrepresentation of global warm ing data, 123 NASA restrictions on contact with, 125-29 support for contrarians, 168 Mercer, John, 88 Merkel, Angela, 179, 181 methane as amplifying feedback, 49 atmospheric levels in Holocene era, 45 as tipping point indicator, 276 as climate forcing, 6f, 9, 51 emissions, reduction of, 51, 52 methane ice (methane hydrates) Arctic sea ice melting and, 166 formation of, 159, 162 as fuel, 173 melting of as climate forcing, 162-63, 256 climate recovery time following, 164 and end-Permian extinction, 149-50 and inertia, 274 ocean circulation patterns and, 163-64,235,259 as tipping point indicator, 276 and 21st-century climate, 258-59 recharging cycle of, 163 Michaels, Pat, xvi, 12 Middle Pliocene epoch, sea level in, 141 Mikulski, Barbara, 66-68, 100 Millikan, Robert, 88-89 mining, environment damage from, 176-77,184--85, 245-46, 248-49 monarch butterflies, efforts to save, 271-73 Morgan, Hannah, 244-66 Morrell, Paul, 134 Mould, David, 126-27, 128, 134 mountain glaciers, recession of, 98, 165 Muskie, Edmund, 217 Nader, Ralph, 195 NASA censorship of employees, 124-64 earth science budget, slashing of, 135-66 graduate traineeships, xiv and Hansen, efforts to isolate, 34, 68 mission statement, 129, 135, 136-37 Office of Public Affairs, Bush ad ministration takeover of, 94, 110, 134-35 policy on global warming, 77-79 unwillingness to address climate change,91 warnings to Hansen, 96 National Academy of Sciences, 40, 56-58,168 National Aeronautics and Space Act, 134 National Public Radio (NPR), 110, 125,128-29,151 Natural Resources Defense Council, El Nino/La Nina, 4,106f, 108,121-22 nitrous oxide atmospheric levels, in Holocene era, 45 as climate forcing, 6f, 9, 49 Nixon, Richard M., 198-99 nonprofit organizations, political real ism of, 241 North Sea flood of 1953, 257-58 Norton, Gale, 1 NPR. The critics, I said to the woman, the reporters, the city council members, the unions, the 'opposition'-they are no more monolithic, no more evil, than the people right there in the conference room. See bin Laden, Bakr London, attack in, 317 al-Madani, Shafiq boat naming after, 81-82 death of, 81-82 soccer and, 81 Maghrigh (sunset prayer), 18 mahram (traveling companion), 105 Al-Majlis Al-Afriiki Ta'leen Alkhaas (African Council for Special Teaching), 95 marriage(s) of Abdullah, 127-28, 294 annulled, of Osama, 293, 309 arrangement of, mothers for, 12-13 of Atef's daughter, 271-73, 278 of al-Attas, Allia, 8, 40, 291, 301 of al-Attas, Muhammad, 168, 291, 301 begging women v., Frances Beinecke October 2009 New York 0 A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER t isn't often that the Pentagon, the U.S. Depart ment of Commerce, the United Nations, the Na tional Academy of Sciences, the European Union, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Intel ligence Council, and the Shell Oil Company agree on anything. After 30 Unintended Consequences the laws passed the Council of Representatives, they were sent to Iraq's three-man presidency council* individually for signa ture. As required by Con gress, the National Intelligence Council published an unclassi fied version of its just completed National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) assessment of Iran's nuclear program. I have also made use of articles, interviews, and reports on the web sites of the United States Institute for Peace, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Brookings Institution, and the American Enterprise Institute. When I told Les why Attorney General Spitzer considered 'Greenberg the most powerful businessman in the world and his Council involvement 12 Fallen Giant was one reason,' Les was quiet for a minute then said, 'I am blushing.' A very significant player with the Council on Foreign Relations and others.' Like Starr, Raven was a bull on Shanghai, and he frequently was elected as one of the two American members of the Shanghai Munic ipal Council. The members of the council (some 25 insurers) had agreed not to try and lure me away, something that AIG, naturally, ignored. 134 Fallen Giant Leslie Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, told me about his working relationship with Greenberg, who was vice chairman of the council. Greenberg is a leader in the nonprofit community, including chairing the Asia Society and serving as vice chair of the Council on Foreign Relations. See also General Re Foley, Pat, 115,139 Fort Bragg Chronicle, 20 Fortune, 41,164 France, 53 Freeman, Doreen, 60, 62 Freeman, Houghton (Buck), 30, 41, 46, 53, 60 AIG's reentry to China and, 109, 110 Chinese Communists and, 60-63 Evan Greenberg and, 35 Freeman Foundation and, 197 injapan,63-64 Joukowsky and, 26,28 World War II and, 47 Freeman, Linda, 62 Freeman, Mansfield, 29-30, 48, 55, 57,99 Freeman Foundation, 197 Frenkel, Jacob, 185 Freudmann, Axel, 34 Friedman, Tom, 35 Fritz, Mark, 48-49 Futter, Ellen, 11 G Garnett, Elinor, 66 Gelb, Leslie, 11-12,134 224 Index
General Re, 2,158-159,164-165, 176-178 Germany, 48-50,53 Gibbons, David, 86 Globe & Rutgers Fire Insurance Company, 82-83, 91 Golf, at Morefar,148-149 Golub, Aaron Richard, 180 Gould, Randall, 40,45,46,60-61 Graham, Robert D.,184 Grasso, Richard, 2, 3 Greenberg, Corinne Zuckerman, 95 Greenberg, Evan, 35, 156,167,194 Greenberg, Jeffrey, 144,156,167, 196 Greenberg, Maurice Raymond (Hank): AIG Board ousts, 3-4,10-11,155, 162,165-166,202 AIG in China and, 108-112 AIG managed by, 4-9,21,30-31, 33-34,49,88,142-145 American Home Assurance Company and, 83-84, 97-98 background of, 95-96 celebrity of, 1-2,154-155 character and personality of, 54, 129-134,136-137,156 Egyptand,125-126 international contacts of, 10 joins C.V. Starr & Co., 96-97 legal and public relations strategies of, 183-185,195-197 Morefar and, 149-150 New Hampshire Insurance Company and, 84 portrait of, at Council on Foreign Relations, 11-12 post-AIG activities of, 185-188, 194-201,203-204 Spitzer's charges against, 2-3, 12-13,155,162-163,172-178, 203 Starr compared to, 153-154 succeeds Youngman, 78, 99-105 succession planning and, 166-168 'three 15s' of, 8, 156 Turkey and, 125 United States Life Insurance Co. and, 39 Youngman and, 96-99 Guzzardi, Walter, 170 H Haass, Richard, 12 Harness, Jack, 149 Harrington, Michael, 147-148 Helms, Richard, 139 Highley, Charles, 22 Hill, Jesse, 123-124 Hills, Carla,161,165 Holbrooke, Richard, 11, 157,161, 167 Howell, Jack, 112,139 Hsu, Singloh, 24 Hsu, T.C., 24, 71, 102,149 Hughes, G.M. 'Barney,' 58 Hurd, Victor, 103-104 I Igaya, 'Chick,' 102 India, 142 Insurance Company of the State of Pennsylvania, 83 Insurance industry: finite risk and, 87 kidnapping and ransom insurance, 7 OSS and, 48-50 political risk and, 36 surplus line writing, 84 underwriting cycle of, 6 Inter-Hemispheric Insurance Company, 87,157 International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC),143 Iran hostage crisis, 115-120 J James Nelson Realty Company, 19-20 Japan: AIU in,53,57-59,63-64 China occupied by, 45-48 Johnson, Joseph C.H.,86-87 Joukowsky, Artemis, 24-28, 53, 68, 99, 103,142-143 Joukowsky, Artemis II, 25-28, 99 Joukowsky Family Foundation, 197-198 K Kanak, Donald P, 167-168 Kann, Peter, 197 Kidnapping and ransom insurance, 7 Kissinger, Henry, 197 Kluge, Constantine, 67-68 Korea, 124-125 L Latin America, 51-52, 80-81, 113-115 Lee, Duncan, 79-80,94-95 Lefevre, Louis, 122-124 Lexington Insurance Company, 84 Ley, Daniel, 71 Lindsay, John, 140 Long Yong-ru,111 Lookout (Hong Kong house), 147, 150-151 Lohman, Stanley, 108 Luce, Henry, 36 M MacArthur, Douglas, 58 Madame Butterfly, 72-73 Manton, Jimmy, 53,107-109, 113-114,135 Mariani, Angelo, 140 Marsh & McLennan,156,162 Index 225 Matthews, Edward, 169,187 Maurice R. and Corinne P Greenberg Family Foundation, 198 McMorris, Clare Tweedy, 67, 69, 93, 105 McMorris, Howard, 69 McNutt, Paul, 55 Metropolitan Land Co., 39 Mexico, 114-115 Middle East, 54 Miles, George L., 31 Miller, Bob, 59,61 Mills, Howard, 87,172 Milton, Christian, 184-186,203 Miner, Charlie, 63 Monrad, Elizabeth, 184 Morefar (Brewster, NY, house), 147-152 Morrison, Samuel Eliot, 45 Morse, Ken, 108 Morvillo, Robert, 2 Moszkowski, George, 25,51-52 Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 118 Mt. But the increase will remain largely theoretical until Congress actually passes its budget for those years. Here's how to reach them: Congressman Bobby Rush 2416 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 Phone: 202-225-4372 Fax:202-226-0333 BLOCKING TOYS THAT POISON CHILDREN I 281 Senator Daniel Inouye 722 Hart Building Washington, DC 20510-1102 Phone: 202-224-3934 Fax:202-224-6747 Senator Mark Pryor 255 Dirksen Senate Office Building Washington, DC 20510 Phone: 202-224-2353 Fax:202-228-0908 The hard part will be getting President Bush to sign the bill after it passes. On the night of the government shutdown, he rounded on Armey: 'If your budget passes, thousands of poor people are going to suffer because of your Medicaid cuts. That generation lacks `achievement motivation, vision of opportunities, sense of discipline, work ethic commitment, and self esteem' that one generation passes on to another in a motivation and progressive society.'' DANGEROUS BUSINESS ALSO BY PAT CHOATE Hot Property: The Stealing o f Ideas in an Age o f Globalization Save Your Job, Save Our Country (with Ross Perot) Agents o f Influence: How Japan's Lobbyists in the United States Manipulate America's Political and Economic System The High-Flex Society: Shaping America's Economic Future (with J. K. Linger) America in Ruins: The Decaying Infrastructure (with Susan Walter) Being Number One: Rebuilding the U.S. Economy (with Gail Garfield Schwartz) DANGEROUS BUSINESS
THE RISKS OF GLOBALIZATION FOR AMERICA




PAT CHOATE








Al f red A. Knop f - New York = 2008 THIS IS A BORZOI BOOK PUBLISHED BY ALFRED A. KNOPF Copyright ® 2008 by Manufacturing Policy Project All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Alfred A. Knopf, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and in Canada by Random House of Canada Limited, Toronto. Although such concentration can achieve great economies of scale in production, lower costs, and increase profits, these cartels also set worldwide prices, divide markets, keep out new entrants, and slow innova- INTRODUCTION t 17 ] tion. Today, under this nondisclosure policy, China could theoretically gain control of a significant portion of the companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange and no U.S. officials would know. Most believed they CORPORATISM 1 51 ] would not be hired by the new contractor, and if they were their pay and benefits would be reduced. Selling state assets to pay for current consumption is attractive to politicians who seek office on a 'no-new-taxes' pledge. President George W Bush has 'solved' the same 'No new taxes' problem by borrowing massively from the central banks of China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. If a developer identified a new route that might generate large toll revenues, TxDOT could authorize the project, use its quick-take powers to buy the land, and [ 66 ] Dangerous Business then give a private corporation a fifty-year lease to design, finance, build, operate, and profit from a new toll road. By channeling TxDOT's monies to finance general government, Perry was able to keep his 'No new taxes' political pledge, lower spending on new construction, and build a political demand for toll roads. If Texas communities wanted 1 76 ] Dangerous Business new roads to relieve congestion, Perry announced, the communities would be required to either raise local taxes or accept toll roads. Seven months later, the task force recommended that the House exclude media accounts as a basis for ethics complaints, largely because many prior filings had 88 1 Dangerous Business resulted from stories published by newspapers such as The Wall Street Jour nal, The New York Times, and The Washington Post. The Path to Globalism Four PARADISE: CREATED AND LOST Globalism is nothing new. The company needed more factories, some of which would be located in countries where demand was exploding, and it required additional capital to finance those new facilities. Among other provisions, the three governments agreed to: 1 126 1 Dangerous Business • Create a new North American regime of U.S.-style protections for intellectual property (patents, trademarks, copyrights, trade secrets). FRIEDMAN I (MILTON) [ 127 J Equally important, NAFTA was conceived as a new laissez-faire tem plate that the U.S. government would try to impose on all of SouthAmerica as the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas. Six FRIEDMAN II (THOMAS) While Milton Friedman provided the intellectual energy for our second era of 'globalization,' New York Times foreign affairs columnist Thomas L. Friedman has helped popularize it worldwide in his writing and speeches. When an American firm tries to beat one of these cartels in its own market, the Europeans or Japanese dump cheap goods until the new entrant is either destroyed or, if it survives and prospers, is invited to join the cartel. In 1995, President Clinton issued Executive Order 12958, SOVEREIGNTY [ 165 1 which introduced a new procedure called 'automatic declassification,' under which classified information is routinely declassified after twenty five years unless special action is taken by the administering agency to keep it secret. The 2004 New York Times forty nine-part series °Making Votes Count' by Adam Cohen summarizes the best of these ideas. A new spirit of public service and new people in the civil service would do much to restore competence in public programs and respect for the U.S. government. By innovation, I use the definition of James E. Malackowski, the founder of Ocean Tomo, a Chicago-based patent-consulting firm, who describes it as 1 198 1 Dangerous Business 'the design, invention, development and/or implementation of new or altered products, services, processes, systems, organizational structures, or business models for the purpose of creating new value for customers and financial returns forthe finn' Ocean Tomo reports that as the U.S. economy has increasingly become driven by knowledge and innovation, rather than production and manu facturing, intellectual capital has 'emerged as the leading asset class.' Resources Science, & Administration Transportation 1 Franks, Robert D. Healthcare Institute Budget Transportation & Public Works & of New Jersey Infrastructure Transportation Firm's Former Client Members of Count U.S. Congress Employer Committee 1 Committee 2 Committee 3 Committee 4 Committee 5 21 Funderburk,David Perennial Strategy Economic & Interior &Insular Small Business Group Educational Affairs Opportunities 3 Gephardt, Richard Gephardt Group Permanent Select Budget on Intelligence 16 Gibbons, Sam M. Gibbons & Co. Joint Taxation Ways & Means 1 Glickman, Daniel R. Motion Picture Permanent Select Judiciary Agriculture Science Assn. The New Prince Behind the Oval Office Bum Rap on America's Cities FLEECED How Barack Obama, Media Mockery of Terrorist Threats, Liberals Who Want to Kill Talk Radio, the Do-Nothing Congress, Companies That Help Iran, and Washington Lobbyists for Foreign Governments Are Scamming Us ... 6 The New Lobbyists: Peddling the Agendas of Foreign Governments, Oppressive Dictators, and Foreign Corporations to the U.S. Government and the American Public ................................ Lyndon Johnson, empowered first by a national outpouring of grief and guilt after John F. Kennedy's murder and then by a massive electoral victory in 1964, moved quickly to pass JFK's civil rights bill and then implemented 16 I FLEECED a program of domestic spending to combat poverty that he'd envisioned ever since his days as a New Deal congressman from a poor district in Texas. Each of these strands contains 280 separate wires, all of which would have to be cut' The paper quoted Matthys Levy, a structural engineer at Weidlinger As sociates in New York and an author of the appropriately titled book Why Buildings Fall Down: How Structures Fail, as saying 'think of the time it would take to cut through [the cables].... The New York Times' columnist Paul Krugman piled on in his November HOW THE LIBERAL MEDIA DOWNPLAY TERRORISM I 57 6, 2006, column. As Pasquale J. D'Amuro, former assistant director in charge of the FBI's New York office, has pointed out, by the time such a terror plot has matured it's often too late to stop it. It would be far simpler to enter a facility such as Fort Dix, the 14,000 soldier New Jersey army base, and use automatic weapons to mount a HOW THE LIBERAL MEDIA DOWNPLAY TERRORISM I 65 killing spree, than to bring down the Brooklyn Bridge. Indeed, it might be wise to look across the ocean at the United Kingdom 76 I FLEECED to find additional safeguards that we may profitably use to stop terrorism from hitting new targets in the United States. Shortly after taking office, the new British prime minister, Gordon Brown, announced a series of new steps to battle terror, which he said would help Britain 'confront a generation-long challenge to defeat Al Qaeda-inspired terror violence.' I 91 • Designating the Port Angeles Federal Building in PortAngeles, Wash ington, as the Richard B. Anderson Federal Building • Commending the West Virginia University Mountaineer football team for exemplifying the pride, determination, and spirit of the Mountain State and overcoming adversity with skill, commitment, and teamwork to win the 2008 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl • Honoring the Texas Water Development Board on its selection as a recipient of the Environmental Protection Agency's 2007 Clean Water State Revolving Fund Performance and Innovation Award • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 10799 West Alameda Avenue in Lakewood, Colorado, as the Felix Sparks Post Office Building January 29 • Commending the Louisiana State University Tigers football team for winning the 2007 Bowl Championship Series national championship game • Passing the New England National Scenic Trail Designation Act • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 2633 11th Street in Rock Island, Illinois, as the Lane Evans Post Office Building • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1300 North Frontage Road West in Vail, Colorado, as the Gerald R. Ford, Jr. Post Office Building • Commending the University of Louisville Cardinals football team for their victory in the 2007 Orange Bowl 92 I FLEECED January 30 • Calling on the United Kingdom to establish a full, independent, and public judicial inquiry into the murder of Northern Ireland defense attorney Patrick Finucane • Honoring the life of Percy Lavon Julian February 6 • Commending the Houston Dynamo soccer team for winning the 2007 Major League Soccer Cup • Recognizing the significance of Black History Month • Remembering the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster and honoring its crew members, who lost their lives on January 28, 1986 February 7 • Calling for a peaceful resolution to the current electoral crisis in Kenya • Congratulating Lee Myung-Bak on his election to the presidency of the Republic of Korea and wishing him well during his time of tran sition and his inauguration on February 25, 2008 February 12 • Honoring the life of senior Border Patrol agent Luis A. Aguilar, who lost his life in the line of duty near Yuma, Arizona, on January 19, 2008 • Commemorating the courage of the Haitian soldiers who fought for American independence in the Siege of Savannah and for Haiti's in dependence and renunciation of slavery • Celebrating the birth of Abraham Lincoln and recognizing the prominence the Declaration of Independence played in the develop ment of Abraham Lincoln's beliefs s THE DO-NOTHING CONGRESS IS STILL DOING NOTHING! I 93 February 13 • Supporting the goals and ideals of National Engineers Week • Congratulating the National Football League champion New York Giants for winning Super Bowl XLII and completing one of the most remarkable postseason runs in professional sports history February 14 • Passing the American Braille Flag Memorial Act • Commending the people of the State of Washington for showing their support for the needs of the State of Washingtons veterans and encouraging residents of the other states to pursue creative ways to show their own support for veterans • Honoring African-American inventors, past and present, for their leadership, courage, and significant contributions to our national competitiveness • Supporting the goals and ideals of National Salute to Hospitalized Veterans Week • Supporting the goals and ideals of American Heart Month and Na tional Wear Red Day • Making technical corrections to the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act February 25 • Expressing support for the designation of the week of March 3-7, 2008, as School Social Work Week to promote awareness of the vital role of school social workers in schools, and in the community as a whole, in helping students prepare for their future as productive citizens • Supporting the goals and ideals of Career and Technical Education Month 94 1 FLEECED • Honoring the service and accomplishments of Lieutenant General Russel L. Honore, United States Army, for his thirty-seven years of service on behalf of the United States February 28 • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service known as the Southpark Station in Alexandria, Louisiana, as the John 'Marry' Thiels Southpark Station • Designating the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 116 Helen Highway in Cleveland, Georgia, as the Sgt. 100 I FLEECED • National Funeral Director and Mortician Recognition Day • Tribute to Dr. Michael Debakey • Tribute to Louisiana World War 11 veterans • Small Business Week • Commending Morrison Chevrolet dealership in Maine • Recognizing the Greater Philadelphia Association of Realtors • National Adopt a Library Day • Designating a post office in Port Jervis, New York as the Arthur Gray Post Office Building (and many other namings of post offices that are too numerous to mention) • Honoring the life and extraordinary contributions of Diane Wolf • Congratulating Iowa State University of Science and Technology on its 150 years of leadership and service to the United States and the world as Iowa's land-grant university The list goes on. 6 THE NEW LOBBYISTS: Peddling the Agendas of Foreign Governments, Oppressive Dictators, and Foreign Corporations to the U.S. Government and the American Public Saudi Arabia*t China Libya* Azerbaijan Iraq* Taiwan Iran* United Arab Emirates Dubait Pakistan* Qatar Israel Abu Dhabi Turkey Venezuela* Palestine* Sudan* Countries on the U.S. State Department Travel Warning List. Even when the United States has no diplomatic rela tionship with a particular country, that doesn't stop any foreign govern- THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 119 ment from bypassing the State Department and taking its case right to our lawmakers to get what it wants. Translation: THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 121 Airbus won by hiring well-connected American lobbyists. As the Times noted, the Airbus contract 'breaks a relationship that has lasted decades with Boeing, which had built the bulk of the existing tanker fleet and had fought hard to land the new contract.' THE NEW LOBBYISTS 1 123 In addition to the company's own employees at EADS and Airbus, eight other lobbying firms were retained by Airbus/EADS in 2007. THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 125 This proliferation of lobbyists for foreign countries and companies raises a serious public policy question: Why do we permit any foreign gov ernments to lobby our own government? Why do we permit our bureau cracy and Congress to spend their valuable time catering to the whims of foreign interests? VIO widely distributed propaganda materials describing the great THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 127 works of Chavez and the charitable largesse of his state-owned oil company, Petrbleos of Venezuela-including developing extensive voter registration projects and increasing the democratization of the press. Peculiarly, though, when Kelley, Drye submitted its Lobbying Registration Form for Petrbleos, it THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 129 claimed that no foreign entity held 'at least 20% equitable ownership in the client.' In his brilliant expose, published in Harper's, Silverstein describes con- THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 131 tacting two of the most powerful lobbying firms in Washington, APCO Worldwide and Cassidy & Associates. THE NEW LOBBYISTS 1 133 At the center of the web of companies currently in demand by foreign interests are several firms with close ties to Mark Penn, Hillary's longtime chief strategist who was forced to resign his position in early April after he was caught advising the Colombian government about how to get Congress to pass a free trade treaty that Hillary Clinton (and her labor supporters) fiercely opposed. The number of Burson- THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 135 Marsteller clients-both corporations and foreign governments-that have an interest in the next administration is staggering. At the same time that Burson-Marsteller was lobbying for the Armeni ans and Mark Penn was actively involved in her presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton became one of the thirty-two Senate cosponsors of the con troversial congressional resolution to declare that the Turkish killings of THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 137 hundreds of thousands of Armenians from 1915 to 1923-at the end of the ottoman Empire-was genocide. The firm and its subsidiary BKSH's recent foreign clients have included: • SpinMaster Toys, the Canadian distributor of the Chinese manufactured toys that were coated with a chemical that disinte grated into the date rape drug GLIB (the toys have since been recalled by the U.S. Product Safety Commission) • CNOOC, the Chinese national oil company that was unsuccessful in its bid to buy the American corporation Unocal, the ninth-largest oil company in the world • Iraq • Greece • Cyprus • Liberia THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 139 • The Russian Information Office • Taiwan And that's not all. And Hillary's political director, Harold Ickes, has his own lobbying firm, Ickes and Enright, which specializes in representing New York entities that L 140 I FLEECED are looking for earmarks, such as the Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem, which received a more than a million dollars in Clinton earmarks. Again, it's puzzling that a man like John McCain, who has always railed THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 141 against lobbyists and special interests, would surround himself with lobby ists at the highest level of his campaign. 142 I FLEECED The new lobbying contracts aren't necessarily limited to a specific issue or a specific bill. THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 143 It was a worthy piece of legislation. Unlike in previous years, it noted, there had been no new reports of death THE NEW LOBBYISTS I 145 squads. 7 THE DUBAI-I NG OF AMERICA An authoritarian, anti-Semitic, antiwoman, antiworker nation is masquer ading as a modern, sophisticated, cool new destination for tourists, while using its vast petrowealth to buy up large stakes in American companies. But before long someone in South Dakota said, `Hey if that's the case, why don't we change our usury laws and allow higher rates? After all, it might bring employment to South Dakota from the big banks in New York. The New York Times writes about the change in the unions' attitudes: 'For years, the unionized teaching profession opposed few ideas more ve hemently than merit pay, but those objections appear to be eroding as TEACHERS ARE LEAVING-T00 MUCH STRESS, T00 LITTLE PAY I 183 school districts in dozens of states experiment with plans that compensate teachers partly based on classroom performance.' The New York Times reports that private groups are also involved in pro- TEACHERS ARE LEAVING-TOO MUCH STRESS, TOO LITTLE PAY I 185 moting merit pay. Now that women have other options, our local school districts must be attractive to new teachers or they'll soon be unable to staff their class rooms. Asking new teachers to wait in line behind senior faculty for pay raises will alienate the teachers the districts need to keep, driving them out the school door in droves. Even though many of the homes that are rebuilt with our tax money are luxurious second or vacation beach homes that have been flooded or even washed away at least once be fore, the government still comes up with new money to rebuild them again and again. But, as the Associated Press has reported, 'when the storm surge from Hurricane Ka trina breached levees in New Orleans, thousands of homeowners outside the 100-year flood plain who lacked flood insurance suddenly found their dwellings under water for the first time.' Flocking to Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, they suddenly needed new homes-and, having made a killing in the go-go world of mergers and acquisitions of the 1980s and the Internet bubble of the 1990s, it seemed that many could afford them. Once the scam artists moved in, they offered a new kind of deal, one many people couldn't refuse: 1. But-and here's the catch-if any of these new borrowers defaults, it will be we, the American taxpayers, who foot the bill. 246 I FLEECED LENDERS Although many mainstream banks made subprime loans-Citigroup and Lehman Brothers actually set up subprime subsidiaries-most of the mort gages flowed through nonbank lenders such as New Century Financial, Ameriquest, Option One, Countrywide, and Ocwen Mortgage Solutions. We described how Fannie Mae uses the implied, but not legally binding, federal guarantee of its debt to generate low-cost capital to buy up mortgage loans so as to let banks make new loans in the housing market. The Herald Tribune reports that Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jer sey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have all 'rolled out mortgage pro grams intended to refinance loans by homeowners at risk:' But these measures will help only hundreds of homeowners, a few thousand at best. 312 I NOTES 5 $30 billion: Stephen Labaton, 'Bankruptcy Bill Set for Passage; Victory for Bush,' The New York Times, March 9, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/03/09/business/09bankruptcy.html? NOTES I 315 51 'it is too hot': Author's interview with New York Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly, June 2007. 195 'included fighters of Al Qaeda': William Glaberson, 'Pentagon Study Sees Threat in Guan- NOTES I 327 tanamo Detainees,' The New York Times, July 26, 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/07/26/ 257 'In [this] combat environment': Eric Schmitt and Ginger Thompson, '$6 Billion in Con- NOTES I 333 tracts Reviewed, Pentagon Says;' The New York Times, September 21, 2007, www.nytimes NOTES 1 335 273 Nord also opposed: Stephen Labaton, 'Strengthening of Consumer Agency Opposed By Its Boss,' The New York Times, October 29, 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/10/30/washington/ THE RIGHT NATION CONSERVATIVE POWER IN AMERICA John Micklethwait AND Adrian Wooldridge PENGUIN BOOKS PENGUIN BOOKS Published bythe Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, NewYork, NmYork 10014, U.S.A. Penguin Group (Canada), IoAkornAvenue, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4V 382 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc) Penguin Books Ltd, So Strand, London WC2R oRL, England Penguin Ireland, 25 St Stephelts Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division ofPearsonAustralia Group PryLtd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, D Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi-no 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), CoxAirborne and Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196,South Africa Penguin Books Ltd Registered Offices: 8o Strand, London WC2ROIL, England First published in the United States ofAmerica by The Pen guin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 2004 Published in Penguin Books 2005 to 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Copyright @JohnMicklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, 2004 A8 rights reserved THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGED THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS: Micklethwait, John. There is a frontier spirit to the Right-unsurprisingly, since so much of its heartland is made up of new towns of one sort or another. Two-thirds of all partial-birth abortions are committed in New Jersey! The shooting of four students at Kent State in May 1970 may have inspired Neil Young to song, but a week later blue-collar America cheered when a group of hard-hat union construc tion workers in New York beat up a group of antiwar demonstrators. 7 Nixon shared Ike's Europe-first internation alism and his belief that the job of Republicans was to manage the New Deal 70 • THE RIGHT NATION better than the Democrats, but he took a more liberal stance on social issues. Here, at last, was a Democrat-or rather a New Democrat-whom middle-class America could support. Even 100 • THE RIGHT NATION though Bush's approval rating reached 91 percent (in the spring of 1991, as the returning troops marched past him down Pennsylvania Avenue), his chances of a second term were wrecked by two new political animals: a new breed of highlypartisan Republican in Congress and a new breed of centrist Democrat in the country. Bush had jumped from one side of the divide (denouncing Reagan's 'voodoo economics' in the 198o cam paign) to the other ('Read my lips: No new taxes' in 1988). Small businesses were the ones pumping out new for It0 • THE RIGHT NATION THE FIFTY-FIFTY NATION, 1985-2000 • III jobs in the 19gos, and the Democrats had hoped to woo them, tagging the Republicans as the party of big business. Clinton routed Bush by promising a more active government; Gingrich routed Clin ton by promising a more limited one 59 Yet after all this turmoil the fifty-fifty nation finally rediscovered its balance-in the form of a New Democratic president hemmed in on all sides by a Republican Congress. In introducing his new appointees to the public, he never praises their academic credentials or their intellectual creativity. The Fabian pamphlet was one of their hallmarks; they established periodicals like the New Statesman, set the agenda on numerous parliamentary committees and founded the London School of Economics and Political Science. But the Right is clearly extending the battle of ideas into new territories, just as Milton Friedman and others did in economics forty years ago. 'The media is kind of weird these days on politics, and there are some major institutional voices that are, truthfully speaking, part and parcel of the Republican Party,' Gore grumbled to the New York Observer. Visit a I66 • THE RIGHT NATION Democratic senator's office and you are as likely to find copies of Policy Review and the Weekly Standard as the New York Review of Books and the Nation. 170 - THE RIGHT NATION This new establishment has much the same weaknesses that its liberal equivalent developed in the t96os and 1970s. Critics whisper that the conservative think tankers have become more interested in peddling ideology than in generating new ideas. AJew ish kid who was born in Los Angeles but grew up in New York, he annoyed 180 • THE RIGHT NATION his Democratic parents by working for John Lindsay's Republican campaign for mayor of New York in 1965, though he immediately regretted not sup porting William F. Buckley's quixotic conservative challenge and became active in Buckley's Young Americans for Freedom. Bush put the brakes on 'the Clinton environmentalist bandwagon,' creating fewer new national parks, allowing snowmobiles to creep back into Yellowstone, trying to open up the Arctic Refuge to oil drilling and encouraging the Pentagon to get an exemp tion from the Endangered Species Act (to let the armed forces use its ranges more freely). And how exactly should this new democratizing America deal with some of its less savory allies in the war against terror, such as Pakistan and Russia? To many foreign observers, the neocons seemed interested only in democratizing countries that could threaten Israel. In the wake of the terrorist attacks Of Sep tember ti George Bush began to create a new foreign policy establishment, and the neoconservatives are firmly part of it. Four out of every five new jobs in America is created by a small business. New Orleans, Memphis and Nashville all have their fair share of honky-tonk women:'? driving 264 • THE RIGHT NATION through Cajun country in 2003, one of us saw a sign advertising that a 'New shipment of girls arrived yesterday.' 'Question: Why Don't Women Get to the Top?' asked the cover of a lengthy study in the New York Times Magazine in October 2003: `Answer: BecauseThey Don't WantTb.'5 The New York Timer is often just as leftish as the British Guardian or the French Le Monde. New York is by some measures safer than London (although those measures ignore murder). New Labor has thoroughly revamped one of the oldest parts of the British constitution, the House of Lords. Calvin Colton, a Briton who visited America in the I83os, noted that the separation of church and state had given rise to 'a new species of social organization before unknown in history'' In America vol untary organizations took on functions that, in Europe, were performed either by the state or by state-financed churches. The mystical visions of the New Testament about forgiving people their trespasses has held less appeal than Old Testament pragmatism; if you do bad things, bad things happen to you. Lord Percy of New castle, a conservative minister of education in the 1930s, once explained his opposition to newfangled ideas for improving education: 'nonsense, non sense; a child ought to be brought up to expect unhappiness. It is not jfB • THE RIGHT NATION unusual for some maverick to cause unexpected turbulence for the front-runner in the primaries: John McCain did it spectacularly in New Hampshire in 2000. Even in Rumsfeld's supposed loyal 'New Europe,' 70 percent to 8o percent of Hungarians, Czechs and Poles opposed an American war in Iraq.' Lewis L. Gould, Grand Old Party: A History of the Republicans (New York: Random House, 2003), p. 360. Wade, 28, 65, 1 49,308,309 - 10,311 Roman, James,125-26 Roman Catholics, 147,148, 236, 325, 326, 337 Roncalio, Term, 400 Roosevelt, Eleanor, 44 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 53,57,90,92, x21, 231, 235, 237, 258, 323, 327, 385 Holmes on, 91 Hopkins and, 173, 173,356 New Deal of, see New Deal Roosevelt, Theodore, 140, 227, zz8, 306, 362 Roth, William, 89 Rousselot, John, 61 Rove, Karl, 16 ,35 - 39, 1 34, 1 38, 1 43,147, 156, 159,x62,173-75,x85,195,197 1 97, 2 0 0 , 2 08, 228 - 29,233,237,262,337 California and, 265 College Republicans and, 278-79 Patrick Henry College and, 1 93 Israel and, 209 Kerry and, 362 McKinley and, 228 small businesses and, x76 Rubel, Cy, 87 Rubin, Robert, 156 Rumsfeld, Donald, 36,7o, x33,143,151, x60, 200, 395 H. Chsxmn and, 364-65 GuantSmamo Bayand, 395 Iraq and, 155, 2x8, 219, 220,394 terrorism and, 211,218 Rusher, William, 51, 82, 92 Russia, 216,222,293 Ryan, George, 368,370 Satiate, Larry, z33 Sachs, Jeffrey, 372 Saddam Hossein, 96,155,197,200-204,2o6, 2x6,217,2x9,220,223,229,246,389,394 capture of, 221, 360 September D and, ziS-16 Satire, William, 165 Sahatori, Henry, 87 Samaritan Project, 186 Samuelson, Paul, 48 Sanchez,Tony, 366 Sanders, Bernie, 358 San Francisco, Calif, 242, 375 - 78, 379, 384. ALSO BY ROBERT J. SAMUELSON The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement, 1945-1995 Untruth: Why the Conventional Wisdom Is (Almost Always) Wrong THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH RANDOM HOUSE NEW YORK ROBERT J. Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York RANDOM HOUSE and colophon.. What this means is that changes in ideas, institutions, values and beliefs can alter the way the economy works just as much as-and sometimes more than-new technologies, changes in prices or shifts in interest rates. The 'new capitalism' con trolled inflation in part by breeding anxiety that kept wages and prices in check. What will replace it? Globalization seems threatening to many Americans, as does the new capitalism. He feared that, faced with a pro posal to raise taxes, Congress might instead cut spending on his new social programs. So the farmer would buy a new one. New assumptions emerged. This commitment, reached at an international conference in 1944 at 59 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, aimed to make the dollar suitable as international money to be used for foreign trade and to settle debts among nations. A country with generous un employment insurance, for example, might have a higher 'natural rate' than one with stingy insurance: Unemployed workers in the first would have less reason to take new jobs they didn't like. Defeating inflation required a new 'political environment.' The Fed had to provide the money to pay for the new benefits. It is necessary to understand why the Fed was so vulnerable to these new pressures. If rural banks withdrew their deposits from New York City banks, those banks would cut their overnight loans ('call loans'), which were widely used to buy stocks. When pressed for funds, 88 The Money Connection commercial banks could borrow from one of the twelve regional Federal Reserve banks, receiving a new form of paper currency, Federal Reserve notes. The removal of these limits created an entirely new situation, requiring new understandings and obligations. Tom Wicker, a well-known columnist for The New York Times, had written in 1977 that the government should relax its 'reliance on indirect fiscal and monetary policies' in controlling inflation. The fear-and reality-of bank runs caused banks to curb new loans, which worsened the economy and dampened depositors' confi tot THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH dence. Construction starts of new homes in 1982 were 40 percent below 1979 levels. In 1962 he moved to Washing ton to work for Robert Roosa, his boss at the New York Federal Reserve and Kennedy's undersecretary of the Treasury for monetary affairs. In 1975, he was named (at Arthur Burns's urging) president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The son of a pro fessional city manager-of Teaneck and Cape May, New Jersey Volcker had shuttled between government and the private sector. Unable to find a replacement for Blumenthal among outsiders-Carter had asked Reginald Jones, head of Gen eral Electric, and David Rockefeller, head of Chase Manhattan-he selected G. William Miller, the ex-chief of Textron, a New England conglomerate, who had been Fed chairman since 1978. t The relationship between a given amount of bank reserves and a sub 121 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITs AFTERMATH When announced, the Fed's new procedure was widely seen as a capitulation to 'monetarism'-the view, championed by Milton Friedman, that the Fed could prevent inflation and minimize reces sions by increasing the money supply by a modest and predeter mined amount every year, say 3 percent or 4 percent, which theoretically would permit noninflationary economic growth. The company survived only by shuttering its farm equipment business and concentrating on trucks under the new 129 THE GREAT INFLATION. He'd been un able to find new work. Volcker has said he had promised his wife (who remained living in New York) not to take a third term, but many top administration officials wanted him gone. But it also bred a new set of discon tents, because it seemed-to many-more crass and cruel. We now talk rou tinely of corporate 'downsizing,''restructuring' and 'outsourcing' all words and phrases that barely existed before 1980J These euphemisms for shutting, selling or streamlining business operations and, in the process, firing workers, relocating them or pushing them brusquely into early retirement-depict a new managerial sensibil ity Of course, people were fired before 1980. Perversely, this new social contract became a conveyor belt for higher inflation. The first accepted social responsibili ties, while the second 'repeated free market rhetoric and denied any commitment to a broader group of stakeholders:' wrote Ernie En glander of George Washington University and Allen Kaufinan of the University of New Hampshire. Finally, they could pay for most new investments with re tained profits and depreciation, as opposed to borrowing from banks or selling stock. They controlled new technologies, because only they could muster the resources to hire the required engineers and 149 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH scientists, undertake research and development and build new plants. He contended, for example, that entrepre neurs-individuals who invent or commercialize new technologies, products or services-were economic relics. Other countries might have erected new controls.25 'Today, at my daughter's middle school in New Jersey, an investing club is busily educating future market wizards, but in the '70s, through four years on an Ivy League campus, I didn't hear a men tion of the stock market.' Under the new order, economic growth was chancy. Companies could not flourish just by producing qual ity products at low cost, or by excelling in research and develop ment, or by expanding into new markets. Firms also had to overcome what Grove called 'strategic inflection points'--a new label for 'creative destruction.' Strategic inflection points are new products, technologies or management methods that alter 'the way business is conducted.' Containerization had harmed some ports (New York, San Fran cisco) and helped others (Seattle, Singapore) that adapted faster. That was the implicit promise of the old economic order; it wasn't of the new. Having spent long careers at the company, they were 175 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH torn between new pressures and old norms. The new order often seems obsessed with money to the exclusion of all other values. It is easy to caricature the new order as the triumph of profit maximization, CEO enrichment and the culture of efficiency, and as 176 Precarious Prosperity such, it often seems a step backward. Peace of mind was part of the postwar living standard, and the new order seems to relegate it to a lowly place, if not ignore it altogether. Older workers were also increasingly affected, and once people lost their jobs, finding new ones was harder, according to studies by Robert G. Valletta of * As previously noted, the U.S. economy may have entered another re cession in late 2007 or 2008. Whether they always achieved their intended results is unclear, but they reflected a new moral code. In the new, it was often flaunted as a badge of success.? 183 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH 11 Still, the discontents with the new economic order do not mean .' The labor market has not yet shattered into a merciless free-for-all, with most people regularly pitched out and constantly needing new jobs. They might be better labeled 'the moderate risk shift,' because the old order never achieved uni versal protections and the new order has not entirely abandoned collective protections. In 2008, the Federal Reserve struggled to defuse a new type of financial crisis. A plethora of new taxes, spending programs and regula tions, each of which may seem justifiable or involve a small cost, could coalesce into a much larger burden. A second danger arises from bigger federal budget deficits, which would (in theory) raise interest rates and 'crowd out' private investment in plants, equipment and new technologies. The 'new' world economy lacks this cohesion. A rescue effort, organized by the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. government, provided new credit and avoided a global recession. Between sixty-five and the new eligibility age, most people would be re quired to pay for Medicare or demonstrate that they had equivalent private coverage. The rein vestment of huge trade and oil surpluses has created new financial powers. In 2007, Congress passed legislation requir ing automakers to raise the average fuel efficiency of new vehicles from twenty-five miles per gallon (including cars, SUVs and light trucks) to thirty-five miles per gallon by 2020. Technology was reaching its limits; so there were few new companies or giant pro jects. It is human nature to generate new needs and wants. A century ago, the struggle was to come to terms with new indus trial enterprises-railroads, steel mills, slaughterhouses, oil refiner ies-whose very size seemed to contradict the premises of our democracy, because they represented the sort of concentrated power that Americans instinctively abhorred and opposed. It is a massive system of trial and error that creates new technologies, products and forms of organization and markets. Before the Fed began operations in 1914, most bank reserves were held either as vault cash or, in the case of smaller banks, as deposits at larger banks in major cities, such as New York and Chicago. The twelve Federal Reserve banks are located in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Minneapolis and San Francisco. Tobin, New Economics, 57. For the Coke episode, see Robert J. Samuelson, 'The Sovereign Consumer,' in Untruth: Why the Conventional Wisdom Is (Almost Always) Wrong (New York: AtRandom.cotn Trading 289 Notes Places: How We Allowed Japan to Take the Lead (New York: Basic Books, 1988),2. For the college-high school wage gap, see Sheldon Danziger and Peter Gottschalk, The American People, Census 2000: Changing Fortunes, Trends in Poverty and Inequality (New York: Russell Sage Foundation; and Washington, D.C.: Population Ref erence Bureau, 2005),20. See Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Ford, Gerald, 49,70-71 foreign direct investment (FDI), 162,163 Frank, Robert, 211 Franklin, Ben, 86 Freeman, Orville, 96 frictional unemployment, 58n Friedman, Benjamin, 213 Friedman, Milton, 72, 73, 76, 115, 167, 171 full employment and Fed, 79,80-81 initial definition, 47,71 as political and economic goal, 47-50, 54, 57, 59,60, 63, 69 role of incomes policies, 97 G Galbraith, John Kenneth, 44,149,150-51, 153,154,167,210-11,212 gasoline prices 2004-2008 increases, 17-18n and Middle East oil supply, 16-17 Gates, Bill, 151 GDP See Gross Domestic Product (GDP) General Motors, 168-69,170 German hyperinflation, 21 Gerstner, Louis, Jr., 155 global warming, 205,206,226,237-41 globalization confusion of domestic versus international influences, 223-24 currency issues, 8,163-64,222,222n, 224,225 dangers, 221-22 as economic boom, 244-45 as economic influence, 12,13-14 history, 157 and inflation, 8 international capital flows, 162 overview, 156-65 recommended approach, 233-37 as threat to economic growth, 209,221-25 vacuum of power, 225 GNP See Gross National Product (GNP) gold, 59-60,84-85, 86,98n, 99,120 gold cover, 89n gold standard, 83, 87, 89, 90, 102, 159, 199, 254-55 Gonzalez, Henry, 113 Goodfriend, Marvin, 128 Gordon, Kermit, 52,53 Gosselin, Peter, 187,271 government regulation, 152,171 gradualism, 66-67, 68 Gramley, Lyle, 129 Great Depression as demarcation point, 139-40 Federal Reserve role, 101-2 glossary definition, 255 as history, 44-45 influence on economists, 55 leads to more government intervention, 247 role of gold standard, 83 secular stagnation theory, 243-44 Great Inflation causes, 247, 248 304 Index defined 11-12, 255 Federal Reserve role, 75-76, 78, 101, 102-4 as history, 43-44 homebuying as insurance against, 22-23 issue in 1980 election, 26-27 lessons for today, 203-7 role of economists, 42-44 as self-inflicted wound, 18-19,207 statistics, 22, 23, 27, 28 Great Moderation, 179,193-94,198,199, 202 See also business cycles Great Society, 16, 65-66 greenbacks, 85 Greenspan, Alan, 79, 136, 171-72, 201 Greider, William, 34,39n, 134,271 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) defined, 255 statistics, 1950-2007,259,261-66 Gross National Product (GNP), 56n Grove, Andrew, 169-71 H Hacker, Jacob, 186-87 Haldeman, H. R., 67 Hamer, Alvin, 243-44 happiness, 211-12 Harris, Seymour, 52 health care, 216-17, 231 health insurance, 147, 148,185, 186,187, 191,232 See also Medicaid; Medicare Heller, Walter, 51-52, 54, 58, 61, 94 Hewlett-Packard, 151 housing connection of collapse to Great Inflation, 7, 28 impact of securitization, 38 increase in prices, 5-6 mortgages, 219,220 subprime mortgages, 6-7,195,199, 206n,221,228 Hume, David, 76 hyperinflation, 20-21 1 IBM, 155 immigration, 191-92,242-43 incomes inequality, 8,180-81, 188-93 in new economic order, 176 incomes policies, 97, 126 inequality, income, 8,180-81,188-93 inflation as afterthought, 65, 66, 67 attempts to legislate, 229 benefits of taming, 13 5 5-38 under Carter, 23-24,39-40,66,69-70 Consumer Price Index as indicator, 12 cost-push versus demand-pull, 57 defined,12,255 economic explanation, 145 under Ford, 70-71 Friedman's view, 76,171n and globalization, 8, 157, 158 impact on exchange rate, 153 impact on people's lives, 19-21 under Johnson, 15-16,94-96 Keynes's view, 21-22 need for controlling, 10, 227-29 under Nixon, 67, 68 outside U.S., 41-42 under Re agan , 5, 26-27, 41, 106-7, 109, 110-11,115,123-24,127-33 relationship to capitalism, 145-46,166 relationship to employment, 71-73, 97, 137n-138n relationship to productivity, 28-29, 31 role in economics of last half-century, 4-11 as self-fulfilling, 74 statistics, 1950-2007, 259, 2616 See also double-digit inflation; Great Inflation Intel, 169,176 interest rates impact of inflation, 31-37 impact on business, 131-32 prime rate, 32 305 Index interest rates (contd): raising to prevent higher inflation, 172-73 S&L crisis, 32-33,37 statistics on ten-year Treasury bonds, 1950-2007,260,261-66 using to control money supply, 122-23 International Harvester, 129-30 International Monetary Fund (IMF),120 Internet, 12, 13, 30, 144 Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC), 108,152n investment banks, 6, 195, 197, 228, 235 Iran-Iraq War, 17 Iraq War, l In J Jackson, Andrew, 86 Jacoby, Sanford, 146 jawboning, 94, 96 jobs. See Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) natural rate of unemployment, 73, 73n, 256-57 new economic order characteristics, 176-77 compared with old order, 176,177-78 conflicting wants, 202 and economic growth, 168 evolution, 144,155 and income inequality, 188-93 andjob insecurity, 184-88 leading economic philosophers, 167 moral ambiguity, 183 paradoxes, 178-83 relationship to old order, 184-93 new economics (Keynesianism), 51, 61, 62-63,71,80,83,144 See also Keynes, John Maynard new economy vs. new economic order, 144 Niskanen, William, 115 Nixon, Richard and Federal Reserve, 91,103-4 gradualism policy, 66-67 progressive project, 140n view of unemployment, 49 and wage-price controls, 67-68,69,91, 98-99 nominal values, defined, 257 Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU), 73n, 257 O oil, 13, 14, 15, 16-17, 42, 48, 69, 72, 223, 224 See also energy prices Okun, Arthur, 55,138n old order, 177-78 See also new economy Olney, Martha, 219 Only the Paranoid Survive (Grove), 169-70 open market operations, defined, 257 Orphanides, Athanasios, 80-81, 271 output gap, 81 P Partee, Charles, 132 pattern bargaining, 109,148 pawnbrokers, 219 Pax Americana, 222 PCE Price Index, defined, 257-58 pension benefits. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Over the past two years the group, whose initials stood for Association of Com munity Organizations for Reform Now, had a new cause foreclosures. The EESA bill that President Bush signed does not create a new govern ment agency. 31 $700 BILLION BAILOUT Under the guise of the $700 billion bailout bill, the U.S. government is now partly nationalizing some of the largest banks in the land-Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo-even if they don't want the government's money. Welcome to the new capitalism. The new law opens up the floodgates for the U.S. Treasury to purchase any type of delinquent mortgage (and the bonds made from them), including alt-A mortgages (similar to subprime but the customer had a higher credit rating), payment option ARMS (also called the 'I'll cry tomorrow' mortgage because to keep monthly payments low homeowners have 35 $700 BILLION BAILOUT the option of adding on to their actual debt), and even home equity loans or second liens. These phrases might sound like Latin to the typical consumer, but basically they mean the government will rewrite loans that are worth saving by reducing the loan amount and writing a brand-new mortgage insured by the government's own mort gage insurance company, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). Therefore, a basic question that consumers and our elected lead ers face is: Are Bank of America, CitiMortgage, Wells Fargo, and Chase too big to fail just the way Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were? There is a new definition for liquidity in the United States (as it applies to 43 $700 BILLION BAILOUT companies, including banks), and it goes something like this: A business is liquid (solvent) as long as investors are willing to lend money to it. I've already gone over this turf a bit, but what if you're a new mortgage customer and want to buy a house? This is where it gets tricky. A few stark facts of the new lending landscape are taking shape: • The days of easy credit are over. A year ago 79,000 people used down payment assist ance (DPA) plans to purchase homes, most of them in new develop ments. How many times during the housing boom do you remember sitting around with your neighbors having a beer or coffee, asking these two 53 $700 BILLION BAILOUT questions: 'How can they pay so much for that place?' and 'Who's buying these houses?' To some of us living in New York, California, Las Vegas, or the greater Washington, D.C., area, the stellar increases each year seemed unfathomable. Following is a sample of hot (and once-hot) vacation mar kets that could suffer over the next five years: • Orlando, Florida • Las Vegas, Nevada • Duck, North Carolina • The New Jersey shore • The Hamptons • Rehoboth, Delaware
60 Where to Put Your Money Now
Cape Cod Lake Tahoe Vail, Colorado Fill in the blank yourself. Even if gasoline continues to fall in price, families with kids won't be buying brand-new Chevy Tahoes anymore to cart their broods around. Many Republican members of Congress, already behind in tough reelection 73 $'700 BILLION BAILOUT bids, voted no. President Bush, whose popularity with the American public was reaching new lows every day (because of the economy, oil prices, and the war), was pushing hard for the bill, but the GOP rank and file were trying to unlink from the president. At first it looked as though the bill would pass, but then the vote count changed and quickly the 'sell' orders began to tumble in, creating a new crash on Wall Street. 185 About the Author Paul Muolo is co-author of Chain of Blame: How Wall Street Caused the Mortgage and Credit Crisis (John Wiley & Sons, 2008) as well as Inside Job: The Looting of America's Savings and Loans (HarperCollins, 1991), a New York Times best seller. Over the years his articles have appeared in Barron's, the Sunday New York Times, the Washington Post, EuroMoney, Playboy, and other publications. With their new, modified Scuds (which they called 'al-Husseins'), the Iraqis could rain down missiles on Tehran unimpeded. These unsatisfying results would soon set Saddam looking for new prizes that would afford him the glory he felt he deserved but had been denied. The Reagan administration's groundbreaking efforts to open up relations with Iraq had been uneven, but the new Bush administration saw them as promising. Although only two days later he met with a delegation 32 IRAQ AND TIIE I:NITED S'I'A'I'EF of five U.S. senators led by Bob Dole, who assured him that the United States wanted good relations with Iraq, the evidence appears to be that Sad dam had already decided that the United States was playing a two-faced game with him: claiming to want good relations while secretly working to undermine him and lay the foundation for a new Israeli strike. Meanwhile, new sources of oil in Alaska, the North Sea, and the for mer Soviet Union were driving down the price of oil, which fell from The Worn, Turns 33 $22 per barrel in January to $16 per barrel in June. Containment and Beyond 65 The new Clinton administration took office without the baggage of Presi dent Bush's failed efforts to oust Saddam and with little desire to focus on Iraq. The doves had pushed back with a new vari ant on the old geopolitical thinking that had led the Bush administration to refrain from supporting the Iraqi intifadah. The doves pointed to the changing attitude of the French, who were increasingly anxious to ease sanctions on Iraq, and the new Russian 72 IRAQ AND IIIE I NITED S'I'A'1'ES leadership, which was uncomfortably close to Saddam.' Although the Iraqis had hoped that they would be able to charm a new UNSCOM chairman as they had initially fooled Ekeus (until 88 IRAQ AND THE I NITED Sl'A'I'RS the revelations of Hussein Kamel's defection), they soon realized that, if anything, Butler was going to be tougher than Ekeus. The Iraqis had always tried to intimidate or trip up the inspectors, but in 1997 their bullying reached new heights. Annan also agreed to new, re stricted procedures for the inspection of eight huge 'presidential' sites eo IRAQ AND IIAE cNITED STATES where the inspectors believed that Iraq was storing materials related to its clandestine WMD programs. This seemed to convince others in the ad ministration that while my views were hawkish (and therefore accorded with their new interest in regime change), I was also realistic about how to accomplish regime change. Certainly no member was willing to impose new sanctions on Iraq or those countries helping them to violate the sanctions. Accordingly, Iraq began talks with the new Syrian regime of Bashar al-Asad. Initially, the Bush team 106 IRAQ AND 'rHE CVITBD SPATES wanted to have its Iraq policy review completed in a matter of weeks, but it quickly became clear that it would need a much better understanding of the multiplicity of issues involved and much more staff work to develop new options. By the summer of 2001 it had become clear that the administration was not going to pursue a radically new approach to Iraq. A new type of shortening distributed by the government stuck to the throat and made people sick.... Likewise, expired medicines were repackaged and sold as new. Many of the fifty new palaces Saddam has built for himself since the Gulf War have gold-plated faucets and artificial rivers, lakes, and waterfalls that employ pumping equipment that could have been used to address the country's desperate water and sanitation problems.' More likely, they will continue to fight on, accepting support from whatever quarter will provide it and hoping that at some point they will find an opportunity to install a new government in Baghdad that will not repress them but will instead give them their fair share in the governance of the country. He is the new Nebuchadnezzar, the Babylonian king who conquered biblical Israel, sacked Jerusalem, and took the Jews into captiv ity. He is al-Mansur, the caliph who built Baghdad and conquered new lands for Islam. He is the new Saladin, the Islamic general who defeated the Crusaders and retook Jerusalem for Islam. His troops had shown almost no ability to deal with the new Iranian human-wave attacks, 154 1RkQ ronNY and he believed his survival was at stake. Saddam believed that if he could get the Israelis to follow through on this threat, it would start a new Arab-Israeli war that would convince the Aya tollah Khomeini to call off his invasion and make common cause with Iraq against Israel.' Signs of Life The continuing liberalization of the oil-for-food program and the mounting erosion of the sanctions are threatening to breathe new life into Iraq's The Threat 107 armed forces, particularly its crippled logistical sector. UNSCOM discovered a secret Iraqi Scud engine plant still in operation in 1995, leading it to conclude that Iraq may have been building new missiles even as UNSCOM destroyed its old ones. SIX The Regional Perspective T he final pieces of the Iraq policy puzzle that remain to be discussed are the views of Iraq's neighbors and the other states of the Middle East, whose support will be critical to any new U.S. policy toward Iraq. In part, this is a result of growing literacy and the spread of new forms of media such as the Internet and satellite TV stations, which provide Arab populations with far more information than was ever the case in the days when their governments had a monopoly on sources of information. Thus, in the end, it would be difficult for Kuwait to oppose Saudi wishes: if the Saudis reject a new U.S. policy on Iraq, we should not expect the Kuwaitis to approve it. If we and the Saudis press them to back an invasion, they will support that too-although, like the Saudis and Kuwaitis, they are unlikely to back an open-ended war with Iraq and will be loath to support limited military operations as part of a new 194 IRAQ 'roDA)' containment strategy. But after the fall of Saddam, they would work as hard as they can to undermine our presence in Iraq, carve out buffer zones for themselves among the Shi'ah, hamstring our efforts to build a new government, and try to gain as much influence over the new government as they possibly can. Consequently, London would very much like to have a clear green light from the United Nations before launching into new military operations against Iraq.' Under those circumstances, all would be likely to provide some support to the campaign itself and proba bly economic and political assistance in building the new Iraqi government afterward. This mistake would need to be cor rected, ideally in a new resolution authorizing member states to en force the new sanctions by all necessary means-the original language of UNSC Resolution 678, which authorized the use of force before the Gulf War. Thus, for political and not necessarily legal reasons, if we are going to return to a multilateral effort to contain Iraq, it would behoove us to have a new resolution making such authorization plain in order to restore the international consensus on the use of force to compel Iraq's compliance with the new sanctions. Saddam would see the new U.S. sanctions as both a threat and an opportunity-a threat because the United States would be trying to fill the gap left by his destruction of the U.N. system, an op portunity because the mere fact that the United States could not get the United Nations on board for these new measures would be seen as a demonstration that international opinion now supported the lifting of all sanctions, allowing Iraq to paint the United States as isolated and unilater alist. Saddam would no doubt try hard to challenge the new U.S. initiative however he could to undermine it before it could take hold. In the case of UNMOVIC, the new commissioners will have the added author ity to review its work and reports. The Erosion of Containment 235 This raises a critical problem with any new inspection regime: the French, Russians, and Chinese are never going to allow it to come into con flict with Iraq. In the mid-1990s, the Iraqis were continuing to work on new biological and chemical agents and to refine their ballistic missile programs. Thus, even if we could get a new inspection regime as good as the old one, we now know that it still would not be enough to stop Saddam from developing WMD. The United States could build a new containment regime centered on a set of punishing secondary sanc tions that imposed real costs on those who buy Iraqi oil illegally and sell 242 1 HE OPTIONS Baghdad prohibited military and dual-use items. Rather than allowing us to commit only minimal assets to ensure that Sad dam cannot threaten the region again, thereby leaving us mostly free to pur sue other foreign policy interests, a new containment policy would consume ever greater assets and make it harder for us to pursue other foreign policy interests by stirring up international opposition to the United States and its policies. In particular, would he act aggres sively in the mistaken belief that his nuclear weapons would deter an Amer ican or Israeli nuclear response? Then the question might he whether we would be willing to risk sacrificing New York-or Tel Aviv, or the Saudi oil The Dangers of Uenerrence 251 fields-to save Kuwait or Jordan or Syria. Indeed, this was the cornerstone of the er roneous judgment of the U.S. intelligence community (but not that of my fellow military analysts and myself) that Saddam would lick his wounds for a while after the Iran-Iraq War and would not engage in any new foreign aggression.' His track record argues that if we allow him to acquire nuclear weapons, we are likely to find ourselves in a new crisis with him in which we will not be able to predict what he will do, and his personality and his history can only lead us to expect the worst. The Iraqis would themselves work out a new government, and the United States could avoid the problem of what to do with Iraq 'the day after' Saddam is removed. If we go to our allies in the region, having had so many previous efforts fail, in the aftermath of September 11, and after all of the Bush administration's rhetoric about regime change in Iraq, and we tell them that all we want to do is to start a new effort to mount a coup in Iraq, our allies are likely to conclude that we are still not serious and we never will be. Our regional allies fear that a new U.S. Nevertheless, according to senior U.S. and Israeli officials, Jerusalem has told Washing ton bluntly that should the United States attack Iraq, the only thing that would prevent Israel from retaliating against Iraq-and thus creating a new Arab-Israeli war-would be the presence of large numbers of U.S. ground forces (basically a division) deployed in western Iraq to try to prevent Iraqi Scud launches. We would still have to help build a new Iraqi government out of the chaos that would follow Saddam, a process that could be made far more difficult if we used opposition groups to over throw him because they would want to create a new government that fa vored their own aspirations. Should the United States launch a new war against Iraq to topple Saddam's government, it would be the most important foreign policy initiative of the United States for the next decade if not longer. Although an invasion might increase anti-American sentiments in the Arab world in the short term, over the long term it would remove an important source of anti-Americanism (the con frontation with Saddam) and potentially turn it into something positive, if the United States were to build a strong, prosperous, and inclusive new Iraqi state. Most of the Guards were sim ply plucked from other units at the end of the Iran-Iraq War to create the new, elite Republican Guard, and the principal reasons they fought and died at the 73 Easting, Madinah Ridge, and other insignificant battlefields of the Gulf War seems to have been largely out of esprit and professionalism. For these reasons, an invasion of Iraq would require a new coalition to support it-one that could be as small as just the GCC states, Turkey, and Egypt but that would preferably be as large as we could make it. A new resolution would change the nature of the endeavor completely, eliminating virtually all diplomatic problems. SOS along with a new inspection regime for some period of time, just to fore stall the invasion and buy time in the expectation that the United States would eventually become distracted by other events, allowing Iraq to start cheating again. Once 200,000 or more American troops were lined up on his doorstep, he undoubtedly would signal a new willingness to accept the U.N. inspec tors. It would be a tragic mistake if we were to remove the threat of Saddam only to create some new, perhaps equally challenging, threat in Iraq following his demise. To the extent that these groups did 'cooperate' in a new federal structure set up by the United States before our troops (or those of a small multinational follow-on force) departed, their intent would be threefold: (1) to prevent their rivals from Rrbai/ding Iraq 391 gaining control of the federal government, (2) to try to gain control of the federal government themselves to increase their own power, and (3) to use their participation in the federal government to secure as much of the coun try's resources for themselves as possible. Only with a new Iraqi government that respects international law and abides by its international obligations could we have confidence that Iraq would not revert to the path laid out by Saddam Hussein. Nevertheless, there is no reason that Iraq must adopt a full-blown West ern system of democracy, rather than creating a new Arab-style pluralist 402 THE apTIoNs state. In Bosnia, these efforts included modernizing agriculture, reviving and reforming education, restoring health care (including by rebuilding hospitals and modernizing equipment and practices), repairing infrastructure, building and repairing housing, restoring sanitation and sewage services, restructuring and reforming the 406 THE OPTIONS police force, establishing the rule of law, training lawyers and judges, building political parties, promoting transparency and accountability in governance, restoring and modernizing the energy sector, promoting the adoption of international standards of accounting, developing a regulatory banking system, privatizing industry, creating capital markets for invest ment, providing loans for the start-up of new companies, and building an independent media and other political institutions. However, it would be invaluable to have Iraqis actively participating in day-to-day administration of the country as well as in building the processes that would eventually produce a new Iraqi government. Other societies have instituted only limited amnesties, believing that victims must be able to seek justice within the new political and legal system or they will pursue it outside of the system. How long would Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Jordan, Turkey, or six dozen other countries actually respect such new measures? Would we 414 CONCI,GSIONS measure their adherence to a new containment regime in months, weeks, or just days? Their behavior gives no reason to expect them to make good on new pledges, nor is it even clear what kind of pledges we could get from them. Their work was outstanding, and on several occasions the information they uncovered opened up entirely new paths for me. and Efraim Karsh and Inari Rautsi, Saddam Hussein: A Political Biography (New York: Free Press, 1991). At tacks Industrial Site Near Baghdad; MiG Downed as Gulf Allies Display Might,' The Washington Post, January 18, 1993, p. A l; Michael R. Gordon, 'Iraq Appar ently Rebuffs Allies on Missiles Deployed in South,' The New York Times, Janu ary 8, 1993, p. A l. As one example, see Gregg Easterbrook, 'Smart Bomb: The Case for an Ameri can Osirak,' The New Republic, February 25, 2002. NO] LS 461 March 2002; telephone interview with Phillip Verleger, April 2002; interview with Michael Weinstein, New York, N.Y., March 2002. Nicholas Birch, 'Iraq's Kurds Aren't Looking for a Fight,' The Washington Post, May 5, 2002, p. B3; John F. Burns, 'Kurds, Secure in North Iraq, Are Cool to a N O'1' E S 469 U.S. Offensive,' The New York Times, July 8, 2002; Sally Buzbee, 'Iraqi Kurds Worry That U.S. Invasion Could Lead to Backlash from Saddam,' Associated Press, May 27, 2002. For concurring views, see Roberta Cohen and Michael O'Hanlon, 'Send Stronger 'Stability Force' to Afghanistan,' The Baltimore Sun, June 14, 2002; Editorial Desk, 'Afghanistan at Risk,' The New York Times, March 27, 2002, p. A22; Michael Elliott, 'The Battle over Peacekeeping,' Time, March 4, 2002, vorES 471 pp. 31-32; Richard Holbrooke, 'Rebuilding Nations . All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada Song lyrics from 'I-Feel-Like-I'm-Fixin'-To-Die Rag' words and music by Joe McDonald Q 1965 Alkatraz Corner Music Co., BMI, and from 'An Untitled Protest' words and music by Joe McDonald © 1968 Joyful Wisdom Music Co., BMI. 4 VAR MADE EASY 'It seems that Johnson made the statement not because he had new evidence,' McPherson points out, 'but because a key liberal, John Bartlow Martin, had returned from Santo Domingo that after noon and had made the same assertion in a press conference.'' She has WAN MADE EAS Y described the reaction this way: 'Though both citizens and outsiders condemned the invasion, public opinion polls indicated that the immense majority in the United States supported their president, sat isfied with the way in which he crushed this new upsurge in revolu tionary activity.' With a Panama dateline the day after Christmas 1989, one New York Times story led off this way: The United States military headquarters here, which has por trayed General Manuel Antonio Noriega as an erratic, cocaine- 10 WAR MADE EASY snorting dictator who prays to voodoo gods, announced today that the deposed leader wore red underwear and availed himself of prostitutes. The resolution also conferred on Noriega the names 'chief of govern ment' and 'maximum leader of national liberation'-a fact that Quigley saw as significant: 'The pronouncement about a state of war was a basis for giving General Noriega these new titles. ' 7 ^ The tone of much of the coverage gave new meaning to the term witch hunt. The New York Times [November 6, 1983] wrote that the administration put out `deliberate distortions and knowingly false statements of fact.' As a new employee, Ellsberg 'watched and marveled. Three years after the New Republic called for boosting U.S. military aid to Saddam GG WAR MADE EASY in 1987, the influential magazine altered a cover photo of the Iraqi dictator to make his mustache look more like Hitler's.' The new president's verbal emphasis on This Is about Human Rights 77 human rights was soothing, and not without substance; the Carter administration sometimes exerted pressure on regimes to release polit ical prisoners and halt abuses. In January 1982, New York Times journalist Ray Bonner reported on a massacre of hundreds of children, women, and men in El Mozote This Is about Human Rights 79 carried out by the elite Salvadoran, U.S.-trained Atlacatl Battalion. 'First the Portuguese colonists, then the South Africans in pursuit of regional dominance, then the U.S. in the name of anti-communism created and nourished Savimbi and his Unita,' journalist Victoria Brittain wrote in the New Statesman. (Less widely publicized was Henry Kissinger's comment quoted in the New York Times on January 19, 1971: 'Power is the great aphro disiac.') The Truman Doctrine and the Johnson Doctrine are only extensions of the Monroe Doctrine, new embodiments of that Mani fest Destiny to which our expansionists appealed in a less cautious day. In late April 2004, even while some polling indicated that most people in the United States would favor the idea of sending more U.S. troops to augment the 135,000 already in Iraq, an editor of the New Republic was citing poll data that showed 'a record 65 per cent believe the level of American casualties in Iraq is 'unaccept able.''' As it happened, Mike Wallace's chilling report from Saigon went 102 %X %R MADE EASY on the air just three days before a gathering of Americans, estimated at up to three hundred thousand or more, marched against the war through streets of New York City. That same 103 104 \F'AR MADE E kSF day, the front page of the New York Times reported: 'President John son has ordered retaliatory action against gunboats and `certain sup porting facilities in North Vietnam' after renewed attacks against American destroyers in the Gulf of Tonkin.' The New York Times proclaimed that the president 'went to the American people last night with the somber facts,' while the Los Angeles Times urged Americans to 'face the fact that the Communists, by their attack on American vessels in international waters, have themselves escalated the hostilities.' 120 NX%R MADE EA~i Chris Hedges covered the Gulf War for the New York Times. 'NATO began its second month of bombing against Yugoslavia today with new strikes against military targets that disrupted civilian electrical and water supplies'-the first words of the lead article on If This War Is Wrong' th e M edia Will 'fell I Is 121 the New York Times front page the last Sunday in April 1999 accepted and propagated a remarkable concept, widely promoted by U.S. officials: The bombing disrupted 'civilian' electricity and water, yet the targets were 'military.' De Gaulle's new overture had come on the heels of similar proposals-also without preconditions from the Soviet Union and from U.N. Secretary-General U Thant. 16 188 WAR MADE EASY Seven years after the Gulf War-with anticipation running high for a new assault on Iraq during the first weeks of 1998-tidy euphemisms such as 'collateral damage' returned to airwaves and print. After disbanding Saddam Hussein's army, the Pentagon tried to build a new one, but a year into the occu pation the recruit numbers were low-just 10 percent of the 40,000 target level. At the core of the war's long-term lack of via bility (or 'winnability') was the hollowness of Washington's claims, not the least of which were the pretensions of benevolence and zeal to foster a new democratic government for the benighted land. 14 In mid-spring 2004, USA Today readers encountered this front-page story: 'Only a third of the Iraqi people now believe that the Ameri can-led occupation of their country is doing more good than harm, and a solid majority support an immediate military pullout even America Needs the Resolve to Kick the 'Vietionn Svodrome' 215 though they fear that could put them in greater danger, according to a new USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll. In other words, the new Iraqi government would be praised as the embodiment of Iraqi sovereignty while the U.S. military would continue to do whatever Washington wanted it to America Needs the Resolve to Kick the 'Vietnam Svndrome' 217 do in Iraq-including order the Iraqi government's military around. He talked about 'real dialogue between our military commanders, the new Iraqi government and, I think, the United States mission as well.' On the day before the story appeared about the impending self-rule, all those editors needed to do was read the front page of their own newspaper-an article reporting that 'the Bush administration's plans for a new caretaker government in Iraq would place severe limits on 218 WAN NADF: EAS1' its sovereignty, including only partial command over its armed forces and no authority to enact new laws.'' But at his July 28 press conference in 1965, Johnson denied that the new troop deployment he was announcing represented a significant shift. 25) Former Colombian diplomat Clara Nieto wrote in her book Masters of War (New York: Seven Sto ries Press, 2003) that Bennett 'had sent a hysterical communique to the State Department alleging that the lives of United States citizens were in danger and requesting that troops be sent to insure their evacuation.' Richard Goodwin, New York Times, February 8, 2004. (Noam Chomsky, Deterring Democracy [New York: Hill and Wang, 1992], p. 72) 24. Omitted are a few pertinent facts, among them: that there had been no prior free elections because of repeated U.S. interventions, including long sup port for the murderer and torturer Trujillo until he began to interfere with U.S. interests; that the `lifelong Marxist' advocated policies similar to those of the Kennedy Democrats; that the U.S. was instrumental in undermining him and quickly backed the new military regime; that when the populace arose to restore constitutional rule in 1965, the U.S. sent 23,000 troops on utterly fraudulent pre texts to avert the threat of democracy, establishing the standard regime of death squads, torture, repression, slave labor conditions, increase in poverty and mal nutrition, vast emigration, and wonderful opportunities for its own investors, and tolerating the `free election' of 1966 only when the playing field had been lev eled by ample terror.' 198): 'Ironically, Ellsberg sin gled out two of the worst 1990 offenders: the New York Times and the Washing ton Post'-the first two newspapers to publish the Pentagon Papers in 1971. E Stone, Polemics and Prophecies, 1967-1970 [New York: Vintage Books, 1972], p. 79) Giving new meaning to the term 'happy warrior,' Vice President Hubert Humphrey talked about the Vietnam War to the U.S. embassy staff during a visit to Saigon: 'This is our great adventure, and a wonderful one it is.' (New York Times, July 2, 2004) 13. President Lyndon Johnson, July 28, 1965, quoted partially in Daniel Ells berg, Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers (New York: N otes to P ages 64-70 259 Viking, 2002), p. 94, and in Daniel C. Hallin, The 'Uncensored War': The Media and Vietnam (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989), p. 60. New York Times, September 15, 2001. (Howard Bray, The Pillars of the Post [New York: W. W. Norton, 1980], p. 150) 69. Chris Hedges, War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning (New York: Anchor Books, 2003), p. 34. When Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was getting ready for crucial testimony before con gressional committees about sexual abuse and torture at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, the New York Times reported (May 7, 2004): 'To help prepare, Mr. Rumsfeld was consulting with a range of trusted outside advisers, including his former chief spokeswoman, Victoria Clarke.' (Norman Solomon, The Power of Babble [New York: Dell, 1992], p. 89) Even presidents have fallen short in the manhood department. When President Clinton failed to follow the advice of journalists demanding that the Pentagon bomb Iraq in November 1998, the New York Post scornfully editori alized that he had not been able to 'act like a man.' And the NewsHour did not provide any explanation for why, in sharp contrast to the flat-out report in the New York Times that 'the paper did not print any calls for attacks,' Lehrer had gone on the air and claimed that it did. That was very much in keeping with what the April 5 New York Times reported-that while 'the American authorities said false reporting, including articles that ascribed suicide bombings to Americans, could touch off violence,' nevertheless 'the paper did not print any calls for attacks.' James Baldwin, No Name in the Street (New York: Dial Press, 1972), p. 188. See military contractors weapons of mass destruction, 8 Bush administration claims about, 57-58,59-60,181 false informant on, 61 as Iraqi invasion rationale, 52, 53, 72,73 Iraqi invitation to inspect, 49-50 media coverage of, 58-60 New York Times acknowledged misleading coverage of, 60-61 Pentagon disinformation on, 56-57 Powell concession on existence of, 182 Powell's convincing U.N. speech on, 45-47 public misperceptions about, 154 U.N.inspectors and, 31-32,47-50, 52,57-59 U.S. aid in amassing, 114 Weekly Standard (magazine), 147, 170,172 Wessin y Wessin, Elias, 6 Westin, Av, 141 Westmoreland, William, 36, 65, 101, 155, 157, 218 What Every Person Should Know About War (Hedges), 94,193, 212 Wheeler, Earle, 105, 106 Whitbeck, John V, 175 White House tapes, 2, 39-40 Wiesel, Elie, 70 Will, George, 47-48, 159-160, 161, 215-216,230 Williams, Bryan, 144 Wilson, Woodrow, 40 WMD. BITTER FRIENDS, Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation BOSOM ENEMIES Barbara Slavin r, ST. MARTIN'S GRIFFIN M NEW YORK For Michael, Andrew, and Didi BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES. It was New Year's 1987, near the climax of the Iran-Iraq war, and Iraqi officials had taken a group of foreign correspondents to an island in the Shatt al-Arab, the narrow waterway dividing the two countries. Even the mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, after listing a long cata log of U.S. abuses, confided that he had visited New York twice and said, 'I like your Broadway Street.' My next trip, in 1998, fol lowed an Iranian election in which the regime favorite had suffered an ignominious defeat and a reformist new president, Mohammad a BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Khatami, was trying to liberalize his country and repair relations with the West. Prodded by Pres ident Kennedy, the Iranian leader also sought to show he could be a modern monarch by introducing new social reforms, including voting and other rights for women. BOSOM ENEMIES out new feelers to Washington in hopes of using their leverage in Iraq to strike a broader deal. The Europeans had delayed making an offer in hopes that Raf sanjani, the pragmatic ex-president, would win a new four-year term in Iran's June 2005 elections: But Rafsanjani lost to Ahmadinejad, a hard-liner with no experience in foreign affairs, and Iran rejected the European offer as insufficient and vague. The United States also said it would consider allowing the Europeans to sell Iran IRAN AND THE BOMB 27 civilian power plants containing U.S. technology and new airliners to replace Iran's decrepit stock. But the regime's view changed during the Iran-Iraq war, and Iran soon found new suppliers. During the war he graduated to the Revolutionary Guards, a military organization created to protect the new government, because Iran's Islamic rulers did not trust the loyalty of the regular armed THE BLACKSMITH'S SON 47 forces. Meanwhile, a new political faction emerged among middle-aged and young conservatives. Rumors spread that the new mayor was such an Islamic hard-liner that he had suggested separate elevators for male and female government employees. In June 2006, Khamenei named a new body, headed by a former foreign minis ter, to advise him on foreign policy-another pointed rebuke to Ah madinejad's cabinet. Saeed Laylaz, a columnist for Shargh and deputy interior minister under THE BLACKSMITHS SON ss Khatami, said of the new chief executive, 'He behaves like a rebel, not a president. BOSOM ENEMIES everywhere, and New Yorkers are no exception,' he declared. The first prime minister after the fall of the shah, a Western-educated Is lamicist named Mehdi Barzargan, urged that old laws be followed until new ones could be passed, but an assortment of revolutionary organizations sprang up that became laws unto themselves. Under a deal orchestrated by Rafsanjani, a new constitution was written that elimi nated the prime minister's job and gave executive powers to the presi dent. Connections that worked when one faction was in power become worthless when a new group ascends to office. The new bosses stripped away the top layer of the bureaucracy but had to be taught by the career civil servants who remained how to 'write budgets, to keep the national ac counts and to negotiate foreign trade agreements.' But on a frosty morning in Febru ary 2006, he was experiencing something new and, he said, unnerving entering the private precincts of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Made up of conscripts as young as ten or eleven recruited around the nation GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION 87 from rural areas and urban mosques, the Basij used these youngsters as unarmed cannon fodder in a new kind of warfare in which thousands swarmed across minefields to overwhelm Iraqi forces with human wave attacks. Iran's new government also had excellent relations with the Palestine Liberation Organization, which had bases in Lebanon and provided training to several hundred future as BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Guards before the revolution. Instead, the Israelis fostered a new and more potent enemy. The party also organized relentless attacks on Israeli soldiers and their Lebanese allies that led Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000 and in spired a new Palestinian uprising in the West Bank and Gaza later that year. The killings ap peared meant to show Iranians that they should not get too hopeful that their new president would change the way Iran was ruled. BOSOM ENEMIES those hotels and to present a new and moderate image of Iran to the outside world. A Western diplomat in Tehran told me that Khatami had refused to at tend a lavish farewell party for Rafsanjani because the new president was appalled at the expense. Not satisfied with court cases and impeachment proceedings, THE REFORMERS us Khatami's opponents turned to violence in an effort to discredit the new president by showing that he could not fulfill the most basic task of government-maintaining law and order. 'The way he talks is different, and he has lots of new ideas,' she said. The U.S.-organized telephone poll of Iranians in May-June 2006 found that older Iranians were more CHILDREN OF THE REVOLUTION ins likely to admire the United States than those under the age of thirty, and more youngsters said they would rather see the Muslim holy city of Mecca than New York. Qom is also the site of a major seminary, the Faiziyeh, which was refurbished in the 1920s, when Najaf was in turmoil after the collapse of the Sunni Ottoman Turkish empire and Britain ruled the new country of Iraq. Globalization and the Internet, he said, are opening the eyes of the clergy to Western ideas and will produce a new synthesis appropriate for an Islamic country that has struggled for over a century to become a democracy without losing its religious traditions. In Qom, he says, 'there are thousands of discussions going on to try to find a new iden tity and a better way.' THE OPPOSITION X59 The crackdown began under the Khatami presidency, in 1999, when police and vigilantes brutally attacked students protesting new an tipress laws and the closure of a reformist newspaper. Around the same time that Fakhravar visited Washington, Abdollah Momeni, leader of Iran's main student group, the Office for Consolidation of Unity, told the Philadelphia Inquirer's Trudy Rubin that the student movement had split and 'there isn't a new coalition yet.'' But absent a dramatic catalyst or the emergence of a new charismatic leader, 'the reality is that Iran has a stable authoritarian regime and there is no obvious way to dislodge it,' says Vali Nasr of the Naval Postgraduate School 3s Oil revenues keep a 174 BITTER FRIENDS,.. The question, she said, was whether 'to allow the past to freeze the future' or to strive for a new relationship. The new plane crash had led officials to lock down the UN's iconic headquarters on the East River, and the assembled diplomats feared that terrorists might strike again. 'This could be the beginning of a new and positive relationship if accompanied by practical steps. There was no early move, however, to de vise a new approach toward Tehran. Without revealing the secret talks in Europe, he said, 'We have been in discussions with the Iranians on a variety of levels and in some new ways since September I 1 ... He called Zarif in Tehran at 2 A.M., catching Iran's UN ambassador just as he arrived from New York, and offered U.S. humanitarian assistance. UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AND WHAT LIES AHEAD 213 Iranian negotiators saw the talks with the Europeans as a useful means of reducing pressure on them and staving off possible new eco nomic sanctions. The outreach had resumed in the fall of 2005 as the Bush adminis tration sought to devise a more flexible approach to Iran, and Iranian 216 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES officials settled into new jobs following their presidential elections. Rice, recalling the talks with Iran that had followed the 9/11 attacks and focused initially on Afghanistan, authorized the new U.S. ambas sador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad-veteran of past talks with Iran-to reopen narrow discussions about stabilizing Iraq. If the U.S. administration would not engage, how better to appeal over its head to the American UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AND WHAT LIES AHEAD zo people than through the pages of USA Today, America's largest circula tion newspaper? My request for an interview with Iran's new top nu clear negotiator was granted in only a few days. Awkwardly for the Bush administration, Larijani an nounced Iran's willingness to talk to the United States on the same day that the Bush administration unveiled a new White House national se curity strategy, the administration's first in four years, that reaffirmed Bush's willingness to take preemptive action against rogue states. I asked her whether the new U.S. position gave tacit recognition to the Iranian gov ernment and meant that the United States no longer sought to overturn the Iranian regime. 'The United States looks forward to a new relationship between our peoples,' she said. Flush with petro dollars and convinced that U.S. power is over stretched and on the decline, Iranian leaders may believe they can sur vive new sanctions or air strikes more easily than Americans can UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AND WHAT LIES AHEAD 227 handle four dollars a gallon gas. Patrick Clawson and Michael Rubin, Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), p. 147. Robin Wright, The Last Great Revolution (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2000), p. 35. Amnesty International report, 'Iran: New Government Fails to Address Dire Human Rights Situation,' March 2006. BYRON YORK The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy The Untold Story of the Democrats' Desperate Fight to Reclaim Power THREE KIVEKS PKESS NEW YORK Aw 94MRrAyMh\I q'1a,4- % A 1 ~Qkk l ~ Copyright ® 2005, 2006 by Byron York All rights reserved. 2005000749 ISBN-13:978-1-4000-8239-1 ISBN-10:1-4000-8239-0 Printed in the United States of America Design by Robert C. Olsson 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 First Paperback Edition 3 1267 01734 2881 For Marty CONTENTS



INTRODUCTION Pushback The New Movement That Changed Politics 1 CHAPTER ONE Going Viral Move0n, the Web, and the Peacenik Crusade 17 CHAPTER TWO Vanity Crusade The Bubble of George Soros's Politics 49 CHAPTER THREE Shell Game America Coming Together and the World of 527s 75 CHAPTER FOUR The Passion of Michael Moore Preaching to the Choir with Fahrenheit 9/11 105 viii CONTENTS CHAPTER FIVE Unwatched Robert Greenwald and the Guerrilla Documentary 135 CHAPTER SIX Ideologues and Businessmen The Bipolar World of Liberal Radio 163 CHAPTER SEVEN 'Our Goal Is to Win' John Podesta and the Think Tank as War Room leg CHAPTER EIGHT From Fringe to Mainstream The Strange Life of the Theocratic Conspiracy Theory 221 CONCLUSION 'We Bought It, We Own It' The Lessons of 2004 for the Future 247 AFTERWORD FOR THE PAPERBACK EDITION The Campaign Continues-By Other Means 263 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 275 INDEX 277 INTRODUCTION Pushback The New Movement That Changed Politics 'We have to fight back. Republicans, on the other hand, despite their image as the party of plutocrats, had always received large 6 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY numbers of small contributions that would not be affected by the new limits. The fact that Soros essentially shaped ACT's plan, then gave the organization the money to execute it, is a telling example of how the new polit ical world worked: Outside activists and moneymen, some of whom had previously operated on the edges of the Demo cratic universe, became mainstream power figures. For MoveOn, the list provided a healthy infusion of new con tacts-people who could be asked to send contributions and sign petitions-which are the lifeblood of Internet activism. With their new fortune, they had new freedom, and they were looking for something to do. It never did-Blades told me she still hopes to get around to it someday-because after that moment of insight in the Chi nese restaurant, they became consumed with a new cause. Citing a 'huge groundswell of public feel ing,' Boyd and Blades promised to direct their new followers neatly sorted by ZIP code and electoral district-to oppose any member of Congress who voted for impeachment. The people at We Also Walk Dogs-the Chicago ver sion-created a new way for Dean supporters to set up and publicize their gatherings, a method that ultimately became one of the main organizing tools of the 2004 election. Before THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY wildly enthusiastic crowds-I attended one such gathering, filled with true believers, at a movie theater in Washington's Dupont Circle neighborhood-Pariser extolled the success of the new movie. 'As a master of online organizing, he'll equip the most important presidential cam paign in decades with an understanding of the powerful new techniques we've helped to pioneer,' Boyd and Blades said in a statement. Steitz was a true believer in the new approach, which was a radical departure from older mass-audience appeals of 56 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY television ads and direct mail. 'The fact is, we cannot be a nonpartisan group and continue to request and accept money in new grants from someone who has gone so publicly mano a mano against a sitting president from one party,' Lewis told me. In early 2003, Rosenthal got into the 527 game, heading a new organization called the Partnership for America's Families, which was created and funded by the Service Employees International Union, the AFL-CIO, the Laborers' International Union of North America, and other powerful labor groups. And last, 'In New Hampshire, we saw wins for the presidential race and 102 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY the governor's race, as well as a gain of four state senate seats.' 110 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY On the same day, the New York Times cited a retired Repub lican stockbroker who said that after he watched Fahrenheit 9/11 his vote for president was 'going to take a lot of thought.' New York is the biggest television market but the second largest film market, behind Los Angeles. 116 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY PERCENTAGE IT MARKET DIFFERED FROM EXPECTATIONS New York, NY +42.90 128 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY MICHAEL VS. MEL On June 28, 2004, the first Monday after the release of Fahren heit 9/11, the New York Times wrote that attendance for Moore's film 'resembled nothing so much as the other surprise movie event of this year, the fervor ignited by Mel Gibson's movie about the Crucifixion, `The Passion of the Christ.'' In an admiring New York Times Magazine profile, Greenwald was praised for coming up with a new weapon in the political wars, 'creating timely political films on short schedules and small budgets and then promoting and selling them on DVD through partnerships 138 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY with grass-roots political organizations like
Move0n.org' The idea-developed mainly by Greenwald, Wes Boyd of MoveOn, and John Podesta, who ran the new liberal think tank the Cen ter for American Progress-was to use film, instead of dry pol icy tomes or wonkish seminars, to reach people who might be persuaded to vote against Bush but who could not be reached by the old methods. 148 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY A look at where the film played, using the same type of data described in the previous chapter's discussion of Fahrenheit 9/11, shows that Uncovered did well-a relative term-in ten big markets: Los Angeles; New York; San Francisco; San Diego; Washington, D.C.; Chicago; Boston; Detroit; Baltimore; and Minneapolis. A former America Online executive who also served as the Internet advisor for the Democratic National Committee and the Kerry campaign, Walsh had just finished a stint as head of Air America, the new liberal talk radio network. The enterprise looked more than a little shaky at that time, and during my research on the new network, I discovered questions about Drobny that went far beyond issues of money 170 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY and investors. In some of those writings, Drobny, the man at the helm of one of the flagship efforts of the new liberal activism, seemed to align himself with the farthest fringes of the Bush-hating Left. I called Malloy to ask if he'd like to join the new network Of 174 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY course he would, he told me, but he didn't know what was going on. And that, the new execu tives believed, was conservative talk radio. 'Obviously there is a market for this in New York. Ask a politically minded conservative about the number of powerful intellectual and communications institutions that 194 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY lean to the left, and he'll reel off an imposing list: the New York Times, which has not endorsed a Republican presidential can didate since Dwight Eisenhower; the Washington Post, which, like the Times, has endorsed only Democrats for president in the past half-century; a television network or two; pretty much all of academia; the Brookings Institution; and a host of other organizations, some of them financed by grants from institutions like the Ford Foundation and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. But what to do? Even before the election, Podesta, who, after leaving the Clinton White House, took a post at George town University Law School, had begun to accept the notion 198 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY that for Democrats, having power had served as a substitute for coming up with new ideas. He had two connections to the new group. A new think tank, Soros political advisor Michael Vachon told me, 'was something that George had wanted to see for a long time, to counter the virtual monopoly that conservative groups had developed over the last thirty years over policy discourse.' To do that, the article continued, Podesta had convened a number of focus groups around the country in search of new thinking. 'But our goal is to win:' CHAPTER EIGHT From Fringe to Mainstream The Strange Life of the Theocratic Conspiracy Theory On Wednesday night, September 1, 2004, as Democratic Sena tor Zell Miller and Vice President Dick Cheney spoke to the Republican National Convention in Madison Square Garden, a New York University professor named Mark Crispin Miller was onstage at a small theater just a few miles away in Manhattan's East Village, telling an entranced audience that supporters of George W Bush planned to do away with the Constitution and impose, all across the United States, a theocracy based on the first five books of the Old Testament. But after the election came reports that Soros had gotten together with Peter Lewis and Herbert and Marion Sandler in a new, multi million-dollar venture to promote their policy ideas. Move0n had a new team in Washing ton-headed by Tom Matzzie, formerly a top aide in the Kerry Edwards campaign-and had organized the event to support the Democratic senators who were then filibustering several of President Bush's judicial nominees.
THE NEW FIGHT At the very least, the Washington rallies showed that MoveOn had come out of the defeat of 2004 with energy and ambition to spare. See America Coming Franken and, 165, 175, 176, Together (ACT) 177,179-180 Afghanistan pipeline, Texas oil Malloy and, 173-174 interests allegations, on-air personalities, 175 121-124 origins of,166-169 Ahmanson, Howard, 222, 233, performance in New York 237,238-240 City, 178-180 Air America, 163-188,267,268, al Qaeda-Iraq connection, 269 142-145 after 2004 election, AlterNet,146 252-253 'The Amazing Colossal centrist image of, 163-166 President' (Franken), conservative talk radio as 183 model for, 175-176 America Coming Together debut, 176-177 (ACT), 75-104,270, Drobnysand, 167-173, 271 174-175,178 accomplishments of, 100-102 277 278 INDEX America Coming Together (ACT), (cont.) and Vote for Change Tour house parties, 44 and Win Without War campaign, 28,29 The Passion of the Christ, 128-133 A Patriot Act (Miller), 221-222, 224-234,243,244,245, 254-255 Pedersen,Michael, 125-126 Pickering, David, 17-18,19, 20 Pines, Burton, 212 Pitofsky, Robert, 199 Podesta, John after 2004 election, 253-254 and Center for American Progress, 1-2,146,189,190, 200-201,207,216-217,266 on liberal vs. conservative ideas, 217-219 on need for liberal think tank,193,196-198 New York Times Magazine article about, 211-212 on organizing liberals, 4,14 on reaching voters, 140-141 Polis,Jared, 35 Political Money Line, 8 Pope, Carl, 81 The Progress Report, 191-192, 205-208,253,266 PunkVoter, 139
Quindlen, Anna, 169
Ragon, TerM 8'9 Republican Party, 5-6,45, 56-60,83,102-103,196 Rhodes, Randi,164-165, 175 Richards, Cecile, 85 The Rise of the Counter Establishment (Blumenthal), 198 Ritter, Scott, 145 Robison, James, 233 Rosenthal,Steve, 82,271 after 2004 election, 249-250 and America Coming Together (ACT), 5, 60, 80, 83-84,85-86 on campaign finance laws, 78-79 and Soros, 7 and voter contact approach, 75-77,80,103-104 Rove, Karl on Fahrenheit 9/11, 105-106 PowerPoint strategy presentation, 7, 56-60 on theocracy, 223 Rushdoony, R. J., 222, 232, 237, 238
Saban, Haim, 83 Salazar, Ken, 247 Sandler, Herbert and Marion, 8, 199, 200, 201 Santorum, Rick, 230 Saturday Night Live, 183 Saudi Arabia-Bush connection, 94,124 Savage, Michael, 230 INDEX 287 Scaife, Richard Mellon, 64, 73-74,170 Schneider, Bill, 107 Schweizer, Peter, 234 Schweizer, Rochelle, 234 September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, 17-21, 26-27, 67-71 September 11 Commission report, 142-145 Service Employees International Union, 80 'Seventeen Reasons Not to Slit Your Wrists' (Moore), 251 72 Hour Task Force (Rove PowerPoint presentation), 7,56-60 sexual repression of conservatives, 229-230 Sheehan, Michael, 216 Sheldon, Louis, 233 Simon, Donald, 91, 94-95 Sinton,Jon, 167-168,175,178, 181, 268, 269, 270 Sirota, David, 205, 206,273 Slacker Uprising tour, 134 Smith, Shepard,135,136,151 soft-money contributions, 5, 90-91 Soros, George, 49-74,272 after 2004 election, 248-249, 260 and America Coming Together (ACT), 7-8, 60-62,65, 71, 72, 85-87 288 INDEX Soros, George, (cont.) v bJC Also by Barton Gellman Contending with Kennan: Toward a Philosophy ofAmerican Power Barton Gellman THE PENGUIN PRESS NEW YORK zoo8 THE PENGUIN PRESS Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) In,., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, US.A. Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinmn Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P2Y3(adivision ofPeauunPenguin Canada Inc.) • Penguin Books Ltd, 80Strand, LondcmWC2RORL,England • Pcnguinlreland,258tStepben'sGrecn,Dublin2,Ireland (a division ofPenVinBooks Ltd) • Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Bad, Camberwell,Viewers3124,Australia(adivisionofPeareonAustraliaGroupPgLtd) • Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Dclhi-I I O 017, India • Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, North Shore 0632, New Zealand (a division of Peterson New Zealand Ltd) • Penguin Battles (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Survive Avenue, Rosebank, /ohaonaburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England First published in 2008 by The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) In(. Keating had big plans for the second term, not least the construction of a grand new dome atop the statehouse. Sometimes Bush's inner circle could see the boss reframing the older man's observations as his own, adding new thoughts and new turns of phrase to his lexicon. In truth, the New York ANGLER governor chatted briefly with Bush 'about their families, about poli tics and whatnot,' David Catalfamo, Pataki's communications direc tor, recalled recently. Much of it happened later, but the task force marked the new direction. When Bush arrived in Washington, aides said, he looked forward to the elbow room of his new job, but he brought no particular grievance against Congress. The Post blithely publishes secrets of CIA operations and 'a new and deadly weapons system.' If accepted, the vice president's argument would 'create a new and unbounded immunity from oversight based on constitu tional provisions that have never before been invoked in an inter branch dispute over documents. When the Washington Post reconstructed the ANGLER shootdown order, two months after Newsweek Cheney and Bush had a new version. The question that Cheney asked Addington in the bunker-what ANGLER new authority will the president need?-was nothing new to either man. His arrival at the Pentagon in 1989, with Addington at his side, brought striking new claims that the commander in chief could disregard even peace time regulation of the armed services by Congress.
Another year passed, and Diane Beaver moved on to a new legal job at the Pentagon. The final report directed Whitman 'to encourage the development' of new heat and power ANGLER plants by reducing the time required for permits and 'ensuring con sistent implementation' of the rules. Over five years, the nation's dirtiest plants could rebuild themselves from the ground up without installing new technology to cut emissions. Among those, the two most dangerous, and the subjects of the most important new intelligence, were North Korea and Iran. Nobody claimed to know for sure, but the intelligence suggested plans for a spectacular attack around New Year's Eve. Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld tele conferenced from New Mexico. Ira nians just as much as Iraqis 'need freedom now, and if they can only achieve it with American interference I think they would welcome it,' he told a correspondent for the New York Observer. Did the new study bring new evidence? 'Not so far that we've found,' Had ley said. Cheney still thought first and foremost about the national inter est, but according to Hanson and some of his staff, the vice president was beginning to see it in new ways. He's gone back and reexamined everything he did, and he's come to a new realism.' A new tax cut might bring short-term stimulus-a horizon that happened to include 2004-but the higher interest rates would wipe out those benefits quickly. The NSA was hearing that Justice had new doubts.
Goldsmith's new assignment gave him final word in the executive branch on what was legal and what was not. The president would need new information, not new arguments, to save himself. The objectives of the program, from Guantanamo to the CIA's 'black sites' and the new interrogation rules, were already met. They would all receive trials under new tribunal rules that more closely resembled the ones in use for military courts martial. He used a small pocketknife to clip Wilson's July 6, 2003, opinion article from the New York Times, and in the margin he wrote: 'Have they done this sort of thing before? Send an Amb. There were other factors at work, but the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath played a large role in driv ing crude oil prices from the $20 range to a new record of $144 a barrel the week Cheney spoke to the Australians. The other new proviso stated that 'any individual acting on behalf of the Central Intelligence Agency' in the interrogation program could rely on the president's order as a defense 'in a civil, criminal, or administrative proceeding.' He quoted a stanza from memory: New occasions teach new duties, time makes ancient good uncouth, They must upward still and onward, who would keep abreast of truth. After Sept. 11, the U.S. government created a new Continuity of Government Commission. 287 With Yoo, he had written muscular memos: Patrick E Philhin and John You to William Notes J. Haynes 11, 'Possible Habeas jurisdiction over Aliens Held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba,' Dec. 28, 2001, available in Karen J. Greenberg and Joshua L. Dratel, The Torture Papers (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 29. Goldsmith first mentioned Mrs. Ashcroft's silent protest in Jeffrey Rosen, 'Conscience of a Conservative,' New York Times Magazine, Sept. 9, 2007. ssim, 157-58 'president of foreign affairs' myth and, 54 Principals Committee involvement of, 53-54 and public opinion on Iraq War, 337-38 Quayle's meeting with, 57-60, 388 Raddatz's interview with, 390-91 'reaching down' policy of, 55, 196 realism of, 162, 252, 374 Realpolitik of, 232-33 regime change views of, 238-41 at Republican congressional retreat, 255-56 in Republican Senate caucus, 56-57 on retreating from Bush campaign agenda, 64-67 on role of vice president, 33-35, 51-52, 87 on Saddam-al Quests link, 226 secrecy of, 6-7, 92, 93-94, 95-96, 96,138, 159, 198, 199,210,287,376,385,392-93,395 Senate office of, 69, 74 sense of homer of, 19, 27-28 smallpox vaccination campaign discussion and, 343-44 staff hires of, 40-44 staff memo on global warming of, 84-85 status of aides to, 49-50 steel tariffand,270 on Steve Kass Show, 76 supply-side economics of, 257-58, 264-65 Supreme Court nominees and, 358-6(1 tax cuts and, 53, 256-57, 269-70, 378 terrorist threats discounted by, 111-13 torture as viewed by, 171, 174-75 transition headed by, 32-40,47-18 and 2003 New Year', alert, 234-35 2004 elections and, 327-28 unannounced phone calls of, 2 vetting process avoided by, 2425 in vice-presidential search, I-4,6-10,14-19,20 21,23-25 vindictiveness of, alleged, 30 warrantless surveillance program and, 143, 149, 150,153-54,277-78,282-83,290,300-302,378 web of contacts of, 40 WMD search and, 249 ors(-case scenarios as preoccupation of, 53 Wyoming registration of, 17, 22 Cheney, Liz, 7, 8, 32, 37, 242, 387 88 Cheney, Lynne, 32, 35, 52,94, 1027, 116, 117, 121, 250,336,337-38,362,389-90 Index Ch eney, Macy,32, 52 Chertuff, Michael, 330 child tax credit, 72-73 China, 113, 230, 252, 372, 374, 375, 394 chinonk salmon, 213 Chase Jin So, 375 Christie, Ron, 47-18, 79, 165, 196, 202, 213, 204, 213 (:hunch, Frank, 1110, 140,141 Church Committee, 100, 140, 141, 150 Churchill, Winston, 131, 335 CIA, 59, 100, 109, 139, 140, 145, 175, 181, 228, 229, 235, 278, 282, 293, 307, 353, 357, 361, 362 al Qaeda's threatened attacks and, 111-12 black sites of, 176, 355-56 detainee interrogations by, 174,176-77, 180, 184, 191,377-78 Iraq WMDs and, 217,219,220-21 Predator drone of, 109, 112 Weapons, Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Centeq 343 Clapper, James, 112-13 Clark amendment, 100 Clarke, Richard, I 11, 113, 117-18, 156 Clean Air Act, 89, 205, 208 Clement, Edith Brown, 359, 360 Clement, Paul, 345 Clemone, Steve, 371-72, 375 Clinton, Bill, 14, 15, 33, 53, 70, 101, 110, 144, 153, 260,372 executive orders of, 69, 198-99 Clinton, Hillary, 91-92 Clint.. terrorism, 227 Taft, William H., IV, 166, 171 Talon, 162, 175, 229, 243 as unlawful combatants, 169, 170, 285 Tarnak Qila training camp, 109 tax cuts, 53, 63, 65, 70, 71, 74-77, 256-57, 258, 264, 267-68 technology bubble, 261 Telecommunications Act, 281 telecommunications companies, 288-89, 379 Tone, George, 111, 139-40, 141, 143, 177-78, 215, 217,234,235,307,341,342 terrorists, terrorism, 331, 344 Madrid bombings by, 316-17 1993 World Trade Center attack of, 110 Soviet sponsorship of, 223 state sponsors of, 226, 227-28, 229, 230, 231, 367, 368 2003 New Year's alert, 233 36 W urniser's.spider Lane had pub lished a new book, Conversations with Americans,° featuring inter views with Vietnam veterans who described war crimes and atrocities. (loud cheers) Robert Jones, New York, and I symbolically return all Vietnam medals and service medals given me by the power structure that 144 UNFIT FOR COMMAND has genocidal policies against non-white peoples of the world. Walinsky and Kerry arranged a private meeting with donors at the Seagram Building in New York, a meeting that included Seagram's chief executive, Edgar M. Bronfman Sr., and some twenty New York businessmen who shared Kerry's antipathy to the Vietnam War.
What John Kerry Does Not Want You to Know about When He Quit the WAW The public record indicates that Kerry gave several speeches in 1972 representing the WAW The New York Times reported on January 12, 1972, that Kerry had given a speech at Dartmouth College, repre senting himself as a spokesman for the WAW: 'John Kerry, the war critic and spokesman for Vietnam Veterans Against the War, told a Dartmouth College audience of 300 persons here last night to 'get into politics and make the system work.'' March 17,1969: At Kerry's own request, departs An Thoi for the United States citing three Purple Heart regulation Fall 1969: Requests early departure from the U.S. Naval Reserves in order to run for Congress January 3,1970: Status changes from 'active' duty to 'inac tive' duty in the Naval Reserves Spring 1970: Runs for Congress but withdraws First meeting with North Vietnam officials in Paris March 1971: VVAW meeting where first assassination pro posal is made (proposal voted down) April 19-23,1971: Operation Dewey Canyon III protest in Washington, D.C., where Kerry throws away his medals or ribbons April 22,1971: Testifies before Senate Foreign Relations Committee June 30,1971: Debates John O'Neill on The Dick Cavett Show Fall 1971: Begins second run for Congress November 12-14,1971: Attends VVAW meeting where a for mal proposal is made to assassinate U.S. senators (proposal voted down) Late 1971: The New Soldier is published July 1, 1972: Transferred to Standby Reserve, 'inactive' NOTES CHAPTER ONE: DEBATING KERRY 1. Douglas Brinkley, Tour of Duty: fohn Kerry and the Vietnam War (New York: William Morrow, 2004),370-73. Then he 10 The Real McCain Who Knows McCain r I I took a job with his new father-in-law's beer company. ' 2 McCain, described by columnist William Safire at the time as 'the de facto president of the United States,' be came one of the nation's strongest voices in favor of the Kosovo war, and saw his poll numbers rise quickly into double digits in the months before the New Hampshire primary. The new strategy was on The Real McCain disappeared from the relevant legislation. In July 2006 Josh Gerstein of the New York Sun summed up McCain's most recent course correction. One is Houston homebuilder Bob Perry, who the New York Times described as 'a prominent donor to Republican commit tees and candidates' as well as 'a major financial backer of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (SBVT), the organization that assailed the military credentials of 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry.'' has new friends, which is often a good thing. The new law took some interrogation options away from the military but its fine print also took away the right. In addition, sev eral GOP stalwarts are retiring John Warner of Virginia, Trent Lott of Mississippi, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, 139 The Real McCain and Wayne Allard of Colorado-and the Democratic Party is salivating (as am 1: AlFranken Liveffrom the Senate cham bers, with special guest, the Udall Cousins, Mark aw_dTom, aiming for the Allard and Domenici seats, respectively). John McCain, interview with Terry Moran, Straight Talk Express in Grafton, New Hampshire, March 24, 2007. Max Blumenthal, 'Birth Pangs of a New Christian Zionism,' The Real McCain The Nation, August 8, 2006,
www.thenation.com/doc/20060814/new_ ALSO BY KENNETH M.POLLACK
THINGS FALL APART: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War THE PERSIAN PUZZLE: The Conflict Between Iran and America THE THREATENING STORM: The Case for Invading Iraq ARABS AT WAR: Military Effectiveness, 1948-199i A PATH OUT of the DESERT A GRAND STRATEGY FOR AMERICA IN THE MIDDLE EAST KENNETH M. POLLACK


RANDOM HOUSE I NEW YORK Copyright © 2008 by Kenneth M. Pollack Map copyright © 2008 by Anita Karl and Jim Kemp All rights reserved Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York RANDOM HOUSE and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. I also made clear that, despite the Bush administration's claims to the contrary, there was no evidence of meaningful Iraqi ties to al-(:Za'ida) Since the revelation that Saddam had actually eliminated virtually all of his WMD programs in the late s99os, I have written several pieces for The Atlantic Monthly, The New Republic, Slate, The New York Times, and other publications in which I tried to look back at my own thinking before the war to determine the mistakes that I (and others) made before it. And they all agreed to avoid mounting a new effort to broker peace between Is raelis and Palestinians like the plague. A new grand strategy toward the Middle East is still desperately needed, but it has to have the right goals and be implemented soberly and realistically. As with South Korea and Taiwan, we should want our Arab allies to feel that they can rely on the United States so that they can focus on their internal prob lems and so that they do not take provocative unilateral actions that could spark a new war or other crisis. New in- 84 I THE PROBLEMS OF THE MODERN MIDDLE EAST dustries are being built in the Arab world, but most of the jobs con tinue to go to newly imported South and Southeast Asians. To the extent that unemployment numbers are improving, they are doing so because of new public works, some increase in agricultural hires (where productivity is in decline), and the government practice of classifying informal work at home and cottage industries as . Many Muslim Middle Easterners are alarmed by the new emphasis on the individual at the expense of traditional values built around family and community. In deed, many Middle Easterners would argue that Islamism is not a new idea at all but a return to the way that Muslims have thought about politics for centuries, interrupted only during the twentieth century by the (temporary) ascendancy of secular philosophies that have now been discarded. Those who start the civil war are rarely seeking the war itself, most often they seek some radical change in the political status quo (a new government, a new ruler, seceding from the existing state), and the civil war ensues when they are blocked by other groups and/or the government, which oppose the changes they seek. Rather than being enriched by Iran's new oil wealth, far too many people were impov erished. 'The activists were often young and almost always poor,' in the words of Martha Crenshaw' That is why so many terrorist groups employ material incentives for new recruits, including suicide bombers 4 1 There is no question that the Western media have grossly exaggerated both the munifi cence of these rewards and their importance to the recruits. They conceived of the carnage in New York and Washington as an extension of the Pales tinian suicide bombings, whose popularity bin Laden sought to channel for his own purposes.''' Indeed, they will no doubt have learned from prior mistakes and be fired by new anger by their years under suppression. Just as Japanese, Korean, and Chinese cultures all adapted to the demands and the new values of the industrial age and then the information age while maintaining many of the unique aspects of their culture and values, so too must Muslim Middle Eastern society. In other words, there is no real reason to believe that we can fully avoid the problems of new democracies having a greater propensity for war, and if we were to try to suppress that desire for change, reform, and democracy, we could actually make the problem much worse. The one thing that we can be certain of, however, is that these adjustments will take time because it is the nature of cultures to adapt slowly to new phenomena. Another is the draconian new visa regulations that the United States has imposed, which have made it considerably harder for Middle Easterners to go to school in America. However, these are far outnumbered by the ranks of graduates from American schools who return home to the Middle East with new skills and an affection for the United States that makes them the drivers of reform in their societies. Similarly, unless we are willing to put new chips on the table, the only way to persuade them to do something is to take chips that were being used to get them to do other things in the past. A UNSC-authorized high commissioner or a new and more fully empowered special envoy, could be given primary responsibility for leading the political and economic reconstruction effort. 350 I A REGION OF CRISES The new strategy has demonstrated that it has the potential to suc ceed in the modest goal of creating a stable Iraq, but it is far from proving that success is ensured. Major civil wars breed new terrorist groups (the IRA, PLO, Hizballah, Tamil Tigers, Hamas, Is- A REGION OF CRISES lamic Jihad, and al-Qa'ida itself were all born of civil wars) and provide sanctuary to existing ones (as al-Qa'ida has found sanctuary and employment in Somalia and now Iraq). (This is another aspect of the chal lenges of withdrawing quickly from Iraq, although over the long term, Iranian involvement in an all-out Iraqi civil war could cripple Iran) It also means not allowing new failed states, new civil wars, and new insurgencies to arise. Iranian officials have already indicated their willingness to participate in such a forum, with Iran's former ambassador to the United Nations advocating it 410 1 A REGION OF CRISES in the pages of The New York Times.' Those problems will change over time-some might even be solved-and will doubtless be re placed by new ones. (Others have suggested that India might someday be a third) Because this devel- 418 1 A PATH OUT OF THE DESERT opment could fundamentally affect everything else the United States is attempting to do in the region, and to illustrate more fully how the United States should approach future changes in the region in the context of a new grand strategy, I think it useful to briefly lay out how the United States should try to apply a new grand strategy to the rise of Chinese interests and influence in the Middle East. Many China experts speak of a debate in Beijing over how to handle China's growing interests in the Middle East, with some espousing a hard-line 'realist' position, which would increasingly pit China as a rival against the United States, and others arguing for a 'liberal - position that would embrace precisely the kind of cooperative relationship with Washington that 438 I LOOKING FARTHER DOWN THE PATH would be most beneficial from the perspective of a new American grand strategy toward the region.' Tamara Wittes, one of the country's leading experts on democratization in the Middle East, not only read the manuscript and smacked me in the head to get me to think straight on several important topics, but also allowed me to read an early version of her own superb new book, Freedom's Un steady March. 444 1 NOTES 'The Making of a Special Relationship: The United States and Israel, 1957-68,' International Journal of Middle East studies 25, no. 4 (November 1993), PP. 563 - 585: Kenneth Organski, The $36 Billion Bargain: Strategy and Politics in U.S. Assistance to Israel (New York: Columbia University Press, 1990); Steven L. Spiegel, The OtherAmb-Israel Conflict: MakingAmerica'sMid dle East Policy from Truman to Reagan (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985). The fact that the Israelis ultimately prevailed-handily-does not change the NOTES 1 451 I 452 I fact that we did nothing to help preserve the new state and were moti vated almost entirely by fear of jeopardizing the revenues of our oil com panies doing business in the Arab world. Warren Bass, Support Any Friend: Kennedy's Middle East and the malting of the US,israel Alliance (Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press, 2003); Abra ham Ben-Tzvi, Decade of Transition: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the Origins of the American-Israeli Alliance (New York Columbia University Press, 1998); Mordechai Gazit, 'The Genesis of the US-Israeli Military-Strategic Re lationship and the Dimona Issue,'Journal ofContentporary History 35, no. 3 (July 2000), pp. 413-422; Lipson, American Support for Israel: History, Sources, Limits,' pp. 129-142; Douglas Little, 'The Making of a Special Relationship: The United States and Israel, 1957-68,' International Journal of Middle East Studies 25, no. 4 (November 1993), PP . Dennis Ross, The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2oo4), pp. 693 - 694. Peter L. Bergen, Holy War, Inc.: Inside the secret world of osama bin Laden (New 3 4 5 474 1 NOTES York: Free Press, 2001), pp. 200-202; Gilles Kepel, The War for Muslim Minds: Islam and the west, trans. 57 478 1 NOTES 2006), pp. 151-152; Yaroslav Trofimov, The Siege of Mecca (New York: Doubleday, 2007). And How to Restore America's standing in the World (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2007), pp. 17-21, 333 - 341. Ronald D. Asmus and Kenneth M. Pollack, 'The New TransAtlantic Project: A Response to Robert Kagan,' Policy Review, October-November 2002, pp. 3-18. Senator Richard G. Lugar, A New Partnership for the Greater Middle East: Combating Terrorism, Building Peace,' The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, March 29, 2004, available at http://wwwbrookings.edu/-/media/Files/events/2004/0329 The best unclassified sources at present are Daniel Byman, Deadly Connec tions: States That Sponsor Terrorism (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2005), pp. 79-no, especially p. 85; Richard Clarke, AgainstAll Ene mies: Inside America's War on Terror (New York: Free Press, 2oo4), pp. 112-131; Timothy Naftali, Blind Spot: The Secret History of American Counterter rorims (New York: Basic Books, 2005), pp. 248-251, 260-261; and the 3 4 5 7 Sis I NOTES grand jury indictment against thirteen members of Saudi Hizballah filed by the U.S. government in Alexandria, Virginia. 349 Islamist dilemma and, 268-69 mass culture and, 197-98 modernity and, 197-98 new democracies and, 282-84 in occupation of Iraq, 196 reform and, 282 - 84,291 - 94,303, 308 - 9 in resentment of U.S. dominance, 196 - 97 sense of grievance and, 213 support for autocratic regimes and, 199-201 support for Israel and, 196, 206 U.S. double-standard and, 243-44 anti-Semitism, 28, 42, 282 Aoun, Michel, 394 Arab Common Market, io9-io Arab Human Development Report (AHDR), 78, 87, 88-89, 90, 93. f T E I? OUS America's Worst Abandoned Properties and What Can Be Done About Them Justin B. Hollander







University of Vermont Press Burlington, Vermont Published by University Press of New England HanoverandLondon University of Vermont Press Published by University Press of New England, One Court Street, Lebanon, NH 03766 www.upne.com Department of) Housing and Urban Development ISRA Industrial Site Recovery Act LDC Local Development Corporation LULU Locally Unwanted Land Use MRCO Mahoning River Corridor of Opportunity NGO nongovernmental organization NJDEP New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration List of Acronyms PCBs polychlorinated biphenyls PDD Planned Development District RIDC Regional Industrial Development Corporation SHPO State Historic Preservation Officer SSLDC South Side Local Development Corporation TOADS Temporarily Obsolete Abandoned Derelict Sites URA Urban Renewal Authority WHALE Waterfront Historic Area League Introduction uilt around 1943 to support the war effort, the Delco Appliance Factory is located between Orchard and Whitney Avenue in the Dutchtown neighborhood of Rochester, New York (Marcotte 2004). They are Trenton, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, New Bedford, Massachusetts, Youngstown, Ohio, and Richmond, Virginia. However, some cities, such as Boston and Philadelphia, have emerged from deindustrialization and devised new, modern avenues for growth and would not be expected to have many HI-TOADS. While not as large as other HI-TOADS in cluded in this study, such as the 1,20o-acre South Buffalo Industrial Area in Buffalo, New York, the Drayton Street Gas Station is adjacent to residential structures and compromises the integrity of Savannah's 1381 Table 3.2 And in New Bedford, Mr. Alfonse linked a HI-TOAD site with a neighborhood mindset: 'Certainly has had a psychological impact on the neighborhood ... Neither of the two New Bedford officials interviewed thought that the site presently met the definitional criteria to be a HI-TOAD site. New Haven has used a coastal [50] POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS A National Perspective on What Cities Do about HI-TOADS [5t] HI-TOAD Site Profile: Colt Fiream Plant, Hartford, Connecticut Formerly a major manufacturer of firearms off Interstate Highway 91, -'Colt's complex of twelve buildings on about 2o acres was partially aban doned at the turn of the millennium. The controversy in New London stemmed partially from the fact that the city sought to acquire homes owned and occupied by middle-income residents. [561 POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS A National Perspective on What Cities Do about HI-TOADS [57] the liability with the new developer if environmental issues arise at a site. In an effort to attract new development onto the city's HI-TOADS, the city is telling developers that it will share in [58] of sites can take years if not decades, three officials (y.9 In one New Jersey city, 'sometimes we can use [the HI-TOAD site] for a parking lot, for an interim use ... Mr. Alfonse described the interim use of a portion of the Morris Cutting Tools Plant in New Bedford, Massachusetts: 'It's a two block parcel, most of the contamination is on only one block ... Here, the officials are concerned with mitigating against the ongoing, neighborhood-wide impacts of HI-TOADS by making a new, al beit temporary, use of the site. In trying to Redevelopment Policy in a Municipal Coalition City TRENTON, NEW JERSEY

I-TOADS offer a unique challenge to local officials. Chapters 6, 7, 8, and 9 will focus on the Pittsburgh, New Bedford, Richmond, and Youngstown case studies, respectively. ]801 The devastation caused by plant closing and deindustrialization hurt few regions worse than New England. Therefore, my third case study is in one of New England's great ports, New Bedford, Massachusetts (2000 pop ulation, 93,768). In the state of New Jersey, median housing values rose from $119,200 to $170,8oo during the same time period. The new uses are a central component of what one city official called Trenton's search to 'find a niche in modern economic times' (Alan Mallach, quoted in Garbarine 1997). A New Jersey Department of Corrections facility undergoing closure occupies almost lo acres along the creek. New Jersey Transit operated a now largely defunct railyard POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS along the floodway. The vision for the future is primarily to accommodate new, perhaps cleaner, industrial uses to the city. The senti ment was further expressed in the city's 1999 Land Use Plan: 'Trenton may never again be the industrial giant it once was, but there are important POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS The City of Trenton is trying desperately to capitalize on its HI-TOADS sites by making them part of a larger vision of a new, modern city. When so much of the city's industrial lands are laying fal low, the easy answer is to reoccupy those sites with new industrial uses. Therefore, the city's strat egy has been to demolish these kinds of structures to make way for new, property-tax-generating uses. Slag Heaps, Steel Mills, and Sears PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA


W ith the story of how New jerseys capital city addresses its HI TOADS complete, I now turn to a large city on the edge of the Midwest. Be cause the city is more than 99 percent built-out, new development in Pitts burgh is almost always on brownfields. With the founda tions and their new organization, ALMOND, at Hazelwood, and the East Liberty Quarter Chamber of Commerce at the Sears Site, NGOs have been 11481 POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS 3. But in New Bedford, the bottom-feeders are tolerated. 11501 In this chapter, I explore the ways that bottom-feeders have been viewed in New Bedford by local officials as a natural market response to HI-TOADS. 1152] POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS HI-TOADS in New Bedford There are five HI-TOADS in New Bedford: Aerovox, the Elco Dress Factory, Fairhaven Mills, Morse Cutting Tools, and Pierce Mills (see table 7.1 Just a block away from the Elco Dress First Whales, Now Brownfields: New Bedford, Massachusetts 11551 FIGURE 7.2. Representative Traficant suggested [1851 [1861 that instead of an expansion in Boardman, the project take the form of a new stand-alone community convocation center in the City of Youngstown. With this new form, the congressman felt that he could bring in upwards Of $30 million in federal funds. As highlighted in the earlier case studies of Pittsburgh [1961 and New Bedford, those cities did look to the future in many of the same ways as Youngstown, but neither city involved comprehensive public par ticipation or codified their plans. Real estate values are quite low [in Youngstown]:' With low property values and poor public capital, the city turned to a new para digm in urban planning: the shrinking city. The new industrial green zoning is 'less' noxious than traditional in dustry, but risks to nearby residential populations continue. This idea for a smaller, better Youngstown flows from the work of Popper and Popper, who called for a new kind of planning: What can planners do when communities are shrinking rather than grow ing? We suggest the answer is 'smart decline.' These groups had little to do with HI-TOADS and if anything, they are reactive to new development projects, like the city government. In New Bedford, despite all of the external acclaim, the city invested very little [236] POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS Conclusion (237] in promoting redevelopment of its HI-TOADS. In the same way that commu nity empowerment was illustrated in the work of Dewar and Deitrick (2004), the example of New Bedford was that local residents were instrumental in driving reuse efforts and were the true beneficiaries of those efforts. The nonprofit, Isles, Inc., played a pivotal role in the Magic Marker HI-TOAD site due to a pilot [2381 POLLUTED AND DANGEROUS funding project through the State of New Jersey's Department of Environ mental Protection. [2421 Planning education teaches professionals how to work with citizens to envision new uses for obsolete land uses. Whether it is an issue of siting a new waste-transfer station, converting a single-family house to a group home for the mentally ill, or damming a [247] [248] river, the drawing of battle lines is a perennial problem. In the new construction arena it is pro-growth versus no-growth groups, in the river damming arena it is pro-environment versus pro-energy groups. APPENDIX D Results of ClusterAnalysis Using a Setting of Five Clusters Cluster Camden Detroit Miami Bridgeport Buffalo Macon Evansville Tampa Gary Scranton Beaumont Kansas City St. Louis Hartford Providence South Bend Pittsburgh Louisville Allentown Chattanooga Youngstown Albany Springfield Duluth Baltimore Newark Jackson Topeka Philadelphia Savannah Toledo Lansing Trenton Erie Milwaukee Baton Rouge Flint Cincinnati Waterbury Columbia Dayton Richmond Shreveport Norfolk Cleveland Kansas City Portsmouth Atlanta Birmingham New Haven Hammond Des Moines Rochester Knoxville Mobile Syracuse New Bedford Akron New Orleans Canton Memphis Cluster z Washington Oakland Long Beach Stamford Boston Dearborn Seattle Alexandria New York Warren Cambridge Torrance Denver Honolulu San Francisco Huntington Beach Parma Berkeley Glendale [2741 Montgomery Amarillo Phoenix Garden Grove Oklahoma City San Bernardino Lincoln Raleigh Corpus Christi Wichita Stockton Santa Ana Columbus Sacramento Madison Virginia Beach St. Petersburgh Fresno Albuquerque Anaheim San Antonio Hialeah Riverside Colorado Springs Spokane Portland Charlotte El Paso Lexington San Diego Austin San Jose Fremont Las Vegas APPENDIX D Cluster 3 U.S. Cities with Populations Greater than ioo,ooo in i97o Cluster 4 Cluster g APPENDIX E LEGEND APPENDIX F Interview Instrument Edward J. Bloustein School ofPlanning e'r Public Policy Rutgers University Abandoned Properties Study September 2005 Questions t) What is your current position? How long have you been in that posi tion, how long have you worked for the City of X? 7 City 1 2 3 Buffalo, National Fuel Gas South Buffalo In- Hanna Furnace, New York Site, heavily con- dustrial Area, for- steel production, taminated former mer pig-iron and 113 acres (South gas plant, 7 acres steel plants, 1,200 Buffalo). City New Haven, Connecticut Newark, New Jersey Winchester Rifle Site, go acres (Win- chester Avenue). million copies sold and was on the top of the New York Times best-seller list for two years in both hard cover and paperback. 0912 Printed in the United States of America on Acid-Free Paper First Edition Book Design: Ghislain Viau Photo of the Author: Aaron Nielsen Book Consultant: Ellen Reid Part II-On the Horizon: The Economic Storm of the Century Chapter 5: The Phony Socialist Health-Care Crisis: The Biggest Power Grab of All 51 Chapter 6: Inflation: Why Hyperinflation Is in Your Future 57 Part III-Prescriptions Chapter 7: Ruffonomics: A Plan for Middle-Class American Families 69 Chapter 8: Old-Fashioned Family Values: American's Hidden Strength 75 Chapter 9: Getting Out of Debt: Why Debt Is the New Slavery 83 Chapter 10: Entrepreneurism: The Guts of Capitalism 89 Chapter 11: How to Lose Money in a Hurry: What Financial Poison to Avoid 105 Chapter 12: Thinking Outside the Financial Box: Maverick Investing in the Age of Obamanomics 109 Acknowledgements 133 Appendix A: Valuable Information Sources 135 Appendix B: Investment Menu 141 Foreword ABOUT THE AUTHOR, BY THE AUTHOR Life's tragedy is that we get old too soon and wise too late. Mortgage companies quickly saw they could earn big 21 How to Prosper in the Age of the Obomonomics How We Got In This Mess commissions by approving millions of new mortgages. The collapsed bond-asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. Now, too much of their money is committed to interest payments on another new car, a bigger house, a home theater, a vacation in an exotic place, a cruise, etc.
93 How to Prosper in the Age of the Obamanomics Seed Money: No Back Doors Several times each month, I'm approached by friends with a new business idea, an invention or some special skill they want to sell. Acclaim for The Great Risk Shift: The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream 'His most ambitious work yet.' -The New York Times Book Review 'A fresh diagnosis of a familiar complex of problems from structural un employment to the erosion of retirement plans you can retire on.' -David Leonhardt, New York Times The Great Risk Shift The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION Jacob S. Hacker OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. 2006015484 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper To my mother and father Contents Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition ix Preface to the First Edition xv introduction: On the Edge 1 The New Economic Insecurity 11 Risking It All 35 Risky Jobs 61 Risky Families 87 Risky Retirement 109 Risky Health Care 137 Conclusion: Securing the Future 165 Acknowledgments 195 Notes 199 Index 237 Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition In a single short year, the economic insecurity of American fami lies has moved from the sidelines to the center of public debate. But suddenly everyone was speaking a new language, the language of risk. As the growth of prices slowed and then reversed in 2006 and credit markets faltered, foreclosure rates-for ordi nary mortgages as well as subprime loans-escalated to shocking new heights. A PREFACE TO THE REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION Building on this welcome outpouring of new studies-all of which have confirmed my core conclusion that American family incomes have grown more unstable-I have returned to my prior analyses of family income instability in preparing this revised edition, work ing with a team of capable young scholars at Yale and beyond. I have also included in this revised edition a brief comparison of my findings with other recent analyses and a full set of citations to the new wave of work on economic insecurity, much of it inspired by the hardcover edition of this book. It connects the insecurities of XVI PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION the new workplace, the strains facing modern families, the ris ing uncertainties of retirement, and the growing gaps in Ameri can health insurance. What it calls on us to XVIII PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION do-all of us-is to reconstruct our framework of economic secu rity on a new and stronger foundation for the twenty-first century, so that every person stirred by the promise of this great nation can have the confidence to reach for and achieve the American Dream. THE GREAT RISK SHIFT Introduction On the Edge ANDREA CASE PAUSES on the other end of the line to compliment her nine-year-old son, Jack, who is proudly displaying a handful of fish that he has dredged from the river that runs behind their suburban New Jersey home. To take in the full scope of the Great Risk Shift, however, requires considering these transformations one by one: the new world of work, the increas ingly risk-bound family, and America's enfeebled public-private framework of health insurance and retirement pensions, in which Americans have invested so much money, faith, and hope. 1 The New Economic Insecurity I WAS BORN in a small college town in Oregon in the early 1970s-just before the oil shocks, stagflation, and upheaval of the decade. A thirty-year period of shared prosperity in the United States was giving way to a new age of insecurity. Americans may be richer than they were in the 1970s, but they are also facing much greater ~: s i THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 13 economic insecurity. THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 15 And this rising insecurity does not come with any obvious silver linings. They have THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 17 said that their own financial situation is weakening. Much of our increasingly sophisti cated appreciation of risk comes from the efforts of economic play ers who deal with risk day in and day out to come up with new measures and new models for judging its magnitude and effects. The Great Risk THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 21 Shift is the story of how a myriad of risks that were once managed and pooled by government and private corporations have been shifted onto workers and their families-and how this has created both real hardship for millions and growing anxiety for millions more. Surveyors must stay in contact with respondents (and their descendants) over long periods of time while periodically adding new respondents to keep the survey representative of a changing population. We need to survey the same people over many years, following them even as they experience death, birth, marriage, pay raises, pay cuts, new jobs, lost jobs, relocations, and all the other events, good and bad, that mark the passage from childhood into old age. Nearly forty years into its operation, the survey has included more THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 23 than 65,000 people, some of whom have been answering questions for their entire adult lives, others of whom have been in the survey since their birth. r THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 25 Plus, there's an even more glaring oversight of paeans to social mobility: What goes up also goes down. THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 27 Loss aversion is a well-known phenomenon in behavioral economics -the study of how people actually reason about economic choices. But how can we say that about workers who did stay in school and yet still experience high levels of volatility? The forces that have created the new economic roller coaster- THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 29 growing workplace insecurity, the new risks of the contemporary family, and the erosion of stable social benefits-have swept through the lives of almost every American. About 45 percent of all nonelderly adults in the PSID experience a drop in real family income over a two-year period, and while the share rises and falls with the business cycle and has increased overall since the 1970s, THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 31 it has remained fairly steady. percent of Ameri cans will spend at least a year in poverty between the ages of twenty and seventy-five as I have asked Rank whether this striking result somehow hinges on including cash-poor college students in the THE NEW ECONOMIC INSECURITY 33 calculations, and he has assured me it does not. One way was by developing attractive new tax breaks to encourage individualized benefit plans RISKING IT ALL SS that could compete with old-style health and pension benefits. The floodgates quickly opened to a grow ing assortment of costly new tax breaks for IRAs, 401(k)s, educa tion savings plans, health care accounts, and other account-style plans that, conservative supporters hoped, would not only reduce Americans' dependence on government programs but also bolster enthusiasm for new and expanded private options. Even tually, he scavenged a new job-in pest control-but he now makes less than half what he used to. And unlike her old job, her new one doesn't offer a 62 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT J i f s o guaranteed pension plan, only the option of a 401(k). While the n um bers of those displaced from employment has grown, th e_ nros eect of gaining new jobs wi th relatively similar pay and benefits has fallen. And at the heart of this loss is the new American work contract. Gene Sperling, former economic adviser to Bill Clinton, has called this new era 'the dynamism economy,' one characterized by an acceleration of the 'creative destruction' of innovation and re structuring that the great economist Joseph Schumpeter identi fied as the defining element of the market economy.' Mark McClellan's story of losing his job without a new one in sight sounds more familiar today because it is~ven when the economy is roaring, there are three times as many people in the same boat. 'I'm back to where I was in 1990,' he says, 'trying to figure it all out, looking to start, essentially, a new career.' Jobs come and go as the economy evolves, often benefiting those workers who learn new skills and keep up with economic changes.'' The contingent workforce represents the apotheosis of the new employment contract-the culmination of the notion that workers are on their own, bearing all the risks and making all the investments necessary for economic success. After eighteen months without work, George found a new job. In fact, the RISKY FAMILIES 91 conventional assumption about the new American family is that it serves as a form of private risk-sharing, allowing families to deal with shocks to income that affect one spouse by increasing the work effort of the other. How could they not, when 65 percent of their monthly income goes to loan payments, while 28 percent goes to health insurance costs for Silvia and the kids? Silvia eventually got a new job-which pays $2,000 a month but doesn't provide health insurance. If both parents work, who stays home when a kid gets sick? If both parents work, what hap pens to family finances when one leaves the workforce to raise a new baby or care for young children or elderly parents? These are questions whose answers often mean the difference between stay ing afloat or sinking for today's middle-class families. And because they are, the trade-offs posed by the new world of work and family become all the more stark. 'I make t 138 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT i good money, and I work hard for it,' Arnold Dorsett told the New York Times. 25 And on this agenda was RISKY HEALTH CARE 151 a bold new initiative that Gingrich was calling Medical Savings Accounts. Overwhelmed by the confusing array of options in some regions, without any alter native options in others, seniors largely steered clear of the new plans. 46 158 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT The main reason for the divorce between the high costs of the new insurance and its meager benefits is simple: Republicans in- j sisted that Medicare stay out of the business of directly providing drug coverage. But the pharma ceutical industry went all out to head off the threat-even poach- f ing the Republican who wrote the legislation in the House as its new lobbying chief upon his retirement (negotiations began while the bill was being written). All of these mount ing risks add up to an ever more harrowing reality: Increasingly, all 166 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT of us-even those of us with good jobs and good pay, with children and spouses, with homes and college degrees-are riding the new economic roller coaster. One reason growing economic insecurity hasn't shaken American politics as much as it might have is that we think we are on our own in the new world of work and family. But why not? If we are to be encouraged to invest in new skills, strong families, new jobs, and everything else that makes upward mobility possible, we need a broader umbrella of basic insurance, not a more tattered and CONCLUSION 179 narrow one. The ultimate goal, however, should be a new framework of social insurance that revitalizes the best elements of the present system while replacing those parts that work least effectively with stron ger alternatives geared toward today's economy and society. Because the new Medicare Plus program would cover approximately half of Ameri cans, moreover, it would have strong leverage to bargain for low prices on behalf of covered Americans and their employers. In higher-wage firms and unionized industries, companies would still see it as in their interest to provide broad coverage-although some might decide it was better to supplement the new Medicare Plus pro- CONCLUSION 191 gram than to provide coverage directly. But the new framework would ensure that everyone who works has secure health insurance, that many more workers have a choice of health plan (including a plan with free choice of doctors and specialists), and that firms that now struggle to provide health benefits or can't provide them at all have an attractive, low-cost option for doing so. The elimination of these expenses must be accounted for when tallying up the bill, as should the huge drain that our current sys tem imposes when people don't change jobs, don't have kids, don't invest in new skills because they fear the downside risks. So many fine thinkers have shared their work and their insights that I cannot possibly list them all here, but I would be remiss if I did not thank the many participants in workshops, seminars, and private conversations who set me on new paths-or set me straight. Jacob S. Hacker, `Call It the Family Risk Factor,' New York rimes, January 11, 2004, sec. (There is also a new unpublished study that uses the CWHS to study mobility and inequality since the 1930s. George L. Priest, 'Rethinking the New Deal: The Role of the Govern ment as an Insurer,' AEI Bradley Lecture Series, February 12, 1996, available online at www.aei.org/publications/publD.18105,filter.all/ The statistic on sleep comes not just from personal experience but also from Andrew Cherlin and Prem Krishnamurthy, 'What Works for Mom,' New York Times, May 9, 2004, sec. Eduardo Porter and Mary Williams Walsh, 'Retirement Turns Into a Rest Stop as Benefits Dwindle,' New York 7Emes, February 9, 2005, NOTES TO PAGES 114-121 225 available online at www.nytimes.com/2005/02/09/business/ NOTES TO PAGES 153-158 231 33, Cohn, 'Crash Course'; Eric Dash, 'Health Savings Accounts Attract Wall Street,' New York Times, January 27, 2006; America's Health Insurance Plans, January 2007 Census, available online at www.ahiperesearch.org/pdfs/final%20ahip Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (New York: Wiley, 1996). Storms of My Grandchildren STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN
The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity


JAMES HANSEN Illustrations by Makiko Sato


New York • Berlin • London Copyright © 2009 by James Hansen Illustrations copyright © 2009 by Makiko Sato All rights reserved. For information address Bloomsbury USA, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Stouffer, a decade or so younger, is a climate modeler at the NOAA Geophysi cal Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. He also knows the president has publicly favored aggressive new actions to improve energy efficiency and develop renewable energies. And the Bush 91 92 STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN THE FAUSTIAN BARGAIN: HUMANITY'S OWN TRAP 93 administration was not willing to revise its climate policies in the face of new data, contrary to the president's 2001 Rose Garden decla ration. Gutro's e-mail read: 'According to HQ, there's a new review process that has totally gridlocked all earth science press releases 94 STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN THE FAUSTIAN BARGAIN: HUMANITY'S OWN TRAP Allen's legendary status in Iowa that my talk was approved as a university 'Distinguished Lecture.' I sensed that it was only because of Van 96 I sent a draft of my presentation to Andrew Revkin of the New York Times on October 25, the day before my speech. The report, titled 'Regarding Allegations that NASA Suppressed Climate Change Science and Denied Media Access to Dr. James E. Hansen, a NASA Scientist,' confirmed the allegations and placed 134 the blame several layers higher than suggested by the New York Times article and Congressman Boehlert: on the leadership of the NASA Public Affairs Office, Mould and Acosta. See National Public Radio nuclear power, 194-204 activism against, 195, 199, 200, 202-4,268 cost-effectiveness of, 230-31 fast reactors advantages of, 198, 199, 201-2 history of, 198-99, 199-200 fourth-generation plants, 200-201 fuel, inexhaustibility of, 201 lack of support for, 276 necessity of, 189, 200-201, 202, 204 nuclear waste, 197-99 safety of, 194-95, 196, 201 U.S. leadership, benefits of, 202 and weapons proliferation, 201-2 Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 195 in Paleocene-Eocene thermal 203, 212, 215 as carbon dioxide sink, 118, maximum, 161-64,235, naturaISCIENCE (Web site), 79, 204 120,122 258-59 Newell, Reggie, 14 circulation pattern changes, projected timing of, 274 Newton, Isaac, 64 163-64,235,251-53,259 in runaway greenhouse effect, New York Times, 31, 96, 124, 125, temperature 235, 236 130,131-32,135 and coral reefs, 165 Obama, Barack bad environmental advice given to, 211-12 on censoring of science, 138 election of, x, 242-43 Hansen's support of, x, 95 and hope for political reform, 211-12,243 ignoring of fee-and-dividend plan, 216 inaction on environmental issues, x, 249, 276 Policy recommendations for, 168 oceans. the American Economy PENGUIN BOORS Published by the Penguin Group penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, NEW York 10014, U.S.A. penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P 2Y3 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Books Ltd 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England Penguin Ireland 25 St Stepheds Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi-110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), CUT Airborne and Rosedale RGads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Smrdce Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England First published in the United States of American by The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 2006 Published in Penguin Books 2007 I 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Copyright ® Charles Fishman, 2006 AB rights reserved THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGED THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS: Fishman, Charles, 1961 The Wal-Matt effect: how the world's most powerful company really works-and how it's transforming the American economy I Charles Fishman. That is, in the last five years, having already conquered 3 the supermarket business, Wal-Mart has dramatically increased the pace of its grocery invasion; it has opened an average of 16 new super centers a month for five years. Step inside a Wal-Mart, pause briefly at the threshold-with two, or three, or four acres of brand-new goods before you piled to the ceiling-and at that moment you command a cornucopia from every corner of the globe that wasn't available, not even to the richest and most powerful, one hundred years ago. Supplies like pallets of floor tile and new,
t7 THE WAt-MART EPFECT shrink-wrapped checkout stands were piling up outside on the side walk and in the parking lot. Even at the low end of the 143 THE WAL-MART EFFECT range-150 people working in a new Wal-Mart-50 people who had retail jobs in that county before Wal-Mart arrived immediately lost their jobs (or went to work for Wal-Mart). So in that first year, Wal Mart created a net increase of one hundred new jobs; but they were all Wal-Mart jobs, and other retailers immediately fired people in ° the face of Wal-Mart's arrival. She also established that with the collateral dam age in the wholesale business, the total new jobs a regular Wal-Mart creates is thirty after five years. If Wal-Mart somehow causes poverty, then counties and cities certainly need to think hard before giving the company tax money to help it build new stores. For some reason, no one has activated the TV monitors that squawk, again and again, 'What's new at Wal-Mart!' That efficiency is the source of progress, the progress that creates new jobs and new op portunities that sweep up the people previously displaced. Now Wal-Mart's scale allows it to constantly and quickly extend the area it controls deeper into the factories and offices and decisions of the chain of companies that feed it, across new lines 235 THE WAL-MART EFFECT of business, and across wider and wider geographies. As with other shifts in corporate accountability, we can be absolutely confident that as soon as the new era of megacorporation transparency is in place, not only will we benefit, but the companies themselves will benefit. Wal-Mart can easily stay true to this new 'vision' for a year or two or three. The change is almost unnoticeable,
277 APTERWORD even when looking at the old and new bottles side by side. The New York Times re ported that Southwest operates with seventy-five employees per airplane, com pared to an industry average of one hundred employees per airplane, in 'Survival of the Fittest and the Leanest Becomes Strategy for the Airlines,' by Micheline Maynard, October 30, 2004. job loss, 99-109, 216-17, 249-59 Manotti, John, 89-91,292 Market economy and resource allocation, 202 Wal-Mart effect, 233-36, 145-47 Masten, Mia, 165 Master Lock 216-18 Media Wal-Matt ads, 210-12 Wal-Mart coverage, 7,10-11, 27, 157, 212,227-28 Merchandising at Wal-Mart apparel, 202-3 compared to Target, 212 early, 28-29 pallet display, 66-67, 208 statement, 66, 79 Mexico, 99-100, 216 Wal-Mart in, 6, 214, 235, 302 Microsoft, 15 Mizrabi, Isaac, 211 Monopoly, 83 Monopsony 83 Musical instrument retailing, Wal-Mart effect, 10-11 313 Nabisco, 91-92 Namibia, 167 National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS), 44 National Environmental Trust, 177, 191-92,194 National Labor Committee (NLC), 184-85 New Economy, 164 New York Times, 27, 29, 141, 157 Nickel, ii Nike, 184 Norway, 167 salmon farming in, 171, 174-75, 177, 298 Off-the-dock labor lawsuit, 27, 47 p ac k ag i ng , unboxingproducts, 1-2 pallets, shipping pallet display, 66-67, 68, 70, 80, 208 Paperboard manufacturing, 2 Parker, Loretta Boss, 37 Peoria journal Star, 104-5 Perry, Vanessa, 160-62 pharmacy division, development of, 39-44 Phar-Mot, 38-39 Philadelphia Inquirer, 236 Philips, 99-100 Pietersen, Willie, 68-69 Piggly Wiggly, 114-15, 271 Pizarro, Rodrigo, 167,170-73,176,178-81, 192-95,298 Playtex, 63, 95-96 Poverty New Economy effects, 164 Wal-Mart contribution to (study), 163-66,201-2 Price/pricing 'always low price;' 9, 13, 80, 121, 211, 224, 226, 227, 228 appeal of low prices, 108, 198-99, 214, 218 basic policy, 61-62, 106 consumer savings from, 2, 17, 26-27, 57-58,65-66,81-82,102,115-16,141, 146-53,168-69,181,199-202,204 'every day low pore,' 61, 88, 168, 200, 216,227 global outsourcing to cope with price pressure, 102,104-6, 249-59 high-low; 61 to make a statement, 79-83 perception of value, 5, 120-21 quality versus price, 135 and self-service, 114-16, 271 style versus price, 211-13 too good to be true, 4, 168-69, 181-82 Wal-Mart ability to reset consumer expectations, 5,115-16,121 Wal-Mart effect on retail prices (studies), 141,146-53 See also Supplier/ Wal-Matt relationship Price rollback, Wal-Mart 255 INDEX Price slasher, smiley-faced, 79, 88, 99, 255 Procter & Gamble, 12, 55, 60, 234, 242 and Wal-Mart team, 63 Promotional discounting, 61 Publix Super Markets, 240-41 Puerto Rico, Wal-Mart in, 302 Quality or products, 87, 99-102, 104, 113-14,116,119,122,123-29,135, 249,251-52,255 Quebec See Canada, Wal-Mart in Ragu, 59-61 Ramey; Gary, 51,64, 68 Rand McNally alas, Wal-Mart version, 138-39 Reebok 184 Retail business innovation in, 35 losses/closings after Wal-Mart arrival, 145-46,154,156,159 personal service, 118-20 self-service stores, 114-16 Wal-Mart effect on job creation/job loss (study), 142-46 Wal-Mart effect on retail prices (study), 137-42 Retail Link database, 56, 75-76 Reverse auctions and Makin Bacon dish, 74-75 procedure, 74 Revlon, 95-96,263 Ridlen, Don, 215-16 Ridlen, Nancy, 215-16 Ridlen Adhesives, 215-16 Rite Aid, 44 Roberts, Kevin, 197,210 Roth, Michael, 95-96,287 Russia, 167 Saatchi & Saatchi, 197,210 Safeway, 3-6, 151 Salmon per capita consumption, 168 prices of, 168 species, 169-70 Salmon farming, 169-81 in Canada, 170, 175, 178, 273 in Chile, 170-73,176-81 development, 173-77 difficulties of, 174-75 314 INDEX environmental effects, 171,177-78, 178-79,192-94 in Norway, 171,174-75,177,274 pin-bone-out fillet, 176-77 and price decrease, 168-69.172,174-77 inflation, 146, 152 imports from China, 103-4, 294 items per store, 15 market share in consumer products, 233-34 mentions per day in media, 7 new jobs created in the US., 28 Before Osama left on his trip, he surprised me by purchasing a large twelve apartment building in Jeddah, not too far from the home of his mother, which he said would be our new home. When the king wanted a new building or new roadway constructed, he turned to my grandfather. Every new discovery about her religious life and her fine Sabar family increased my affection. The exterior of out new home appeared a mansion, but we discovered that the inte rior was simple to the point of being stark. Always looking for a new pastime, we made it our business to keep 70 watch. As I studied the brutality of this new game and the distance I would need to sprint to safety, I knew I must run III faster than ever before. u6 We even had money to spend, something new and tantalizing for us, al though we did not obtain the money in a purely honest way. This was something new, so we dashed to see for ourselves. Several of the new soldiers, young men who had been born without sensitivity, enjoyed describing the death throes of those cute little animals. After four or five months, Osama, Allia, and Muhammad al- 293 Arras traveled to Syria to escort Najwa to her new home in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. ENCOUNTER BROADSIDES: a new series of critical pamphlets from Encounter Books. European elites sighed in relief when the new administration imme diately promised a dramatic American turn about on climate change and the abhorrent war 23 ] on terrorism. In Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke is our new czar who supersedes regional ambassadors and State Department section chiefs. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photoctlpying,recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Encounter Books, 9 o o Broadway, Suite 6 o I, New York, New York, 10003. Lanham • Boulder -New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK Published by Bowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
27 CHAPTER TWO Among the report's findings: Pinon pines are dying off in New Mexico's Bande lier National Monument„ Utah's Zion National Park, and Nevada's Lake Mead National Recre ation Area, as heat and drought has weakened the trees, making them more susceptible to attack by the pinon bark beetle. 'Catastrophic weather events, variable climates that affect food and water supplies, new patterns of infec tious disease outbreaks, and emerging diseases linked to ecosystem changes are all associated with global warming and pose health risks.' 'We need a new vision and policy direction to transition from the technologies and practices we relied upon in the twentieth century to the technolo gies and practices America will need in the twenty-first century.... New Orleans was still a sodden ruin in Katrina's wrathful wake. From Every End of This Earth ALSO BY STEVEN V. ROBERTS My Fathers' Houses From This Day Forward (with Cokie Roberts) Eureka FROM EVERY END OF THIS EARTH


13 Families and the New Lives They Made in America


Steven V. Roberts


HAR ER An lmpnnt of Harpe,CollinsPublisben www.harpercollins.com Both of my grandfathers were carpenters, 'makers of things,' who settled in Bayonne, New Jersey. 'That was all new to my parents, being Asian as part of a general minority, empathizing with the experience of black Americans or Latinos or other marginalized populations,' he says. Today Arthur lives in New York and wants to be a filmmaker. And he's achieved his main goal, building a lovely new house for Tuyen in a rural area outside Lancaster. I've always wondered if I 25 26 STEVEN V. ROBERTS FROM EVERY END OF THIS EARTH 27 as rough; we had a really hard time,' says the new mother. They also helped him press his case for political asylum, return to school, and navigate New Jersey: 'At times I'd get lost. As a child in Bayonne, New Jersey, I could walk to Levine's fish market, Irv's candy store, Judicke's bakery, and a dozen other shops run by immigrant families. One alarming trend: some of these entre preneurs are returning home, particularly to China and India, where booming economies are creating new opportunities just as America's shortsighted immigration policies are making it more difficult for immigrants to remain here. The city boasts a new hotel, the Grand Sun, and Tom is such a frequent guest the management saves him the same room, 1211. That brother, Tom's uncle, would occasionally send money back to his family, usually during the New Year's holiday, and Tom recalls that the gifts 'were a big thing to my father.' He also bought a cheap used car and Maggie recalls: 'He was so proud, he wanted to show off his new car, and he paid for the gas with all the dimes and nickels he had collected as tips.' After graduation he joined a small accounting firm in Chinatown and started building a new life in America. He did some research, found a trade association devoted to fireworks, joined up, and went to their convention in New Orleans. When Arthur started playing tennis he badly wanted a new racquet, just like his friends, but his parents refused, saying the old one was good enough: 'It was a lesson in not caring what other people were going to think. Her father's degree was in marketing 100 STEVEN V. ROBERTS and advertising and four years later he got a job in New York, working for Procter & Gamble, the large American company that inspired the term soap opera by sponsoring daytime radio dramas. One week in America and they'd already moved to a new state. If you were Chinese in New York, she answered, you ran one of two things: a restaurant or a cleaners: 'We were cleaners.' The mother of a former student emigrated from Portugal and now sells handicrafts imported from back home to the Portuguese community in Riverside, New Jersey. I met them in November 1975, when I was a correspondent for the New York Times and writing a story about immigration to America. Their stone house was filled with modern conveniences, from kitchen cabinets to a new bath room, all sent by their three children living in Freeport, Long Island, a suburb of New York City. A recent editorial in 164 STEVEN V. ROBERTS the Cleveland Plain Dealer said the city 'needs to re-establish itself as a magnet for new Americans. Today they live in a penthouse overlooking New York's Central Park and vacation in a Florida condo where Sarah's closet, jokes Nick, is bigger than the entire apartment she grew up in. In almost every case no relationship actually existed, but every interested party was served by the deceit: the Jews got out, Israel got new blood, and the Soviets forestalled a propaganda nightmare. 'It's a new life,' she insisted. He kept getting promoted and after two years, the Sterns saved enough to buy a small house, a new car, a 186 STEVEN V. ROBERTS better refrigerator. Nick found a small 'mom-and-pop' company in upstate New York that had a contract with a utility but lacked the financing to finish the project. I came back to New York and we started talking for hours and hours on the phone.' Interviewed at the Republican conven tion, where he was a first-time delegate, he told a reporter for a Jewish community newspaper in New Jersey, 'We are fighting a difficult enemy. I thought all patients dropped off gifts of tamales, boxes of artichokes, or free Christmas trees in exchange for services rendered and that all doctors arrived at work early and left late to accommodate the relentless need; that everywhere, no matter how efficiently the physicians and medical as sistants worked, the tide never subsided; that wave after wave of new, sick and often scared patients poured through the door hundreds in a day, thousands in a week.' After Liliana chose New York University, Kaija-Leena went to Harvard (Marisol stayed on the West Coast and went to the Univer sity of Southern California), but she had to fight the impression that she was a token, that she was only accepted as a result of affirmative action. Sociologist Katherine Donato told the New York Times that as many as 45 percent of the undocu mented workers crossing the border from Mexico are females, more than double the rate twenty years ago. She was a 239 240 STEVEN V. ROBERTS reluctant refugee, a new widow savagely sundered from the life she loved, and her daughter Karin spoke for the family: 'I hated it here; I couldn't stand it. After landing in New York they took a train to Washington, and Marie spent the trip playing with coloring books: 'I was so stupid. After Marie made the deal with the foreign office to quit the Iranians, she took her new travel documents and bought an airline ticket routing her through Berlin and Geneva and on to Washington. And one of her friends in the kayaking club played a new song on a piano, the 'St. Two years later the Tribune summoned Joe back to New York and that move launched 'a terrible year for me,' Ulla recalls: 'This is after Cairo, where I had a wonderful life. I come to New York where everything is rough and different and nobody cares whether I'm there or not.' I was the New York Times correspondent based in Athens at the time, and my wife and I had met Joe at various gatherings of foreign journalists. They were so destitute that as they left that night, we handed them a stack of towels to help furnish their new place. He overstayed his tourist visa, living in California illegally for a year, then returned to Israel, got a new passport, and headed back to San Francisco. -RICHARD HOLBROOKR, The New York Times Book Review 'No American who has lived through the Iraq experience will doubt how important it is for us to understand why and how American presidents take our country to war. RUDMAN, former U.S. Senator (R-NH) and former chairman of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board LESSONS IN DISASTER McGEORGEBUNDY AND THE PATH TO WAR IN VIETNAM GORDON M. GOLDSTEIN AHOLTPAPERSACH TIMES BOOKS / HENRY HOLT AND COWANY NEWYORK Holt Paperbacks Henry Holt and Company, LLC Publishers since 1866 175 Fifth Avenue New York, New York 10010 wwwherrryholt.com We met in midtown Manhattan for a working lunch in a private conference room of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, where Bundy was senior scholar in residence. With respect to the tough conclusions of a new generation of scholars, we will never know Bundy's response. Sargent Shriver, the president-elect's brother-in-law, queried Bundy about his interest in joining the new administration. About a week later Kennedy and Bundy met in New York. Bundy was offered the chance to work with the new secretary of state, Dean Rusk, as the third-ranking official in the State Department, undersecretary for political affairs. It was a CIA plot actively incubated under the Eisenhower administration-which had recently broken off diplomatic relations 35 LESSONS IN DISASTER COUNSELORS ADVISE BUT PRESIDENTS DECIDE with Cuba and then presented to the new president for execution within the first months of his administration. 83 53 LESSONS IN DISASTER The next day another version of the annex was circulated, this time proposing the deployment of 3,600 U.S. ground combat troops to train two new South Vietnamese divisions and an American Special Forces unit to accelerate counterinsurgency training.e' 'Consulting only the President,' Bundy wrote, and coordinat ing 'with the Defense Department through General Krulak-a devoted officer but not a senior policy-maker-Michael and his friends deter mined on and sent out the famous cable of August 24'u This cable, drafted by Hilsman and authorized without the usual vetting and ap provals, sent new instructions to the U.S. ambassador in Saigon, Henry Cabot Lodge. Ambassador Lodge welcomed the new guidance from Washington, immediately instructing the CIA station in Saigon to send emissaries to two disaffected senior officers, General Tran Thien Khiem and General Nguyen Khanh. The new policy should be disclosed quietly, 'as an ini tial step in a long-term program to replace U.S. personnel with trained Vietnamese without impairment of the war effort.' From Johnson's first day as president, Bundy wrote, the new president was consumed with 'the inescapable reality' that he would f,61 LESSONS IN DISASTER face an election in less than a year, compelling him 'to run and win and win as big as possible.' Before any such order could be given, however, Kennedy's close adviser Arthur Schlesinger Jr. decided on his own initia tive to submit a letter to the new president indicating he would step LESSONS IN DISASTER down. A second attack, however, provided the president with a new window of opportu nity. A. J. Langguth, the president of the Crimson, would also go on to cover Vietnam for the New York Times and decades later would publish, among other celebrated works, Our Vietnam, an award-winning narrative history of the war. There was Halberstam, who would go 145 LESSORS IN DISASTER on to cover Vietnam for the New York Times and win a Pulitzer Prize. On February 26, Secretary of State Rusk informed the U.S. embassy in Saigon of the imminent deployment of new U.S. forces. Bundy sought to explain Johnson in terns familiar from his own New England upbringing. It proposes this new land commitment at a time when our 201 I I I I I , ii, ~ r LESSONS IN DISASTER troops are entirely untested in the kind of warfare projected.... These works include David M. Barrett, Uncertain Warriors: Lyndon Johnson and His Vietnam Advisers (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1993); Larry Berman, Lyndon Johnson's War: The Road to Stalemate in Vietnam (New York: W. W. Nor ton, 1989) and Planning a Tragedy: The Americanization of the War in Vietnam (New York: W. W Norton, 1982); Lloyd C. Gardner, Pay Any Price: Lyndon Johnson and the Wars for Vietnam (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee,1995); Leslie H. Gelb and Richard K. Betts, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1979); Doris Kearns Goodwin, Lyndon Johnson and the American Dream (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1976 and 1991); George C. Herring, America's NOTES Longest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950-1975, 3rd ed. (New York: Mc Graw Hill, 1996); Stanley Karnow, Vietnam: A History (New York: Viking, 1983); Neil Sheehan, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam (New York: Random House, 1988); Brian VanDeMuk, Into the Quagmire: Lyndon John son and the Escalation of the Vietnam War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991); and Marilyn B. Young, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (New York: Harper Collins, 1991). A 281 NOTES comprehensive effort to demonstrate the existence of a Kennedy withdrawal plan has been made by John Newman in JFK and Vietnam: Deception, Intrigue, and the Struggle for Power (New York: Warner Books, 1992). Another significant study of Kennedy's extrication plans and tactics is Howard Jones, Death of a Generation: How the Assassinations of Diem and JFK Prolonged the Vietnam War (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003). He received his BA, MIA, MPhil, and PhD degrees in political science and international relations from Columbia University, and his articles have appeared in The New York Times, Newsweek, and The Washington Post. ALSO BY PETER W GALBRAITH The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War without End UNINTENDED How War in Iraq Strengthened America's Enemies









Simon & Schuster Peter W. Galbraith YORK LONDON TORONTO SYDNEY Simon & Schuster 1230 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY 10020 Copyright O 2008 by Peter W Galbraith All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form whatsoever. The Potemkin Surge At the beginning of 2007, President Bush announced a new strategy for Iraq. The new troops, the president announced in January, would be deployed to Bagh dad and to Anbar Governorate, the purely Sunni province that was the seat of the insurgency. To implement his new strategy, Bush appointed General David Petraeus to be the top U.S. com mander in Iraq. With a more professional team and a new strategy, Bush hoped that violence would decline sufficiently so as to give Iraqis the time and space to make progress on the political and military fronts. In 2004, Petraeus, as the American general responsible for building a 20 Unintended Consequences The Potemkin Surge 21 new Iraqi Army, oversaw the distribution of assault rifles and other weapons. According to Feith, George Bush had approved a Defense Department plan to avoid a prolonged military occupation by launching a new Iraqi government but that the plan was buried by policy disputes among senior of ficials. Some were part of a larger scheme to revamp Iraqi society by privatizing basic industries and creating new institutions. 94 Unintended Consequences school, or employ the new arrivals. The new parliament then elected Gill as president, but the military simmered with anger over its defeat. Thus the PKK has every incentive to launch new attacks and the more spectacular the better. (Once banned, these parties are established again under a new name. This, in turn, might diminish Iran's role in Lebanon and possibly create a new opportunity to make progress on a Syrian-Israeli peace treaty. 154 Unintended Consequences Nationalism and Nation Building 155 1950s and the 1960s, the leaders of the new countries agreed that changing Africa's colonial borders, as illogical as they were, was a formula for chaos and endless conflict. Vieira de Mello heard the complaints and asked me to design a new system of government. He is currently the Senior Diplomatic Fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and a contributor to the New York Review of Books. They met with Robert Willumstad, nonexecutive board chairman, and Morris Offit, a fairly new and widely respected board member with a financial background. That afternoon at the Four Seasons-on his 80th birthday, of all days-Greenberg was having a new kind of power lunch. Morvillo is a criminal lawyer whose new assignment was to keep Greenberg out ofjail, something he had failed to do for Martha Stewart, his last celebrity client. The problem is particularly acute in fields like banking and insurance, where the ultimate risks-loan defaults or policy claims---are not truly knowable until long after the sale is made, and often S Fallen Giant do not happen until the seller has moved on to a new territory or even a new company. It was a haven for refugees, rogues, and adventurers of all kinds and from all parts of the world, fleeing wars, revo lutions, and oppressive new regimes. In a career of nearly 40 years, serving throughout China before moving to New York City in 1941, Freeman had a variety of responsibilities until he retired in 1960 as vice chairman of the board of C.V. Starr & Company. One may speculate how it will change now that Hank is gone and AIG has a new CEO in Martin Sullivan. About the only noticeable change is a new transparency, an openness marked more by the new CEO's personal ity than anything else. I had an office near his and would see him during his annual New York sojourn, long after Starr died. 48 Fallen Giant So on January 1, 1943, the OSS took up Starr's offer and started the New York edition of the Shanghai Evening Post and Mercury as an intelligence-gathering operation. From the China and New York bases, 'data on over 5,000 individuals had been assembled and carefully edited covering ... Later, John Roberts recalls George being designated liaison in New York because the Chairman of Texaco, AAU's biggest account, said American International needed a liai son office in New York, since we can't always depend on communications with Shanghai. Today, the presumption is that it is stored in the bowels of AIG headquarters at 70 Pine Street in New Yorli 68 Fallen Giant Kluge was born in Riga, Latvia, of Russian parents, in 1912. The domestic business would be head quartered in New York, and the international business would be based in 82 Fallen Giant Bermuda. The first to join was New Hampshire Insurance Company, which had a problem with a threatened unfriendly takeover by a major shareholder who wanted to move the company to New Orleans. New Hampshire appealed to American International for help, and Greenberg negotiated the purchase of a significant block of the com pany's stock from the dissident shareholder in 1966. New Hampshire prospered over the long run. In the mid-1970s, Murphy helped island politicians draft a new insurance law for Bermuda that made the colony even more attractive to U.S. companies and insurers, according to David Gibbons, a former Bermuda premier, and Mansfield 'James' Brock, a former financial secre tary. 'What do you think you are ln~ 108 Fallen Giant doing bringing a new employee into my meeting?' he asked. Paul or Jimmy, I don't remember which, said: 'Ron, as the new kid on the block, why don't you carry these bonds back to New York? We can dispose of them there.' The monthly meeting on August 30,1982, was the very day a new Forbes magazine was released, featuring me in the 'As I See It' section, where a guest discusses his views, and including photos. MetLife, New York Life, Ace they are competitors that are involved extensively overseas. For the same reason, because of this new AIG book, Wooster would not let me see any photos of Starr , Greenberg, and so on, or any of the oral memories written by old-timers. 172 Fallen Giant April 26: -New York regulators say they are investigating whether AIG wrongly pocketed tens of millions of dollars that should have gone into a state workers' compensation fund. Ironically, as Spitzer told me, New York got nothing for his efforts on the worker's compensation funds because in New York it is based on losses rather than premiums paid. The New York attor ney general called him a criminal on national television. He 202 Fallen Giant The Great Survivor Vows to Bounce Back 203 took the business public, expanded it to numerous new countries, and acquired huge businesses so that by the time of his retirement it was the largest insurance company in history and one of the largest companies in the world in any industry. And the foundation itself may well be restructured, in which case Greenberg and others would be removed as directors and a new board appointed. Company is launched March 13, AIG board asks Greenberg to resign as CEO AIG absof he Martin J. Sullivan is named parent, AIRCO, as Greenberg's and Ilats on the successor New York Stock Exchange March 29, board picks Frank Zarb as chairman Trade in services amendments are AIG buys International July, Greenberg sues AIG to passed by Lease Finance AID purchases get back art and other Congress Corporation SunAmerica possessions 1989 1990 1999 2005 a January, Donald P. Kanak, vice chairman, resigns January, a series of lawsuits between AIG and C.V. Stan ensues over companies Starr writes insurance with; basically they decide to go separate ways February 9, AIG announces a $1.6 Index

A Ace, Ltd, 156,194 Adams, Cindy, 167, 196-197 Alders, John, 41,104 Aidinoff, Bernard, 75,164 AIG, see American International Group Aircraft leasing, 143 American Asiatic Underwriters (AAU),17,22-23,36 American Foreign Insurance Associa tion (AFIA),120 American General, 144 American Home Assurance Company, 83-84,91,97-98 American International Assurance Company, 57-58 American International Group (AIG), see also American International Group, Board of Directors corporate culture of, 10, 34, 81, 134-135,156-158,203 Deferred Compensation Profit Participation Plan and, 7-9, 14, 141,168,188-194 diversity and, 30-31 efforts against nationalization of industries, 126-129 future of, 159, 184, 203-204 General Re and finite insurance, 2, 158-159,164-165,176-178 „, governments and politicians and, 9-10,114-115 Greenberg's transformation of, 4-9, 21,30-31,33-34,49,88, 142-145 growth since IPO, 88-89 history of, 13-14 legal battles with C. V. Starr, 194-195 logo of, 141 other investigators of, 3 overseas origins and business practices of, 35-39, 156-157 settles and pays fine, 173-174 SICO and, 88 Spitzer's charges against Greenberg and,2-3,12-13,155,162-163, 170-178,203 American International Group, Board of Directors: accounting practices and, 12-13 Brightpoint and PNC issues and, 164 hand-picked by Greenberg,157, 161 Greenberg's ouster and, 3-4, 10-11,155,162,165-166, 202 succession planning and, 166-168 222 Index
American International Reinsurance Company, Inc. (AIRCO): acquires Globe & Rutgers Fire Insurance Company, 82-83 established, 82 SICO and, 87-88,186 American International Underwriters (AIU): Chinese Communists and, 61-63 inJapan, 53,57-59,63-64 opens New York office, 39 reenters China after World War II, 54-55,59 American International Underwriters Association (AIUA), 82 American International Underwriters Overseas, Ltd. axviii 0, FR0DUCTION Worst of all, however, is the rapid increase in smuggling to Iraq and the concomitant erosion of the sanctions. Throughout the period of sanctions there have been countries and companies that have been willing to sell Iraq anything it wants. However, the liberalization of the oil-for-food program over the last three to four years has made it easier for Baghdad to sneak illegal goods in and seems to have made many countries more will ing to flout the remaining sanctions. However, the Reagan adminis tration refused to further censure Iraq or even reduce its own support and blocked a congressional resolution that would have imposed sanctions on Iraq. In theory, the policy was intended to be a carrot-and-stick approach, in which carrots (political and economic incentives) would be used to entice the Iraqis into ending their pursuit of WMD and human rights abuses, while holding out the stick of sanctions if they did not mend The Worm Turns 29 their ways.' Second, that in the wake of the colossal defeat of Operation Desert Storm, the Iraqis would cooperate readily with the United Nations to meet its conditions for the lifting of sanctions. Because none of these things proceeded as quickly as the United Nations had envisioned, the sanctions remained in place long after they were expected to have been lifted. Especially early on in the Bush, Sr., and Clinton administrations, when Iraq was weak and the sanctions were strong, there was little evidence that regionalists could use to make a case. But Washington Containment and Beyond 59 was not going to rely on the sanctions alone. In marked contrast to the regime change program, the containment strategy that the administration had been forced into adopting while it waited anxiously for Saddam's fall was working well: the inspectors were destroying huge chunks of Iraq's WMD programs (far more than Desert 64 IRAQ A\ 1) 11113 t \IIRD 9l \'1'If8 Storm had), the sanctions were keeping Saddam weak and focused on his internal problems, and the Iraqi military was running to stand still. Rumor spread quickly to Iraq that UNSCOM, however, would not oppose the United States and suggest transitioning to long-term monitoring (which would have triggered the lifting of sanctions), even though the inspectors believed Iraq to be fundamentally disarmed. The hawks, led by Indyk and Parris, countered that the United States could hold the line for as long as it wanted if the administration was willing to make Iraq a priority and push back hard whenever Iraq or one of its advocates challenged the sanctions, inspections, or other elements of containment. The international acclaim it enjoyed threatened to undermine his efforts to get the sanctions lifted, but if he accepted it, he would be giving up his control of Iraq's revenues to the United Nations-and he knew that the United Nations would force him to spend that money on humanitarian supplies for the Iraqi people rather than weapons and perks for his loyalists. As part Containment and Beyond 81 of the regime's efforts to circumvent the U.N. sanctions, Baghdad opened a major smuggling route across the Habur River into Turkey. But because of the increasing sanctions fatigue, Iraqi propaganda 86 IRAQ AND TI{t. Ultimately, the deal Primakov struck met U.S. de mands-Iraq agreed to allow all of the inspectors back in, in return for Russian promises to work to speed UNSCOM's progress and to convince the United Nations to set a timetable for the lifting of sanctions. In addition, during the two and a half years between my NSC tours, I had written unclassified pieces arguing that limited military force could be used to compel Saddam to respect his U.N. obligations; that the United C'ontainmrnt and Beyond 95 States needed to revise containment to focus on the military sanctions, giv ing up the economic sanctions to rebuild a consensus among key U.S. allies to be able to employ force against Iraq whenever Saddam tried to subvert the inspections or sanctions; and that a sustained air campaign along the lines finally adopted (albeit too briefly) during Desert Fox should be launched to strike at Saddam's control over Iraq whenever he violated the UNSC resolutions. Many cases of illegal activity were referred to the U.N. Sanctions Committee, which did nothing about them. By the end tot IRAQ ASD THE I\1TED STATES of 2000, Washington found itself virtually powerless to stop the rapid ero sion of the sanctions. I noted that the steps that would be necessary for the latter option would be far more oner ous than they first appeared because of the unwillingness of any country other than the United States to confront Iraq or impose penalties on states violating the sanctions. Instead the administration announced that while it would continue to study options for regime change, it would move ahead with an overhaul of the U.N. system known as 'smart sanctions.'' The regime's highest offi cials took this corruption to unparalleled heights, using the sanctions as an Iraqi State and Society 135 opportunity to enrich themselves at the expense of the Iraqi peoples' In July 1999, Forbes magazine estimated Saddam's personal wealth at $6 bil lion. Life would not have been pleasant in such a state-as noted above, there were still plenty of direct effects from the sanctions that would have persisted-but Iraq's circumstances would have been far better. resolutions could have the sanctions quickly lifted and the Americans off his back, leaving him free to reassert control over Kurdistan and terrorize the population, destroying everything the Kurds have built since 1991.' Iraq's conventional armed forces remain weak as a result of their drubbing in the Gulf War and the protracted period under sanctions. Saddam apparently was des perate to demonstrate to his power base that he could strike out against Iraq's enemies despite the oppressive sanctions. The picture is even more intriguing because if Saddam had come clean in 1991 and fully cooperated, he could have had the sanctions lifted in a 176 IRAQ 'TODAY matter of months and within a few years could have completely reconsti tuted Iraq's WMD programs. As noted in Chapter 2, Saddam never expected the sanctions to last or the in spectors to do much damage to his program. By 199(-97, Saddam's situation had improved enough that he be lieved he could keep his WMD programs and still get the sanctions lifted, albeit over a longer period of time than he had originally envisioned. Mean while, Saddam's military eroded under the impact of the sanctions. The Egyptians would oppose efforts to tighten the sanctions as unfairly hurting the Iraqi people without hurting Saddam, as well as hurting other Arab countries, such as Jordan. In fact, the Russians would like to see all of the sanctions lifted because it would mean a be- 206 IRAQ TODAY nanza for Russian firms, especially Russia's foundering military industries, which would find themselves flooded with Iraqi orders for tanks, MiGs, and everything else that can kill people. However, a mistake of the original sanctions was not to have stipulated this up front. Finally, there are many other coun tries that would like to see all of the sanctions on Iraq lifted because they dis like the idea of the United Nations imposing such strict sanctions on any country (because they might be next) and because they are weary of con stant crises with Saddam. The Erosion of Contninrnent 225 They will fight any U.S. effort to tighten the sanctions. They publicly say that they recognize the need for the military sanctions, but their actions often speak otherwise. Chinese firms have violated the sanctions by selling equipment to Iraq that would en hance its military capabilities. In addition, this ap proach to revising sanctions overlooks the considerable political influence Baghdad now wields as a result of its deliberate manipulation of oil-for food contracts and smuggling to reward its advocates. Because these secondary sanctions would be so draconian, every time the United States intelligence community found a country guilty of smuggling with Iraq, its advocates within the U.S. government, its lobbyists, and its allies would go 228 '1'118 OPTIONS to great lengths to get an exemption. The sec ondary sanctions would undermine U.S. efforts to convince other countries The Erosion of Containment 231 to engage in free-trade practices. Finally, there would be the domestic political costs of sustaining such a policy, including an Arab-American 232 'I'll E OP'T'IONS population that would grow increasingly more unhappy with seemingly endless U.S. military actions against Iraq; greater grumbling from the armed services about sustaining low-intensity warfare against Iraq; and the oppor tunity costs of not being able to pursue other foreign policy interests because of the need to concentrate on enforcement of the Iraq sanctions-not to mention how Congress and the administration could justify paying billions of dollars to Syria and hundreds of millions of dollars to Iran to bribe them not to smuggle with Iraq, despite the fact that both continue to support in ternational terrorism and pursue WMD themselves. There is still a great deal of affection for inspec tions, and many commentators continue to trot them out as a viable substi tute for, or complement to, sanctions in a revived containment scheme.' Enshrining the notion of lesser compliance for a partial lifting of sanctions in the resolution is the monu ment to this simple fact. In particular, if we again wanted to coerce Saddam into respecting U.N. sanctions or U.S. red lines, a powerful air campaign would likely do the trick. While they are well aware of the depredations of the regime, they believe that the sanctions are also to blame, if only for making those depredations possible. pp. 40-45; Butter, 'Dancing on Sanctions' Grave'; Butter, 'The Baghdad Dilemma'; 'Can Sanctions Be 4.54 INDEX chemical weapons (CW), 31, 123, 220 in Afghan approach, 295, 314, 324-25 containment and, xxvi, 71, 216, 236 deterrence and, 248-49, 251-52, 259-60,263-65,269,271,277-79 in Iran-Iraq War, 19-20, 22-24, 251-52,259-60,269,347,349 in Iraqi threat, 148, 168-72, 174, 177, 179-80 Persian Gulf War and, 37, 71, 248-49, 263-65, 271, 377, 459n-60n, 463n U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 341, 347-48,373,376 Cheney, Dick, 37, 105, 342 China, People's Republic of, 22, 56, 79, 100-101,105,206,246 containment and, xxviii, 88-89, 101, 216-17,224-27,231,234-35,242, 364,412-13 deterrence and, 249-51 Iraqi threat and, 150, 168, 175 Christopher, Warren, 65, 72-74, 78-79, 86 Churchill, Winston, xv, 13, 423 Clinton, Bill, 55-58, 86-87, 105-6, 188, 196,284 containment and, 56-57, 64-65, 67, 71, 106,108,218-19,412 Kurds and, 82, 146 regime change and, 94-95, 97, 99, 101-2,188 Cohen, Eliot A., 296, 470n Cold War, xii, xxiv, 56,206 covert action in, 285, 288 deterrence and, 24445, 249-51, 253, 270,279 Companions, The (Murafigin), 118, 285 Congress, U.S., xiii, 20, 28, 56, 97, 102, 157,463n containment and, 232, 238 Iraqi threat and, 173-74 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, 238, 365-67,419 constructive engagement, 27-37 containment, containment policy, xiv, xxiv-xxix, 56-80, 87-96, 100-101, 103-8,202-7,411-14,439n-40n, 443n covert action and, 66, 219, 281, 292 deterrence and, 211-12, 243-47, 268, 279 doves on, 56, 58, 65, 70, 243 dual, 66 erosion of, xxiv-xxviii, 103-4, 202, 211-47,281,335,412-13 European views on, 203-5 goals of, xxv, 242, 243 intifadah and, 68, 70 Iraqi threat and, 148, 157 Persian Gulf War and, xxv-xxvi, 52-54,151,211-12,217,224,233, 235-36,241 regime change and, 56-58, 66, 78, 91 regional perspectives on, 181, 185, 187-88,193-96,199-200,202 revision of, xxix, 413-14 smuggling and, xxviii-xxix, 101, 103, 106,213-24,226-30,232,236, 241-42,246 of Soviet Union, xxiv-xxv use of force in, 64, 66-67, 69-72, 79-80,95-96,107,224,227,229, 231-32,243,441n U.S.-led Iraq invasion and, 212-13, 226,236-39,335,337,344,366, 369-70,374,413-14 see also no-fly zones; sanctions; weapons inspection conventional forces and weapons, 448n Afghan approach and, 311-12,314, 316-17,321,326 containment and, 187, 216 deterrence and, 244, 257, 262-65, 270, 276 in Iran-Iraq War, 19, 22, 24, 159-60, 162-66 in Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, 162, 164-65 Iraqi threat and, 14'9, 158-68, 175, 178 in Persian Gulf War, 37-39, 41, 43-46, 158-67,262-65,306-7,315, 317-20,342,344-46,352,373, 414-15,435n and rebuilding Iraq, 393-96, 398-99, 403-4,408,410 and regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 189-90 sizes of, 161, 1634 in U.S.-led Iraq invasion, xv, 336, 338-39,342-46,348-52,357,360, 362,373-75,377,380,384-86,392, 398, 418, 469n covert action, xxiii, 67-68, 281-93, 328 assassinations and, 282-87, 289-92, 414 containment and, 66, 219, 281, 292 incoups, 72-76,282,287-91,414 difficulty of, 281-92 legal obstacles to, 283-84 practical problems in, 284-87 regime change and, 96, 98, 281-82, 286-87,290-92 and regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 187, 191, 193, 200 against Saddam, xxix, 53, 59, 72-75, 78-80,96,98,187,191,193,200, 207,245,282,284-92,365,414 in U.S.-led Iraq invasion, 335, 365 as wrong policy for now, 290-91 Cuba, 206, 285,288 Cuban Missile Crisis, 249, 251, 253, 368 Defense Department, U.S., 29, 78, 82, 105, 282, 384, 441n, 468n Afghan approach and, 294, 333 Afghan War and, 297-98, 463n deterrence and, 280, 415 Persian Gulf War and, 37, 45, 49, 342 regime change and, 91, 96, 98 Defensive Shield, Operation, 152, 190 Desert Fox, Operation, 92-95, 119, 203, 231, 235, 241, 311, 313, 375, 463n deterrence and, 267-68, 270-71 Desert Shield, Operation, 37, 39, 41, 342 Desert Storm, Operation, 17, 41-43, 46, 48,52,56,59,63-64,132,158,167, 172,203,264-65,286,288,295, 306-7,314-17,319-20,323-24, 338,341,346,358,375,414-15 deterrence, 207, 242-82, 292, 413, 443n advantages of, 245-47 BW and, 248-49, 263-65, 277-79 containment and, 211-12, 24347, 268, 279 CW and, 248-49,251-52,259-60, 263-65,269,271,277-79 danger of, 103, 243-81, 336 decision-making process in, 252-68 European views on, 203-5, 246 historical failure of, 249-51 Iran-Iraq War and, 251-53, 255-56, 258-61,265,269,274 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, 250, 256, 261-63,265-69,272,274-75,278, 459n Iraqi threat and, 177-78 nuclear weapons and, xxix, 244-45, 248-53,255,259,263-68,270-80, 335,366,415-16,419,422 Persian Gulf War and, 246, 248-50, 253-56,262-74,278 regional perspectives on, 181, 187, 193, 202 risks and costs of, 415-16 Saddam and, xxix, 244-81, 327, 335, 337,366,376,415-16,419,422-23, 458n-59n threat of military force in, 244, 248-52, 262, 264, 267, 272 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, 244-45, 271,279,335-37,366,376 Dubayy, Emirate of, 101, 214 Duelfer, Charles, 173, 175, 233 Dulaymi, Muhammad Madhlum ad-, 75-76 Dun, `Izzat Ibrahim ad-, 35-36, 186 economy, economic issues, xi-xvi, 13-14,65,111-12,254,355,400, 422 in Afghan approach, 295-96, 312, 325-26,329 in constructive engagement, 27-29, 32-33,36 in containment, 52-53, 58-61, 68-69, 71,74-75,95,100-101,106,125, 167,178,211,213-22,227-29, 231-32,234,236,238,241,243, 276,441n in covert action, 282, 292 in deterrence, 247, 257, 260-61, 267, 269,273-74,415 European views on, 204-6 Iran-Iraq War and, 16, 18, 24-25, 27, 31 and Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, xi-xii, 32-33,36,180,261 480 INDEX economy, economic issues (cant.) in erosion of containment, 211-13, 232-39,245 Iraqi obstruction of, 79-80, 88-92, 100, 213,233,235,364-65,370,411-12, 463n Iraqi threat and, 151, 168-77,411 in Persian Gulf War, 52-54,264, 266 rebuilding Iraq and, 394-96, 403 in regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 187-88 sanctions and, 68-69, 75, 79, 89-91, 100,213,233-34 use of coercive force in, 188, 235-39 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, 337, 364-65,376 weapons of mass destruction (WMD), xi, xiii-xv, 17, 26, 85, 103, 107, 113, 119,133,205-6,332,380,411-13 Afghan approach and, 314, 324-26, 329 constructive engagement and, 28-32 containment and, xxv-xxvi, 57, 61-64, 67,71-72,76-77,79,90,93,140, 168-77,187,212-14,216,218,232, 235-36, 238, 240-41, 244, 246, 394, 411-13 covert action and, 291-92 destruction of, when discovered, 240-41 deterrence and, xxix, 244-46, 248-53, 259-60,263-67,269-79 giving them to terrorists, 178-80 importance of, to Saddam, 175-77 Iran-Iraq War and, 19-20, 24, 169-71, 177, 347, 349 Iraqi threat and, 148-49, 153, 168-80, 411,413 Persian Gulf War and, 36-39,41-42, 46,52-53,63-64,169-74,178, 24'9,263-66,270-71 in present and future, 177-78 rebuilding and, 391, 393-94, 397, 408 in regional perspectives on U.S.-Iraq policy, 187, 200-202 U.S. led Iraq invasion and, xiv-xv, xxx, 244-45,335-37,340,343-44, 347-51,358-59,364-78,383-84, 417-19 see also specific weapons of mass de struction Webster, William, 37 Wiley, Winston, xii, 29 World Trade Center, February 1993 terrorist attack on, 156 World Trade Organization (WTO), 230, 242 World War I, xv, 3, 5-6, 12, 21, 194 World War 11, 3, 123, 308-10, 324, 349, 366,385,400,408,421-23 air power in, 309-10, 314 and U.S. presence in Persian Gulf, 12-14 Yasin, Abdul Rahman, 156 Yemen, 15, 28, 184, 217, 383, 401 Zafaraniyah manufacturing complex, 64 Zogby International, 189-90, 192, 199 ABOUT THE AUTHOR KENNETH M. By early 1988, a U.S. campaign of economic sanctions was causing severe hardships among Panama's poor. So why the 'state of war' resolution? 'In all likelihood,' Quigley wrote, 'the motive was to rally the popula tion behind General Noriega by showing the United States trying to bring him down through military pressure and financial sanctions.' Washington imposed economic sanctions that virtually Notes to Pages 10-13 243 destroyed the economy, the main burden falling on the poor nonwhite majority. More economic sanctions or a military strike did not 'DEATH TO AMERICA' AND 'CAN I HAVE YOUR AUTOGRAPH?' 21 worry him. It took four months to pass minimal sanctions watered down to prevent a Russian veto-forbidding exports to Iran that could help its nuclear program. Presi dent Clinton, under pressure from a Republican Congress, canceled 70 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES the oil deal and stiffened sanctions against Iran. But growing trade and investment might produce big commissions for other well-connected veterans, and a general collapse of the Iranian economy under sanctions would benefit no one. Despite sanctions in effect since the hostage crisis barring the sale of U.S. arms and items with po tential military use, U.S. trade with Iran in other areas was substantial. Meanwhile, the American Israel Public Affairs Com mittee (AIPAC), the powerful pro-Israeli interest group, lobbied to tighten sanctions on Iran, and for legislation that called for punishing other countries if they invested in Iran's petroleum industry. The administration also dragged its feet about imple menting the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, which should have been trig gered by a $20 million deal signed by French, Russian, and Malaysian oil companies the previous September. He praised former president Clinton for taking 'a positive step' toward Iran the previous year by slightly easing sanctions and having his secretary of state acknowledge the U.S. role in the 1953 coup that restored the shah to the throne. Rice said Iran could decide on 'one of two paths': integration into the international com munity or 'progressively stronger political and economic sanctions.' But the talks were limited to Iraq, and Iraqi officials were present throughout as chaperones: Mean while, financial sanctions imposed by the United States and the United Nations compounded Iran's economic problems and led some in Wash ington and Europe to argue that Iran could be pressured this way into suspending its nuclear program. In practice, this amounted to allowing the U.N. sanctions to continue to wither away. Indeed, the rapid growth of these threats to Qadhafi's reign was an important element in his decision, after Zooz, to give up his support for terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction so 152 I THE THREATS WE FACE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST that the United Nations would lift its sanctions and allow Libya back into the good graces of the international community.' When the Eu ropeans first sat down with the Iranians to discuss their nuclear pro gram in 2003 (and only because the European Union threatened Iran with economic sanctions), they found that the Iranians had no technical studies to back their claims that it was more cost-effective for them to build and operate nuclear power plants than natural gas plants-which are more cost-effective everywhere else on the planet and would be so especially for Iran, which has the second largest de posits of natural gas in the world. Many seem to understand that the various 368 I A REGION OF CRISES international sanctions against their country (including the unilat eral American sanctions) have contributed to their economic prob lems, and they know full well that only massive trade, aid, and investment from the international community can quickly revive their moribund economy. In any case, as 2009 closes, there is now significantly reduced Western pressure for sanctions and embargoes to head off a nuclear Iran than in the past - given that the United States finds itself in the unprecedented posi tion of moderating European states eager to press Ahmadinejad more aggressively. In return, the Iranians asked that their coun try not be on the terrorism list or designated part of the 'Axis of Evil'; that all sanctions end; that the United States support Iran's claims for reparations for the Iran-Iraq War as part of the overall settlement of the Iraqi debt; that they have access to peaceful nuclear technology; and that the United States pursue anti-Iranian terrorists, including 'above all' the MEK. When a majority of the small and medium-sized member companies in the National Asso ciation of Manufacturers (NAM) adopted a resolution calling upon the Bush administration and Congress to take direct action against China's [ 44 1 Dangerous Business manipulation of its currency, the larger corporations, most of which do business in China, swatted down the resolution at a NAM board meeting. Capka also wrote TxDOT that the FR WA would impose additional oversight on Texas for two years to ensure that public entities were not again allowed to L 74 1 Dangerous Business bid against private firms on road projects in that state. A majority of Americans, however, were against it. In August 2007, former Deputy U.S. Trade 16E ] Dangerous Business Representative Robert Lighthizer testified before the House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee that the WTO had ruled against the United States in forty of forty-seven cases in which it was a defendant, which is highly significant because most of these losses have forced the United States to change its laws and administrative rules. If any of these producers or nations retaliates against such action, which is legiti mate and congruent with WTO treaty obligations, the United States should immediately file a formal complaint at the WTO seeking full monetary 1 180 I Dangerous Business damages. 4 I FLEECED FACT: Hillary Clinton says that the United States should retaliate against Iran if it attacks the UAE, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia. Why is Obama voting against repealing the AMT even as he criticizes it PRESIDENT OBAMA: WHAT WOULD HE DO? I 25 publicly and each backs legislation to delay its full imposition until after the election? Because he wants to be the one to repeal it, so that he can an nounce it as a middle-class tax cut to mask his huge tax increases. He went on to attack the Bush administration for not coming 'through with the funding,' but he added that 'to wage war against the en tire law for that reason is not an education policy, and Democrats need to realize that.' Ever sensitive to the plight of minority Americans-often to the detriment of the needs of the majority- 46 I FLEECED they worry that an atmosphere of tension over terrorism could lead to racism and hate -crimes against Muslims. So they try to quiet the voices of vigilance against terrorist threat, lest anyone feel targeted because of his or her ethnic background. The Faris case allowed Mr. Ashcroft to claim another high-profile victory in the cam paign against terrorism.... Clinton's interest is in a business funded by a country that blatantly discriminates against women, abuses workers in vio- 154 I FLEECED lation of international law, outlaws unions, deports strikers, and bans Is raelis and their products from ever entering the country. This race to the bottom quickly pitted states against one another to see who could offer consumers the least protection and have the best chance of at tracting credit card company headquarters. By June 2007, The Washington Post was reporting that 192 I FLEECED 'possibly as many as fifty former Guantanamo detainees have returned to the battlefield to fight against the United States and its allies.' How much did the senators who voted against FDA regulation of tobacco-all Republicans-receive in contributions from Big Tobacco? Plenty. Then there are the intrepid souls who took tobacco's money-but then voted against the cigarette companies and supported FDA regulation: HEY TOOK ' HE MONEY AND RAN (continued) Tobacco Contributions (2001-2007) Senator odd Gregg (R-N.H.) They dismiss moderate Republicans as 'establishment types,' discuss who should be 'our candidate' in forthcom ing congressional races and seem resigned to the fact that their lives will be measured out in an unrelenting series of battles against liberal evils of one sort or another. THE EVER-RIGHTER NATION What will become of the Right? It is worth admitting that the conservative movement's two main crusades-against big government and moral decay have so far been more successful as rallying cries than as policies. Throughout the campaign against Ann Richards rumors circulated about his wild youth-about how he'd been arrested for drunk driving, experimented with drugs, knocked up this or that girl, got high at his father's inauguration.... But it had much more to do with the mounting backlash against liberalism-and with the determination of a ever larger band of conservatives to fashion that backlash into a coher ent movement. In 19go, he hatched a plan to get Tommy Robinson, an Arkansas congressman, to run against Clinton for the governor ship of Arkansas. They turned viciously against him in r99o when he became governor and decided to raise taxes after discovering an appalling budget mess. CHAPTER 8 WITH US OR AGAINST US: THE RIGHT AND THE WAR AGAINST TERROR N HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEECH totheRepublican National Conven tion n in Philadelphia on August 3, 2000, George W Bush focused on a subject that was bound to delight his audience: his disappointment with the Clinton administration. The House of Lords was also informed by Baroness Shirley Williams (who was then mar ried to a prominent Harvard political scientist, the late Richard Neustadt) that the Bush administration's policy is 'propelled to some extent by what I can only describe as a fundamentalist Christian and fundamentalist Jewish WITH US OR AGAINST US • 203 20./ Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice at Buckingham Palace, 2003 Karl Rove, Mark McKinnon and Karen Hughes just after the South Carolinaprimary, 2000 George W Bush conducting a prayer before a cabinet meeting Patrick Henry College, a university for bomescboolers John Ashmft, listening to George Bush at theAmencan Enterprise Institute dinner in February 2oo3, havingjust sung the National Anthem The annual march to protest the Roe v Wade decision by the Supreme Court, 2004 WITH US OR AGAINST US 0 213 that was unveiled in September. Yet the plain fact is that this more Tom DeLay, the House Majority Whip; Dennis Hastert, the House Speaker; and Nancy Pelosi, the House Minmty Leader, outside the White House, March 2003 214 • THE RIGHT NATION WITH US OR AGAINST US • 215 vigorously unilateralist approach came as music to the ears of conservative America. The Far Right had long railed against the United Nations as an organ of world government, but many mainstream Republicans (as well as some Democrats like Patrick Moynihan) had begun to balk at the UN's general flakiness. Some neocons, such as Robert Kagan, preferred the SIB - THE RIGHT NATION WITH US OR AGAINST US • 219 term 'hegemony' (meaning that you merely control other people's foreign policies, not their whole states), but others became explicit imperialists. Stuck in their compounds in Baghdad, American troops, who had little training or aptitude for peacekeeping, began to send furious letters 220 • THE RIGHT NATION WITH US OR AGAINST US • 221 and e-mails back home, complaining about their delayed returns. The stories are not of soldiers massacring civilians but of firefighters rushing into burning buildings, of the passengers on Flight 93 who revolted against 248 • THE RIGHT NATION their hijackers. But another faction supports activist 252 • THE RIGHT NATION judges against the legislature, provided of course that they strictly enforce the constitution on things like guns and property rights. Social conservatives, nevertheless, rallied behind Simon, a rich businessman with little political experience whose main recommendation was that he was against abortion. Norm Coleman, who won a fiercely contested Senate race in Min nesota against Walter Mondale (after Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash), claims that the College Republicans 'provided the energy and the bodies that put him over the top.' The institute supports positions that would be radioactive if men were to advance them, such as opposing the Violence Against Women Act or Take Our Daughters to Work Day. Leading members include Christina Hoff Sommers of the American Enterprise Institute, who has made a career out of under mining women's studies, and Lisa Schiffren, who wrote Dan Quayle's dia tribe against Murphy Brown (a sitcom journalist who decided to have a child out of wedlock). There are still prochoice Republicans such as Cohn Powell and Arnold Schwarzenegger, but they have been swimming against the tide. Le Pen's National Front remains a considerable force in French politics: in the first round of the 2002 presidential election it won 18 percent of the 350 - THE RIGHT NATION vote, propelling Le Pen into a runoff against Jacques Chirac, who won easily. OnlyJoe Liebermanstood firm against the left-wing wind. As a senator, he espoused liberal views on every subject under the sun, from partial-birth abortion to the death penalty, offending even against Ameri cans' God-given right to cheap gas by advocating a fifty-cent increase in the gas tax; he also called for 'unpatriotic' cuts in funding for the FBI and 362 - THE RIGHT NATION restrictions on the CIA. In November 2003, tens of thousands of Britons marched to protest against George Bush simply visiting their country. Rich deserves much credit for the book's strong sections and warned me against some of the re maining weaknesses. But inflation and the expectations of future inflation play a large role, because lenders want to be protected against the possible erosion of the value of their money. '[T]here is so much slack in the economy right now that we believe a fairly sizable program of permanent tax cuts and job oriented programs would not cause unmanageable inflation or deficits [but] rather would strengthen the economy against future inflation and deficits,' he said. Companies and workers were merely defending themselves against and, in some cases, exploiting an infla tion that was not of their own making. Not surprisingly, G. William Miller-a businessman who replaced Burns as Fed chairman in 1978-warned of the 'limitations of monetary policy as the main bulwark against inflation.' They were protecting themselves against future price increases of 10 percent a year or more. Reagan was portrayed as spearheading an economic assault against ordinary Americans.' Who knew? The Fed faced a dilemma: Abandoning its money supply targets-which symbolized the war against inflation-might 130 A Compact of Conviction seem an act of surrender; but adhering to them closely, trying to cut money growth even more, might drive the economy into an even deeper slump. 161 THE GREAT INFLATION AND ITS AFTERMATH Still, the strong prejudice against international capital flows was rooted in history. England favored trade with its empire and discriminated against others. In a wise essay nearly twenty years ago, the late economist Herbert Stein cautioned against defining capitalism by a narrow list of eco nomic characteristics. We want stable jobs, better living standards and protections against life setbacks (illness, disability and old age). There can be several bets against the same bond, extrapolating those losses out exponentially. Answer: Only if you have money to burn should you speculate on bank stocks, though there is language in the bill that says if the 67 $'JOO BILLION BAILOUT government invests in a bank by taking stock warrants, the bank must protect the Treasury against stock dilution. lefties at ACORN were against it, as were the angry fans 83 $'JOO BILLION BAILOUT of talk radio. to 111 A4 ANu TnE IT NITED STATES For the United States in the 1980s, the prospect of an Iranian victory over Iraq was so terrifying that the Reagan administration decided it had to shore up Iraq against the ayatollah's legions. Iraq had also sent large armored forces to fight against Israel in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, was a key sup porter of several Palestinian terrorist groups, and had led the condemnation of Egypt for signing the Camp David Peace Accords with Israel in 1978? When the Iranians launched an other massive offensive against al-Basrah in 1987, it was the reformed Re publican Guard that ultimately defeated them in bloody combat at the gates of the city. However, Iraq's armed forces 42 IRAQ AND '1'114: UNITED STA'I'NS The W found themselves hopelessly outmatched against the full might of the United States' armed forces and inflicted pitifully little damage on the coalition's Western militaries. Although Baghdad's first of positions it had trotted out before the ing one condition for Iraqi withdrawE withdrawal from the West Bank, the C February 22 Iraq had agreed to begin four hours if the coalition would agr immediately and lift the U.N. sanctir was just another hoax-what incenti the coalition ceased its military open from Saddam's perspective this was dam's previous discussion with Sovic E LNITED STATES atched against the full might of the Iflicted pitifully little damage on the the U.S.-led coalition unleashed the :ert Storm. He tried to dumping Kuwaiti oil into the Persian rorist operations against the coalition, Vestem intelligence services.' In May 1992, Iraq was forced to confess that it had a biological warfare program, although it would admit to only a 'defensive' program to protect itself against the use of biological agents by other countries. Moreover, they were able to use the assassination at tempt against President Bush to remind the administration doves that Sad dam remained dangerous and bent on vengeance and therefore the United States needed to be working harder to topple him.' It convinced him that in his current circumstances, an out right military threat to one of Iraq's neighbors would rally the international community against him and give the Americans the opportunity to mount a major military operation, one that might not stop short of Baghdad this time. Later that month, when the general's remains were returned to his family with obvious marks of torture, elements of the ad Dulaym tribe revolted against Saddam. Saddam was also encountering problems within his family itself, which he had increasingly relied on to help him maintain con trol since the end of the Gulf War, the intifadah, and the mounting coup at tempts against him. Udayy Saddam had been fighting two running battles throughout the spring--one against his uncle Watban Ibrahim, whom Udayy detested and had succeeded in having 76 IRAQ AND THE 1'ti1TED STATES sacked as interior minister after the revolt of the ad-Dulaym, the other with his cousin and brother-in-law, Hussein Kamel, for control of the massive smuggling operations that richly rewarded Saddam's inner circle at the ex pense of the Iraqi people. Christopher's bottom line was that a more aggressive policy against Saddam would interfere with the administration's higher-priority initia tives. The United States had clearly defined its no-fly zone as being north of the Thirty-sixth Paral- 92 IRAQ nND THE INITGD STATYs lei, and virtually all of the PUK territory lay south of that, but Saddam could not be certain that Washington would not invoke Resolution 688's prohibition against the Iraqi regime repressing its own people to justify a strike against him. Led by Martin Indyk, now back as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, and Bruce Riedel, who had moved into Indyk's old slot as special assistant to the pres ident for the Near East and South Asia, the hawks argued for a coercive air campaign against Iraq. The Kurds continued to fight each other after the fall of Arbil in 1996, and although Secretary of State Albright arranged a rec onciliation in Washington in September 1997, the KDP continued to deny the PUK a cut from its smuggling revenues and the PUK continued to plot against it-first with the Iranians and later with the Turks-to get that Cnnlainment and Beyond 97 share. In addition to its role in hiding Iraq's proscribed WMD programs, the SSO is responsible for defending the regime against popular unrest or a revolt by the armed forces (including even the Republican Guard). Many, including the Special Republican Guard and the Republican Guard, have reportedly been paid in dollars to insulate them against inflation.' Its current force, however, is probably small and intended principally as a deterrent against efforts to topple the regime by enemies foreign or domestic. In addition, Saddam has shown no inclination to use terrorism against the United States directly-at least not since 1993. In Saddam's vision, Iraq might not rule a vast Arab na tion, but it would certainly call the shots in a grand Arab coalition whose members would have to seek his permission before making any major moves and would stand behind Iraq against the rest of the world. Espe cially if Saddam and al-Qa'eda both find themselves desperate in the face of U.S. attacks, they might put aside their differences to make common cause against their common American enemy. In particular, it would allow Iraq to mount a surprise strike against the comparatively small U.S. forces in the region and hinder (possibly even prevent) U.S. reinforce ments from moving into the region quickly. Iraq launched 330 Scud-Bs and 203 al-Husseins against Iranian cities during the Iran-Iraq War and 88 al-Husseins at Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain dur ing the Gulf War.' For example, Iraq put aflatoxin (which causes cancer over a period of years) into bombs, where it could hardly be expected to produce near-term tacti cal results Although Iraq was not known to have employed biological warfare be fore the Gulf War, some experts suspect that it may have experimented with biological agents against the Kurds during the late 1980s. But if Saddam were willing to give WMD to terrorists to employ against cities in the region or the United States, he might be able to do far more damage. If the United States could tie Saddam to an act of ter rorism conducted with WMD, it would be able to demonstrate not only that he was violating the U.N. resolutions by retaining prohibited weapons but that he remained a danger to the rest of the world based on his willingness to employ such weapons against innocent civilians. Throughout the 1990s, only Kuwait consistently backed U.S. military operations against Iraq to the extent of being willing to allow U.S. aircraft to fly strikes against Iraq from its bases on every oc casion.' That said, senior officials from the southern Gulf states have gone furthest among the GCC to stress that any U.S. military operation against Iraq should come only during a period of relative calm between Israelis and Palestinians, lest regime change pour fuel on the flames of popular discontent. Like the GCC states, the Jordanians at least want the United States to wait until the Arab-Israeli peace process is back on track, if Washington is determined to mount a military operation against Iraq.' The Turks remember 1990, when Iraq threatened to retaliate against them as well if they participated in the Gulf War coalition. In 1991, the Bush, Sr., administration made it clear to the Iranians that Operation Desert Storm was not aimed at them and that if they acted responsibly, the United States would not take action against them. If the United States plans a major military operation against Iraq in the future, it would behoove us again to ensure Tehran's neutrality as best we can be cause if not, they could cause us a great deal of pain and frustration. That said, the British are sticklers about in ternational law and often have a much higher legal threshold for military action against Iraq than does the United States. Show a greater willingness to employ limited force against the Iraqi regime. Although the United States has long maintained that UNSCR 678 provides adequate justification for all military action against Iraq since then (and this may well be correct from a legal standpoint), politically, few countries agree with us. Finally, more limited American mil itary operations against Iraq would only further inflame Arab popular sen timent against the United States, making the implementation of our Iraq policy-and the rest of our Middle East agenda-that much harder to accomplish. Thus, we would have to inoculate our selves against such pressure by eliminating all waiver provisions. They would never again support American military operations against Iraq and would bring their budding rapprochement with Iraq to fruition as their only alternative. It would turn the world against us in a fundamental way. Yet he was deterred from employing chemical and biological weapons against Israel for fear of the much heav- The Dangers of Deterrence 249 ier retaliation Israel could mount with its nuclear arsenal. Moreover, Sad dam seems also to have put this into practice during the Gulf War, when he launched conventionally armed Scuds against Saudi Arabia (and Bahrain), but did not arm them with CW or BW warheads for fear of an American nu clear retaliation.' In response, Saddam was forced to sign the humili ating Algiers Accord in 1975 to prevent Iran from marching on Baghdad and further supporting the Kurds, which the shah did only when Saddam had recognized all of Tehran's territorial claims against Iraq, including along the vital Shatt al-Arab waterway. First of all, there is at least one unconfirmed CIA report that indicates that Saddam tried to use BW against coalition forces-an air strike involving three MiG-21s as de- 264 'I'lIF OPTIONS coys and an Su-22 fitted with a spray tank to spray coalition forces with a biological agent' However, since this report was not further confirmed, the U.N. inspectors found no evidence of such an operation, and it runs counter to the few authoritative sources we have, it can probably be dis counted. Even if we discount the unconfirmed CIA report of an attempted BW air strike, the evidence suggests that while Saddam may have been deterred at some level from using WMD tactically against coalition forces, this deterrence was actually quite conditional. In other words, possession of nuclear weapons would deter his nuclear-armed adversaries from taking action against him, thereby enabling him to take actions that he otherwise could not. Human Rights Watch argues that Saddam's Anfal campaign constituted genocide against the Kurds.' Their use on the Persian Gulf oil fields; against Tel Aviv, Ankara, Riyadh, or another regional city; or against U.S. military forces in the region is unimaginable. The most famous CIA assassination ef fort, ordered by President Kennedy against Fidel Castro, failed miserably after years of trying, despite numerous creative efforts to kill the Cuban leader, including poisoned cigars and a poisoned scuba-diving suit. In addition, the air campaign of Operation Desert Storm had, as one of its purposes, to try to trigger a military coup against Saddam. Even before Saddam learns about the coup plot itself, he will know which countries are helping us and he will wage war against them, in his own way, using all of the economic, political, and intelligence assets at his disposal. Aside from the inconvenient facts that during the four years the INC had been in northern Iraq with U.S. funding and ostensible air cover it had never been able to muster more than a few hundred fighters, large numbers of Iraqis had not rallied to its cause, and the Iraqi Army had not come over to its side, there was also the prob lem that 5,000 to 10,000 hastily trained Iraqis with nothing but small arms and antitank weapons and backed only by modest air power would never have a chance against Saddam's heavy divisions.` ESTABLISHING MY BONA FIDES Those who advocate employment of the Afghan Approach in Iraq like to defend themselves against criticism by claiming that all of the 'so-called The Risks of the Afghan Approarh 297 experts' were wrong about such a strategy working in Afghanistan, and therefore any warnings that the same strategy would not work in Iraq should also be dismissed. In a future war against Iraq, air power alone could undoubtedly ac complish numerous missions. Likewise, in 1995, their success at Arbil was achieved by mounting a surprise attack by a much larger force against 312 TIIE 0PI'10N8 two demoralized brigades of the Iraqi Thirty-eighth Infantry Division. Most of the Iraqi people are unlikely to move against Saddam until his doom is sealed. U.S. veterans re ported that the battles against the Republican Guard were harder than any firefight they had been through in Vietnam.' In fact, these divi sions fought extremely hard against the coalition forces during the subse- The Risks of the Afghan Approach :315 quent ground campaign (though they did not fight well). By definition, employing the Afghan Approach would mean mounting a weaker military campaign against Iraq this time than we did in 1991 (if only because there would be no large ground attack by U.S. armored forces), yet its proponents would have us believe that this weaker campaign would somehow be more likely to accomplish what Desert Storm could not. This would be a serious obstacle because none of our allies in 322 THE OPTIONS the Middle East-let alone in Europe or Asia-are inclined to support em ployment of the Afghan Approach against Iraq. During the first two weeks of the war, Iraq launched fifty-one Scuds against Israel and Saudi Arabia, and in the last two weeks of the war, it launched twenty-eight. However, the United States would be in a much better position to convince Israel not to retaliate against Iraq if there were large U.S. ground forces driving on Baghdad and Saddam's end were just a few days away. It would be much harder if we were simply hitting Iraq from the air and relying on Iraqi op position forces, which no one in the region believes can succeed against the regime. In particular, we should expect Saddam to do whatever he could to stoke the violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the hope that if he could coax Israel into a bloody overreaction, it would make it dif ficult if not impossible for the GCC states to continue to support a U.S. air campaign against him. The Is raeli newspaper Ha'aretz reported that in June 2002, a high-level 'war game' was conducted in Israel in which a U.S. war against Iraq provoked just such a response from Baghdad, and the game assumed that the Iraqi inspired rebellion was successful-thus placing the United States and Is rael in tenuous positions.' All of Iraq's neighbors are somewhat vulnerable to such agitation, and their vulnerability would grow the longer an American mili- :32S '1'115 OPTIONS tary campaign against Iraq dragged on. If the United States embarks on a military campaign against Iraq, Baghdad might very well decide to try to overthrow King Abdallah as a way of fore stalling or derailing the campaign. Before we embark on a war against Saddam, we need to make sure that the regime change it causes is not the fall of the Hashimites in Amman, rather than that of the Ba'thists in Baghdad. To reiterate: the GCC states are nervous about how their populations would react, they know that this would become a greater problem the longer a U.S. military campaign against Iraq went on, and for that reason they would not want it to go on any longer than absolutely necessary. Meanwhile, the Is raelis would demand that we put a division in western Iraq to preclude Scud launches against Israel. Neither had long-range weapons or weapons of mass destruction with which to re taliate against the United States or its allies. Finally, unlike in Afghanistan, few experts fear that the The Risks of the Afghan Approach 333 Iraqi people would rise up against an American invasion and rally around Saddam's regime. It usually sets me off rehearsing in my mind all of the arguments for and against all of the other options in one last effort 336 rnt. It would allow us to reassure the Israelis and our other regional allies that we would be able to reduce Iraq's ability to launch WMD-armed mis siles against them to the barest minimum. The rejectionists of the region could not play one issue off against the other, nor could governments or groups unhappy with developments between Israel and the Arabs vent their feel- 338 THE OPTIONS ings against America's Iraq policy. Against a force of (at that time) roughly thirty Iraqi divisions, the coalition did not have the strength to execute the wide outflanking maneuver that eventually won the war, and instead the CENTCOM plan called for a thrust into the heart of the Iraqi defenses. However, the time and the cost in casualties could vary considerably based on three critical factors: how hard the Iraqi armed forces fight, whether they are willing and able to defend Iraq's cities, and how able they are to employ their weapons of mass destruction against U.S. forces. If we behave in this fashion, we will alienate our allies and convince much of the rest of the world to band together against us to try to keep us under control. This would probably rule out deploying ground forces to prevent Baghdad from launching Scuds against Israel or from attacking the Kurds. At that point, given Saddam's personality and his actions during the Gulf War, we should expect him to order the launch of everything he has against Israel. There are many polls that suggest that the American people support the use of force against Iraq, but it is not at all clear that the respondents understood the amount of force that would be re quired or the other costs of the operation.' 368 THE OPTIONn International law is a bulwark against terrorists, rogue states, and others looking to cause mayhem and to undermine the power and prosperity of the United States. Likewise, Great Britain's 1982 'exclu sion zone' around the Falkland Islands after the war with Argentina and Sweden's declaration that it would use force against any foreign submarine found within twelve miles of its territorial seas were both exercises of antic ipatory self-defense. Of particular relevance, Israel justified its strike against Iraq's Osiraq nuclear reactor in June 1981 as anticipatory self-defense; the Osiraq reactor was scheduled to go online in the near future, but it still would have taken many years for Iraq to have used it to build nuclear weapons. He would be most able to stir Arab populations against their governments if he appeared harmless and reason able. The Case for an Invasion 379 To push the above point to its logical conclusion, we also should as sume that Saddam might try to head off a U.S. invasion by encouraging ter rorism against the United States by al-Qa'eda and other anti-U.S. As with the Afghan Approach, we would also have to expect Saddam to try to launch attacks against Kuwaiti or even Saudi oil fields. We tried a far more punishing air campaign against Iraq in 1991, yet the tattered army that emerged from Operation Desert Storm was still able to crush the two CONCLUSIONS 415 largest opposition revolts in Iraqi history in just a few weeks. It is the one policy that would guarantee us that we will not have to endure multiple nuclear crises with Saddam or fight a war against a nuclear-armed Iraq. How many would die in a war against a nuclear-armed Saddam? And how much would it cost to repair the damage to the whole world if the oil infrastructure of the Per sian Gulf region were obliterated in such a war? In this case, an ounce of prevention would likely be worth a ton of cure. Given that Saddam's motives are well established and that every other multilateral or COSCLLSIONS 419 unilateral approach to stopping him has failed, it would be madness to wait until he has developed the capabilities to cause grievous damage to us and to the region before we decided to take action against him. We don't necessarily have to finish the war against al-Qa'eda before taking up arms against Saddam-that is likely to be a very long fight because of the amorphous nature of bin Ladin's terrorist network. We cannot afford to alienate our allies over our policy toward Iraq and convince them to drag their feet in helping us against al-Qa'eda in return. Franklin Delano Roosevelt defended the provision of aid to Great Britain against Nazi Ger many under the Lend-Lease Act by arguing that if your neighbor's house were on fire and you had a hose, wouldn't you lend it to him-if only to put the fire out before your house caught too? Today another house is burning, 424 (: ON CIXSIONS and we are the only ones strong enough to douse the blaze. The White House had been more than rooting against the rebellion-it actively sided with the Dominican army's move to smash it, approving bombardment of the city along with a major tank attack by infantry forces. Nixon 'was increasing deceptively labeled `protective reaction strikes' against the North to a level that amounted to the resumption Our Leaders Will Do Everything They Can to Avoid War 39 of Johnson's bombing,' Daniel Ellsberg has written. 'Starting the day after Christmas 1971 [six months after the Pentagon Papers came out], he launched a thousand U.S. bombers during five days of bomb ing against North Vietnam, in the heaviest raids since 1968.... against this shit-ass little country: to win the war. Powell's presentation was all the more convincing because he dispensed with apocalyptic invocations of a struggle of good and evil and focused on shaping a sober, factual case against Mr. Hussein's regime.'' 1142 But two days later, the Washington Post filled its opinion page with caustic reactions from three prominent syndicated columnists across the mainstream political spectrum: • Clinton again proved his international impotence, George Will observed from the front lines of his keyboard, warning against °i8 WAR MADE EASY restraint: 'U.S. And Milosevic's ferocity against Kosovars is moti vated as much by his need to put down an internal insurrection as it is by ethnic hatred.,, After Washington denied there had been a massacre and the Reagan administration launched a smear campaign against Bonner, the Times pulled him out of El Salvador. 5 A dozen years later, weeks before the invasion of Iraq, liberal Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen launched a barrage of This Is Not at All about Oil or Corporate Profits $9 invective against a member of Congress who had dared to identify oil as 'the strongest incentive' for the impending war. In the absence of inde pendent journalism or congressional skepticism, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution-the closest thing there ever was to a declaration of war against North Vietnam-sailed through Congress. And my charge against my government is, we're not giving the American people the facts.' He added that 'we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex.' This was the same Saddam Hussein who then, as in 2000, was a tyrant subjecting dissenters in his regime to unspeakable tortures and committing genocide against If This War Is Wrong, the. Citing 'three systematic studies of network television coverage of Vietnam,' researcher Daniel Hallin summarized the findings: 'All reject the idea that the living-room war meant graphic portrayals of violence on a daily basis, or that television was consistently negative toward U.S. policy or led public opinion in turning against the war.' 9 In the aftermath of 9/11, warning shots became routine against 170 WAN MADE EASY mentioning aspects of history that others deemed best forgotten or never learned. The journalistic avoidance continued to facilitate the momentum of with-us-or-against-us righ teousness in the 'war on terror.' He went on: 'Used against human beings, cluster bombs are some of the most savage weapons of modern warfare. Senator John Warner, a former secretary of the navy, spoke as the ranking GOP member of the Senate Armed Services Committee when he said: 'This, I think, is the first time in contemporary military his tory where a military operation is being conducted against the govern ment of a country, and simultaneously, with the troops carrying out their mission, other troops are trying to take care of the innocent 202 WAR MADE EASY victims who all too often are caught in harm's way.' 'In the war against the mili tias,' Will wrote, 'every door American troops crash through, every civilian bystander shot-there will be many-will make matters worse, for a while. When it became evident during the first few months of 2004 that the American troops in Iraq were fighting a counterinsur gency war against forces gaining strength, polls showed the U.S. pub lic roughly split-the exact numbers, of course, varied depending on 230 WAR MADE EASY how questions were phrased-about whether the continuing war was worthwhile. Patti McSherry, reporting for the weekly In These Times, was told by the State Department on November 20 that the United States had filed no protest against this abduction and torture of a U.S. citizen because the case fell under Guatemalan jurisdiction.' 'Still, almost all governments are extremely reluctant to speak up against the espionage. Like other U.S. officials, you emphasize that Saddam Hussein 'gassed his own people' and used chemical weapons against Iran, but you don't talk about the intelligence data and other forms of assistance that the United States provided to help Iraq do such things. Aziz said: 'What I Notes to Pages 58-59 257 want to know is, are these charges personal? Is it Tariq Aziz carrying out these killings? If I am a member of a government that makes the mistake of killing someone, then there can't justifiably be an accusation against me personally. Midway through July 2003-even while Time's latest cover was ask ing 'Untruth & Consequences: How Flawed Was the Case for Going to War Against Saddam?'-the president told reporters: 'The fundamental question is, 258 Notes to Pages 60-63 did Saddam Hussein have a weapons program? And the answer is, absolutely. The exception was Ahmadinejad, who defeated Rafsanjani in a 'DEATH TO AMERICA' AND 'CAN I HAVE YOUR AUTOGRAPH?' u runoff in June, profiting from a protest vote against one of Iran's rich est men. Iran resumed working on centrifuges the following year, during the height of the 1980-88 war, after Iraq began using chemical weapons against Iranian troops. Iran did not retaliate in kind; Khomeini is said to have vetoed the use of unconventional weapons as against the tenets of Is lam, which forbids the killing of innocents. Even after the North Koreans tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006, the penalties imposed against the regime were relatively mild: a UN resolution barring exports to North Korea that could aid its no- sa BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES clear program or satisfy its leader's taste for cognac and caviar. THE MILITARY OPTION Mounting economic pressure against Iran in late 2006 and early 2007 gave rise to some optimism in the United States and Europe that Iran IRAN AND THE BOMB .7i Mohammad Ali Seyednejad, a Ministry of Education employee who knew Ahmadinejad during the 1970s, said the future president was present when plans for the takeover were dis cussed but argued against it.' Many Iranians took the tragedy as a sign that the United States was now intervening directly against their civilian population, not merely supporting Sad dam with weapons and intelligence and protecting the oil exports of Saddam's Arab allies. Mohammad Khosh-Chehreh, a member of parlia ment from Tehran, accused the government of incompetent diplomacy on the nuclear issue and warned against making decisions 'based on emotions and slogans.'' I thought of what Rezaie had said when Hezbollah and Israel went to war a few months later as the United States escalated a campaign against Iran in the United Nations. It was a rare bu reaucratic victory against regime forces threatened by Khatami's plat form and popularity. But they suppressed their criticism while the regime was fighting for its very existence against Iraqi invaders and confronting a violent internal opposition led by the Mujahedin e-Khalq, the leftist guerilla group that had sided with Iraq. Flush with victory, they turned against not only right-wing religious conservatives but pragmatic figures such as Rafsan jani, the adroit politician who was a key figure in the revolution and had served as president from 1989 to 1997. 'The measures they have taken against me have been less intense than the opposition against Clinton,' he said. Ahmadinejad played on the reformers' failure to emphasize issues of economic justice, and profited from a protest vote against Rafsanjani, seen as too old (he was seventy at the time) and re sented because of his wealth and past involvement in terrorism and do mestic human rights abuses. BOSOM ENEMIES slightest criticism could lead to someone losing their life, I am happy to see in Iran that someone can make the harshest criticisms against the top power of the executive and not be persecuted or arrested.' Thousands more Irani ans studying abroad, primarily in the United States, organized demon strations that were inspired by their own history of student activism as well as foreign protests against the U.S. war in Vietnam and in support of human rights. Wouldn't it be fairer, he asked, for all Jews and Palestinians to vote on what sort of country Is rael/Palestine should become? Although his site generally supported Iranian government policies, it was shut down for a month in 2005 for leveling charges of corruption against a senior official, and it has printed numerous items critical of Ahmadmejad. He had voted, along with most Iranian young people, for Khatami in 1997 as a protest against the establishment, but did not vote in 2001 or 2005. His disciples created a clerical underground that distributed tapes of Khomeini's sermons and agitated against the throne. 'They disqualified me on grounds that I was not a Muslim and not a believer in the Islamic republic,' Iravani said-an astonishing charge to level against an ayatollah. Ganji, who was raised in a poor district of southern Tehran and was twenty in 1979, said that he and other youngsters caught up in the struggle against the shah 'wanted to build a paradise and we created hell.' In December 2006 a handful of students did succeed in staging a protest against President Ahmadinejad at Tehran's Amirkabir University, once a hotbed of revolutionary upheaval against the shah. In the early 1970s, the shah-with the assistance of the CIA-backed Iraqi Kurds in their insurgency against Baghdad, then abandoned the Kurds in 1975 after he reached an agreement with Saddam that gave Iran territorial concessions in the Shatt al-Arab wa- isa BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES terway that leads into the Persian Gulf. Mohadessin's mission is to get the MEK off the terrorism list so that it can openly solicit support for its campaign against the Iranian regime. So far, the Bush administration has not done so, but it has also re fused to extradite MEK leaders to Iran and rumors persist, despite offi cial denials, that the Pentagon and CIA have recruited MEK members in Iraq to carry out covert activities against the Iranian regime. His decision to accept Saddam's hospitality and to fight on Iraq's side against Iran in the Iran-Iraq war turned most Irani ans against the organization. Dashti said most of the women she met at the camp were there against their will. The story leaked to a Lebanese newspaper, causing huge embar rassment to U.S; diplomats and U.S. allies in the Middle East and in noculating many U.S. officials against dealing with Iran or putting faith in so-called moderates there. Rick Inderfurth, then an assis tant secretary of state dealing with Afghanistan, said the United States often found itself arguing on the same side as Iran against Pakistan and OUT OF SYNC: IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES 187 Turkmenistan, which were backing the Taliban. The United States could have ac quired a strategically situated Muslim ally against al-Qaeda, or at least lessened Iran's motivation to play the spoiler in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. That sense of awe began to dissipate zos BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES as U.S. forces failed to restore law and order to the streets of Baghdad and other Iraqi cities, and Iraqi Sunnis rose up against the American occupation. Iran, he said, 'is actively working against all that the U.S. and our allies desire for the region-peace in Lebanon, peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and an end to terrorism. And then the Bush campaign gave Exley even more publicity when it filed a complaint against GWBush.comwith
MY MONEY AGAINST YOUR PRESIDENT By any historical standard, Soros's contributions were simply stunning. More than a year after Soros first announced his campaign 66 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY against Bush, Lewis still seemed dumbfounded by the numbers involved. At the same time, the Center was not eager to take a public stand against Soros-it was not in the business of needlessly alienating donors-and did not make any sort of public announcement of the decision (indeed, it was never reported in the press). In addition, Fahren heit 9/11 had never-before-seen video footage of U.S. troops 126 THE VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY fighting in Iraq, as well as interviews with servicemen who had served in Iraq and turned against the war. We've advised everyone against it.' 'They want to take us back to an imaginary Manichean age when you were either with us or against us, which means you either are us, or we'll exterminate you, because we can only tolerate ourselves, we can only tolerate those who share our values.' To guard against omissions, Cheney ensured he had a free hand ANGLER to tap directly into sources of information that are ordinarily guarded by privacy law. 'We were caught flat footed,' unable to respond to Democratic attacks on Cheney's voting record against Head Start, school lunch programs, and the Martin Luther King Jr. national holiday. Cheney set his heels against opening the books at Hallibur ton, saying 'We're not going to drag them in.' Cheney had voted in Congress against establishing a Department of Education and was skeptical of federal intervention in local schools. It stood against the Kyoto environmental agree ment, against the International Criminal Court, and against any ANGLER treaty that interfered with ballistic missile defense. ANGLER

Throughout his long government career, Cheney counseled against exactly that kind of policy surprise. ANGLER The CIA and the Air Force practiced the Predator strike against bin Laden and prepared military plans against al Qaeda bases in Af ghanistan. The best defense against such a charge, Addington wrote, would combine a broad presidential directive for humane treatment, in general, with an assertion of un restricted authority to make exceptions. It was insane, I think, to be discussing techniques to use against individual detainees.' ANGLER As a matter of policy, Yon said he warned Addington and Jim Haynes, the Pentagon lawyer, against the risks of letting military interrogators use the harshest forms of treatment. Instead of measuring actual emissions, the EPA would com pare the pollution levels of an expanded plant against the 'potential' ANGLER emissions before the upgrade. If Pyongyang threw half its forces against Seoul and sent the other half down the east coast, it might 'checkmate' U.S. reinforcements at their points of entry in Pusan and Kimhae. Cheney urged the Senate ANGLER Armed Services Committee, against its inclinations, to let Dugan re tire with a four-star general's pension. He and Rumsfeld were locked in a ANGLER multiyear struggle against advocates of an agreement with the Ira nian government. In Lynne Cheney's novel Executive Privilege, President Jenner is faced with ANGLER rioting against the presence of U.S. forces overseas. The decision was, in principle, a calamity for Cheney's war plan against al Qaeda. After the backlash against Gonzales, Bush settled unexpectedly on Harriet Miers. When conservatives rebelled against that choice, too, and Miers withdrew, Bush gave up on his freelance efforts to recruit. And it was Cheney who first alluded to the accusation that would soon be flung against Wilson. UNFIT FOR COMMAND UNFIT FOR COMMAND Swift Boat Veterans Speak Out Against John Kerry

JOHN E. O'NEILL AND JEROME R. CORSI, PH.D. Corsi conducted two major studies on the Vietnam Veterans Against the War (VVAW) at Brandeis University's Z Center for the Study of Violence. He is willing, if not eager, to contrast his supposed military 21 UNFIT FOR COMMAND accomplishments against the military records of his opponents, which he has repeatedly belittled with enthusiasm. The theme of these stories is almost always the same: Kerry portrays himself as a noble war hero who has no choice but to struggle mightily against the many military villains who surrounded him from the top down in the United States Army and Navy. 42 He was also recognized as a crusader against racism. On the floor of the U.S. Senate on March 27, 1986, Kerry launched one of his many attacks against President Reagan-this time charg ing that President Reagan's actions in Central America were leading the United States into yet another Vietnam, claiming that he could recognize the error of the administration's ways because he had expe rienced firsthand the duplicity of the Nixon administration in lying 40 about American incursions into Cambodia during the Vietnam War. 94 UNFIT FOR COMMAND back and did leave of my own volition because I felt I could do more against the war back here.... John Kerry's supporters from the Vietnam Veterans Against the War (VVAW) were here to applaud their leader. In the years since 1975, the Vietnamese Communists have waged war on the Montagnards, the Christian mountain people who dared to fight with the United States against Ho Chi Minh. In the five years of its existence, the Stockholm Conference 'created thousands of 'documentary' materials printed in all the major Western languages describing the 'abominable crimes' committed by American soldiers against civilians in Vietnam, along with counterfeited pictures.' 150 UNFIT FOR COMMAND Dr. Mowlana's conclusion, which ends the book, presented as though it were scientifically valid, is that Vietnam was such a terri ble experience that those who fought there were overwhelmingly rad icalized against the war: 'The important thing for this study is the shift of opinion and attitude. Slip Ridley Emmett Tidd James M. Zomwalt in memory of Elm Zumwaly Sr. and Elmo Zumwalt, Jr, his father and grandfather





APPENDIX B

Chronology: Kerry's Naval Career and Involvement with Vietnam Veterans Against the War 198 1966




1967-1968 Appendix February 18, 1966: Kerry enlists in the U.S. Naval Reserves, status 'inactive' after request for deferment is denied Spring 1966: Kerry delivers antiwar oration at Yale August 19, 1966: Reports to officer candidate school in Newport, Rhode Island December 16,1966: Commissioned Ensign, status 'active' June 1967-June 1968: Claimed 'One-Year Tour of Vietnam' served on the U.S.S. Gridley ' June 1967-November 1967: Gridley operates on the Califor nia coast November 1967-December 1967: Gridley sails to the Pacific and operates off the coast of Vietnam (about 5 weeks) January 2, 1968 -June 8, 1968: Gridley sails to Australia and returns to Long Beach, California November 17, 1968: Ordered to Coastal Squadron One, Coastal Division 14, Cam Ranh Bay, South Vietnam 1969










1970 December 2,1968: Purple Heart Medal #1 'combat incident' at Cam Ranh Bay. See Veterans of Foreign Ware Viet Cong, 12, 18, 127-28 The Vietnam Experience: A War Remembered, 26 Vietnam Human Rights Act, 172-73 Vietnam Human Rights Project, 170 Vietnam Memorial, 15 Vietnam Veterans Against the War IVVAW): assassination plotting of, 140-43, 199; Com munism and, 130-35, 136; extremist groups and, 115-16, 124-25; Fulbright Committee and, 99; Hubbard and, 156-57; O'Neill-Kerry debate and, 16; Kerry as spokesperson for, 2, 8,13; Kerry's leadership of, 5; Kerry's recruit ing for, 94-95; Kerry's resignation from, 141-d2, 157, 158-61; PCPJ and, 124-25; radi cal nature of, 159-61; study of, 1-2; Winter Soldier Investigation and, 108,110,112-16 Vietnam Veterans for a Just Peace, 13 Vietnam War: accusations of war crimes in, l, 6, 11-19, 11-19, 43, 51-70, 99-122, 123-24, 17740,188; Cambodia and, 45-47; Commu nism and, 104-5, 121-22, 128, 130-35, 176; free-fire zones and, 17, 51, 54, 58-61; Ful bright Committee and, 99-108, 109; Kerry's mistakes in, 72-77; as mistake, 104-5, 107, 147; POWs in, 117-18, 126-28, 133-35; psy chological operations in, 78-79; racism and, 154-55; U. S. withdrawal from, 15, 18, 120-21, 126; Winter Soldier Investigation and, 104, 108-16 Viewpoints, 145 Voss, Mike, 36 V VAW. See Vietnam Veterans Against the War W Wade, David, 142 Wainscott, Jeffrey M., 194 Wafinsky, Adam, 102, 106, 148 Wallace, David, 194, 204-8 Wall Street Journal, 152 Ward, Greg, 194 Warner, Jim, 117 War on Terror, 21, 177 War Remnants Museum, Ho Chi Minh City, 7-8,167-74 War Resisters League, 133 Washington, George, 108, 127 Washington Evening Star, 153 Washington Post, 182 Wasikowski, Larry J. 'Waz', 194 Wasser, James, 73 Wayne, John, 65 Webster, Pete, 194,195 Wedge, Robert T., Jr., 195 Weld, William, 22 White, R. Shelton, 30, 79, 195 Whitley, Glenna, 113 Whittington, Gary K., 195 Wiggins, James D., 195 Wilds, Oscar, 16 Willess, Dennis D., 195 wwwWintezSoIdier.com, McCain went against President Reagan on troop deployment in Lebanon; he crossed him again when voting to override a presidential veto of a bill sanctioning South Africa for its apartheid policies. In 1994 he worked with Democrat John Kerry on behalf of legislation calling for the fullest possi ble accounting of American servicemen unaccounted for during the war in Vietnam, and he encouraged the presi dent to lift the U.S. trade embargo against Vietnam. But when he examined the initial air strikes against Yugoslavia, he concluded there was no way NATO could oust Serbian forces in Kosovo without a credible threat of ground troops. But McCain has taken to the Bush plan, which is to threaten attacks against Iran. But in several cases, according to federal campaign finance records that were matched against the letters, the correspondence to the Federal Communica- 85 86 The Real McCain tions Commission, which McCain's committee oversees, coincided with substantial fund-raising efforts by the companies that stood to benefit from his actions.' Early in his career, he voted against making Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr.'s birthday a federal holiday. If they do, America's standing in the world will continue to suffer, as will the fight against terrorism. McCain's chief of staff visited the Maricopa County Republican's meeting to 'warn them against considering the resolution.' See also under McCain Democratic majority in, 139-10 McCain-GOP blockade in, 31-32 Senate Commerce Committee, 85 Senate Select Committee on Ethics, 79 sex education, 111, 112-13 sexual abstinence, 114 Shays, Christopher, 84 Simmons, Harold, 93 Sirota, David, 134 slavery, 118 Smith, Bob, 47 Somalia, 54-55 South Africa, apartheid in, 22 South Carolina, 119-20 Stabenow, Debbie, 31-32 State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), 31, 98 Stephanopoulos, George, 70, 117 Stevens, Ted, 132 Stewart, Jon, 25, 73, 107-5 Strauss, Leo, 62 Surrusco, Mike, 88 Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (SBVT),92-94 'swift-boating,' 8, 17, 43-44 Taibbi, Matt, 72 taxes, 129-30, 136-37 Thurmond, Strom, 48-49 torture, 124-26 in the courts, 125-28 Tully, Duke, 10, 11 Turgidson, Buck, 57 Vero Beach, 5 veterans, 34-39 Vietnam, 24 Vietnam Veterans Against McCain, 8 182 Vietnam War, 11, 24, 74. Saddam Husayn's equally foolish invasion of Iran-leading eventually to Iraq's use of chemical war fare, missile attacks against the civilian populations of both coun tries, and large-scale military strikes against each other's oil exports (and later against those of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait-struck an other blow to America's efforts to remain disengaged from the Mid dle East. The results were the 1956 and 1967 Arab-Israeli wars, in which Israel launched 36 I AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST preemptive or preventive offensives against Egypt and Syria (and in 1967 was simultaneously attacked by Jordan), as well as the Israeli decision to pursue a nuclear weapons capability to guarantee the con tinued survival of the Jewish state.' 38 1 AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Other Strategic Considerations The political scientist Steven David has pointed out that Israel is the one Middle Eastern country for which it would be inconceivable ever to turn against the United States: 'The interests of Israel and the United States are not identical, and disputes will arise between the two countries. Even our closest Arab allies have, at times, sided against us-the Saudis mounting the oil embargo that caused the first great oil shock (and triggered a particularly painful reces sion in the United States) in 1973, the Jordanians standing with Sad dam Husayn in the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War. Beginning in 1998, Saddam Husayn ordered his air de fense forces to regularly attack American and British planes enforcing the no-fly zones, which prompted responses from these aircraft which Saddam's regime invariably claimed were killing civilians, which in turn riled up the Saudi populace against the United States. Given 56 1 AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST the degree of their dependence on U.S. logistical support, it is hard to imagine that the Egyptian armed forces could mount another of fensive like the one that opened the 19'73 October War against Israel without America's active participation. Moreover, the more states that have success fully proliferated in the face of international pressure not to do so, the less international pressure can be expected to be applied against the next state to try, causing the entire nonproliferation regime to lose its potency. In fact, this has not been a campaign against 'terrorism'; the United States has done little or nothing against most of the world's terrorist groups. The authors of the 2003 Arab Human Development Report courageously called attention to this problem, stating, 'The threat of Israeli domi nation also creates a pretext for deferring political and economic re forms in the name of national solidarity against a formidably-armed external aggressor.'' Worse still, individuals often need to pay bribes to get a favorable result even if the law is on their side and just as frequently do so to get a favorable result in the event the law is against them. Although they certainly employed all of these tactics against the Islamists as well, at times many of the regimes of the region also demonstrated a certain degree of restraint that was often not present when they attacked the secular oppositionists.' Mao and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sought to overthrow the Guomindang regime but were not able to imitate the Leninist model and so turned to a protracted guerrilla war against the regime instead. Even if they were willing to pump and sell as much oil as pos- 166 1 THE THREATS WE FACE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST sible, as both Qadhafi and Saddam (mostly) were, if they were using it to fund terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and aggressive wars against their neighbors, the consequences would be very severe for U.S. interests-and possibly disastrous. Thus, if the sea (the people ever turned against the fish (the guerrilla, the fish was lost. There is an argument to be made, for example, that Baluchi terrorism against the Iranian regime helps legitimize other terrorist actions, including those against the United States. Consequently, any thing that causes people not just to launch terrorist attacks but to launch them against the United States is something we should seek to address. As in many other Arab coun tries, there were popular demonstrations in Morocco against the U.S.-led coalition seeking to expel Iraq's army fr9m 200 1 THE THREATS WE FACE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST Kuwait. My own sense of the evidence is that while America's support for Israel almost certainly plays a significant role in Salafi terror attacks against the United States, religion plays only a minor role, and it is religion generally, not anything specific to Islam, that has an impact. PART FOUR THE CORE OF A GRAND STRATEGY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST OF ALL OF THE MANY MISTAKES AND PREVARICATIONS OF the Bush 43 administration in its conduct of the invasion of Iraq, perhaps the most damaging was its claim that Saddam Husayn posed an imminent threat and had to be dealt with immediately' Even if you accepted the (mistaken) judgments of the U.S. intelligence community-and every other intelligence community with the capa bility to collect information independently against Iraq-that Sad dam had reconstituted Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs, as I did, the threat from Iraq was not imminent. Far from advancing the cause of political reform in the region, this produced chaos and violence, left the Palestinians (and Israelis, Jordanians, and ourselves) worse off than they had been, and provided more evidence that the regimes and other critics could cite to argue against further reform. I think there are times when you throw spaghetti 234 I THE CORE OF A GRAND STRATEGY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST against the wall and see if it sticks.'' Rami Khouri of Lebanon's Daily Star is often described as one of the most balanced voices of the Arab world, and in 2003 he warned that 'The single most powerful and consistent complaint against the U.S. is that it applies a double standard in its policies to the Arab World.... Egypt was weaned away from the USSR, Egypt and Israel made peace, Jordan and Lebanon gave up partici pating in Arab military coalitions against Israel, and then Jordan and Israel made peace. This, in turn, typically causes those members of society to demand greater rule of law to protect them against arbitrary actions by the state and then a greater say in government for the same reason (and poten tially to determine how their money is being spent if the state begins to tax them, which becomes possible when there are people making money from sources other than government largesse). At the same time, it would leave a powerful monarch in full command of the Army and thus able to intervene to prevent any political party or group from moving against the system itself. These kinds of campaigns are most suitable for defen sive operations, when a group or a nation is attempting to defend it self against an attacker. Hizballah and the Palestinians were eventually able to push the Israelis out of land Israel had occupied, but there is no expectation that they are going to be able to destroy the state of Israel itself The best that countries have been able to do in terms of using insurgency in an offensive fashion is to stoke a dissident group within the target country to start an insurgency against the regime and/or the dominant group, but that too is a very ineffective method of aggression-let alone conquest. Moreover, if you threaten to use force, you have to be prepared to back it up, and after the experience of Iraq it will be hard to convince the American peo ple to go to war in the Middle East again anytime soon absent a di rect act of aggression against us or one of our closest allies. Failure to do so would amount to the same kind of reckless dis regard for the lessons of history determination to plan only for the best-case scenario, and unwillingness to guard against the worst-case scenario that characterized the Bush 43 administration's thinking prior to the invasion of Iraq-and that was responsible for so many of the mistakes that created the nightmare we face in Iraq today. It could also further inflame Arab passions against the United States. We can't afford to lose Iraq or Afghanistan in pursuit 372 I A REGION OF CRISES of the ephemeral gains of air strikes against Iran. Even if it failed in those goals, it would clearly identify the troublemakers, making it easier to organize collective action against them-to contain, sanction, or even confront them. He doesn't tell us what he is insuring against, but I'll tell you. He's insuring against the plummeting loss of purchasing power of all dollar-denominated investments, even the possible collapse of the dollar. Besides overseeing Jack's impromptu fishing expedition, Andrea is pushing her preschool-aged daugh ter on the swing, the phone against her ear. Over a two-year period, more than 80 million adults and children-one out of three nonelderly Ameri cans, 85 percent of them working or the kids of working parents spend some time without the protection against ruinous health 14 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT costs that insurance offers. Researchers call this the 'endowment ef fect,' and it helps explain myriad features of the economic world 26 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT that are otherwise inexplicable: why, for example, wages don't gen erally fall during recessions; why stocks have historically had to pay much higher returns than bonds to entice people to take on the increased risk of loss-and why insurance against economic injury remains the most popular and extensive of all the activities that modern governments engage in. Looking back from the vantage point of the late 1960s, Folsom saw it only as a matter of time before the direc tion of Kodak was the direction of the country: 'Me have made considerable progress in the last 50 years in protecting people against the major economic hazards of life.... '3° When Medicare and Medicaid were created in 1965, RISKING IT ALL 47 it looked as if protection against economic insecurity-once de nounced as a fearsome Bolshevist plot-had come to be seen as American as apple pie. Over the course of the 1970s, Feldstein churned out a series of highly technical but hugely influential studies showing that Ameri- RISKING IT ALL 51 cans, because of tax breaks and public programs, were excessively insured against health costs and other financial risks. Rather than calling for the elimination of government's role, conservatives demanded that this role shift from providing shared insurance against economic misfortune toward providing individual accounts that people could use to provide for themselves and their families. Short-term investment behavior driven by an emphasis on stock value has replaced the more slow-moving cash flows of the past, giving com panies less room for error and less cushion against losses. Jim feared the company was trying to buy him off, although he'd never thought of joining in the legal actions against the telecom- RISKY RETIREMENT 127 munications giant whose 'creative accounting' had destroyed the company's stock and thousands of jobs. To protect against this risk requires purchasing an annuity, yet annuity markets are notoriously prone to failure. 146 THE GREAT RISK SHIFT It also bought them an insurance policy of their own-against national health insurance, which foundered in the fierce political debates of the 1940s in large part because private workplace in surance was so rapidly expanding. The main focus should be the big picture: How prepared are you if your income and expenses suddenly become anything but stable? This may seem an imponderable question: How can you plan against events that are highly uncertain (and hopefully pretty unlikely)? The answer is, that is what managing risk is all about-seeing the 'unforeseen,' and preparing for it. Auto insurance, health insurance, homeowners insurance, life insurance-in ways both big and small we shield ourselves against risk by buying pieces of paper that promise to protect us when things go bad. Unlike the present system, however, 401(k)s would be governed by the same rules that now protect traditional pension plans against excessive investment in company stock. Yet against the cost, CONCLUSION 19' one must balance the savings. Under the proposal, Universal Insur- NOTES TO PAGE 192 235 ante benefits would also not be counted against eligibility for antipov erty programs (although they would be treated as taxable income for all beneficiaries at the end of the year). 401(k)s, 118-19, 127 defined-contribution plans described, 53-54 and inequality, 123 risks of, 127-28 shortcomings of, 125-26, 185-86 and the stock market, 121-22 vs. traditional pensions, 14 DeLong, Brad, 78 DeMint, Jim, 162-63 Democratic Party, 120 Demos, 99 diminishing marginal utility, 25 disabilities disabled population, 146 and the elderly, 155-56 and families, 103 and Health Savings Accounts, 154-55 insurance against, 174 and Medicaid, 159-60 and Medicare Plus, 188-89 and moral hazard, 48 240 INDEX discretionary income, 97 displaced workers, 70, 81, 184 Displaced Workers Survey, 70 divorce, 30, 105-7, 224n. We should all strongly support DeChristopher in his case against the U.S. government. The British, too, built improved flood defense systems, including the Thames Barrier to secure central London against a future storm. Fleck has heard stories of compa nies who ended up competing against Chinese-made items that looked eerily identical to their own-under a generic brand name. For anyone making a pilgrimage to the home office (or simply going to work there every day), the proximity of Sam Walton's grave is a fine, and ironic, caution against self-importance. Pink was the best color for him because the shade looked so juicy up against his skin, as smooth and soft as velvet. But even when he was in Jeddah, his time with his family was severely limited; nearly every waking moment was crammed with important meetings regarding the battle against the Soviets or the construction business. The vast floor space was empty other than a few inexpensive Persian carpets on the floor, cushions lined against the walls, and thin mattresses for sleeping. Saddam's neighbors had been generous in supporting the Iraqis against the Ira nians, for both governments had become increasingly uneasy with the antago nistic militant stance taken by the Khomeini government against the Sunni-led governments in the area. Some times the eager driver would push too hard against the gas pedal and the mud would sling in many directions. Never was a nR word spoken about such matters, for she would never go directly against our father, yet she helped us to survive our bleak lives. We didn't know that he had a rule 119 against socializing with Christians until we got into trouble trying to meet them. The half-siblings saw each other infrequently, so we spent a lot of time measuring ourselves against the other, taking care not to get in the wrong position, because it was easy enough for your grandfather to spot the one delinquent. Being a shy boy, I stood silently, hoping against hope that your grandfather would not notice I had gotten captured between two taller brothers. I sensed that my father enjoyed putting his men up against those of a man whose military skills he so admired. I know now that since the first day of the first battle against the Soviets in Afghanistan, my father has been killing other humans. From my knowledge of Saudi men, sons never speak out against their fathers. 288 Secondly, and more interesting, Omar was pitting himself against his father. See also horses) Abdul Rahman against, 63 birds, 226 bull, 253 Camels, zoo-5 COW, 227, 241 dogs, 133-34,176,184, 187-89, 229-30 at family farm, 43-44 gazelle, 43-44 goats, 252 monkeys, 134-35 pigeons, 69-71, 117, 118 320 animals. 52 Abdel Rahman, Omar, 77 Azzam and, 131 background of, 130-31, 254 as blind cleric, 130 for al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya, 130-31, 308 against Jews, 131 as terrorist, 131 to U.S., 131 World Trade Center and, tat, 308-9 Abdul Rahman. See also 9/1l; Osama with Omar Abu Hafs to, 213 accounts from, xiii, 287-90 to Afghanistan, 149-5o anger of, 41 animals and, zoo-5 arrest of, 276 art for, 72 asthma for, 6o, 141, 156-57 attack on, 220-21 as baby, 31-3z birth Of, Y, 38, 304 breakouts by, 66 bride search of, 230-34 for camels, zoo-5 character of, 92, 190, 103, 215-16, 259 citizenship for, 128-29, 270, 274, 312 clothing of, 31-32, 175 daily routine of, 64-65 death and, 132-33,140 dog for, 176, 184, 188 early childhood of, 31-32, 40 escape for, 199-201, 242, 254-57, z6o-61, 263-66 food rationing by, 215 friends deaths for, 131-33, z40-41 front lines for, 219-21 to Ghanem family, 230-31 girls and, 57, 258-59 Hamdan with, 216-18 happiness and, 225 horses for, 47, 57-6o, 86, 92, 181, 231-32 humiliation for, 164 illness of, 171-72 isolation of, xiii, 288 Jeddah return for, 274-75 Khandahar return for, 278-80, 312 leaving Sudan, 136-45 as lost, 232-34 manhood for, 179, x15-16, z6o-61 marriage for, 286, 295 on Medina, 68 against mosque lectures, 221-z3 with Najwa, 180-82, 200, 260-61, 264-66,270-71 name of, 128-z9 poems and, 200 propaganda on, 199 responsibility for, 128, 136-44,190, 215-16, 241-4z retaliation and, 239-41 romantic dreams for, 200 sadness of, 189 Sakhr with, 216-18, 235 Sasson and, xiv, 287-9o school for, 71-72, 108-11, 275-77 sisters' husbands from, 259-6o forsnake, 204 solitariness of, 65, 259 songs and, 199-2oo summary on, 295 against terrorism, xiii, 215-16, 287 thefts by, 65-66 against war, 221, 225, 241-43, 287-89 warnings for, 277-78, 279-80, 284, 311-12 without water, 61-62 wife for, 230, 258, 286, 287, 295 women and, 57 against al-Zawahiri, 129, z12-13 bin Laden, Osama. See oho specific daughters Najwa and, 61, 95, z7o Osama's fatherhood for, 67,101-2 Dawoud, Osama, 121 'Declaration of jihad,' 310 divorce for Allia/Grandfather bin Laden, 40, 167-68, 291, 301 bin Laden, Ali, and, t2o children and, 6-7,120 in culture, 41 for Khadijah, 104,120, 308 of Osama parents', 40, 168 Osama/Najwa and, z67,282 for women, 168 dogs Abdul Rahman and, 133, 188-89 bin Laden sons and, 133-34,187-89 Mujahideen against, 133-34 for Omar, 176, 184, 188 Prophet Mohammed against, 133, 188 dream(s) about cow, 227 political/militant activities v., 69 of bin Laden, Kadhija, 259-6o of bin Laden, Khairiah Sabar, 52-53, 305 of bin Laden, Mohammed, 271-73, 278 of bin Laden, Osman, 281 of bin Laden, Siham, 53, 305 to bin Laden, Khadijah, 50-51, 304 in culture, 12, 56, 259-6o of Fatima, 259-6o to first cousins, 12 of Grandfather bin Laden, 8, 40, 167-69, 278, 291, 301 of Najwa, 13-14, 41, 302 for Omar, 286, z95 political activities and, 37 thoughts about, 12-13 Massoud, Ahmad Shah Northern Alliance and, 216 Taliban against, 155, 216-17, zig against terrorism, 155 mathematical skills, 42 Mecca crow fable v., See also specific mothers marriage arrangement and, 12-13 of Najwa, 5-6, 13 Najwa as, 41, 28z-83 rada (milk mother) as, toy Mubarak, Hosni, 130, 286 assassination attempt on, 135-36, 145, 195, 309 Muhahid, 72 Mujahideen, 30 in Afghanistan, 72-73, 303, 304 arrest of, political activities against, 83-84 bin Laden sons and, 112-13 definition of, 72 against dogs, 133-34 at family farm, 83-84 influx of, 178,192-94 loyalty of, 112-13,144 Mullah Omar as, 158-59 Muslims as, 72-73 older v. See also Christians; Jews America and, 193-94 blame for, 213 Haj attack on, 303 Muhahid as, 72 Mujahideen as, 72-73 against premarital sex, 178 violence against, 27,194 world rulership by, 177 Naji. 237 Dictaphone for, 165 disability of, 159-6o divorce and, 267, z8z drinks for, 164-65 English for, 1o8 family concerns for, 151 family farm and, 43-44 fatwa from, 310 favorite items of, 165 fourth wife for, 53 friends of, 198-99 gardening by, 43, 96-97 health of, I02,159-6o, 172 help from, 47-48, 58 horses for, 33-34, 43, 57 - 59 113-14, 243-44,253 humiliation and, 1z1, 141, 163-64 against Israel, 313 for Jihad, 248-49 location of, after 9/11, z86, 313 Massoud and, 155 mental skills of, 42 against modern conveniences, 43, 6o, 115,125 mosque's speeches by, 84 Mujahideen and, 1o6, 112-13, 303, 3o6 Najwa's trust for, 91, 18o-8r, 183, 187, 281-82 nature for, zo-21, 43-44, 96-97 Nourallah's affection for, 151-52 Omar about, 40-42 poverty for, 223-z4 pride of, 121 Prophet Mohammed v., xiii-xiv modern conveniences Osama against, 43, 6o, 115,125 toilets and, 227-28 modern prescription drugs asthma v., See also political activities; politicallmilitant activities on aging, 224 Allia and, 8, 166, 251-52, 254, 292 against America, 145, 176-77, 194 annulled marriage of, 293, 309 assassination attempt on, 123-26 for austerities, 61-62, 99-loo, u6, 173 BBC for, 199 329 broken pledge by, 85 character of, 38, 122, 129, 141 civilians v., for wives, 49 religion for, 40-41, 43, 221 riding accident of, 243-44 safe houses for, 239-40, 244, 311 Saudi Arabia and, 254, 3o6, 307, 309 without Saudi citizenship/assets, 1z8, 145 second wife for, 49-51 Simplicity for, 54, 68, 107-8, 115, 151, 152, zo8 against singing, 1q9 against sons' pigeons, r18 sons v. See bin Laden, Siham singing Osama against, 199 sheik on, zoo soccer, 44, 81 Somalia, 39 against America, 145 Black Hawk helicopter attack in, 145 Mogadishu attack in, 308 sons political activities and, 34-36 as 'prisoners,' qz-43 status from, 24, 27, 51, 54, 74 Soviet Union in Afghanistan, 27, 30, 177, 303-6 Jihad against, 30 Spain, al-Qaeda attacks in, 317 sports for bin Laden sons, 44,101,110-11, 120-22 brutality in, 110-11 soccer, 44, 81 swimming, 98-99, tot, 120-22 Sudan. 174-75 to Tora Bora, 174-75 Tanzania, U.S. embassy attack in, 136-37, 311 teachers, cruelty of, 71-72 terrorism Massoud against, 155 Omar against, xiii, z15-16, z87 seeds of, xiv terrorist Abdel Rahman as, 131 Najwa v., 177, 193-94 Khobar Towers building attack on, 309, 316 lectures against, 195 Mogadishu attack on, 308 for Mujahideen, 73, 77 Muslims and, 193-94 9/11 retaliation by, 285-86, 313 Osama against, 145, 176-77, 194 Palestinians v., See also Mujahideen allowances as, So al-Madani as, 81-82 Osama as, 73, 74-75, 305, 3o6 warlords, of Afghanistan, 154-55 water Osama against, 61-6z at Tora Bora, 186 wealth education and, no wives and, 40 weapons AK-47s, 1z5, 139 explosives, 211, 237 grenades, 208, z10-11 tanks, 120 wives. See also 9/ir Sunni Muslims, Wahhabi sect, 174-75 swimming for bin Laden sons, 101, 120-22 for bin Laden women, 98-99 Syria Baath Party for, xv facts on, xv Latakia in, 3-5 map of, zo Najwa and, xv, 76, 85, z81-83, 312 friendly fire from, z16-17 against Massoud, 155, z16-r7, z19 Omar, Mullah, for, 159 Osama with, zi9 al-Qaeda v., See also attacks); Jihad; war against bin Laden sons, 71-72 to civilians, 194, 237 conversation about, 241-43 Haj attack and, 303 against Muslims, 27,238-39 suicide missions as, 199, z62-63 Wahhabi sect, of Sunni Muslims, 174-75 war. z37 companions from, 226-27 dogs' deaths in, zz9-30 front lines in, z16-I8, 219-20 Iraq-Iran, 79 mentally challenged child and, zz8-z9 Omar against, ZZI, 225, 297-89 professionalism in, zzo Six Day War, z9 tour in, 227-28 weapons of, 125, 139, zo8, zio-u, 220, 237 Wounded in, 219 war hero. An entire network of antiterrorism protocols was in place, and while they could facilely be caricatured as Bush's overreach, they could also quietly be left in place as proven safe guards against attack. In a clear and compelling tone, Beinecke draws from the most current and authoritative sources any- FOREWORD where to lay out the case for American action against world climate change. To argue against them, at this point, is the twenty
13 CHAPTER ONE first-century equivalent of saying the Earth is flat. Republicans de- u cided that fanning anti-immigrant feelings would energize their base and drive them to the polls, and many GOP candidates in 2008 ran strongly against 'amnesty' for illegals. The genocide against the Tutsis, the triumph of the RPF, and the downfall of the Hutu government hap pened during her last months at Kyebambe school. When people talk against America I don't feel happy. I was warned I'm not supposed to write anything critical of the government, or any thing favorable to the rebels, or they were going to get charges against me for that. In 1986, after a series of clashes with the Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, President Reagan launched an air strike against the Libyan navy, sinking two warships. 'I hate Qaddafi,' says Kazmir, and Reagan's military action convinced him that the Republicans would more vigorously defend American-and Israeli-interests against Muslim fundamentalists. As late as mid-2008, when much of America had turned against the Iraq War, Kazmir's support remained unshaken. I suppose this is not the majority view today, but it is mine, and I have to start, on these matters, from where I am'' Bundy 17 LESSONS IN DISASTER LEGEND Dr THE ESTABLISHMENT acknowledged the criticism that 'the Johnson administration campaigned against a wider war and then promptly started one,' leading some to con clude, 'this was sheer duplicity. 'It is of the highest importance,' wrote Bundy, 'that the United States Government avoid either the appearance or the roality of public recrimination from one part of it against another, and the Pres ident expects that all senior officers of the Government will take ener getic steps to insure that they and their subordinates go out of their way to maintain and to defend the unity of the United States Government both here and in the field .1163 forces, as necessary, in direct actions against North Vietnamess Exactly two months after Kennedy's death, the chiefs were proposing air strikes against Hanoi and the deployment of U.S. troops, not just in an advisory role but in offensive operations against the North. The final element of Bundy's plan was an un specified 'initial strike against the north' that would be 'carefully de signed to have more deterrent than destructive impact, as far as possible.' Generic invocations of American resolve in the fight against global communism were suitable; so were abstract encomiums about the U.S. commitment to support the government of South Vietnam. The attorney general's condition for participating was that there should be no photographers, 'which I now know was as hard for the Pres ident as a ban against smoking for a 30-year addict-though he accepted it readily in the interests of harmony.'' is the program of graduated air attacks directed against the will' of the North Vietnamese regime.' Kennedy's policy rejecting combat troops in Vietnam; Johnson's manipulative political style; George Ball's inability to win the argument against Americanization; Bundy's own emphasis in 1965 on greater pub lic debate-these were the subsidiary themes of the war he was predis posed to address. If it means a couple bf hundred thousand troops and a permanent commitment to bomb, I'm going to go with George Ball against Dean Rusk. that the odds are against their win ning' unless and until they are in fact losing-which, as the memoran dum rightly notes, is not now the case'' The CIA analysis noted that the most important prerequisite for success would be 'actually beginning to turn the tide' against the Vietcong, but this was not assured. 'He couldn't tell the truth, it was an act against nature,' said Bundy.'He Bundy enumerated several 'disputed questions' at the center of the Vietnam debate-questions the administration had still not resolved as it approached an imminent decision to more than dou ble its ground troop commitment to South Vietnam: 'What are the chances of our getting into a white man's war with all the brown men against us or apathetic? ... Bundy further stipulated that to be a true arbiter of military strategy in the summer of 1965 would have re quired 'the ability and determination to try to help President Johnson against his will.'' to maximize their deterrent impact and their menace' and to launch 'an initial strike against the north.' In 2007, many of those same insurgents were using those weapons to fight alongside the United States against al-Qaeda. And, if Feith is to be believed, Bush decided against a prolonged occupation of Iraq but was too weak or too inattentive to make his own administration follow his orders. The Iranians also offered support for 'the establishment of democratic institutions and a non-religious government' in Iraq; full cooperation against terrorists (including 'above all, al- 7g Unintended Consequences Qaeda'); and an end to material support to Palestinian groups such as Hamas. 82 Unintended Consequences On December 3, 2007, the U.S. intelligence community undercut President Bush's case against Iran and shredded the president's already diminished credibility. Unless the AK authorized military strikes against PKK bases in northern Iraq, the military threat ened to portray it as disloyal, which in turn might provide -as it had in the past-the pretext for a coup. The Awakening could turn against the Americans, who were only recently the enemy. In the South Pacific, East Timorese rebels fought with homemade weapons for twenty-four years against the far more powerful In donesian army and helped win the territory's independence in 1999. Iraq's Kurds understandably do not want to be part of a country that committed genocide against them in the name of pan-Arab nationalism. The most recent referendum, in 1995, narrowly failed, and most observers believe that, as Quebec becomes more multiethnic, the trend is against separatism.) We also be smirched our ideals in search of allies against the Soviet Union, supporting apartheid South Africa, South American dictators, Afghan fundamentalists, and Saddam Hussein. The Afghan fundamentalists facilitated the deadliest attack ever on Ameri can soil, and the United States ended fighting two wars against erstwhile cold-war ally, Saddam Hussein. His grand father was a colonel in the imperial guard in St. Petersburg and fought against the Ottomans in Bulgaria under Alexander II's leadership. Back in the 1970s, Greenberg had the idea that AIG would write political risk insurance-insurance against expropria tion, currency inconvertibility, and the like, something unheard of for a private insurance company. A claim had been made against the company in the peo ple's court,' he recalls, 'and no one was allowed to leave the country if any litigation was pending. The company was subsequently renamed Richmond Insurance Co. and in 2005, after Greenberg left, AIG had to admit to regulators it controlled the company, since AIG not 158 Fallen Giant only managed it but guaranteed its outside investors like Munich Re against loss. His integrity has been ques tioned, with allegations of fraud levied against him. He is not trying to find something to do besides defend himself against a variety of charges. billion settlement with state and federal a'dties 2006 1887-2000 1992 2001 2005 Franchises are AIA is granted first AIG purchases September 27, AID sues built in Eastern foreign life insurance American SICO for possession of Europe, Russia, license by China General about $20 billion in AID India, China, and shares other locations October 17, SICO counten:ues against AIG, defending ownership of AIG shares December 5, Spitzer charges Greenberg and fellow executors with defrauding Stan Foundation 35 years ago 2006 Civil sail between attorney general and Greenberg and Howard Smith anticipated Greenberg ooranues as chair of SICO, C.V. Star 8 Co., and Starr Foundation Endnotes Chapter 1 1. renamed, 82, 87 assets of, 186 charges against Greenberg and AIG and, 166,184 Deferred Compensation Profit Participation Plan (DCPPP), 7 - 9,14,141,168,186,188-194 Greenberg as chairman of, 185-187 ownership of, 189-190 Starr, Park, and Freeman, 57 Steiger, Paul, 101 Stempel, Ernie, 35, 67, 83, 99, 104 Stempel, Max, 83 Strauss, Robert, 125 Sullivan, Irene,104 Sullivan, Martin, 31, 34,112, 166, 167-170,173,190 SunAmerica Inc., 143 Swain, John, 86-87 T Ta Mei Wan Pao, 41, 46 Tata AIG General/Life Insurance companies, 142 Tese, Vincent, 197 Thackery, Ted, 41 Thomas, Gladys, 149 'Three 15s,' of Greenberg, 8, 156 Tizzio, Tom, 144 Trade associations, 145 228 Index Trade in services, legal establishment of, 126-129 Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, 84 Tse, Edmund, 167 Tse, K.K. (Kong-Kai), 37-38 Chinese Communists and, 60,63 succession issue and, 102-103,105 World War II and AIU files, 47, 55 Tse,Stephen, 37-38 Turkey, 125 Tweedy, Ann, 67 Tweedy, Clare, see McMorris, Clare Tweedy Tweedy, Gordon B.: background of, 93 leaves company, 104 OSS and, 93-94 Starr's marriage and, 67, 68 Starr and, 79-80 Starr Foundation and, 199-200 succession issues and, 78, 100-104 Tweedy, Mary, 93,100-101, 105 U Umansky, Joseph, 172 Union Excess Reinsurance Company, 176 United States Life Insurance Company, 39 V Vance, Cyrus,118,123-124 Vargas, Jesus, 55 Vietnam, 55,142 W Wall Street journal, 101, 105,174-175, 197 Ware, Clyde, 19, 20, 40 Weill, Sanford,167 Whitehead,John C.,174-175 Williams, John T,19 Willumstad, Robert, 169 Wooster, John, 170 World Trade Organization, 111 World War II, 45-50 Y Youngman, Robert, 77-78 Youngman, William S.: American Life Insurance Company headquarters design and, 73-74 background of, 92-93 Greenberg and, 96-99 OSS and, 93-94 sells shares to Hurd,103-104 Starr's later years and, 75-77 Starr and, 79-80 succession issue and, 99-105 Youngman, William 5.111,101-102, 5 Foreign Companies and American Pension Funds that Help Iran Build the Bomb...............................................................................103 5 FOREIGN COMPANIES AND AMERICAN PENSION FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB One of our national nightmares is that Iran, in the grip of the ayatollah and his religious fanatics, will develop nuclear weapons. 104 I FLEECED Do you trust Iran? U.S. COMPANIES AND FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB I 105 THE DIRTY DOZEN that Do Business with Iran atel-Lucent Royal Dutch Shell NP Paribas Sinopec Hyundai Statoil Lundin Petroleum Stolt Nielsen `Oil & Natural Gas Corporation '..:Source: billion 2006 merger of Alcatel SA and Lucent Technologies, this company now operates a multi-million-dollar contract with Iran to provide a fully integrated communication system at the South Paris gas fields. U.S. COMPANIES AND FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB I 107 HOW THE DIRTY DOZEN KEEP IRAN AFLOAT Alcatel-Lucent • An $11.8 • ENI operates out of three offices in Tehran: Saipem SPA Iran, Snam progetti, and ENI Iran BV The latter handles exploration and pro- 108 I FLEECED duction while the first two manage all oilfield services, construction, and engineering projects. U.S. COMPANIES AND FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB I 109 Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Tehran; Iranian 110 I FLEECED Telecommunications Manufacturing Co., Shiraz; ITS Tehran; OSRAM Iran Ltd., U.S. COMPANIES AND FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB I 111 Stolt Nielsen • The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a cease and desist order in April 2002 after investigating bank transactions initiated by U.S. based employees of Stolt-Nielsen Transportation, Stolt-Nielsen SAs U.S. unit, and shipping agents in Iran. He reports, 'My office has forced a number of U.S. companies to cease do- U.S. COMPANIES AND FUNDS THAT HELP IRAN BUILD THE BOMB 1 113 ing business, through their foreign subsidiaries, in Iran ... [we have] prompted Halliburton, the Aon Corporation, Cooper Cameron, Cono coPhilips, Foster Wheeler, and General Electric to not only assess their fi nancial and reputational risks posed by their business ties to Iran, but to commit to ceasing those activities.' These loans 114 I FLEECED were approved several years ago in the wake of the devastating earthquake that rocked Iran. 116 I FLEECED • If you are a retiree, write your pension fund and ask it to desist from investments in companies that invest in Iran and other terrorist nations. also think tanks presidential campaign of, 63, 66, 67 Kyoto Protocol, 23,153, 202, 296, 297, 359, 390, intelligent design, c59-6o presidential victory of, 57,385 394 Intercollegiate Studies Institute, 281 Voting Rights Act of, 54,64,85-86,90 Internal Revenue Service (IRS), 76, 83, 84, 284 Wallace and, 66 Labor Department, 160, 60,284 International Criminal Court, 297, 389, 390 Johnson, Ross, 123 Labor Party, 151, 152 internationalism, 42 Johnson, Valerie, 275 labor unions, me unions Internet, 189,358,386 JvinedattbeHeart (Gore and Gore), 370 Lafayette, Marquis de, 314 bloggerson,164,r65,z5o Joiner, C. M. 'Dad,' 136 Laffer, Arthur, 89 homeschooling and, 19r Jones, Paula, 286 LaHaye, Tun, 83 swarming and, r95 Jopling,Lord, 203 La Montague, Margaret, 284 investors, 245 Jordan, Barbara, 37 Landon, Alf, 92 InvisiM Government The (Hunt), 43-44 Joseph, Keith, 334 Lang,Jack,368 Iran, 203,209,217 9 222,567,390 Joyce, Michael, 79, r67 LaPlerre, Wayne, X8,110,177,195 456 • INDEX Lasch, Christopher, 65 Laski, Harold, 9 Latinos,114,124,141,148,235,238-42,243, 244,266-67,270,277 Lay, Ken, 142 Leadership Institute, 195, 195,281 League of Women Voters, 284 Lem, Norman, 372 Leavis, E R., 73 Leavitt, Mike, l8z Lebanon, 221, 389 Lt Carr6, John, 204 Left, 15,153, 315, 322 Old, IS see also liberals; liberals and liberalism, American; socialism LeftBehind books,165, 3ro Lcibovitz, Annie, 37 Lekachman, Robert, 6o Leno, Mark, 378 Le Pen, Jean-Marie, 349-50 Lesher, Richard, 99 Letwin, Oliver, 334-36,338 Letwin,Shirley Robin, 334 Levy, Bernard-Henry, 300 Lewinsky Monica, if, Ito,121,153, 133,231, 287 Lewis, Sinclair, 342 Libby,Lewis 'Scooter,'200,204 'liberalAmerica,' conservatives in, 270-88 Lb-al Lnagination,The (Trilling), 43 liberals, U, 292 use of term, 15, 69 liberals and liberalism, American, 9, to, D, 1 98, 2 9 2 ,340,353,354-73 in academia, 43, 50, 283, 371 aging, incomprehension of, 247-48 G. W Bush hated by, 356, 381, 384-85 G. W Bush's programs and, 259 classical, 341,343 conservative hostility toward, 72,332-33 constraints on future liberal president, 365-67 Democratic Party and, 64-68,69 failure of, 356, 357, 383 former, as neoconservatives, see neoconservatives foundations run by, 166-67 in Hollywood, 68,371,372-73 hope for, 385-86 intellectuals, 43,51,170,235 Kerryand,363-64 lack of focus and influence of, 166-67 LINOs, 367 in mcdia,112, i65 from 1964-1988,63-93 from 1988-2000,94 Overreach of, 105-9, 122 rule of two-thirds and, 356 Supreme Court and, 22 think tanks of, ro3,157,166,170 women and, 282-83 see aho Democrats, Democratic Party Lr'bendTradition in Ameriut The (Hartz), 43 Liberia, 359 libertarians, 51, 78,157, i58,252-53,267,34o liberty, 13,175,192, 260, 340, 341, 344 American Revolution and, Y8,319 Liberty Park, 179-80,182,194,195,196 Liberty University, 34 Libya, 221 ,3 8 9 Lieberman,Joe,360,364,371 LesandtheLymgLarsWhoTell7bemAFair andAalmieedLook at the Right (Franken), 165 Lfk 43 life expectancy, 305 Likud Party, 204, 208 LillyEndowment, 8o Limbaugh,Rush, lr2-13,r62,z15,216 Lincoln, Bruce, 145 Lind, Michael, 31,113,136, 204, 339 Lindh,JohnWalker, 395 Lindsay,John,r8o Lindsey, Larry, 154 Lipset, Seymour Martin, 72 Livingston, Bob, 122 Lodge, Henry Cabot, 8, 42, 55 Lomborg, Bjorn,16o London, 302, 317, 327 London School of Economics, x52 Los Angeles, Calif., 238-39, z4o, 243 Los Angeles County, 267 LosAngeles7rrrtet 56 Losing Gro~d (Murray), n5 LotrJohn,168 Lott,Trent,52,90,138,163,249-50,251,262, 263,267 Louisiana, 53,231,309 Lovestone, Jay 322 Low, David, i9S Lucas, Ken, 355 Luce, Clue Boothe, 92 Lungren, Dan, 125, 125,369 McCain,John, 95,127, 132,154,185, 200, 215, 358,366,380 McCarthy, Joseph, 32-33,45 - 4 6 ,5 6 ,349 P Bush and, 29, 32, 45 character and behavior Of,29,45-46 McClintock,Tom, z66,267 McCormack, John, 64 McCracken, Paul, 49 McGovern, George, 67, 85, x47, 262, 311, 372 McKinley, William, 227-z8, 238, x48 Macmillan, Harold, 295 McVcigh,Tmlothy, 349 , 3 6 9 Madison,James,319,321,387 Madrid, 391 Magaziner, Ira, log magazines, 43,154,166 Magnet, Myron,173,114,156 Maine, 20 Main Street (Lewis), 342 Major, John, 346 Makepeace, Mary Lou,188 Mahaux,Andr6, 339 MalveaUX, Julianne, 273 Mandela, Nelson, 368 Manhattan Institute, 113.158, Some major oil producers (Venezuela, Iran) are openly hostile to a U.S.-led world economy. In its desperate ef forts to convince Iran to make peace, Iraq dumped chemical warfare agents on Iranian troops, hit Iranian cities with missiles and air strikes, and at tacked Iranian tankers and oil facilities-each of which prompted Iran (sooner or later) to respond in kind. In addition, Saddam continued to believe that the U.S. and Is raeli governments were virtually inseparable and that Israel had aggressively been helping Iran throughout the war. Saddam saw his suspicions confirmed with the 1986 revelation that the Reagan administration had secretly been selling weapons to Iran in what later came to be known as the Iran-contra scandal. The United States had sold Iran weapons via Israel, including thou sands of sophisticated tube-launched optical-tracking wire-guided (TOW) antitank missiles and Homing-All-the-Way-Killer (HAWK) surface-to-air missiles, in a bid to get Iran to release American hostages held by Iran's Lebanese ally, Hizballah. Previously, Iraq had been at a distinct disadvantage in that Bagh dad was only about a hundred kilometers from the Iranian border-putting it within easy range not only of Iranian air strikes but even of Iran's own Scuds-while Tehran was nearly six hundred kilometers from the Iraqi border, well beyond the range of Iraq's Scuds and far enough that Iraqi air strikes were difficult and vulnerable to the Iranian air defenses. In Au gust, even the Ayatollah Khomeini, who had resisted all previous pleas to end the war, was forced to concede that Iran could not fight both Iraq and the United States any longer. Many saw Saddam as little worse than Ferdinand Marcos, Augusto Pinochet, or the shah of Iran and began to think that he might actually take the place of the shah in a revival of the Twin Pillars policy. The Worm Turns 27 CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT, 1988-1990' After the Iran-Iraq War, Saddam recognized that he had to take action to address the political and economic distortion it had caused. He also reminded The Worm Turns 31 his audience of the hardships Iraq had endured while fighting Iran, calling for a debt moratorium to alleviate Iraq's burden. In a radio address on August 30, hat 'The United States depends on the [ever decided a war in the history of war between us and Iran, the Iranians d approximately 600 aircraft, all U.S. ed training in the United States. Second, the Bush administration re mained captive to the old geopolitical thinking of the 1980s, which as sumed that a strong, cohesive Iraqi state was necessary to balance Iran. The Shia were quite naturally perceived as being aligned with Iran, and the Kurds, who had demanded an independent state of Kurdistan The Wnrm Tvrns 49 for decades, were very fragmented in their leadership and were a constant source of concern to Turkey.' Iraqi Slate and Society 141 THE SHFAH Iraq is a majority Shi'ah country, one of only three in the world (Bahrain and Iran are the other two). Although during the Iran-Iraq War the regime conscripted millions of Shi'ah, they were kept out of sensitive areas within the armed services (such as military intelligence), and few Shi'ite officers made it to the higher levels of command. While Iran converted to Shi'ism starting in the sixteenth century, in Iraq the growth of Shi'ism came as Iraq's nomadic tribes became settled largely in the nineteenth century and so gave up their primitive version of Islam for the more fully developed Shi'ism of an-Najaf Iraqi Stale a,,d Sariet_i 143 and Karbala. Further, not since the crushing of Shi'a tribal rebellions in the 1930s has a serious religious or political move ment emerged among the Shi'a to press for such demands: ' 9 Under the wrong set of circumstances, it is conceivable that this long standing position might change and Iraq's Shi'ah might suddenly find that they prefer a separate state or even union with Iran. oil-rich Kuwait and Khuze stan province in Iran. His bids for territorial conquest and the development of Iraqi military power were part of that ambition, but so too was his desire to weaken Iran and to drive the United States out of the Gulf. This scheme succeeded in triggering the long-expected Is raeli invasion of Lebanon but had no impact on Iran, which invaded Iraq the next month. And when Baghdad realized that the air force was not safe from coalition superpenetrator munitions in their hardened aircraft bunkers, they took the extraordinary step of flying planes to Iran (where they have since been assimilated into the Iranian air force, much to Bagh dad's chagrin).' During the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqis 160 IItAO 'I'OUAI committed their air force sparingly, throwing it into the fray only when they were really desperate. During the latter half of the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq's military leadership recog nized the problems and developed a system that allowed their tactical forces to largely avoid these weaknesses and instead take advantage of their more limited range of strengths. The Iraqi Army began the Iran Iraq War as one of the most heavily politicized forces in modem history but ended it as one of the most professional a modern Arab state has ever fielded.' Iraqi forces rarely ever suffered from short- The Threat 163 ages of ammunition or other supplies, and by the end of the Iran-Iraq War, their logisticians had gotten so good that they could pick up several divi sions and move them the length of the country in just a few days with rela tive ease. In addition, many of the troops and junior officers who fought the battles of the Iran-Iraq War have retired from active service or have been demobilized, and they have taken their valuable combat experi ence with them.' UNSCOM inspectors discov ered that the Iraqis were convinced that WMD had saved the regime on two occasions: during the Iran-Iraq War, when Iraq used chemical warfare to turn back Khomeini's hordes; and in 1991, to deter a U.S. drive on Bagh dad. Thus, some Israelis would prefer to see the United States concentrate first on Iran, The Regional Perspective 201 since they tend to see Iraq as a longer-term threat and Iran as an immediate one. As much as $500 million worth of Iraqi oil is smuggled through Iranian waters to the UAE each year, and perhaps another $100 million to $200 million worth is trucked overland through Iran.' This approach had the desired effect and was very important in removing a potentially serious problem for U.S. forces in the region-a threat from Iran on their eastern flank. What's more, the Iraqis used CW in every battle on Iranian soil once they had the capability to do so (which they did not have during their invasion of Iran in 1980 and Iran's counteroffensives in 1980-81). When Iraqi forces again attacked into Iran in 1988, they em ployed massive chemical warfare barrages. The Iraqis used chemical munitions quite indiscriminately during the Iran-Iraq War after they had weaponized the agents and produced adequate stocks of munitions. This has caused Saddam to engage in some of his most dangerous foreign policy gambits-the 1974 attack on the Kurds, the 1980 invasion of Iran, the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, the de cision to fight for Kuwait in 1990-91, and the decision to attack Kuwait again in 1994-all of which were driven in large part by his fear of a threat to his internal position that he believed he could rectify by external aggres sion. During the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq suffered many casualties by misusing its own chemical munitions, and in a future war with the United States, Iraqi troops would have to ask them selves who would suffer more if they actually used their WMD-the well equipped Americans or themselves? Even if they were convinced that they themselves would not be harmed by their own weapons, they might refrain for fear of killing large numbers of Iraqi civilians. If the United States were to launch a massive invasion of Iraq, what country would come to Saddam's defense? Iran, Syria, North Korea, Libya, and the rest of the rogues' gallery might carp from the sidelines, but they would be unlikely to take any actions that could send them down along with him. K'AR MADE EASY precipitous U.S. withdrawal would cripple American credibility, doom reform in the Arab world and turn Iraq into a playground for terror ists and the armies of neighboring states like Iran and Syria.' Mr. Powell, why don't you ever mention such information? (4) Washington tilted in favor of Iraq during its war with Iran in the 1980s. No wonder: Almost half of those missiles had become part of the Iran Contra scandal's arms-for-hostages deal. 'Death to America' and 'Can I Have Your Autograph?' 7 TWO Iran and the Bomb 23 TtiREF The Blacksmith's Son 41 FOUR Iranian Square Dance 63 FI v E Guardians of the Revolution 83 six The Reformers 103 SEVEN Children of the Revolution 121 EIGHT The Mullahs 139 NINE The Opposition 155 TEN Out of Sync: Iran and the United States 175 F, E F v FEN The War on Terrorism and the Axis of Evil 193 rwF.EvF. Unintended Consequences and What Lies Ahead 209 Appendix: Iran's 2003 Offer to the United States 229 Notes 233 Select Bibliography 245 Index 247 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T HIS BOOK WOULD NOT have been written if not for Haleh Esfan diari, an Iranian-American scholar whose wisdom and warmth have inspired me for more than a decade. It was Haleh, who runs the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, who first suggested that I write a book after I returned to Washington from my sixth visit to Iran in February 2006. Hadi Semati, a professor of political science at Tehran University, has enlightened countless Americans about Iran's complicated politics and patiently interrupted his own work at the Wilson Center to answer my unending questions. Iran's outgoing ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and former ambassador to France, Sadegh Kharrazi, provided thought ful analysis, as did several European envoys in Tehran who, for diplo matic reasons, asked to remain nameless. PREFACE A s I WRITE THIS in the fall of 2008, the United States and Iran ap pear no closer to ending the diplomatic breach that has kept them bosom enemies for thirty years. But the U.S. position-demanding that Iran first suspend ura nium enrichment before substantive negotiations can take place remains unchanged. Meanwhile, Iran continues to defy Washington and United Nations resolutions by adding to its stock of centrifuges and its pot of low-enriched uranium. Iran insists it will never build weapons from this uranium, but much of the rest of the world remains skeptical. -Barbara Slavin Septembe r 2008 INTRODUCTION M v FIRST GLIMPSE of Iran came courtesy of Saddam Hussein. Iran, I decided, would have to wait. A woman intellectual I met said that for the first time since the revolution, she and her husband were thinking of leaving Iran because two writers they knew who had signed a petition protesting government censorship had disappeared, and one had been found dead in his Tehran apartment. I covered a group of U.S. wrestlers who arrived in Tehran to compete in a tournament-the first Americans officially representing their country in Iran since the seizure of U.S. hostages. Iran, it seemed, was going through a Soviet-style perestroika and would soon become the 'normal' country the vast majority of its people wanted it to be. Still, in May 2003, Iran put forward a broad agenda for talks that included all the issues of concern to the INTRODUCTION United States, from terrorism to nuclear weapons to the Arab-Israeli dispute. Meant to apply s BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES to Arab feelings about the United States, it also captures the tortured history of Iran and the United States. My hope is that this book will enlighten Americans about the conse quences of both governments' actions and help them understand the complexity of Iran and the need for creativity, patience, and prudence in dealing with it. Otherwise, we will be as unpleasantly surprised by the results of our missteps with Iran as we have been by our involve ment in Iraq. Clad in his customary antielitist attire a BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES (a cheap black sports coat over a black shirt, beige sweater vest, and gray pants), Ahmadinejad delivered an hourlong harangue about Iran's mis treatment by the United States. Over their requisite black scarves, they wore green headbands proclaiming allegiance to Hossein and support for Iran's right to nuclear energy. BOSOM ENEMIES through Iran,' Abbas Maleki, a former deputy foreign minister, said in a 2001 interview, referring to U.S. pressures on Central Asian nations to send their oil west out to Turkey rather than using the shortest route, south through Iran to the Persian Gulf. 'We would lose the image of Iran in the Islamic world,' he said. Conservative political forces repeat edly sabotaged attempts by Iran to improve relations with the United States when the reformist Mohammad Khatami was in power. From Iran's perspective, those attacks were both a blessing and a curse. A blessing because the Bush administration declared war on Iran's two greatest regional foes: the Sunni fundamentalist Taliban regime in Afghanistan that harbored al-Qaeda and also had murdered Farsi speaking Afghan Shiites and Iranian diplomats; and the secular Baathist dictatorship of Iraq's Saddam Hussein, which had invaded Iran in 1980 and was responsible for the deaths of three hundred thousand Iranians. A curse because those two wars brought U.S. troops to Iran's borders and briefly raised the hopes of some Iranians that a similar act of 'liberation' would rid them of a repressive cleri cal government. Even Ali Khamenei, who became Iran's supreme religious leader after the death in 1989 of Ayatollah Khomeini, suspended the ritual chant of 'Death to America' at Friday prayers at Tehran University out of deference to American feelings. Shah Ismail, who ruled from 1501 to 1526, made Shiite Islam Iran's state religion, but the form the faith took-with many European and pre-Islamic characteristics-has more in common with Catholicism and evangelical Christianity than it does with the austere Sunni Islam that predominates in the Arab na tions across the Persian Gulf. For example, the most important Shiite holiday, Ashura, in Iran and other Shiite centers feels like Good Friday, with passion plays about Hossein's death and parades of men and boys carrying heavy cross-shaped metal platforms, called alamat, adorned with symbols of the twelve most important Shiite religious figures, or imams. He seized power in 1925 and sought to drag Iran from feudalism to modernity in the space of only a few decades. However, the shah went too far for reli gious conservatives, and in 1964, he exiled their most prominent leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, after Khomeini protested a law granting immu nity from prosecution to U.S. diplomats, military advisers, and their families in Iran .4 Americans, of course, place the blame for the breakdown in relations primarily on Iran. The United States broke diplomatic relations with Iran in 1980, and other Western nations scaled back their ties because of the embassy seizure, leaving Iran isolated when Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, thinking Iran would collapse easily, decided to invade the country in September 1980. 'DEATH TO AMERICA' AND 'CAN I HAVE YOUR AUTOGRAPHT 1s Iran also backed militants in Shiite communities in Arab nations along the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Shiites who, according to a U.S. indictment, exploded a truck bomb in front of a U.S. Air Force barracks in Saudi Arabia in 1996, killing nineteen U.S. airmen. Iran built relationships with Shiite groups opposed to the Sunni Muslim regimes of its neighbors, Afghanistan and Iraq, and had close ties with the Northern Alliance, an Afghan militia that the Bush administration relied on heavily to defeat the Taliban in 2001. And Iran organized the Badr Brigades, an Iraqi Shiite force, during Saddam's long reign, when thousands of Iraq Shiites fled to Iran to escape persecution and service in Saddam's military. One of the great ironies of Bush adminis tration Iraq policy is that when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, it was obliged to work closely with Shiite politicians who owed their very survival to Iran. Mostly, the Iranians sought what the Bush administration had always refused to give: recognition that after nearly three decades, Iran's system of government, however unappealing, was not about to disappear. TWO IRAN AND THE BOMB URIED UNDER SOFT BROWN hills of dirt that blend perfectly into a craggy desert landscape, Iran's largest known nuclear facility is rec ognizable from the road only because it is surrounded by watchtowers and antiaircraft batteries. BOSOM ENEMIES As this book is being written it is probably already too late to prevent Iran from acquiring the ability to make nuclear weapons. By the spring of 2006 Iran had mastered centrifuge technology to the point where it was able to enrich a small amount of uranium to the level needed for fuel for civilian power plants. A year later, Iran had installed more than 1,300 centrifuges at Natanz and produced more than 175 tons of uranium hexafluoride, the gaseous form of uranium that is fed into centrifuges for enrichment. Wherever the original tip came from, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog with which Iran had nominally been cooperating since 1970, confirmed the exile group's revelations, and Iran reluctantly began dribbling out information about a program it had concealed for eigh teen years. U.S. attention began shifting to Iran only when the war in Iraq 26 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES proved more challenging than the White House and civilian leadership of the Pentagon had anticipated, and Saddam's purported WMD failed to materialize. Still, the Bush administration was wary of dealing openly with Iran, a charter member of its 'axis of evil.' The so called EU-3, hoping to prevent the United States from following the same military path with Iran that it had with Iraq, engaged in sporadic negotiations with Iran and presented an offer in August 2005 that . promised a stockpile of five years of fuel for a nearly completed civilian reactor at the Iranian port of Bushehr, other trade concessions, and 'a higher state of relations' between Iran and European Union members. In return, Iran was asked not to pursue its nuclear fuel program for ten years. A tougher resolution passed in March 2007 also failed to convince Iran to suspend enrichment. If Iran had nuclear weapons majority Sunni nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, might seek them, too, destroying what remains of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that has limited the nuclear club za BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES for more than three decades. The United States would have to plan for the possibility of a nuclear exchange with Iran, and chances for lethal miscalculations would rise many times over in a region that holds 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. 'Iran is sud denly going to have a great deal more geopolitical oomph.'' The United States would be left with essentially two choices, both awful: live with a nuclear Iran or start another Middle East war. Western nations ended all nuclear cooperation with Iran after the 1979 revolution, and Ayatollah Khomeini initially forbade continua- IRAN AND THE BOMB zs tion of the nuclear program. In 1984, with Chi-' nese assistance, Iran opened a nuclear research center in Isfahan,a for mer capital known for its matchless Islamic architecture.' According to Iran's belated reports to the IAEA, Tehran got its first solid offer of technical assistance in building centrifuges in 1987 from Pakistan, whose top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, mas terminded a black market network that later provided Iran and other customers, including Libya, with centrifuge materials and plant de signs. Also in 1987, Iran lured back a top scientist who had headed a clandestine weapons program for the shah.' In the 1990s, Iran bought other essential components from China and Russia, and Russia agreed to complete the German reactors at Bushehr, which had been bombed and largely destroyed by the Iraqis during the Iran-Iraq war. The Rus sians went so far as to sign an agreement to provide Iran with an entire uranium enrichment plant, but opposition from the Clinton adminis tration nixed the deal. Iran also tried unsuccessfully to buy heavy water reactors from Russia, China, India, and Argentina. Russia also tried to sell Iran laser isotope separation technology, which is an other means of enriching uranium. ao BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES In 2005, Russia offered to produce enriched uranium for a series of Ira nian power plants and to take back spent fuel, but Iran insisted on its 'right' to make fuel on its own. In the spring of 2006, an exasperated IAEA declared that it was 'unable to make progress in its efforts to provide assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.... After more than three years of Agency efforts to seek clarity about all aspects of Iran's nuclear program, the existing gaps in knowledge continue to be a matter of concern. Any progress in that regard requires full trans parency and active cooperation by Iran.' The IAEA also had IRAN AND THE BOMB 31 trouble accepting Iran's assertions that while it acquired designs for ad vanced centrifuges in 1995, it did not start to work on them until 2002. Iran also wants to deter potential attackers, especially the United States and Israel, and nuclear-armed neighbors, including Pakistan. His successor went so far as to stage an elaborate televised ceremony in 2006 to announce that Iran had suc- IRAN AND THE BOMB 33 cessfully enriched a small amount of uranium at Natanz. As dancers in traditional costumes swirled around a stage clutching vials of what was said to be uranium gas, Ahmadinejad told an audience in the north eastern city of Mashhad, 'I formally declare that Iran has joined the club of nuclear countries.'' In fact, Iran ran the centrifuges for only twelve days and produced only a few grams of lightly enriched ura nium; a number of the centrifuges crashed and were destroyed. Referring to U.S. acceptance of Israel's nuclear weapons, he said, 'it is really unbe- IRAN AND THE BOMB as lievable why Americans make themselves the yardstick for being right and wrong. ' Hossein Mousavian, one of Iran's top foreign policy experts and a former nuclear negotiator, saw talks that took place between Iran and European diplomats in 2004 and 2005 as a kind of practice run for ne- as BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES gotiations on other issues, from terrorism to human rights, and the be ginning of an end to Iran's pariah status. 'The nuclear process is the first issue where after twenty-five years, Iran is sitting at table with Westerners discussing practical arrangements on the basis of interna tional rules and regulations,' he told me in 2005. But eliminating Iran's now much more advanced nuclear program would be a vastly more difficult challenge than taking out a single Iraqi reactor. Iran is several hours flying time farther from Israel, and the distance Israeli warplanes would have to traverse, together with the number of hidden targets they would have to hit, pose a far greater logistical challenge than the 1981 raid. Israel also lacks the ballistic and cruise missiles necessary to do the job and could not send its planes over Muslim countries en route to Iran without being de tected? Only a dramatic change in Iran's domestic IRAN AND THE BOMB ae politics or strategic environment might persuade the ruling clerics to set aside their nuclear ambitions. THREE THE BLACKSMITH'S SON T HE SUMMONS CAME ON my last day in Iran, only hours before I was due to fly home. A few bottles of mineral water and boxes of cookies had 42 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES been left on a table but, unheard-of in Iran, no one offered tea; the tea servers had the day off. He has inserted himself into Iran's complex diplomacy with the United States in interviews and press conferences and by sending an eccentric letter to President Bush in 2006-the first public overture to an American president by an Ira nian one since the 1979 revolution. He is the little man who triumphs over adversity, who stands up to the United States and shows that the ancient civilization of Iran has reached the apex of tech nological progress, membership in the nuclear club. Iran, the president allowed, would be willing to negotiate with the United States, but for talks to be successful, the Bush administration would have to give up its 'arro gant' behavior and accept Iran's rightful place as a major power in the Persian Gulf. The future president served as head engineer of the Guards' 6th Army Division, and later headed the Guards staff in western Iran, crossing the border at one point to the Iraqi city of Kirkuk. In contrast to the corruption and nepotism endemic in Iran-both before and after the revolution-he refused to help rel atives find housing. He predicted he would win three months before the election, when few people outside or inside Iran had ever heard of him.' He also rebutted Ahmadine jad's comments about Israel being 'wiped off the map,' saying that 52 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Iran had no such intention. The rebuttal got almost no attention outside Iran, even though Khamenei outranks the president in all matters. As for the nuclear issue, Laylaz said that Ahmadinejad was using it to bolster his own position in Iran and to provoke a hostile external reaction: 'When you create an external enemy, you can use it as a weapon inside the country.' His field of study-traffic engineering-did not broaden him in an intellectual sense, and he spent his entire academic career at one middling university, the Iran University of Science and Technology, in Tehran. While he was mayor he refused to meet European diplo mats, although he did see China's envoy-a reflection of his interest in fostering ties with countries unlikely to criticize Iran's internal policies or question his narrow worldview. Ahmadinejad, although not a cleric-he is the third layman to be Iran's president-used religion to diminish others. A video that circulated widely in Iran later showed Ahmadinejad discussing his experience at the United Nations with an Iranian cleric. He hadn't realized that as Iran's president, he would be taken so seriously. The United States was the problem, he told Wallace, not Iran. Hashemi later denied the comment and his father lost the elec tion, but this view of how the system might change to more closely resemble Western democracies is common in Iran. One reason for the vibrancy of political life in Iran compared to much of the Middle East is that the shah was overthrown so quickly- IRANIAN SQUARE DANCE as in a little over a year-that no single dominant ideology or party, such as the communists of the Soviet Union or China, emerged.' Barzargan described Iran after the shah's fall as 'a city with one hundred sheriffs' and his own government as 'a knife without a blade.' He also objected to the shah's grant of immunity from prosecution to U.S. diplomats and military officers stationed in Iran, a humiliating echo of the concessions bankrupt Iranian monarchs had made to Russians and Britons in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The leader must give final approval to the list of candidates for president and can dismiss the president if he is impeached by the par liament or judged incompetent by Iran's supreme court. The first assembly was elected in 1979 to draft Iran's Islamic con stitution and included nonclerics. Khatami dramatically eased social restrictions and improved channels between Iran and the West, but was eventually stymied by hard-line conservatives and hostil ity from the Bush administration. Ahmadinejad has sought to spread Iran's oil wealth more equally, to identify himself with the nuclear pro gram, and to project a tough image to the outside world. After the Bush administration offered in May 2006 to join talks with Iran on its nuclear program, Khamenei added yet another layer of bureaucracy to the foreign policy decision making process and formed a 'strategic committee for foreign policy' headed by the foreign minister during Khatami's presidency, Kamal Kharrazi.' The implication was that Ahmadinejad's team was not up to the task of dealing with such momentous issues and, by naming this body, Khamenei was also trying to make sure that all of Islamic Iran's mainstream political forces would be onboard before any major policy shifts. Khomeini's IRANIAN SQUARE DANCE 7s chauffeur, a former shop assistant in the Tehran bazaar, became one of the richest men in Iran.' So did Rafsanjani and his family, which, from a humble beginning as pistachio farmers, amassed a major stake in Iran's automobile industry and in an airline. Still firmly planted in Iran's inner circle, Rafsanjani has been a key figure in Iran from the time of the revolution, no matter what his formal title has been. 'Per sonalities are more important than positions in Iran,' said Karim Sad jadpour, an Iran analyst for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As of this writing, the major political forces in Iran include: MILITANT CLERICS ASSOCIATION: Many conservative clerics are af filiated with this group, which includes the leader, Khamenei; a long- IRANIAN SQUARE DANCE 75 time head of the Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Ali Meshkini (until his death in July 2007); and a former speaker of parliament, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1997. BOSOM ENEMIES CONNECTIONS In all societies, connections with high officials can be helpful; in Iran, they are a necessity. An elaborate vetting process is also required, as are repeated trips to Iran to prove one's interest in the country. I had traveled to Iran four times before I got my first major interview, with Rafsanjani, in 2005. When Larijani wanted to signal Iran's readiness to hold direct talks with the United IRANIAN SQUARE DANCE 77 States, he went out of his way to praise Hadley to me but sent no greet ings to Rice, even though she was Hadley's boss in the first Bush term and has had more impact on shaping U.S. policy toward Iran in the second term. 'The Islamic Republic of Iran is like a factory,' he told me. Tajbakhsh, who moved to Iran sev eral years ago after two decades in the West, said he has never had to IRANIAN SQUARE DANCE 79 pay a bribe to register a deed, get married, or handle other normal transactions. During six visits to Iran in ten years I was hit up only once-by an employee of the Ministry of Culture and Guidance-for a fifty dollar 'fee' to visit a cultural center for Iranian youth. 'Today Iran is xo BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES ruled by men who suppress liberty at home and spread terror across the world,' Bush said. Qalibaf ran a slick televi sion advertisement that showed him in a crisp uniform piloting an Iran Air flight. Sadjadpour said the ad was modeled after a trailer for the Tom Cruise movie Top Gun; the idea was to show Qalibaf as a heroic figure who would save Iran. Military fig ures, particularly from the Revolutionary Guards, would become even more prominent, accelerating a trend that is pushing Iran toward the 82 BITTER FRIENDS. FIVE GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION Y DRIVER IN IRAN is not easily fazed. A burly man in his late for ties who had been a wrestler in his youth, he has driven journal ists around Iran since the 1979 revolution and there is little about the country that surprises him anymore. The Guards protects Iran's top leaders and is in charge of its nuclear program and missile development. Its members and veterans rival Shiite Muslim clerics as the most influential figures in Iran today. Ahmadinejad is a former Guards officer, as are about half the members of his cabinet, two thirds of Iran's governors, and a third of the members of parlia ment. Ex-guardsmen head Islamic foundations that control a signifi cant portion of Iran's wealth and chair corporations in charge of major construction projects. Rezaie, for example, built a fortune for himself in construction and other businesses in his native Khuzestan, Iran's oil producing southwest province on the border with Iraq. Despite the ongoing war with Iraq, Iran sent about one thou sand Guards to Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and put together Hezbollah from a splinter faction of a secular Shiite group, Amal.b Hezbollah's summer 2006 raid into Israel-killing eight Israeli soldiers and capturing two-provoked a major confrontation that killed hundreds of Lebanese and scores of Israelis and heightened ten sions between Iran, the United' States, and Israel. Freeh also claimed that two leaders of the attack received sanctuary in Iran.' Iran has denied any involvement with the bombing and rebuffed a request by President Clinton in 1999 for assistance in solving the crime, a move that set back chances for U.S. eo BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Not long afterward, senior al-Qaeda operatives and trainers traveled to Iran to receive training and explosives.'' 'Iran, through its [Afghan] friends, gave accurate positions to the U.S. Air Force.' Just as the Guards had created Hezbollah to fight the Israelis, it had organized a party and militia in the early 1980s comprised of Iraqi Shiites who had opposed Saddam's regime and fled to Iran at the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war. Guards members became an important element in Iran's civilian economy, too, founding construction companies similar to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to build roads and repair Iran's war- , 94 BITTER FRIENDS. According to Clinton administration terrorism expert Simon, 'There's an increasing integration of the Guards and the regular parts of Iran's general purpose forces. Ahmadinejad's defense minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, was also a senior Guards commander in charge of Middle East opera tions from 1982 to 1985, when Iran began to spread its influence into Lebanon and the Arab states across the Persian Gulf. If Iran were to be attacked, he added, 'they'd have an integrated plan for defense.' Mohsen Rezaie accepted responsibility for his son's defection, giving a contrite speech in which he said that he had 'avoided forming close emotional GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION ss ties with family members in order to prevent doubt and weakness' dur ing the Iran-Iraq war.' Coincidentally or not, Rezaie's opinion of America appeared to change after his son returned to Iran. 'Think about the Indonesian, Pakistani, and Turkish militaries,' suggested Vali Nast, the Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School. But if the Bush administration chose to try to punish GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION 101 Iran, Iran would retaliate in Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Palestine, he said, and the United States would pay a heavy price. Khatami had been elected nearly two years earlier and had already improved the political and social atmosphere within the country and the way in which Iran was viewed from abroad. The reform campaign had been gathering intellectual momentum since the senseless carnage of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. Khatami used Iran's chairmanship of the Organization of Islamic Countries in 1997 as an excuse to refurbish ion BITTER FRIENDS. He called for a 'dialogue of civilizations' with the West and tolerance of opposing ideas within Iran. Instead of blaming the 'Great Satan,' as Iranian officials called the United States, for all of Iran's troubles, Khatami wrote, 'Let us not doubt that unless we un dergo an inner transformation, we cannot expect external forces to solve our problems for us.' He said he still felt it had been his duty to take part in the embassy seizure to pre vent the United States from continuing its historic pattern of interfer ence in Iran's political development. At least now, he said, Iran had no one to blame but itself for the way in which it was governed. Abdi was beaten in Qom after returning to Iran from his meeting with Rosen; As- 110 BITTER FRIENDS. Dariush Forouhar had been head of the Nation of Iran Party, which had supported the nationalist government of Mohammed Mossadegh in the 1950s. He also blamed Rafsanjani for sanctioning prior assassi nations and accused him of prolonging the Iran-Iraq war. Asadeh Moaveni, an Iranian-American journalist who was then cover ing Iran for Time magazine, wrote that Khatami broke down in tears when he announced his decision. 'If I had my way, I would try to serve Iran outside government,' the former head of the National Library said. Some blamed a boycott campaign encouraged by dissidents outside Iran. SEVEN CHILDREN OF THE REVOLUTION O x MY FIRST TRIP to Iran a decade ago, I met a lovely young woman who was fluent in English and worked for a travel agency in Tehran as a guide. But when I met her again a year later, on my second trip to Iran, she was much different. The spectacle of these kids being teargassed by Washington police in front of the White House in 1977 while the shah met President Carter helped build support in Iran and around the world for the revolution. The June 21, 1998, victory of Iran over the United States in a World Cup match in Lyons, France, triggered a nightlong celebration in Tehran and other cities the likes of which the country had never seen, as young women threw off their head scarves and boogied in the CHILDREN OF THE REVOLUTION its streets. The sexual revolution hit Iran with a vengeance in the mid nineties, and young women bragged to me about their conquests with stunning bravado in a nation where extramarital relations-if proven-can result in death by stoning. 'We see in Iran a movement for joy among children of the revolution who have started to reject everything the state embraces,' Mashayekhi said. BOSOM ENEMIES bly, in 2005, slogans on street banners praising the anniversary of Khomeini's return to Iran in 1979 were also lettered in pink. More than 9 out of every 10 Iranian children be tween the ages of six and fourteen can read and write, thanks to gov ernment investment in primary education, and they will not be satisfied with menial or make-work jobs when they are adults' The number of university students has also increased, from about 140,000 in 1979 to more than 1 million, and women now outnumber men on Iran's cam puses by about 3 to 2! million heroin addicts in Iran-as many as there are in the United States.' On a per capita basis, however, this means that Iran's rate of heroin addiction is 400 percent greater than it is in the United States. By comparison, Pakistan, another Islamic na tion where alcohol is not openly sold to the general public, has fewer than a million addicts, even though its population is more than twice that of Iran. Ahmadinejad, appointed mayor in 2003 before his election as president two years later, tried to give the cultural centers a more religious cast and Iran's young people drifted away. 'You have several things to do on the weekend in America but in Iran, it's lim ited,' he said apologetically. mil lion Internet users in Iran and 10 computers for every 100 Iranians. They preferred England and Russia to the U.S. government by a margin of 2 to 1; Russian leader Vladimir Putin was the most popular foreign leader, followed by then French president Jacques Chirac za Student activism associated with Iran's reform movement declined after Ahmadinejad's election, but there remain outlets for what I would call the loyal opposition. Sadeghi, bearded and chubby, was proud of the Web site's independence and said that he was optimistic about Iran's future because 'the responsibility is going to the younger generation.' He said he was not dis appointed by Khatami's failure to change the system because 'I never expected him to do anything for Iran. He would concentrate now, he said, on getting rich and enjoying life to the extent possible while ignoring the machinations of Iran's rulers. And he was still thinking about leaving Iran. There is a saying in Iran that Tehran is Iran's brain, Isfahan its heart, and Qom, its soul. In 1999, peddlers in the bazaar were hawking shopping bags bearing the name Titanic, after the movie, a huge hit in Iran as well as in the United wo BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES States. Qom's importance for Shiite theological studies, along with Iran's oil 142 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES wealth and revolutionary ideology, has given the Islamic republic con siderable soft power as it seeks to extend its influence in the Middle East and beyond. As a result, religious education has become a growth industry in Iran; Iravani estimates that there may be two hun dred thousand mullahs in Iran today, one for every thirty-five Iranians. 'The worst situation in Iran is where the supreme leader has power but the president has responsibilities,' he said. Short and a bit plump, with a pleasant round face and a neatly trimmed beard, Iravani said he believes that 'whatever political changes will happen in Iran will have to come from within the clerical system.' On a trip to the United States a few months after his release from prison in March 2006, he said he was confident that Iran would eventually shed its authoritarian system but admitted that the road ahead would be hard. 'We have a very large and widespread demo cratic movement in Iran,' he said, 'but this movement has two weak nesses: It's not organized ... Ganji served during the Iran-Iraq war in the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards and in the ministry of culture and Islamic guidance, in charge of li censing newspapers and books. Ganji stepped over the regime's red lines in the late 1990s and 2000, publishing investigative articles later collected in books such as The Dungeon of Ghosts and The Red Eminence, The Grey Eminences-that blamed Iran's senior leadership, including former president Rafsanjani, for the murder of dozens of in tellectuals and regime opponents. He also rejected the notion that U.S. military action would advance the cause of democracy in Iran. During his U.S. stay, Ganji took part in a three-day hunger strike to dramatize the plight of political prisoners in Iran and accepted an award from the National Press Club. But asked if he could become the leader of Iran's opposition forces, Ganji demurred. Sometimes I say, the leader of Iran is like a satellite: When you send it outside the atmosphere, nobody can bring it down.' Fakhravar's ability to influence Iran from abroad was doubtful, how ever, and he appeared to have discredited himself among many Irani ans by accepting the patronage of men such as AEI's Richard Perle and 160 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES Michael Ledeen, who strongly supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq and promoted Ahmad Chalabi, a controversial Iraqi exile, as a replacement for Saddam Hussein. Police and Hezbollahi have been less restrained in putting down protests far from Tehran in Iran's ethnic minority regions, a growing source of op position to the Islamic republic. HeAe nied, however, that his group sought to break the province away from Iran and join it to Pakistan's Baluchistan region. The MEK is on the State Department's terrorism list for bombings and assassinations carried out in Iran and attacks that killed six Ameri cans in Tehran in the 1970s, but the Bush administration has had an am bigious attitude toward the group. Should the MEK take power in Iran, Mohadessin said, it would set up a provi sional government headed by Maryam Rajavi for 'no more than six months' and then hold free and fair elections. She gave him a free ticket to France to watch Iran play the United States in a qualifying match for soccer's World Cup in 1998, and then convinced him to go to Iraq. In formed that he was to assassinate a former Tehran police chief, he was given an AK-47 and bullets hidden in a computer bag and sent into Iran through Iraqi Kurdistan. The Red Cross has repatriated several hundred former MEK members to Iran, and a few thousand remain at Camp Ashraf. The U.S. campaign has also been hampered by the absence of U.S. diplomats in the country, the climate of confrontation over Iran's nu clear program, and the chaotic and violent results of U.S. democracy promotion efforts in Iraq, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Af- THE OPPOSITION vs ghanistan. A U.S. attack on Iran, instead of helping the opposition, would likely consolidate support for an otherwise unpopular regime. BOSOM ENEMIES welfare economy afloat, and Iranians have vivid memories of the revo lution, the Iran-Iraq war, and Iraq's 'liberation' to dissuade them from risking their lives to challenge the status quo. Ganji and other activists say the best way to help the Iranian opposition is by publicizing the regime's human rights abuses through media that is accessible in Iran. Progress is likely to be slow and to depend on the con tinued bravery of individuals as well as the modest openings presented by Iran's restricted electoral system. In 2006, Ganji said he planned to return to Iran. TEN OUT OF SYNC: IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES O x A BLUSTERY ST. U.S. support for Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, whose 1980 invasion of Iran began a war that killed or injured nearly a million Ira- izs BITTER FRIENDS. BOSOM ENEMIES mans, had been 'regrettably short-sighted,' she said, and the United States still had 'cordial relations with a number of countries that are less democratic than Iran.' Albright went on to list areas of mutual U.S.-Iran interest and potentially greater cooperation, especially Af ghanistan, a source of refugees and narcotics that were a huge burden for Iran and, although no one knew it at the time, the breeding ground for the 9/11 attacks. Albright mentioned U.S. grievances with Iran as well, beginning with the seizure of U.S. Embassy hostages during the 1979 revolution. Even though Albright did not mention him by name, her clear reference was to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, chosen by a body of clerics who were themselves OUT OF SYNC: IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES in elected but with limited public influence in the choice of candidates. Two years later, then Iranian foreign minister Kharrazi singled out Al bright's remark when asked whether he regretted that Iran had not tried harder to restore relations while Clinton was in office. That was considered an intervention in our internal affairs and backfired in Iran.' The result was Iran Contra-the scandal in which the United States agreed to trade weapons for American hostages held by Iran-backed militants in Lebanon, and then used the profits to fund anticommunist guerillas in Nicaragua. He had great hopes for the first president Bush, who OUT OF SYNC: IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES 179 promised Iran in his 1989 inaugural address that 'goodwill begets goodwill,' an indication that Iranian help in freeing remaining U.S. hostages in Lebanon would be rewarded. But Iran 'let us know that the 180 BITTER FRIENDS, BOSOM ENEMIES planes would be interned,' Scowcroft said. The United States had feared that Iran might use the planes to attack Saudi oil fields. It was clear that Iranian intelligence officials 'were embarked on a policy of liquidating regime opponents and doing so in a very blatant way so as to intimidate other potential enemies,' Riedel OUT OF SYNC: IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES iai said. BOSOM ENEMIES Iran and was willing to talk to Iran, provided that the discussions were conducted by officials with clear authorization, not shady go-betweens such as Manucher Gorbanifar, an Iranian arms dealer who helped con coct Iran-Contra (and remained a favorite of U.S. neoconservatives). Israel was particularly worried about Iran's ballistic missile pro gram and suspected that Iran